ATRA No Action. This one took me a long way to get the story in a way that I believe makes sense. I incorporated earnings, which is new for me. Seems like an awful lot of work to say no action... but that is something I have to learn to be content with for long term success.
This also highlights the importance of weekly analysis. As I am drawing the trendlines I am given the mental imagery of something being limply held up by strings. Not a strong bullish signal for me.
Important
DXY (Dollar Strength Index) BearishThis fake-out was created because of the COVID Vaccin new of the company Moderna. On 26th of January there will be huge vaccin news from the biggest pharmaceutical company: Johnson & Johnson. Expect DXY to fall until the 26th and then gain some on that day and the days after!
Important: GBPUSD 5-YEAR channel Breakout! Hello Traders! Here I present to you a very important remark in ForEx GBPUSD history: the 5 year bear channel finally broke to the upside! Interesting...
The double bottom of Pound/USD is finally confirmed! We can verify that with a breakout of the upper trendline, with a 75-month Simple Moving Average Restricting any movements below it.
Now, where do prices go? The first immediate resistance is the 1.437 resistance. When broken, the next strong resistance is at 1.47.
GBPUSD... it is time! Good luck guys, have a good day!
Don't forget to like and follow for more. Thank you for reading! :D
P.S. We hit 40 followers! Thank you for your support! Cheers!
Bitcoin trend analysis and two important patternsIn bitcoin analysis, we can see two different patterns. Pattern No. 1 will be the roof triangle and then will eventually grow to $ 22,000 over the next 2 months. If the dollar rises, it can rise to $ 19,000 and form pattern number 1, but if it rises to $ 18,350 and then negatively falls to $ 16,400, pattern number 2 occurs.
LOOK BACK &SEE|2020 MOST IMPORTANT POINT|GC1! GOLD FUTURE-DAILYUnder the black horizontal lines, huge volumes.
Above the black horizontal lines, huge volumes.
Between the black horizontal lines , volumes are lower, calm.
The blue uptrend line mark the trend, general trend of the market.
But, on the 17th of September we have seen forces coming into the market to push the market down under a very important point.
Now we are at the red horizontal line which is the most important line of the year for the GC Gold Future.
We can clearly see with this simple analysis that things have changed and that the black lines, center channel is still probably the gravity center for the GC Gold Future prices.
Be careful, in case of a new uptrend the new bleu downtrend line resistance above the market price could possibly see the market pullback down again strongly.
THIS Is Why You Need Stop Losses!! - 06/17/20 RECAPHi traders,
Some days trading is harder than usual, most of the times because the SPY is indecisive or switching "sides" frequently. Wednesday was one of those days. Most of my trades went into some profit, but eventually failed. The last trade of the day in NCLH put me back into more reasonable loss for the day thanks to my 1:2 RRR I aim for.
Anyway in the video I talk about the importance of Stop-losses as I was kicked out with MORE THAN 40c SLIPPAGE in GRUB. Now imagine if I had no SL and it didn't retrace... scary stuff!
Trades:
1) GRUB - LONG @64.84, -1.31%
2) KSS - SHORT @23.68, -0.49%
3) BA - SHORT @192.3, -1.02%
4) PDD - SHORT @81.56, -0.65%
5) NCLH - SHORT @19.45, +2%
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.*
Total PnL for the day: -1.46%
Total PnL for the week: -1.52%
Good trades,
Tom | FINEIGHT
Trade Log NIFTY June 12I posted this view yesterday, June 11
1. I'll continue to assume this is consolidation and any close below 9843 will create doubts in my mind.
2. At the same time, I think, the lower end of the range is close or discovered. And NIFTY now should make attempt again towards 10200.
3. I'll wait to see action on Friday and Monday to see if NIFTY goes and takes out 9800-9843 levels.
So for today, who could have imagined the kind of day NIFTY had today? It was volatile roller coaster ride from 9560 to 9995. Anyone who thinks any human being can predict the market, should periodically check the price action today. It has the potential to make even the best oracle feel humble.
Overall, NIFTY did not close below 9843, so I do not have doubts about my view. It is confirmed that now the ride is towards the other extreme of the range, that is 10200-10300 zone. This is confirmed, and mostly Monday will confirm to the same view.
My trades today:
1. First let me say, that I was able to manage my credit spread and got out of the same without any loss.
2. Then when opening range was broken out I bought 9700 CALL and sold it for profit near end of the day.
Buying CALL is little different from my usual trading ways, but there were two strong reasons form that
1) Today was Friday, so gain by theta is not very important.
2) CALL enabled me to limit downside risk, in case NIFTY had continued on gap down.
My observations for the day:
1. NIFTY formed large candle with gain of 0.72%
2. BANK NIFTY closed 0.63%
3. INDIA VIX swung from 10% to 3%.
4. Advance Decline ratio is 29 to 20.
5. From option data, 9600-9700 is a strong support. Resistance at 10000 level.
I am not going to take this action as bullish or bearish, but I am going to assume range first of 9800 - 10300. When it breaks out / down, next leg of trade will be clear. Currently there is higher probability of breaking above 10300 looks more probable. For more, please go through my last weeks view and monthly view.
My view posted on June 07 for the week gone by
My monthly view posted start of this month
I plan to do detailed post over the weekend for next weeks preview.
FALL IN PRICE COMING - GET IT AT THE BOTTOM - CL1! - 30MN - OILThanks for your likes and shares! Much appreciated!
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Primary and secondary supports, primary and secondary resistances. The market price has been touching several times some points giving us hints on the speed of the uptrend movement. Slowing down now where the quick and slower support lines are crossing . Coupled with high volumes , at the end of the last session, the market price failed to break up . Now it is down to a crucial point where if going down further from Monday, we could see a nice fall in price.
The suggestion would be to wait until it finished its fall and get it at the bottom for a nice long direction profitable trade. Decrease your position as the market is going up. Start big.
S&P 500 - 240 - IMPORTANT POINT - 2X GOOD SHORT ENTRY POINTSThank you for your likes and shares! Much appreciated!
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The market is at a very important price which has been a reversal point lately (Fibonacci 78.6% ). This price is a strong resistance now and could become a strong support if the market moves upwards.
Upwards, the market former uptrend will be the limit where an amazing short entry point could be expected with possible nice pullback down.
In the other side, downward, if the market breaks its horizontal ranging support with a nice candlestick, there is a high probability to see the market going down further with an interesting short entry point (targeting Fibonacci 23.6%).
Timing:
From middle of next week to middle of the week after. (Wednesday to Wednesday)
NEXT WEEK IMPORTANT MOVE - DOLLAR TREE INC - 240MN - MY IDEAThank you for your likes! Well appreciated support! Please share to benefit the community. Thanks and enjoy!
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We observed that the DOLLAR TREE INC price have been going up but ranging between two very important lines.
The support blue line and the top resistance which has been at a higher level in the past.
This pressurized the price which try to get out of triangle range . Several pullbacks confirms our idea.
This has illustrated a very high pressure zone in which the market will be evolving from next week.
Next week is crucial!
We can't at the moment confirm at 100% a certain direction but the probability of seeing the market opting for the short side is higher because of the presence of a SUPER resistance above.
We can stay ready to enter :
- When one of the blue lines will be broken
- When a large candlestick will be formed .
Possibilities:
-The market could retest the support line to get some power on super pullback up, strong enough to break the resistance.
-The market could again test the resistance and break the support line . This would be the best for all traders as that support line is easier to break and is more likely to create opportunities for large profits.
Bitcoin's in an Important RangeBitcoin is currently sitting tight and within a new range after the big upward move the other day. It's a big range between $7700 and $9800 but a breakout on either side of this would represent a massive move!
A down turn would indicate the price of BTC going from $7700 all the way down to $5500 before hitting more strong resistance. An upward move would indicate the price shooting straight up to $12,000 or more! That would be the start of the Bull run 2020 - we all know it's coming, nobody knows when!
Follow carefully. ( posting it repeatedly because is imp. )follow me for more ideas till next Bitcoin halving. each and every entry exit point.
PM me if you are in loss and want some advice.
let me start boring discussion. ( but it’s very important ).
as we know only 14 days left till the next historic halving event. We need to keep watching every move.
as you can see crucial levels starting from supports 6500, 6800, 7400 and resistance levels 7740, 8100.
1. Btc is now at 7670. If it drops from the support 7450 then you can immediately exit and then wait for next sipport 6800. If it holds 6800 then you can again take entry. ( **remember when i say holds support that means minimum 6 one hour candles above that level). if it drops then take entries from 6500 support.
2. If it successfully raise and hold above 7740 and then 8100. then it will be a FOMO situation there. And price can see huge pump toward 9000 level.
3. If bitcoin remains between 7450 and 8100. We can expect mini bull run in major altcoins. like cardano( ADA ), komodo( KMD ), ontology( ONT ) and other good fundamentally strong alts.
I hope you are clear about when to enter and where to exit.
feel free to comment or contact me in PM for any doubt.
If you like my ideas and watch my previous accurate guidance then follow me for more.
Like share knowledge.
THE MOST IMPORTANT LESSONS! Lesson 9 Trading Psychology is Important
When you look at the market you should see your self. The market is a collection of buyers and sellers. You are a participant in that marketplace, and therefore you are the market. How can you understand the market without understanding yourself?
The mental landscape of a trader is extremely important and very valuable to a profitable trader. Those that do not understand this, are likely not making money in the market. Most people wanting to be traders never stop to consider this, and they think it is more knowledge about markets they need to make money. Most of the time it is what is going on in their mind that needs work.
If you think you are going to wake up one day and be a profitable trader without working on your self, you are mistaken. If you think you are going to read a few books or watch 100 videos on trading and walk into the market the following week and make money, the traders who know the value of internal work will thank you for your money!
Of course you must first understand markets, price action, the traders equation, and how to read a chart. But after that you must move on and dive into your trading psychology. It is not understanding markets that brings money into your account. It is your understanding of your perceptions of the market, awareness of your internal dialogue, thoughts, and emotions, along with your knowledge of the market. Ultimately it is your actions that are generated from these that dictate whether or not you will make money.
If you do not understand what is happening within your mind at any given time, you are unlikely to achieve consistency long term. Sure you may pick a few good trades. Anyone can find themselves in a winning trade, even those who know nothing about markets. But will they continue to perform well over a month or a year? It is very unlikely.
Trading psychology is vital to trading, whether you choose to accept it or not. The market is a paradox, a contradiction. If your mind is tied up and you are unaware, you will make poor actions in the market. Your mind must be free. Free to flow with the market, regardless of what you want or expected. You must be able to bring your mind back to the market and the necessary action right now. If not, you will be stuck within thoughts of what happened 5 minutes ago, or held by anger and frustration for what the market should be doing. If you do not devote time to understanding your mental landscape you will never grow, and never escape the mental turmoil which the market can cause, no matter how much time you devote to understanding what markets do.. For more information on how to develop this awareness or understand your self on a deeper level, see trading psychology.
Lesson 10 Allow for windfall profits
Many traders believe they must hold for a reward of twice their risk or believe they have high probability and so exit at one times the risk before the market takes it back. These concepts and ideas are more likely to hurt your performance than benefit it. The truth is, the market offers what it offers, and that's it. Sure sometimes its exactly 1x the risk or twice the risk. Other times it is much more. Cutting a winning trade just because it is reasonable, does not make it the best choice.
In fact, when you are in a position with exceptional follow through, you must allow it to flourish. In other words, you must allow it to grow into a windfall profit. It only takes 1 out of 10 of these types of trades to create a positive net result. If you cut this 1 trade short because the market has gone to twice your risk, you are only hurting yourself and your numbers.
This is like cutting a flower when it is just starting to bud. You do not allow the flower to bloom, and prevent the beauty which will soon appear. Instead you must nourish the plant, give it water, and allow it to grow into what it can be.
Cutting a winning trade short is a self inflicted wound. This is often due to fear such as fear of a reversal, or fear of giving back profits. Thoughts of getting back what you previously lost, or hanging on to what you have right now is what leads to these poor actions. Being unwilling to allow for a pullback against the position which is necessary to allow it to grow.
So how do you know when to hold and when to exit? That takes experience. What is important is your willingness to learn, and openness to allow a great trade to flourish. However there are signs which can help you identify which trades are likely to turn into a windfall profit, and those that you should take what the market offers you. For clarity and more information on this see Investing Guide.
*If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
GBP USD expecting a short termed pullbackPrice has heading down to a support zone formed by structure and .618 fib retracement level of the bullish swing that started in 2016. I would expect short termed pullback. todays GBP data are not that bad for the market to simply blow through this important level. No trade set up yet. I will update as price action develops.
Dan
NAS100 Nasdaq 100 Index An Important Week AheadNAS100: Nasdaq 100 Index - An Important Week Ahead
Nasdaq never made it to 7518, failing badly at 7495 and then breaking the first support at 7479 and then falling another 100 points to 7380 before bear closing in the last couple of hours on Friday took the index back to the 7414 line and a newly forming dynamic resistance line just above price now.
It should fall away from here back to the 7380 -7371 range on Monday. There is further support at 7355 but the pattern is negative and though it may bounce here once tested it's likely to fail a little later.
Once it fails it should fall away further to retest the 7300-7283 range and ideally to spike off the lower parallel just below here.
Any break below the lower parallel (not a spike) will turn the medium term trend to negative.
It looks like an important start to the week lies ahead.
* For fastest major market updates in real-time please check the link at top left of main page.
XAUUSD (short term) - At CRITICAL fib and long-term support lineGold price is currently sitting at a crossing point on the 50% Fibonacci line and resting upon the 1D long-term trend line. This is the deciding point whether XAUUSD will go bullish or continue it's naturally bearish move to 1275.00 region.