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SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash. *Equities, Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Energy, GBPUSD, and EURUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up once again. Fears of nuclear war being exacerbated by resolute threats from Putin and desperate social media pleas by people like Elon Musk are pushing investors toward DXY and US Treasury notes and bonds and away from Risk-On assets. The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) ordered $300m worth of Nplate (a radiation sickness drug) as part of an ongoing long term defense plan against the threat of nuclear warfare . It's hard not to think that the timing of acquiring this medication vs chemical, biological or infectious disease medication isn't coincidental; but the HHS said it was just a routine purchase as part of a longer term plan. In the short to medium term it's reasonable to expect more supply chain disruptions as a result of Russia's war with Ukraine worsening rather than improving. OPEC+ cutting oil production heading into the European winter is another factor that contributes to the seemingly inevitable decline into a global recession. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently trending down at ~$3615 and is still technically testing both $3658 minor support + the minor descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3635 as support, if it breaks below then the next support (minor) is at $3617. Volume is currently Moderate (high) and on track to favor sellers for a third consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3805, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 36 and is still technically testing 38 support, if it loses this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~32. Stochastic is currently bearish for the second consecutive session and is trending down at 63 as it approaches 48 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at -85 after being rejected at the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance at ~-83; if it breaks below -87 it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 28 as Price is falling, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at the minor descending trendline from July 2021 (~$3635) then it will have to close above $3658 minor support if it's going to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . The Employment Situation was released this morning and 263k nonfarm workers were added to the economy in September while Unemployment edged back down to 3.5% from 3.7% in August. The 17th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 2.9% today compared to 2.7% on 10/05 . Cleveland Fed President Mester tried to warn us of rising Unemployment yesterday and it came down today instead, maybe the Federal Reserve is hiring thousands of nonfarm workers to get together and figure out how to bring down inflation. NY Fed President Williams said today that he envisions another aggressive rate hike in November (likely 75bps) and that he too sees a slowdown in job markets in 2023 accompanied by higher interest rates and lower inflation . In response to the oil production cut by OPEC+, The White House Admin tapped into the SPR yet again, bringing its total emergency oil reserves down to the lowest they've been in forty years . With midterm elections coming up in the USA, it's hard not to see this move by the White House as politically motivated. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently testing $3658 minor support + the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3633 as support after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume remains High (low) and has favored sellers in the past two sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3605, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38 support after breaking below the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41. Stochastic crossed over bearish today and is trending down at 78 as it approaches 76.29 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD is currently trending down at -81 after being rejected by -76.22 minor resistance and is on the verge of crossing over bearish if it gets below -86; it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-80 as support. ADX is currently completing a trough and beginning to trend up slightly at 28 as Price is rejected by the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. If Price is able to bounce here at the weak descending trendline from July 2021 (~$3633) then it will have to close above $3658 minor support in order to be able to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.
S
by dailytaguy
4
DXY Daily TA BearishDXY Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash . *Treasuries (excluding the 30 yr Bond) and the Dollar are correcting after a bullish summer fueled by supply chain woes and recession fears. Supply chain woes have not been remediated but there is an element of the Bullwhip Effect that should be considered and that is the excess supply that can come shortly after an abrupt slow down in demand, this could lead to deflation which would naturally (yet artificially) reduce inflation. The recessionary fears on the other hand are starting to wane with every remotely bullish economic data point that is reported, speculators are even already betting on a 50bps rate hike in September. Just today Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that he would like to see EOY FFR at 3.9% and 4.4% by the end of 2023, he doesn't actually have a final vote on this but it's worthy of mention considering he has been rather dovish in recent years. Both money markets and Fed members have acknowledged that the EOY target for FFR in 2022 is 3.25%-3.75% (technically 3.15%-4%), so if the current range is 2.25%-2.5% (current effective rate is 2.3%) it would require 100bps or more over the next three Fed meetings in September, November and December to get to 3.25%-3.75% EOY FFR. As of now the most likely scenarios are: September 50-75bps, November 50-75bps and December 25-50bps. More clarity will arrive at the end of this month with PCE numbers due on 08/26 and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27. In other news, Disney reported beats on Q3 earnings and revenue but forecasted slower subscriber growth in 2024. Key dates remaining this week: PPI report at 830am EST 08/11 .* Price was rejected by the descending trendline from 07/14/22 and is currently trending down at ~$105.20; it is still technically testing the 50 MA as support at ~$105.58. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $106.87, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 43 after bouncing at 39 and is still technically testing the uptrend line from July 2020 as support at ~45. Stochastic remains bearish for a third session and is currently testing 24 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 0 support with no signs of trough formation, if it breaks through this support then the next support is at -0.38. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 21 as Price continues, this is mildly bearish; if ADX can start trending up as Price continues to fall this would be bullish. If Price is able to defend support at the 50 MA (~$105.58) then it will have to break above the descending trendline from 07/14/22 at ~$105.75 in order to retest $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.70.
T
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXY daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% DXY, 70% Cash. *DXY, US 10 Year Treasury Bonds and VIX are down while Equities, Cryptos, Commodities, Futures, GBPUSD, EURUSD and 30 Year Treasury Bonds are all up. With expectations of a federal funds rate above 4% in 2023 it's starting to get to that time where investors ask themselves when the continued rates hikes and impending Fed-forced recession will be priced in. Macroeconomic factors aside, geopolitical uncertainties mainly involving Russia and China pose adverse risks in the near-term to medium-term. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Member Loretta Mester speaks twice on 10/06; September US Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07; FOMC Members Kashkari, Waller and Williams speak on 10/07; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently trending down at ~$110.40 as it approaches a test of $110 minor support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $114.70, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing 49.10 minor support and is on the verge of testing the uptrend line from July 2020 at 47.47 as support if it continues down. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough as it tests 9.02 support; if it doesn't bounce here it will likely tests max bottom. MACD crossed over bearish today and is currently trending down at 0.90, the next support is at 0.65. ADX is currently trending down at 32 as Price is seeing selling pressure, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce at $110.02 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the upper trendline of the ascending channel from October 2008 at $114.70 resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $110.02 minor support , it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$108.80 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $111.55.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% SPX, 35% Cash. * S&P September US PMI came in at 52 compared to 51.5 and beating the consensus estimate of 51.8. Though marginal, September PMI increasing as DXY continues to go up and inflation remains high implies that the demand outlook improved slightly since August, which is odd considering that many central banks continue to raise key interest rates around the world. The best explanation thus far is that reopening effects are still at play. Rumors of a Russian nuclear weapons convoy and the world's largest submarine with nuclear weapon capabilities being on the move broke earlier today . Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Member Loretta Mester speaks twice on 10/06; September US Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07; FOMC Members Kashkari, Waller and Williams speak on 10/07; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently continuing to test $3658 minor support for what is now the seventh consecutive session and managed to close back above it in today's session. Volume is High (low) and broke a two day streak of seller dominance by favoring buyers in today's session; Price is currently trading in the fourth largest supply/demand zone. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3728, this is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~33 (this is bullish), if it breaks above it will likely test the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 32 but is still technically testing 18.22 resistance; the next resistance is at 48. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -108 after forming a trough at -110, although it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-83 it would have to break above ~-91 to crossover bullish. ADX is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 31 as Price is seeing buying pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment as it signifies a potential trend change. If Price is able to close above $3658 minor support for a second consecutive session then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price breaks back down below $3658 minor support , it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3658.
S
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Neutral BullishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% DXY, 40% Cash. * US September PCE price index increased 0.3% from August, and Core PCE increased by 0.6% . DXY, US Treasuries, Gold, Agriculture, GBPUSD and Cryptos are up while VIX, Equities, Equity Futures, EURUSD and Energy are down. In Vladimir Putin's speech today he announced the 'formal' annexation of four regions in Ukraine , many believe this is to allow Russia to use chemical or nuclear weapons as part of Putin's promise to "... defend our land with all the powers and means at our disposal”. Putin also continued painting the narrative of the West as Satanic dictators in hopes of bolstering that perspective amongst Russia's people and allies; he also placed direct blame on the West for sabotaging the Nordstream Pipeline earlier this week. In Putin's words about the liberties and freedoms people have in the West, one can hear the Russian Orthodox directorship of Moscow's Patriarch Kirill who recently claimed that the Russian war dead have had their sins forgiven. One thing that Putin mentioned that is agreeable is that the USA is the only country to have used nuclear weapons on another country, whether Putin's Russia is the second, only time will tell. Short story long, Putin appears to be building up the necessary ingredients to officially start World War 3. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/03; September Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07.* Price is currently trending down at ~$112 after being rejected by $114.63 resistance, the next support (minor) is at $110.02. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $111.40, this margin is bearish. RSI is currently trending up at 60.51 after bouncing off of 59.17 support; the next resistance (minor) is at 70.28. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 29 as it approaches a test of 24.14 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending down at 1.19 as it's still technically testing 1.24 resistance, the next support is at 0.64. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 36 as Price is seeing a downward correction, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the channel from October 2008 at ~$114 as resistance which will likely coincide with a retest of $114.63 resistance as well. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $111.50.
T
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . Chicago Fed President Charles Evans mentioned yesterday that FFR will likely top out around March of 2023 . DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are finally down today while Equities, Futures, Commodities, Cryptos, EURUSD and GBPUSD are all up. I think it's safe to say that this price action is in large part a technical correction due to DXY being a bit overbought. Key Upcoming Dates: Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30; S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/03; September Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07.* Price bounced off of $3658 minor support (level has been revised since last TA) and is currently trending up at ~$3718, the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume is currently High (low) and on track to break a six day streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3850, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 36 after bouncing off the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~32, the next resistance is at 38. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 13 as it approaches a test of 18 resistance. MACD remains bearish but is currently trending sideways at -100 as it is begins to form a trough, it is still technically testing -76.22 minor support and the uptrend line from March 2020 (~-80). ADX is currently trending up at 27 with no signs of peak formation as Price tests this critical minor support ($3658), this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to continue the bounce then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $3658 minor support , it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3658.
S
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXY daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% DXY, 10% Cash. *Equity Futures, Agriculture, Metals and EURUSD are down to start the week while DXY, US Treasuries, Energy and Crypto are up. As long as the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate keeps going up and Russia keeps escalating the war in Ukraine, DXY will likely keep going up. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.* Price is currently trending up at ~$113.78 after briefly testing $114.62 resistance earlier in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $108.84, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 77.21 and is beginning to form a soft peak as it approaches 81.84 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 96 and is beginning to form a soft peak as it still technically tests 88.40 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.16 as it approaches 1.24 resistance with no signs of peak formation. ADX is currently trending up at 35 as Price continues going higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to break above $114.62 resistance then the next likely target is a retest of $119.88 resistance for the first time since January 2002. However, if Price is rejected here at $114.62 resistance, it will likely retest $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $107.91.
T
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% SPX, 85% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH. Equities and Futures continue to plummet after a hawkish FOMC meeting has investors bracing for more rate hikes in 2023. Meanwhile, Commodities, Cryptos, DXY, EURUSD, VIX and US Treasuries are either up or flat. Very 2022. Unfortunately, with Putin's latest recruitment efforts and nuclear/chemical warfare posturing it's starting to feel like that time when Russia/Ukraine headlines may another run at being market catalysts. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23; September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.* Price is currently trending down at ~$3767 as it risks breaking down out of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3825 if it's unable to stop going lower in today's session. Volume is currently Moderate and on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4025, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI has officially broken below the uptrend line from 01/27/22 and is currently testing the uptrend line from August 2015 at 32 as support, the next support (minor) is at 28.63. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 5 as it approaches max bottom with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -68 as it approaches -76.22 minor support which will likely coincide with a retest of the uptrend line from March 2020 (when the Fed started QE and 0%-0.25% FFR) at ~-78. ADX is currently trending up at 22 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish; should ADX get above 25 and Price continue to go down, this would be very bearish and would increase the likelihood of a retest of $3500 minor support for the first time since November 2020. If Price is able to resist going any lower in today's session and then follow that up with a Bullish Engulfing Candle in tomorrow's session, then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3825 as resistance . However, if Price continues selling off, it will likely retest $3707 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3825.
S
by dailytaguy
SP500 INDEX PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (REVERSAL!)Overall evaluation of the SP500 is bearish within a 1-2Y time frame mini trend, but not on the grand picture. Greetings everyone, we dumped very hard this past few days but this is a sign of a potential reversal. The fact that the candle closed as a DRAGONFLY DOJI , this is a warning for all shorters to consider that the bulls are now entering the market. The proper way to trade this signal is to wait for confirmation on the next daily candle, but seeing as how it is a text-book perfect dragonfly doji on any manual you can find, this is especially stronger in a daily time frame. We will probably get rejected again on the moving averages after this mini-trend change. The catalyst for the mini dump we had today was a negative sentiment report from U.S. Michigan. ------ TIP: SP500 also had a reverse hammer on the hourly charts followed by a green candle -- also called as a bullish harami. ------ Like the update? Boost it, comment on it, share it! Bookmark it, save it, its yours for free!
VLong
by Wamses
2
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash . *FOMC WATCH. This week is already off to a volatile start with Equities starting in the red and currently attempting to close in the green. Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Energy, DXY and US 10yr Bonds are either flat or up while VIX, EURUSD, US 30yr Bonds and Gold are flat or down. Yesterday on CBS 60 Minutes, US President Biden publicly sent a message to Russian President Putin urging him not to resort to nuclear or chemical warfare in Ukraine and that the West would respond in kind if he were to; meanwhile, Putin is trying to recruit more Russian volunteers to fight in Ukraine. Key Upcoming Dates: US August Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 09/20; 13th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 09/20; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.* Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3850 as support. Volume is currently Low rack to favor buyers if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4090, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways as it tests 38.06 support, if it breaks below this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~32. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough as it tests 18.32 support. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -50 with no signs of trough formation, it is still technically testing -43.84 support; if it loses this support then the next support (minor) is at -76.22 and would likely coincide with the uptrend line from March 2020. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 21 as Price continues falling, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down below this level then it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially going lower to test $3508 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $3938.
S
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . All eyes are on the big FOMC statement at 2pm on 09/21. The big volatility and volume surge today was largely due to a whopping $3.2t OpEx (options expiration) . The UofM Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 59.5 compared to 58.2 in August, reflecting a slightly more optimistic consumer heading into Q4. Equities, Cryptos, Futures, US 10Y Treasury, DXY and Agriculture Commodities are all down or flat while VIX, 30Y Treasury, EURUSD, Precious Metals and Oil are up. Key Upcoming Dates: US August Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 09/20; 13th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 09/20; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.* Price finished the day at $3873 after briefly testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3850) as support. Volume is High (high) was the highest since 06/17/22 due to a massive OpEx and favored sellers for a second consecutive session today. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4100, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down below the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at ~40 and testing 38 support with no signs of trough formation; the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 (~32). Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 26, the next support is at 18.32. MACD is currently testing -43.84 support with no signs of trough formation after a rejected bullish crossover attempt at the weak uptrend line from March 2020 (-22) as support; if -43.84 support doesn't hold then the next support is the strong uptrend line from March 2020 at -76.22 minor support. ADX is trending up slightly at 20 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then the next likely target is a retest of $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely formally retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3850 as support before potentially retesting $3706 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
S
by dailytaguy
2
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. *August CPI surprised to the upside by increasing 0.1% to finish 8.3% higher than the year before compared to 8.1% consensus estimates, sending Equities, Cryptos, Commodities, Euro and Futures into the red. Today's winners are once again a combination of DXY, US Treasuries and VIX. Although it was minor, CPI going up rather than down is still a blow to the "inflation has peaked" crowd and is likely to inspire the Fed to go with a 75bps (or potentially higher) FFR hike on 09/21. Key Upcoming Dates: The Merge (Ethereum) at ~11pm EST 09/14 ; US August Retail Sales at 830am EST 09/15; 12th GDPNow US Q3 US GDP estimate 09/15; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 09/16; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending down at ~$3960 as it breaks below the 50 MA at ~4k support and is on the verge of testing $3938 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to break a four day streak of buyer dominance if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3911, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 42 after being rejected by 53 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at 38 support. Stochastic remains bullish but is currently trending down at 65 after forming a peak just below 76 resistance at 68, if it breaks below 60 it would be a bearish crossover; the next support is at 48. MACD remains bearish as it continues testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-23 and is currently trending down at -26; if support from the uptrend line is lost, the next support is at -11.45. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 20 as Price is falling, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX can form a trough as Price continues to fall, this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce off of $3938 minor support then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$4k psychological resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $3938 minor support , it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3860 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4k.
S
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% SPX, 30% Cash. *Equities Futures, Precious Metals, EURUSD and Cryptos are up slightly while DXY and US Treasuries are down before market open this week. All eyes will be on August CPI this Tuesday, if it comes in at consensus (8.1%) or lower, markets will likely rally in the near term; however, in the event that CPI surprises to the upside, it's reasonable to expect a reactionary sell-off. Key Upcoming Dates: August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; The Merge (Ethereum) at ~8pm EST 09/14; US August Retail Sales at 830am EST 09/15; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 09/16; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending up at $4067 as it attempts to break above the 50 MA at ~$4030; the next resistance is at $4175. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers in the last three sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3890, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 51 as it approaches a retest of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 48 resistance with no signs of peak formation, the next resistance is at 76. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up slightly at -30 as it attempts to form a bullish crossover by getting above ~-15.50 (which coincides with -11 resistance). ADX is currently trending down at 20 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to flip 50 MA resistance to support at ~$4030 then the next likely target is a retest of $4175 resistance . However, if Price breaks back down below the 50 MA at ~$4030, it will likely retest $3938 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $4030.
S
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% SPX, 85% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . Equities and Cryptos continue to sell off in favor of DXY and US Treasuries as Russia halts the Nordstream natural gas pipeline indefinitely (renewing fears of a brutal European winter energy crisis). Key Upcoming Dates: 10th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 09/07 ; 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07 ; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; The Merge (Ethereum) at 8am EST 09/14; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending down at ~$3908 as it risks losing $3938 minor support; the next support is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3875. Volume is currently Moderate (high) and is on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session if it closes today in the red; if this happens then sellers will have dominated six of the last seven sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4065, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 35 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 01/27/22 as resistance at 38 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~31. Stochastic remains neutral and continues to trend sideways at max bottom for what is now seven consecutive sessions. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -36 with no signs of trough formation, the next support is at -44. ADX continues to trend sideways at 24 for a twelfth consecutive session as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will have to turn $3938 minor resistance back to support before it can continue higher to retest the 50 MA as resistance at $4k psychological resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3875 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
S
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA Neutral BullishDXY Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% DXY, 40% Cash. *After briefly touching $110 minor resistance in Friday's session, the DXY will attempt to retest the next resistance between $112 (Weekly resistance) and $114 (Daily resistance). The last time the DXY tested $112 Weekly resistance was in 2000. If the Fed raises FFR by 75bps on 09/21 this will push it to 3% and may serve as a catalyst for DXY to keep surging higher. A few Fed members have openly suggested taking FFR to 4% or above by early 2023, should this happen the stage is all but set for DXY to keep going higher. Key Upcoming Dates: 10th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 09/07 ; 6th Beige Book at 2pm EST 09/07; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently retesting $110 minor resistance for the first time in 20 years. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $108, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 68 after peaking at 69, the next resistance is at 82 and the next support is at 59. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 91, it's still technically testing 88 support. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at .82 but is still technically testing .65 resistance, if it can break above .65 the next resistance is at 1.24. ADX is trending up slightly at 28 as Price continue to push higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to break above $110 minor resistance then it will likely retest between $112 Weekly resistance and $114 Daily resistance for the first time since 2000. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $108 support before potentially retesting the 50 MA at ~$107 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $108.81.
T
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% SPX, 85% Cash. *BOUNCE WATCH. Equities continued to take a plunge today as Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester mentioned that she would like to see rates above 4% by year end and for most (if not all) of 2023. In one of my previous analyses I incorrectly mentioned that only three Fed members voted on Federal Funds Rate (FFR), it is in fact 12 Fed members (the 7 governors, the New York Regional Fed President and then 4 alternating Reserve Bank Presidents) which comprise the FOMC and vote on FFR. Loretta Mester is one of them. Markets are eagerly waiting to see the August Unemployment Rate in Friday's Jobs Report, if it comes in flat or lower, 75bps will likely become the preferred option come 09/21. However, if there is an uptick in Unemployment a 50bps rate-hike on 09/21 would still likely be on the table. Additional guidance will be provided by August's CPI on 09/13. Key Upcoming Dates: 9th GDPNow US GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/01 ; August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13.* Price is currently trending down at $3954 (after breaking below the 50 MA at $4k psychological support) and is technically retesting $3938 minor support. Volume is High and has favored sellers for four consecutive sessions, this is mildly bullish because of the . Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4190, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 37 and is technically testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at 38 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -5 with no signs of trough formation as it quickly approaches a test of -11.45 support (which would likely coincide with the uptrend line from March 2020). ADX remains trending sideways at 23 as Price continues to fall, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce off of $3938 minor support then it will likely retest the 50 MA as resistance at ~$4k psychological resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $3938 minor support , it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3880 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4k.
S
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% SPX, 75% Cash. *Equities, Equity Futures and Gold are all slightly down to start the week while Cryptos, VIX, Energy and US Treasuries are up and DXY has stayed relatively flat. The Risk-Off reaction to Jerome Powell's hawkish comments in Jackson Hole last Friday is continuing into the start of this week. Financial markets will likely stay choppy leading up to the Jobs Report on on September 2nd and CPI on September 13th; both of these data points will provide guidance regarding whether the Fed will increase FFR by 50bps or 75bps on September 21st. Meanwhile Europe is facing what is likely to be a cold winter marked by energy rations and high prices, this is something to keep an eye on as it has the potential to exacerbate global recession fears. Key Upcoming Dates: August Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 08/30 ; 9th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/01; August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02.* Price is currently trending down at ~$4050 after breaking below the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$4145, it's fast approaching a retest of the 50 MA at ~$4k as support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to favor buyers in today's session, after favoring sellers in last Friday's, if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4254 minor resistance, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI continues to trend down at 43 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at 38 support. Stochastic is currently neutral and trending sideways at 10, the next resistance is at 18 and the next support at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at 23 with no signs of trough formation as it still technically is testing 33 support. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 23 as Price continues to fall, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely see a bit of resistance at $4100 before it aims to retest $4175 resistance . However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$4k psychological support and potentially lower to retest $3938 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4100.
S
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% SPX, 53% Cash . *I incorrectly mentioned that PCE numbers would be released today, they are scheduled for release tomorrow at 830am EST. The 2nd US Q2 GDP estimate was reported today at -0.6% compared to the previous Advanced estimate of -0.9% , the third and final Q2 estimate will be reported on 09/29/22. Equities, Cryptos and Energy are up while VIX, DXY, US Treasuries and Commodities (aside from Energy) are all down or flat. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made a pitch for more frontloading to bring down inflation and mentioned that he'd like to see EOY FFR at 3.75%-4%. Bullard isn't a voting member on the rates but his view could gain momentum depending on tomorrow's July PCE report and August's Jobs + CPI numbers. The Risk-On appetite seems to be growing ahead of the anticipated speech by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Market consensus is that Powell will remain hawkish but tomorrow's PCE numbers may inspire a more dovish tone regarding end of year expectations. Key Upcoming Dates: US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26 ; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26 ; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 (Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 10am EST on 08/26).* Price is currently trending up at $4199 and is still technically testing $4175 support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers in both of the last two sessions as Price tests $4175 support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4290, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 56.73 after forming a trough at, and bouncing off of, 52.68 support. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 12 as it approaches 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 55.35 minor support. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to close above $4175 in tomorrow's session, it will likely retest $4254 minor resistance before potentially retesting the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target would be a retest of the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$4100 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two b2b closes above) $4175.
S
by dailytaguy
2
Nifty level tomorrow We see today a good buy in nifty if we calculate total move of nifty thn nifty can move more thn 300 points today now what for Tomorrow?? We see today close of nifty was below 17597 (17577) we make our Tomorrow view was bearish due to closing now we are bullish in nifty / buy nifty above 17597 bcs if it break this level thn it make a good bullish head &shoulder after that our target 17635 17691 17744 Sl 17575 Sell nifty below 17559 Target 17520 17490 17455 Sl 17600 See our view was bearish for opening bcz of closing if it crossed the level of 17597 thn we are bullish but before that we are bearish
NSE:NIFTY
by devved19
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * The Fed Minutes confirmed preexisting knowledge that inflation is still the primary concern for the economy (making this release a low impact event) and that more downsizing of the Fed balance sheet + another 50bps is the baseline scenario for the next FOMC meeting on 09/21. Fed Staff (FOMC) agreed that 3.4% is the current peak target rate for FFR, the current range is 2.25%-2.5% implying that perhaps two 25bp rate hikes will follow September's anticipated 50bps hike to end the year. Some participants (Fed members) commented on how commodities (primarily energy and food) are likely to keep inflation up in the near term, some Participants mentioned that the policy adjustments are already seeing a substantial effect but almost all agreed that most of the effects haven't been felt yet, and most participants agreed that they support rate hikes until PCE is closer to the 2% long-run target. July US Retail Sales stayed roughly the same as in June and posted ~0% change compared to estimates of 0.1% (sales are still up 9.2% from July 2021), this surprised many analysts who expected more spending with the recent significant reduction in gas prices. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US August PMI at 945am EST on 08/23; US Q2 Final GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27.* Price is currently testing $4254 minor support after being rejected by the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 + the 50 MA at ~$4325. Volume remains consistently Moderate and broke a three day streak of buyer dominance with a seller dominated close in today's session; this was a capitulation type of initial reaction which is indicative of a critical resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $4220, this margin is bearish. RSI is currently testing 68.42 support after forming a soft peak at 73. Stochastic is bearish and currently trending down at 87; it remains in the 'bullish autobahn zone' which is mildly bullish at the moment. MACD remains bullish but is beginning to trend sideways as it forms a soft peak just above the ATH (91.78) at 93.54; it has been bullish for 54 days now, implying that perhaps this is more than just a bear market rally. ADX is currently trending up at 31 as Price continues to push higher, this is bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at $4254 minor support then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 + the 50 MA at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price loses $4254 minor support , it will likely retest $4175 support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/16 at ~$4k psychological support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $4226.
S
by dailytaguy
1
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% SPX, 25% Cash . *The BLS reported PPI numbers this morning and they followed in the footsteps of CPI by coming in lower than the month prior, from a 1% rise in June to a -0.5% drop in July. This was a surprise because consensus estimates had PPI rising by 0.2%, such a dramatic fall can largely be attributed to the 19% decline in national average retail gas prices since last month. Year over year, PPI registered its lowest rise from the 12 months prior at 7.6% (this is the lowest it's been since October 2021). This inflation data has markets believing that inflation has peaked and July's PCE numbers due on 08/26/22 will help to clarify whether the drawdown in inflation was largely due to a big pullback in gas prices. June's PCE numbers came in higher than estimates and, all things considered, the supply chain situation has only improved nominally which brings a bit of uncertainty regarding whether or not PCE will follow in the footsteps of CPI and PPI. Key dates next week: US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 830am EST 08/16; 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 915am EST 08/16 ; US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17.* Price is currently testing $4254 minor resistance (new resistance) after breaking out above $4175 resistance and flipping it to support (two consecutive closes above $4175). Volume remains Moderate and has favored sellers in three of the past four sessions even as Price is going higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $4109, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 67 after being rejected at 68.42 resistance, the next support is at 53. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 91, the next resistance is max top while the next support is at 76. MACD remains bullish for a 48th consecutive session and is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 74, the next support (minor) is at 55 and the next resistance is the ATH at 91.78. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to break out above $4254 minor resistance then the next likely target is a retest of the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance (which would probably coincide with the 200 MA). However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely formally retest $4175 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes) below $4175.
S
by dailytaguy