$GBINTR -B.o.E Cuts RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR
(November/2024)
source: Bank of England
-The Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, in line with expectations, following a hold in September and a quarter-point cut in August.
The U.S Fed ECONOMICS:USINTR is also expected to cut rates by 25bps today, following a larger 50bps reduction in September.
Traders are keen for signals on future policy, particularly after Trump’s re-election.
Indexes
-United States PCE (October/2024)$USCPCEPEPIMM 0.3%
(October/2024)
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in September of 2024, the highest gain in five months, following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in August, matching market forecasts. Service prices rose by 0.3%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%.
Year-on-Year, core PCE prices rose 2.7%, the same as in August, but above forecasts of 2.6%. source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
$EUIRYY -Europe's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2%
(October/2024)
+0.3%
source: EUROSTAT
-Annual inflation in the Euro Area accelerated to 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September which was the lowest level since April 2021, and slightly above forecasts of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates.
This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates.
Inflation has now reached the European Central Bank’s target.
In October, energy cost fell at a slower pace (-4.6% vs -6.1%) and prices rose faster for food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9% vs 2.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.4%).
On the other hand, services inflation steadied at 3.9%.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 2.7%, the lowest since February 2022 but above forecasts of 2.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.1% fall in September.
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rates (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 0.25%
October/2024
source: Bank of Japan
- The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its October meeting, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and matching market estimates.
Thursday's decision came amid shifting political lansdscape following Japan's election and ahead of the US presidential election.
In a quarterly outlook, the BoJ held its forecast that core inflation to reach 2.5% in FY 2024, with inflation expected to be around 1.9% for both FY 2025 and FY 2026.
Regarding the GDP, the central bank retained its 2024 growth forecast at 0.6%.
Additionally, it forecasts growth of 1.1% for FY 2025 and 1.0% for FY 2026.
$USGDPQQ -U.S GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ 2.8%
Q3/2024
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-The US economy expanded an annualized 2.8% in Q3 2024,
below 3% in Q2 and forecasts of 3%, the advance estimate from the BEA showed.
Personal spending increased at the fastest pace since Q1 2023 (3.7% vs 2.8% in Q2),
boosted by a 6% surge in consumption of goods (6% vs 3%) and a robust spending on services (2.6% vs 2.7%), mostly prescription drugs, motor vehicles and parts, outpatient services and food services and accommodations.
Government consumption also rose more (5% vs 3.1%), led by defense spending.
In addition, the contribution from net trade was less negative (-0.56 pp vs -0.9 pp), with both exports (8.9% vs 1%) and imports (11.2% vs 7.6%) soaring, led by capital goods, excluding autos. On the other hand, private inventories dragged 0.17 pp from the growth, after adding 1.05 pp in Q2.
Also, fixed investment slowed (1.3% vs 2.3%), led by a decline in structures (-4% vs 0.2%) and residential investment (-5.1% vs -2.8%).
Investment in equipment however, soared (11.1% vs 9.8%).
DAX TRADING IDEAHi again traders!
Here to bring you'all this idea about a bullish movement on DAX. Not a long term buy but a fast trade. The idea is to close it today before the market closes.
Why I think so?
The index has been on a three-day consecutive bearish movement. Dropping 500. After a manipulation, price seems to be holding on 5 minutes - 15 minutes frames, showing us a clear accumulation zone leaded by EMA9 and EMA50 ( 5 mins).
My potential profit is 104 points above the marked entry. Althought I think price is pumping on a few hours, could be possible to see a quick retracement before that.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest support & resistance analysis for US30.
Resistance 1: 42450 - 42720 area
Resistance 2: 43280 - 43310 area
Support 1: 41616 - 41886 area
Support 2: 40850 - 41182 area
Support 3: 40000 - 40240 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): More Growth is Coming Next Week
US100 nicely respected a recently broken horizontal structure resistance.
The price formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern on that and bounced.
I think that the Index will continue growing next week.
Next resistance - 20460
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Dow Jones Index (US30): More Growth is Coming?!
US30 successfully violated a resistance line
of a horizontal parallel channel on a daily time frame on Friday.
It indicates a highly probable bullish trend continuation.
Next resistance - 43150
For entries, consider a retest of a broken structure.
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S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Trend Continue
US500 broke and closed above a resistance line of a horizontal
range yesterday on a daily and updated the All-Time High.
It confirms the dominance of the buyers and indicates
a highly probable continuation of the uptrend.
Next resistance - 5850
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Markets collapse: investors flee China!The Chinese stock market is experiencing a sharp decline following a strong rally in recent weeks. On October 8, the Hang Seng Index (#HSI on FreshForex) plummeted by 9.56%, reaching 20,893 points.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, dropped even further — by 10.9%. The CSI 300 Index of mainland China, which started the day with an 11% gain, ended with a nearly 8% loss.
The main reason for the drop is growing investor dissatisfaction with the lack of new economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government. Expectations were high, especially after the National Development and Reform Commission's press conference, where economic support was promised but no concrete actions were provided. This has heightened uncertainty in the market.
What has been done previously:
- In late September, the Chinese government announced plans to strengthen economic stimulus, promising fiscal injections and support for the real estate sector.
- The People's Bank of China lowered reserve requirements for banks, freeing up 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for the market.
- There are plans to lower mortgage rates and the down payment for second-home purchases to a record low of 15%.
Bottom line: The market is waiting for action. Given the history of sharp declines in the Chinese market, such as in 2015 when the CSI 300 Index lost 40% in two months, the Chinese government cannot afford a similar outcome and may direct efforts to strengthen investor confidence. Since mid-September, #HSI has experienced a steady bullish trend, and our analysts believe these trends could repeat.
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Bullish Move From Support
US100 has a nice potential to go up from a key daily horizontal support.
As a confirmation, I see a double bottom pattern on a 4H time frame
and a confirmed breakout of its horizontal neckline.
Goal: 20000
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Bullish Outlook Explained
Nasdaq Index formed a strong bullish pattern on a 4H time frame.
The price violated a neckline of the ascending triangle formation.
With a high probability, the market will continue growing.
Next resistance - 20100
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Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Trend Continues
Dollar Index violated a support line of a wide horizontal range on a daily.
Taking into consideration that the market is trading in a long term bearish trend,
chances are high that a bearish rally will continue.
Next support - 100.00
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Dollar Index (DXY): Waiting For a Bearish Continuation
Dollar Index is trading in a strong global bearish trend.
Since the end of August, the market started to consolidate
within a wide horizontal range on a daily.
The signal that will signify a continuation of a bearish trend
is a breakout of a support of the range and a daily candle close below that.
It will push the prices lower at least to 99.8
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Dow Jones Index (US30): What to Expect from FOMC?
Dow Jones Index is very weak ahead of FOMC today.
The market is stuck within a horizontal range on a 4h time frame.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries,
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 41820 - the resistance of the range,
we can expect a bullish continuation at least to 42000 level.
Bearish Scenario
A bearish breakout and a candle close below 41440
will push the price lower at least to 41200 level.
Wait for FOMC and then follow the market after a breakout.
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#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 12/09/2024Gap up opening expected near 25050 level in nifty. After opening if nifty starts trading above 25100 level then possible upside rally in index. Strong downside expected in case nifty starts trading below 25050 level and this rally can extend further 100-150 points if nifty gives breakdown of 24900 level.
Dollar Index (DXY): Time to Grow?!
Dollar Index has a nice potential to keep growing next week.
The market nicely respected a daily horizontal structure support,
bounced and violated a resistance line of a falling parallel channel on an hourly time frame.
The market may reach at least 101.44 level.
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S&P500 INDEX (US500): Strong Intraday Bearish Signal
Update for US500.
Earlier, we spotted a breakout of a support line of a horizontal
trading range on a daily.
Retesting a broken structure, the market formed a symmetrical triangle
pattern on a 4H time frame.
Bearish breakout of the support of the triangle gives us a strong intraday bearish signal.
We can anticipate a bearish continuation now.
First goal - 5450
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US30: First green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2 ✅
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day ✅
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: primary, first green day signal potentially is a sign of bullish move, I will be waiting for a 3 session setup dump and pump in the day itself, after all the news. All the trades will be taken after 10am NYT.
Short: secondary, although the signal day, I can't exclude a scalp setup back into the LOW, retesting the area for the main trade on tomorrow.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Important Bearish Signal
US500 was consolidating for quite a long period of time around
the level of a current all-time high and formed a range.
After the release of the yesterday's US fundamentals, the Index dropped
and formed a high momentum bearish candle.
A daily candle closed below a support of the range, confirming its violation.
We can expect a bearish continuation lower now.
Next support - 5432
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