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Indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategyI published 3 indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. For each indicator, I have added a visual and detailed description in English and Russian. In this post I will briefly describe these indicators and how I use them together. AFDSA indicator (Alligator + Fractals + Divergent & Squat Bars + Signal Alerts) Includes Williams Alligator, Williams Fractals, Divergent Bars, Market Facilitation Index, Highest and Lowest Bars, maximum or minimum peak of the Awesome Oscillator, and signal alerts based on Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy: Bullish and Bearish Divergent Bar Signal + Squat Bar + Green Bar + Fake Bar + Awesome Oscillator Color Change + AO Divergence. Crossing the green line (Lips) of an open Alligator. Formation of a fractal. Signal about the breakdown of the last upper or lower fractal. Signal about the appearance of a new maximum or minimum peak of AO in the interval of 140 bars from the last bar. I also added an Alligator display for the higher timeframe, for example, if the chart timeframe is 1 hour, then the higher timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the higher timeframe will be 1 day, etc. AOE Oscillator (Awesome Oscillator + Bars count lines + EMA Line) Includes the Awesome Oscillator with two vertical lines at a distance of 100 and 140 bars from the last bar to determine the third Elliott wave by the maximum peak of AO in the interval from 100 to 140 bars according to Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. Additionally, a faster EMA line is displayed. I also added display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line if the Moving Average Line values (method, length and source) are equal to the Awesome Oscillator values in the indicator settings. For example, if the chart timeframe is 1 day, then the lower timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the lower timeframe will be 1 hour, etc. VBCHL indicator (Visible bars count on chart + highest/lowest bars, max/min AO) The indicator displays the number of visible bars on the screen, including the prices of the highest and lowest bars, the maximum or minimum value of the Awesome Oscillator. The values change dynamically when scrolling or changing the scale of the chart, but with a delay of several seconds, so this feature is included in a separate indicator so as not to slow down the work of other indicators. Indicator settings In the AFDSA indicator I use the following settings: By default, the Squat Bar is colored blue, and all other bars are colored to match the Awesome Oscillator color, except for the Fake bars, which are colored with a lighter AO color. But I also enable the display of "Green" Divergent bars in the "Green Bars > Show" field. I enable the display of Alligator for higher timeframes in the "Alligator for higher timeframe > Enable" field. In the indicator style settings, I disable the display of the highest and lowest bars, maximum and minimum AO peak labels, because these labels are also displayed by the VBCHL indicator depending on the number of visible bars in the chart window. Only after opening a position, I enable all additional alerts in the “Enable all additional alerts” field (after changing this field, you need to re-create the alert for the current chart): crossing the green line of an open Alligator, formation of a fractal, appearance of a new maximum or minimum AO peak. In the settings of the AOE oscillator, I enable the display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line, setting the same values in the fields for the Moving Average Line (method, length and source) and Awesome Oscillator. In the VBCHL indicator settings, I only enable the simple display text style for labels in the "Simple display text style for labels" field. As a result, when analyzing the current chart, I immediately see all the signals on the chart, the location of the bars relative to the Alligator on the higher timeframe and changes in the Awesome Oscillator on the lower timeframe. And thanks to the VBCHL indicator, I quickly select the desired timeframe for analyzing the 5-wave Elliott impulse, focusing on the interval of 140 bars, and immediately see whether there is divergence between the maximum AO peak and the following lower AO peak in this interval.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by grigorykov
2
Stocks Put A Top In This Week! Further Downside to Come!ES (US 500) Fibs, Hourly: ES is our main index that provides helps us determine trend. You will notice that this week had a change of character. The market had taken the stairs up, but is now taking the elevator down, with sharp moves coming in a few hours to the downside. Expect more of this. ES pattern at the top is more head and shoulders like. And, unlike YM, we got a FULL All the Way Half Way Back Short this week, going back to the 50% line on Friday and selling off from there. Look for a gap up on Sunday night/Monday and a sell into strength of a 2nd test at the 5272.50 level. Our Target is all the way down at the 5158.25 level, over a 100 points away. ####TRADE ALERT#### ES (US 500- S&P500) Call: Short Entry Type: Limit, ideally better than 5262.50 no worse than 5245 SL: 5290 TP1 / TP2: 5158.25 ###################
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by CeresTrader
S&P500: Bearish reversal to the 1D MA100.The S&P500 remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.356, MACD = 47.470, ADX = 36.597) but today is having so far the strongest bearish 1D candle since December 15th 2022. Having hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up at the start of the week, this can be a technical correction to at least the 1D MA100 if the 1D MA50 breaks. Consequently we have a short term TP = 4,980. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
DAX: Overbought and in need of a technical correction.DAX is almost overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 69.159, MACD = 322.400, ADX = 30.730) and heavily on the 1W (RSI = 76.198), which suggests that the long term trend is massively bullish but on the short term a pull back below the 1D MA50 is needed in order to harmonize the supply and demand equilibrium. The index has already been rejected at the top of the HH Zone, which is a first sign for a potential pullback. Even though in the first two quarters of 2023 it spent considerable time inside this Zone before making a correction (even under the 1D MA200), this time the 'necessity' for a short term correction is greater. We are aiming for the pattern minimum of -6.42% (TP = 17,450). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by InvestingScope
CAC40 #HVF for a doubleBig Pattern = Big Moves Long consolidations = Fast Breakouts The #NIKKEI had a beautiful chart pattern and we are seeing the explosive up moves occur in that market. The French stock market - along much Europe hasn't done much for over two years But we are quickly approaching Target 1 of a large --- non conventional HVF Is it monetary stimulus or economic growth that causes the CAC to double? Don't know ... One is more desirable of course. But the same boys cheering the US stock market screaming higher after a decade plus of stimulus. zero rates and buybacks, does it matter? @TheCryptoSniper
TVC:CAC40Long
by BallaJi
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 27 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 27 March 2024 The Dollar Index, tracking against a basket of major currencies, held firm amidst a wait-and-see sentiment among investors. With anticipation mounting for the release of the PCE Price Index data crucial for gauging inflation and scheduled for Good Friday, market movement is expected to remain subdued. Despite the holiday, Top Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell and Mary Daly, are slated to provide insights, setting the stage for potential market shifts. Traders are advised to stay vigilant and strategize as economic data released over the weekend could spur heightened volatility come Monday. The Dollar Index is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. Suggesting the index might extend its gains after breakout . Resistance level: 104.45, 104.95📉 Support level:104.00, 103.65📈
TVC:DXYLong
by top_fx
DOLLAR_INDX H4 25 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 25 March 2024 The Dollar Index continued its upward trajectory for a second consecutive week, bolstered by the robust performance of the US economy and heightened expectations of interest rate hikes. The potential yield disparity between the US Dollar and other major currencies remained a significant driver, underpinning the greenback's strength. Moreover, the Fed's upward revision of economic growth forecasts for the United States instilled confidence among investors, further reinforcing positive sentiment towards the US economic outlook. The Dollar Index is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. Suggesting the index might enter overbought territory. Resistance level: 104.45, 104.95📉 Support level:104.00, 103.65📈
TVC:DXYLong
by top_fx
Divergence Unveiled: Ibovespa & S&P500“Emerging markets conclude 2023 on better note than developed markets” – S&P Global Market Intelligence. How much of this has been reflected in the respective market indices? Figure 1: Ibovespa and E-mini S&P500 Index Futures Figure 1 presents a retrospective view of the Ibovespa Index Futures (IND1!) and E-mini S&P500 Index Futures (ES1!) since the onset of the pandemic. While the indices initially traded in tandem, a noticeable deviation emerged since the middle of 2021. The IND Futures to ES Futures ratio testing long-term resistance at 25 raises questions about a potential rebound or breakout to the downside. Let's delve into the methodologies of these two index futures to gain insights into their recent divergence. Index Methodology and Weightings Figure 2: Top 10 Constituents of Both Indices Examining the top 10 constituents of both indices in Figure 2, we observe fundamental differences. Despite their similarities as float-weighted benchmarks for large-cap stocks in their respective countries, the Ibovespa Index comprises 86 stocks compared to the SP500's 500. This fundamental distinction results in a significantly larger total weight for the top 10 constituents of the Ibovespa Index, suggesting that IND future prices are more susceptible to the performance of its leading components. Ibovespa Driven by Global Commodity Prices Figure 3: Ibovespa vs Brent Crude Oil, Nickel, and Iron Ore Dominated by the Energy, Financials and Basic Materials sector, the combined weight of VALE SA and PETROBRAS holds significant influence. While VALE SA is the largest producer of iron ore and nickel in the world, PETROBRAS is heavily involved in the petroleum industry. Their earnings are likely to increase following an increase in the traded prices of iron ore, nickel, and crude oil, respectively. Positive correlations with Nickel, Iron Ore, and Crude Oil Futures prices indicate periods marked in grey boxes since the pandemic, where fluctuations in commodity futures potentially explain observed patterns in IND prices. Figure 4: Global Commodity Index Hence, given IND1!'s demonstrated sensitivity to commodities, understanding the general trajectory of commodities becomes paramount. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) provides an overview for commodities. In Figure 4, the GSCI acts as a good proxy for the commodities cycle and direction, here we observe a 30% correction from the peak, erasing some of the gains derived from the post-pandemic recovery and the Russia-Ukraine war. However, since the beginning of 2024 we see signs of a potential trend higher with the index starting to creep higher. Figure 5: Bullish Trends Observed on Multiple Commodities Is this just part of the usual price volatility for commodities or is the move higher significant? A detailed scrutiny of recent price movements in Figure 5 reveals a bullish outlook for all three previously examined commodities, relevant especially to the Ibovespa Index. The breakout from an ascending triangle in Brent Crude Oil Futures, the price rebound from historical support in Nickel Futures, and the testing of the upside trendline in Iron Ore Futures collectively indicate a prevailing bullish bias, perhaps suggesting more to the broader move higher for commodities. Are Lower Rates Better? Figure 6: Changes in Rates and USDBRL on Ibovespa The Financial Sector, with significant weight in the index, is examined. While higher interest rates expand profit margins of financial institutions, extended periods of tight monetary policy can expose vulnerabilities and increase loan losses. Since August 2023, Brazil’s Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Copom, has had five consecutive rate cutes up to a cumulative total of 250 basis points while the market continues to alter bets on the Fed’s first rate cut. Intriguingly, while interest rate parity would suggest a strengthening USDBRL, the observed weakening suggests a unique deviation. Furthermore, as the Fed gains more confidence, evidenced by each data print, the likelihood of impending rate cuts becomes more apparent. Conversely, the outlook for further cuts by Copom is less clear due to persistently high inflation. Interpreting these factors collectively points towards a weaker USDBRL and a correspondingly stronger IND1!; as suggested by the historical inverse relationship between Ibovespa and USDBRL observed in Figure 6. Additional Support for Ibovespa Figure 7: Brazil’s Growing Net Exports The rolling average of the net exports, although exhibiting some degrees of seasonality, seems to be a leading indicator of the IND prices. The reversal and positive trend in the rolling average of net exports since 2015 aligns with the climbing IND prices, indicating substantial support from Brazil's trade balance. EM Still an Attractive Option Figure 8: Comparing Both Index Futures’ RSI Figure 8 brings to light yet another noteworthy point, using the ES1! as a proxy for the Developed Markets (DM) and the IND1! as a proxy for Emerging Markets (EM), we see the DM significantly overbought relatively to the EM. Hence, we argue that there is further room for the EM Index to grow. Putting into Practice Figure 9: Setting up the Trade Looking at a shorter timeline, Figure 9 unfolds a compelling narrative marked by a recent decisive breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This breakout, coupled with the notable reversal in commodity prices, Brazil’s improving balance of trade, a weaker USDBRL, and the RSI not yet overbought; we lean bullish on the IND1!. To express this view, we can long the Ibovespa Index April 2024 Futures (INDJ4) at the current price level of 129,070. • We can set the take profit by adding the difference between the neckline and the bottom of the head (24,695), to the neckline (121,980). This puts our take profit at 146,675 and a hypothetical gain of: 146,675 – 129,070 = 17,605 points. • Likewise, we can set the stop loss at the neckline (121,980), which brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of: 129,070 – 121,980 = 7,090 points. • Each point is equivalent to 1 BRL. Overall In summary, understanding the intricate dynamics between global commodity prices, monetary policies, and trade balances provides valuable insights for anticipating the trajectory of the Ibovespa Index Futures in the evolving financial landscape.
BMFBOVESPA:IND1!Long
by inspirante
1
DXY : A bull run?Before anything , I have spent 8 years navigating the financial markets, with Level 3 CFA and a Master's in Finance under my belt, I've seen my fair share of trends. The value of the US Dollar Index is influenced by several factors, including decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed), US government actions, and the overall health of the US economy. The Fed's monetary policy, statements by the US administration, and US economic data all play a role in how strong the US dollar is compared to other currencies. and you can check this link and take a look on the technical bias: www.investing.com As we can see a Resistance level at 104.42-104.45 and a Support level powered by a fair value gap on daily time frame at 103.2-103.8.
TVC:DXYLong
by theegxtrader
DAX (DAX Index): Waves of uncertainty 🌊DAX (DAX Index): XETR:DAX We recognize that our analysis might diverge from other analysts', but our assessment clearly indicates that the DAX is currently in an overarching Wave 4, visible on the weekly chart within a multi-year scenario. This holds unless we surpass the 18,000 level. If we move beyond 18,000, a reevaluation and recount would be necessary. Until then, we anticipate a decline in the DAX over the coming weeks, months, and possibly years. The exact timing, whether it rises or falls, cannot be pinpointed to a specific year. However, it's important to note that as long as the DAX doesn't exceed 138%, or the 18,000 mark, we expect to be in an Expanded Flat scenario. This aligns well with our expectations for Wave C or the overarching Wave IV, which should fall below Wave (A), fitting the pattern where both B and C waves overshoot in an Expanded Flat. Examining the 4-hour chart, we encounter the same scenario. Without flipping this key level, no significant change is expected. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts suggest an imminent rise, not immediately obvious on the daily or weekly charts, predicting a climb to around 17,500 euros before a downturn in the DAX. We do not anticipate an immediate reversal today or tomorrow but expect a final upward impulse before a corrective move downwards.
XETR:DAXShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
DXY (DOLLAR) IS TRYING TO RECOVER, (READ CAPTION)The dollar is trying to recover in today's trading from the US Federal Reserve's strike The US dollar achieved a modest rise during trading on Thursday, as the green currency attempted to recover from the losses incurred last session as a result of negative federal developments. In this regard, the dollar incurred strong daily losses at the end of yesterday’s session, estimated at about 0.43%, affected by the less stringent statements of US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, which he made yesterday evening, as Jerome Powell said that postponing the interest rate reduction step may harm the US economy, It is expected that the interest rate reduction cycle will begin in the second half of this year, while hinting that despite the strong conditions in the labour market and the outstanding performance of the US economy, this will not prevent the US Federal Reserve from taking interest rate reduction measures. This coincided with the pressures facing the dollar at that time immediately after the release of economic forecasts by the US Federal Reserve, which indicated the possibility of reducing US interest rates three times this year, which means that the US Federal Reserve did not take into account the rise in inflation rates during the past two months, and here it is worth noting. Pointing out that the markets now see a 65% chance that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at the June meeting, according to the performance of tracking federal interest rates issued by the CME Group. If you like this informative data and technical analyse please support my ideas and follow thanks for kindness.
TVC:DXYLong
by Alexview009
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 22 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 22 March 2024 The Dollar Index, tracking the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rallied following the release of better-than-expected US economic data, bolstering confidence in the Federal Reserve's optimistic outlook. With US Initial Jobless Claims declining to 210,000, surpassing expectations, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirming the strength of the labor market, investor sentiment favoured The US Dollar. Meanwhile, rising US Treasury bond yields further reinforced the Dollar's upward momentum, reflecting heightened market confidence in the US economic outlook. The Dollar Index is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. Suggesting the index might extend its gains after breakout. Resistance level: 104.00, 104.50📉 Support level:103.20, 102.55📈
TVC:DXYLong
by top_fx