GBPJPY 3/26 Week 5 Analysis on a 4-hr chartStrong bearish trend.
Prices are holding around 159.800 (Red zone).
Great for a quick 2.7R:R.
Could be a role reversal level but seeing there is a strong impulsive bearish move on the 3/22 5:00 UTC, the following moves are very likely corrective moves.
Allow a few extra pips for some breathing space given that this pair is extremely volatile.
Looking to enter during the Asian session if the support holds within range.
Impulsive
GBPUSD: Correction UnderwayOne of the pairs we are looking at, is GBPUSD which had a nice impulse fall from recent highs at 1.4514 level, which now serves as an invalidation level, meaning price must not break above this region. Current bounce from recent lows, where we labeled wave 1, we see as an temporary correction in wave 2, that can ideally unfold to around 1.4227 or even 1.43002 area, where previous wave 4) of a lower degree can act as an resistance and a turning point into lower levels.
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AUDNZD: Correction UnderwayAUDNZD keeps trading higher and higher now already at 1.1344 area, after price completed an extended wave 3 with five visible sub-waves. That said as we now after wave 3 is completed, we always expect a minimum of a three wave move in wave 4, that can as in our case already be midway through it’s completion, now in the last leg (c). Wave (c) may still see more weakness, possibly towards 1.107 region, where some fibo. ratios may act as a support into higher levels.
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EURAUD: Broken Channel Suggest More UpsideOn the intraday chart of EURAUD broken channel resistance line suggests a completed corrective setback of red wave B)/2). Ideally market is now at the start of a big third wave up which can take pair even to 1.5200/1.5250 zone. However, we may see some corrective set-back towards the channel line which would be ideal for a resumption of a current trend.
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GBPUSD: Intraday ViewGBPUSD in trading lower for the last few sessions, after price recently completed blue wave C-circled, part of a higher degree pullback at 1.451 level. That said new weakness towards 1.418 area, can be wave 1, the first wave of a new bearish cycle of a higher degree, that can find temporary low around 1.413-1.415 region, where fibo. ratio of 261.8 can indicate a reversal up into wave 2 pullback.
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AUDUSD: More Upside After Any Corrective BounceAUDUSD is trading nicely higher now above 0.7600 after sharp turn up yesterday, so obviously wave 4 has finished much earlier than we thought. It was a sharp corrective retracement that put wave 5 in play now for 0.7700 projection. Despite very strong push up there is still a bearish divergence visible on the charts which means that new corrective set-back may occur; probably next week down in red wave 4).
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NZDUSD: Triangle UnfoldingRecent turn down on NZDUSD, from above 0.6800 puts even more confidence in our outlook as price is trading down into wave D-circled it seems. However, that's still only fourth leg within a triangle formation, so we need to be aware of ranged-market for another week or two, till wave E will accomplish a fourth wave pattern. ideally bears will step-in at the start of April.
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GBPUSD : Flat In The MakingOn the intraday chart of GBPUSD, we are tracking a possible flat correction in blue wave B-circled, that can reach levels around 1.4100 area, before turning to the upside in wave C-circled. That said support is seen at 1.41193 area, which can react as a turning point.
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EURJPY: More Weakness Could Be In StoreWe think that a three wave move from Mar lows on EURJPY chart seems to be completed, as price made a recent reversal from the highs where wave C-circled is labeled, towards 126 area, possibly suggesting bearish view in play. That said blue wave 1 seems to be unfolding, now already midway through it’s completion.
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AUDUSD: Correction UnderwayAUDUSD finally gave up, making this impulsive incline from wave 2 lows to wave 3 highs completed, as we now see a reversal unfolding in wave 4. That said, we expect to see more upside after this a-b-c pullback is completed in wave 4, ideally around 0.73392-0.73924 area, where previous wave fours, can act as a support, thus a reversal towards higher levels.
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GBPUSD : Correction Within DowntrendGBPUSD is turning up sharply from 1.3830, clearly with an impulsive price action visible on the lower time frame, which suggests that an extended five waves down from 1.5507 completed black wave 3. We know that after every impulse market will make a three wave retracement, so we think that corrective wave 4 bounce is now unfolding back to the termination point of a former wave, at 1.4667 where we also see 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, as well as low of 2015, so this region makes it as a very interesting resistance from where we would expect a new turn to the downside.
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EURUSD : Intraday ViewEURUSD made a nice upside move during yesterday's trading. Either we will move directly form here to the upside, or we will see red wave B) to unfold more complex towards around 1.09021 area, where support of a previous wave 4 is seen. Ideally black wave C is still underway, and more weakness will be seen, until uptrend continues higher into red wave C).
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EURGBP : Intraday Correction UnfoldingEURGBP is trading quite nicely, making a nice recovery in wave B) after five waves were made in wave A). That said, broken upper channel line is a confirmation, that wave A) is completed, and a three wave pullback is in motion in wave B), ideally towards 0.78125 area, where previous wave 4 and even some fibo. ratios could serve as a reversal towards lower levels in wave C).
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AUDNZD : More Upside Could Be In The CardsAUDNZD is trading quit nicely, recently completing a triangle of a higher degree at 1.0568, where we labeled end of wave E, and is now slowly trading to the upside. We see price now even reaching higher levels in black wave 3, as recent break out of a corrective channel line connecting from wave b highs of 2 suggest so. That said black wave 3 could be near completion, as pair is now trading in sub-wave iv-circled, which could be finished later this week.
Ideally price will continue towards fibo. ratio of 2.00, where a pullback of a higher degree, wave 4 could start to unfold.
Invalidation level is at-1.08531, as long as it holds we are looking bullish.
EURAUD : Intraday ViewEURAUD is trading sideways for the last few sessions; it's trapped in a triangle of a fourth wave that should send price lower, possibly to 1.5000 after a completed pattern. Ideally this correction will be finished in this week, maybe already in the next 24 hours as we expect final wave "e" to unfold very soon.
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NZDJPY : Basic Flat Correction UnfoldingAfter a nice impulsive decline from February highs at 79.39 down to 73.18, NZDJPY has turned higher and has since then been trading slowly and choppy, clearly in a correction, that looks to be a flat pattern. Well, this correction from the end of a five wave drop could be near completion, as price seems to be trading in its third and final leg, wave C. We still need five sub-waves in wave C, before we can expect a reversal to the downside.
Upside can be limited at the region of the previous wave iv), 76.76 level, where resistance can take place.
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USDCHF Trading In A CorrectionUSDCHF is in the corrective pullback from latest highs. After tracing 5 waves up, USDCHF at the moment trades in the A-B-C pullback with waves A and B looking completed. We expect one more push down in the wave C towards 0.9864 – 0.98769 , where previous waves four can act as a support and a reversal into higher levels.
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USDJPY Looking LowerUSDJPY keeps trading lower, making a nice impulsive decline from February highs. Currently we see price in an extended wave 3, that is near completion, as we see five visible sub-waves in it. That said we would not be surprised, if a reversal to previous black wave four at 113.39 were to happen.
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EURJPY : Intraday ViewOn the intraday structure of EURJPY we are tracking a nice bearish run from 128.173 area, that seems to be in late stages, as only wave 5 is needed for a completed five wave pattern. That said correction in wave 4 seems to be over as price made a nice move towards lower levels and could ideally continue even lower to around 124 area, where the distance of red wave 1 would equal the distance of red wave 5.
After wave 5 is completed, we may face a minimum of a three wave correction.
EURGBP : Lower Levels In ViewEURGBP is in the corrective pullback from recent highs. We are looking for red wave C to reach 0.7638 levels for a possible support. This corrective pullback is also in the A-B-C formation pattern. That said usually legs in this corrective A-B-C pullbacks reach equality, so this means leg A should travel the same distance as leg C.
AUDUSD : Upside Can Be Limited Near 0.718-0.720On the intraday chart of AUDUSD, we are still tracking a complex corrective pattern in red wave (B), that could be in late stages. as wave Y of a second zig-zag can be near completion. That said there is still some room for wave Y to fill. Price could reach 0.718- 0.719 area before turning to the downside.
Our past updates on this pair :
AUDJPY : Intraday ViewOn this cross of AUDJPY, we see a possible corrective pullback that can be in late stages. This corrective pullback in the A-B-C form is after a five wave drop from February highs, so there is a good chance for the continuation of this pair to the downside. We will wait for the confirmation of the reversal and if we see 5 waves down and a corrective pullback we might consider this structure good for a short trade.
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