Nasdaq-100 Index (US100) Pullback Trade
Nasdaq Index is taking off from a key horizontal support.
The price formed a double bottom pattern with a higher low on that.
Its neckline was broken then.
I opened a long position on a retest.
A pullback is expected to 12999 / 13060
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Indexes
Dow Jones Index (US30): The Market Will Go Higher 📈
On a today's live stream, we discussed Dow Jones Index.
We spotted an inside bar formation, being formed on a key daily structure resistance
and a confirmed bullish violation of the upper boundary of the range of the mother's bar.
It is a very important bullish clue.
Probabilities will be high that the Index will keep growing.
The next goal for buyers will be 34175.
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DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Important Breakout 💵
Dollar Index broke and closed above a resistance line of a falling parallel channel on a daily.
The price is retesting the broken vertical structure at the moment.
I will expect a pullback from that at least to 103.0 level.
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DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Potential Scenarios Explained 💵
Dollar Index is approaching a resistance line of a falling parallel channel on a daily.
Depending on the reaction of the price to that, I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bearish
Because the index is currently trading in a bearish trend,
probabilities will be higher that it will drop.
To confirm that, watch a horizontal range on 1H time frame.
If the price breaks and closes below its support, it will confirm the strength of bears.
A bearish continuation will be expected at least to 101.5 then.
Bullish
The market may break the resistance of the channel.
If a daily candle closes above that, it will confirm the violation.
A bullish movement will be expected to 103.0 level then.
Wait for a confirmation & then follow the market.
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Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Outlook Explained💲
Dollar Index is trading in a minor bearish trend on a daily.
The market is steadily falling within a falling parallel channel.
The market is currently approaching a very important confluence point based on a resistance of the channel
and a broken horizontal resistance.
I believe that chances will be high to see a bearish move from the underlined zone to 101.0 level.
Alternatively, remember that a bullish breakout of the resistance of the channel will initiate a correctional movement on the index.
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S&P500 Index (SPY) Bullish Outlook After NFP 📈
So it looks like the NFP is certainly bullish for S&P500 index:
Approaching a daily zone of demand, the price formed a double bottom formation on 4h,
successfully violated its neckline and reacted positively on its retest.
I will expect a bullish continuation and retest of a local high 4137
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Trading the Triangle: S&P500 is Bullish and Target New HighsHuge triangle in formation on the S&P500. The short term indicators are bullish: we are above the 150 day and 200 weeks moving averages, both being used as support when price is above them.
Price has been contracting last few weeks and traders are waiting to pick a direction. The bearish target would be 2700$, a price we didn't see since the sanitary crisis. The bullish target would be a new all time high at 5270$. Let's see.
Dollar Index (DXY): Waiting For Breakout 💵
Dollar Index is trading in a minor bearish trend on a daily.
The market is steadily falling within a falling parallel channel.
The Index is currently approaching a solid horizontal support.
I believe that the fall will resume after its breakout.
To confirm that, we will need a daily candle close below 101.9.
A bearish continuation will be expected to 101.0 support then.
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S&P500 Index (SPY): Bullish Outlook Explained
S&P500 Index is trading in a rising channel on a daily.
The price was approaching a solid resistance cluster on Thursday and Friday.
The market managed to break that and successfully closed above.
I believe that the Index may go higher this week.
Next goal for buyers will be 4155
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Dollar Index (DXY): Waiting For Breakout💲
Dollar Index retraced from a solid horizontal support.
The price is currently approaching a falling trend line.
If ithe market breaks and closes above that on a 4H,
it will initiate a correctional movement of the index.
Goals will be 102.74 / 103.09
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MarketBreakdown | GOLD, USDJPY, SILVER, US30
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watchlist.
1️⃣ Gold (XAUUSD) 4h time frame 🟡
Gold is perfectly respecting a minor rising trend line.
So far, I would expect a bullish continuation from that.
Goal for buyers might be the underlined yellow resistance.
If you are looking for shorting, consider a bearish breakout of the trend line.
I can give you a perfect confirmation to sell.
2️⃣ USDJPY daily time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵
The market is approaching a solid horizontal resistance.
Taking into consideration that the pair is quite overbought and trading in a bearish trend,
I believe that probabilities will be high to see a bearish move from that.
3️⃣ Silver (XAGUSD) 4h time frame 🪙
I spotted a cute bullish accumulation pattern - an ascending triangle formation.
The price has successfully violated its neckline.
It looks like the market will keep growing.
4️⃣ Dow Jones (US30) daily time frame
The market is approaching a solid daily resistance.
We see its breakout attempt now.
If a daily candle closes above that, the Index may go much higher.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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Dollar Index (DXY): Key Levels to Watch This Week 💵
Here is my latest structure for Dollar Index.
Resistance 1: 103.11 - 103.63 area
Resistance 2: 104.74 - 105.1 area
Resistance 3: 105.667 - 105.88 area
Support 1: 100.82 - 100.88 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Dollar Index Will Go Lower! Short!
Please, check our technical analysis on DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 103.37.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish
movement to the downside at least to 100.965 level.
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S&P500 Index (SPY): Classic Trend-Following Pattern
S&P500 Index is trading in a bearish trend.
Once, the price set the last low on a daily, a correctional movement started.
The market was steadily growing within a bearish flag pattern.
To catch a bearish continuation, wait for a bearish breakout of the support of the flag.
If the price breaks and closes below that on a daily,
a bearish continuation will be expected.
Goal will be 3830
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Will the FOMC continue the US30s run higher?Traders will be looking forward to today’s FOMC seeking future direction on rates as inflation starts to cool but remains high. The new banking crisis has also significantly influenced the markets over the last several weeks.
Stocks have been one of the markets hardest hit by the uncertainty thrown up by the banking crisis. The US30, in particular, has been hard hit, and sellers cut just over 7% off the index in four weeks.
Looking at recent price action, we can see some buyer confidence returning after bailouts, and political action was taken to help stop the rout. The US30 held support and broke its tight range yesterday with a 0.98% rally.
Inflation and rates had been key influences before the banking issues arose. Today’s FOMC could play an important role in the short term. Rates are now basically priced in with a 25-point increase, and Fed trackers see a 15% chance of a hold at an 85% chance of a 25-point increase.
The statement for us is the important part unless we see a hold which would be unexpected and should give the US30 a boost through its trendline. If the Fed remains hawkish and discounts the banking issues, this could set off selling with worry over higher rates and possible inaction to support the sector. If the message is more to the dovish side, we will be looking for further upside from the new up leg, and hopefully, a break of the current trend could show signs that the correction could be starting to wain.
Minor resistance remains at 32,600, and support is seen at 31,850. Price continues to hold a series of LHs and LLs, but a new push higher could break that pattern.
The short term comes down to the fed message, which will be released at 05:00 am AEDT with the Federal funds rate. The press conference follows at 05:30 am.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Detailed Technical Outlook 💵
Update for Dollar Index.
The price broke and closed below a key daily support yesterday.
This morning, the market retested that and now, we see a positive bearish reaction.
Analyzing an intraday perspective, I spotted a falling parallel channel on 1H time frame.
I believe that the index will keep falling within its boundaries.
The closest strong support - 102.8
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Dow Jones Index (US30): Key Levels to Watch This Week
Here is my latest structure analysis and key levels to watch this week on Dow Jones.
Support 1: 31420 - 31830 area
Support 2: 30690 - 30900 area
Support 3: 30070 - 30360 area
Resistance 1: 32250 - 32610 area
Resistance 2: 33430 - 33660 area
The market is currently stuck between Support 1 & Support 2.
The market participants are awaiting the interest rate decision on Wednesday.
It will most likely clarify the future direction of the market with a breakout.
Consider the underlined structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Dow Jones short ideaOn the 4-hour timeframe, the US30 is showing signs of weakness. The stochastic indicator, which measures the momentum of the price, is currently in overbought territory, indicating that the market may be due for a reversal. A reading above 80 on the stochastic indicator is typically seen as a bearish signal.
Furthermore, the price has been trading below the 50-period moving average, which is a bearish signal. Additionally, there has been a series of lower highs and lower lows, which further indicates a potential shift in trend from bullish to bearish.
Based on these technical indicators, I believe that there is a good opportunity for shorting the US30 on the 4-hour timeframe using the stochastic indicator. However, it's essential to manage your risk properly and use appropriate position sizing. Always remember to do your own research and analysis before making any trades.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Waiting For Breakout
Dow Jones Index is very bearish since 7th of March.
Currently, the price is stuck on a solid horizontal support, though.
For now, I am patiently waiting for its breakout.
Daily candle close below that area will confirm the violation.
A bearish wave will be expected then at least to 30900 support.
I will post an update once I spot a confirmed breakout.
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