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Impliedvolatility

Nasdaq 100: Reversal at lower Bouhmidi Band Bouhmidi - Long Reversal in play - This looks like a chartbook reversal forming also a double bottom in area of lower BB. Half hour to go it seem that we close in the Bandwidth. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Do you want to know more about the BB and apply them on your TV-Charts? Check my script here:
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by SalahBouhmidi
DAX - Intraday long reversal Bouhmidi-BandsToday we had a chartbook daytrading signal using the Bouhmidi-Bands. After testing the lower Bouhmidi-Band the market directly reversed to the upside into in BB-Bandwidth. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Do you want to know more about the BB and apply them on your TV-Charts? Check my script here:
XETR:DAXLong
by SalahBouhmidi
$BABA highest IVR in this year = bullish Iron Condor #tradingAlibaba IVR is 170 without event?! No way.. I'm literally waiting these rocket IVR days in this year! Chinese stocks are dumping hard. Alibaba Group is maybe the biggest and the best to play with some bullish IC. Max profit: $230 Probability of 50%Profit: 81% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 30% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 170 (high for ) Expiry: 49 days SETUP: IC for 2.3cr, because IVR ultra high * Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 80 Put * Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 90 Put * Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 150 Call * Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 160 Call Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200. Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.92db Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:BABA
by TanukiTrade
$USO IronCondor 72%PoP, 45% profit - gift of the day with 176IVRDon't miss the opportunity of the day! Highest IVR ETF today with the value of 173! Of course, -5 delta meaning bearish Iron Condor. SAFETY ZONES: 200MA could act as support, bullish trendline too. Max profit: $314 Probability of 50%Profit: 72% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 45% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $686 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 137-173 (ultra high for options ) Expiry: 56 days SETUP : IC for , because IVR ultra high, for 3.14cr * Sell 1 USO Jan21' 35 Put * Buy 1 USO Jan21' 45 Put * Buy 1 USO Jan21' 55 Call * Sell 1 USO Jan21' 65 Call SETUP: IC for USO, because IVR is epic high. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~150$. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 1.1db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:USO
by TanukiTrade
PYPL Weely Options PlayDescription PYPL moving up into the gap that was created following the earnings release. Not all gaps will be filled, but they give a good clue as to how supply and demand will play out. I would typically put on a call credit spread for a long position, but this low volatility, lethaly-injected environment lends to being a seller of options. I am also "hedged" with plenty of long options in case anything goes haywire. Put Credit Spread By Expiration Max loss occurs at any strike under the long put (207.5) Max gain occurs at any strike over the short put (210) SL < 210 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 11/19 207.5P SELL 11/19 210P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Looking to make 26% return on collateral by EOW. The short put is placed under the opening bar following the post-earnings gap The long call is placed 2.5 points away IAW collateral requirements, risk tolerance, and R/R. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by BarnardR
De-Annualizing IVImplied Volatility is the expected volatility of a given asset and can be used for ones advantage De-Annualizing IV allows one to apply annualized IV and alter it towards ones desired time frame As some may know, Implied Volatility or IV is an annualized figure, meaning we have to do extra work to get what we want Applying IV To gain a greater understanding of this topic we will be applying this method to SPY(461.90) as of 11/3/21 In order to get IV of our desired time, we first have to get the 1-day expected volatility and to do so we use the formula as follows IV ÷ √256(256 trading days in a year) and will be 0.1245 ÷ 16 for our case, which gives us a 1-day expected volatility of 0.00778 or .78% After getting our 1-day expected volatility we then use the formula as follows IV ÷ √256 x √Number of Trading days in period and once applied to SPY will become 0.00778 x √22 which gives us 0.036497298 or a monthly expected volatility of 3.65%. We are using 22 in our formula since there is 22 trading days in a month. Conclusion After calculating our monthly volatility we can then multiply the desired asset by it to receive the range in which this asset will most likely stay at For example, regarding SPY at 461.90 we can multiply it by 1.0365 or 0.9635 to receive the prices in which there is a 68% chance that the desired asset will stay at. Regarding SPY this means there is a 68% chance of SPY closing between 478.75 and 445.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ddcakez
2
Why Implied Volatility Is A Critical Tool For All TradersTraders and investors use different sets of tools when approaching markets. Some are fundamentalists, pouring through balance sheets, supply and demand data, and other macro and microeconomic information to predict the future prices of assets. Others have a strictly technical approach to markets, following trends and the path of least resistance of prices. Still, others combine the two to look for opportunities where fundamental and technical analysis merge to improve the chances of success. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator The primary variable determining put and call option prices The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Yogi Berra, the hall of fame catcher and armchair philosopher, once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” All market participants have the same goal, to increase their nest eggs. Projecting the future is the route to achieve their goal. Implied volatility is a tool that all market participants need to embrace as it is a real-time indicator of market sentiment. The past is history; the present is all that matters for traders and investors History depends on interpretation. When it comes to markets, Napoleon Bonaparte may have said it best, “history is a set of lies agreed upon.” An asset’s price moved higher or lower in the past because of a collection of variables viewed through a prism that leads to a collective conclusion that has broad acceptance but may not be accurate. Taking a risk-based position on an inaccurate conclusion could lead to mistakes and losses. When we consider buying or selling any asset, all that matters is the present. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level a seller is willing to accept and a buyer is willing to pay in a transparent environment, the market. Historical volatility is a map of the past price variance for asset prices Historical volatility is an objective statistical tool that defines the price variance of the past. Any disclosure document tells us that past performance is no guaranty of future performance. We must view historical volatility precisely the same way, with more than a grain of salt. Historical volatility is a guide, but remember what Yogi said, “the future ain’t what it used to be!” We calculate historical volatility by determining the average deviation from the average price over a given period. When it comes to math, the formulas are: A simple explanation of the complicated formula comes in seven easy steps: 1. Collect the historical prices for the asset 2. Compute the expected price (mean) of the historical prices. 3. Work out the difference between the average price and each price in the series. 4. Square the differences from the previous step. 5. Determine the sum of the squared differences. 6. Divide the differences by the total number of prices (find variance). 7. Compute the square root of the variance computed in the previous step. Implied volatility is a real-time sentiment indicator While we can calculate historical volatility from historical data, implied volatility is a different story. Implied volatility is the expected or projected volatility or price variance of an asset over time. We back into calculating implied volatility using an options pricing model. We can establish an implied volatility reading by entering the option value into the Black-Scholes options pricing formula or other formulas that determine options prices. If we have a put or call options price, we can solve for the implied volatility level. The Black-Scholes formula in mathematical notation is: The primary variable determining put and call option prices There are no option prices without implied volatility as it is the critical variable that determines put and call option values. Yogi also said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” The current implied volatility level is the market’s consensus perception of what volatility or price variance will be during the life of the put or call option. Observing and watching reveals the constant changes in implied volatility levels, which can be highly volatile over time. Option traders call an option’s sensitivity to changes in implied volatility Vega, which measures the change in an option price for a one-point change in implied volatility. Implied volatility is constantly changing. Yogi had another great saying, “If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be,” which rings true for implied volatility which can change in the blink of an eye. Option traders pay lots of attention to their Vega risk as the volatility of implied volatility can be…highly volatile! How’s that for a tongue twister? The three critical factors implied volatility reveals Implied volatility is a valuable tool for all traders and investors for three significant reasons: It is a real-time indicator of the market’s perception of the future price range of an asset. It can change suddenly, and changes often occur before the price of an asset reacts, making implied volatility a leading indicator. Implied volatility reflects the wisdom of the crowd, and crowds tend to make better decisions than individuals. Moreover, it is reading that reflects the present, not the past, and is a constantly changing measure of consensus forecasts for the future. As traders and investors, we exist in the present. We attempt to increase our wealth with long and short risk positions that either add or subtract from our nest egg in the future. Implied volatility is a critical measure we should understand, utilize, and always keep in our toolbox. Any project requires the right tools. Implied volatility’s value is that it reflects a snapshot of the current market’s consensus. Historical volatility depends on “Deja vu” happening “all over again.” Implied volatility is a measure that understands that the “future ain’t what it used to be.” ----- Register for our Monday Night Call using the link below. You can view this full article (with specific examples) and get early access to future articles for free using the other link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Editors' picks
ICEUS:CT1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
18
Nasdaq, 28 SEP - Elliott waves | Gann | Planetary Aspects $QQQAs expected a wave C is currently unfolding which gave us a nice profit. Price approaches the 14766 Gann level so that we may look for potential (temporary) support. Wave C is still short but since we have a lower low, it fulfils the criteria for completion, and we can look to reduce exposure to be on the safe side. It is also possible to count 5 waves down (green count), however this count can extend if wave C continues to progress. Should Nasdaq drop further, the next levels of support might be: - 14524 Gann level & wave A-C equality - Gann level 14284 - Gann level 14046 & 1.618 Fib extension of wave A. Implied Volatility is high after today’s sharp drop. Selling option premium with wide strikes can be profitable should the decline slow down from here. Correlations: DXY stalled today in a potential resistance zone. If USD cools off it will help the yield-sensitive tech sector to find temporary support zones. _______________________ www.constellations.trade In my analyses I combine Elliott waves, Gann theory, and planetary aspects to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to use options premium decay for consistent income when markets may contract and range. Open an account here if you'd like to support my work: TastyTrade America's best Options, Futures and Crypto broker start.tastyworks.com Deribit The world's most liquid Bitcoin options platform www.deribit.com Binance 10% off trading fees with this link: accounts.binance.me These abbreviations in the chart are ideas provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice: STO = sell to open BTC = buy to close BTO = buy to open STC = sell to close Disclaimer: The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
TVC:NDQ
by UnknownUnicorn12250317
$ARKK option straddle opportunitySeptember is a seasonally volatile month in the stock market and we know when the storm comes it’s usually what was hot that gets thrown around the most.. and not many ETFs have been hotter over the past few years than the ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK run by the famous Cathie Wood.. since ARKK 52WK IVR is well below the market at only 6.51%.. one way to play for more upcoming volatility is via a ATM straddle.. we’re looking at the NOV’19 ATM $120 straddle for a debit of $14.75.. we would exit at 50% profit or loss of premium, whichever comes first..
AMEX:ARKK
by Click-Capital
88% PoP #ironcondor for $BABA in chinese crash #option #optionsChinese crash credit play, because of high IVRank. My Iron Condor Hunter script have signaled a safe entry here. REASONS: 1) Confirmed bear trend This is the safe playground of IC for credit. The backtested 3 years of bullish trend changed. 2) My automatic Iron Condor Hunter script My Iron Condor Hunter script gave a reliable signal to opening IC position. To subscibe for free trial of it: please follow and requeast access for free. Max profit: $188 Probability of 50%Profit: 88% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 23% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $812 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 81 (very high) Expiry: 53 days Buy 1 BABA Sep17' 140 Put Sell 1 BABA Sep17' 150 Put Sell 1 BABA Sep17' 220 Call Buy 1 BABA Sep17' 230 Call Bearish IronCondor for 1.88cr, Tasty IVRank is extreme high (81 IVR). Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing OUTSIDE the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 100$. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto debit order for 0.66db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:BABAShort
by TanukiTrade
2
Options Prices Prediction - GMEHello everyone, to anyone who is not already familiar with the Chobotaru Indicator V1, it takes the implied volatility currently priced in GME options and gives a probability location cloud. As you can see, for the next 44 days, this is what the market thinks that this stock should do (move within the probability cloud). Options Sellers give a 20% probability that the price will touch $320 before JUN 18. You can use the indicator yourself and see if they update their prediction... MEANING ---> if you see the stock starts to move and they raise prices (and hence implied volatility increase), the market believes that price could go further.
NYSE:GME
by ZoharCho
1
How to use Chobotaru IndicatorOur indicator can now be used by everyone. There are a lot of indicators trying to predict what will be the range of the stock in the future. Some of the indicators, that are well known, are using STD of volatility like Bolinger Bands or using an advanced simulation like Monte-Carlo, and others that are using different methods. Our approach to this subject is different. There is an official volatility predictor called Implied Volatility. (I explained it in a different post) This number can be seen in the options chain in your broker platform. You don’t need to trade options to use this indicator. This indicator shows you a probability cloud, giving you the probability of the stock moving to a certain price. This can help in several ways like determine if your target price is possible, where to put stop-loss, you can also use other technical analyses, like support and resistance to choose which area is best for your trade. The sky is the limit. We tested it on 30(+/-10) days of small market cap and higher. In our testing, the price finished inside the range more than 80% of the time (the result are higher but I’m trying to stay conservative). The user can choose a different option’s time period than 30 days, but the longer the period the higher the chance for a rare event that is not currently priced in. The indicator is based on the partial differential equations from the mathematical model of options, the Black-Scholes model. In simple words, the prices of options give you some indication of how the market thinks the stock should perform. If you take the implied volatility and insert it into the indicator, you can see the probability range, transforming this data into a visual representation. What inputs do you need to enter? Instrument price – The current price of the stock or futures contract. In this example, the close price of the SPY on March 30, 2021, is 394.73 The interest rate – Searching in google: “U.S. Department of the treasury daily yield curve rates”, Use the 3-month value (of the day of the entry or day before). On 03/30/2021 the 3-month value was 0.02% Days to expire (minus trading holidays) – At the end of 03/30/2021, I searched for the option that is the closest to 30 days on the SPY. The option that ending on April 30, has 31 days, in this period we have a holiday “Good Friday”, so I subtract the original number of days from the holiday, 31-1 = 30 Implied Volatility – This number in your trading platform will usually be shown in a percentage, you need to enter a positive decimal number. In this example, the implied volatility of the option was 15.2%, the input is 0.152 The date – The last thing is the date of the entry, in this case, Day – 30, Month – 3, Year – 2021. This indicator can be used on daily bars and everything smaller than that. We recommend using it on daily bars. Try it for yourself on your charts and share your result, if you have any questions, tell us in the comments.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ZoharCho
4
SPY 400?Nothing fancy, HMA 13/30 starting to look bullish. We are still within the regression channel from last March's correction. Historically, April has a positive return for the S&P with an average return of 1.5% . SPY implied volatility is in steeper contango compared to top holdings (AAPL, MSFT, GOOG). I am looking to sell monthly straddle in SPY and buy straddles in previously mentioned tickers. Direct play on change in realized vol in SPY is less than expected compared to SPY top holdings. Disclosure: This is not financial advice I do not know what I am doing. yardeni.com/pub/stmktreturns.pdf (Not enough rep to include link)
AMEX:SPYLong
by iusebing
RUSSEL ETF 20% profit play during correction with Iron Condor One of the most highest probability of trades are: neutral Iron Condors with high Implied Volatility on large indices. (SPX, DJI, RUT) The more an indice is overbougth, than better this strategy works, as the correction also results more movement into downside. Unlike other overvalued stocks, however: the indices are not collapsing. (except for 1-2 extreme cases where immediate intervention is required, eg March 2020) I'm always trading the alternative ETFs of these indices: SPY = S&P500 = ES mini futures IWM = Russel 2000 = RT mini futures DIA = DJI = YM mini futures .etc... On Friday I've opened an IWM Iron Condor, so here are my reasons: (1) RTY1! Futures Analysis The Russel mini futures at local top hit the 3 year trendline, bluffy upside trendline permanently broke. (2) Divergence with breakdown Hard daily divergence in the last few months, my smooth RSI trendline breeaks. (3) Relative high IVR Relative Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) increases. This value, if high enough (e.g., above 45), favors neutral credit strategies like Iron Condor. In the case of indices, this is particularly rare, occurring every few months. At these times you can safely open neutral strategies (wide wings), for example: Iron Condor, Strangle. (4) My Iron Condor hunter script signal My Iron Condor Hunter indicator give me an automatic signal with safe ranges. As you see: in the past almost every time indicated the safe range successfully. (I'm not counting the 2020 Marc, every regular strategy failed in that crash). (5) Safe levels are well defined in my range I'm always defining safe price levels (based on the nearest short term high/low points). In my case these levels are well defined inside the Iron Condor Hunter range: CONCLUSION: I've opened an Iron Condor on IWM (Russel ETF) Profit target: 20% Max profit: 68$ Max loss: 332$ Tasty IVR: 13 POP: 69% Expiry: 42 days Strategy: Neutral IC Buy 1 IWM April16' 185 Put Sell 1 IWM April16' 189 Put Sell 1 IWM April16' 244 Call Buy 1 IWM April16' 248 Call Stop: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below put strikes or above call strikes. Safe levels (190,205,229) are defending my borders. Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 55% of max.profit in this case. Inside the curve I'm usually in profit. If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW, and follow my fresh ideas ( @mrAnonymCrypto on tradingview ).
AMEX:IWM
by TanukiTrade
10