whipsawing It seems the whipsawing is set to continue.
Below the last idea on spx which was clearer, but now it all looks flat.
Indexes
UKOIL: Downtrend Bid + Retracement LongFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously, as always this is on opinion basis. That being said, let me get into a few key points I want to make. Oil is about to go back down on the demand curve and have increased resistance, especially in indexes and/or options trading. This is mostly due to price corrections and a result of the sentiment going on from people reacting to the Covid19 pandemic. The demand curve going down = oil going down = price corrections as a result of impacted news. It is that simple, and this is why I predict a small imminent bearish period for UKOIL, but a huge upswing investment opportunity.
SPX trend line breach may signal breakdown pointIf you've been following my previous thread, you know that I've been watching the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA as possible reversal levels for this rally in the S&P 500. We eventually pushed past the 50-day (green curve), but yesterday we got rejected from a test of the 200-day (dark blue curve), and now we've violated the upward trend line (light blue line) that SPX has formed on its hourly chart over the last month. (In addition to technical resistance from the 200-day EMA, we also hit a fib retracement level and a couple important psychological resistance levels on the fundamental side-- 20-22.5 forward P/E, market cap 140% of GDP-- so there are lots of reasons to reverse from here).
In my past experience with trend line breakdowns, the price often moves back above the trend line at least one more time, and then it either holds there or reconfirms the breakdown. That's already happened, as you can see on the zoomed-in chart:
It's possible that we will move above the trend line again and retest the 200-day EMA before breaking decisively below the trend line, but personally I have already purchased puts.
In terms of fundamentals, the overall news environment is starting to shift in a more negative direction, I think.
Over the past month, the market has been driven by government stimulus, decent tech earnings, and optimism around reopening. It has mostly shrugged off bad news such 30 million job losses, a spate of corporate bankruptcies, and a flood of worse-than-expected 1Q economic data.
Now, however, we're turning our attention to Q2. Q1 GDP fell only 4.8%, whereas Q2 GDP is forecast to fall 27.7%. The earnings numbers for Q2 are going to hurt a lot more than those for Q1, especially due to companies' high borrowing costs. Analysts are also predicting another rash of bankruptcies and debt offerings in May. Cities and states may announce new taxes to offset budget shortfalls.
Meanwhile, the Fed is out of interest rate ammunition and slowing its balance sheet expansion. There's a bailout for oil likely coming in the next few days, and possibly an infrastructure bill in the longer-term pipeline, but federal stimulus is slowing down as the economy reopens.
And if China's experience is anything to go by, reopening will be slow, with lots of logistical bottlenecks and false starts. Demand will stay weak because consumers are out of cash. Some states will reopen too early and have to go back into quarantine within a few weeks. I think we will retest the March low in coming months as investors realize the scale of the economic damage and that it's not a temporary thing.
Big tech, I think will continue to outperform due to persistent fear of Covid-19. Airlines and cruise lines will continue to struggle, with some likely filing for bankruptcy in the coming year. Banks will remain hard-hit and highly risky due to continued default risk.
NZX 50 INDEX (NZ50G) Trading Plan
The Main New Zealand stock index reached a key structure level.
the price has already got rejected on a daily signifying the significance of the underlined zone for the market participants.
on 4H we see a narrow trading range with a potential lower high formation.
on focus in 10350 structure support.
in case of a bearish candle close below that, the index will drop
target levels will be: 9950 / 9450
good luck!
MCDONALDS (MCD) On Key Level! Two Scenarios!
Mcdonalds is approaching a key daily resistance level.
on 4h is coiling in a rising wedge pattern and clearly, the market participants are waiting for some trigger.
earnings I suppose!
for now, the price action is weak and we should be prepared for both scenarios.
in case of a bullish violation of the key level, we will see a bullish continuation to 206/217 levels
in case of a bearish breakout of the wedge, we may expect a drop to 170/156!
be prepared for both scenarios and follow the market!
good luck!
Microsoft (MSFT) Bearish Forecast
hey guys,
perfect structure based short setup on MSFT!
we have a key daily level and a bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern with a lower high based on that!
+ after a breakout we see a retest with a negative bearish reaction!
based on that I expect the stock to fall to 161.0 / 152.0 levels (based on structure)
good luck!
UK 100 Index (UKX) Bullish Wave Is Coming?!
hey guys,
a perfect example of a reversal pattern on UK 100 index.
we see an ascending triangle with a sequence of higher lows and a strong horizontal resistance that still holds!
wait for a bullish breakout of 5850 resistance and buy on pullback expecting a bullish continuation.
target levels:
6150
6500
based on structure!
good luck!
if the market breaks below the rising trendline, setup will be invalid
SP500 buy opportunity, when the Fed helping we should be buying.Due to the current market situation, it is possible to see 2900 and 3k target and SP500. The market keeps pushing forward and we should keep buying. Support lines have been shown in my chart, it should be bought in every bounce on them. Until the trend completely changes I see it is a buy.
S&P 500 | Cup & Handle Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
There is a Cup & Handle pattern. And currently price fixed above the 50 MA. In case there is a confirmed breakout of the Horizontal Resistance we can continue the growth.
Nevertheless be carefull with this asset
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable!
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
Oil Futures: $35 Target (Huge Coronavirus Investment Potential) Basic economics is the supply and demand curve. The United States is at war with other countries for catching up on oil supply, so the constant need for production even during pandemic times leads to a surplus. The demand curve for oil though is at one of its lowest, given we need to literally all stay home. This leads me to believe that the huge price crash was time related, and extremely indicative of a panic sale. Take what I am saying as an opinion and not face value (as always), but my advice is that there is huge potential for a positive correlation wave or bullish price increases after the demand curve stabilizes. This could be a week or two, or maybe even few month, but this is an extremely short futures trading strategy given you could conservatively potentially see a doubling in the futures price with medium risk. Again, just a hypothetical, but I would keep a close watch on oil futures and indexes. Please don't take what I say seriously or sound i.e. hypothetical risk disclosure, but this gives you something to think about.
AIRBUS (AIR) Two Scenarios Explained
hey guys,
airbus is consolidating on a key structure support level.
the price is stuck on 50 level for more that one month!
on 4H we see a classic contraction with a formation of a descending triangle.
the side of the breakout of the triangle will show us the future direction of the stock.
because the trend is bearish, we are bearish biased here and we expect further bearish continuation.
however, in case of a bearish breakout out profits will be relatively limited.
we will aim at 40 and this will be the next key structure.
in case of a bullish breakout of a falling trendline, we can expect a bullish continuation,
and aim at 76 level.
be prepared for both scenarios and adjust your trading plan accordingly!
good luck!
Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) MARKET OPEN ON FOCUS!
hey guys,
DJ reached a key structure on 3 days chart.
I watched closely the reaction of the market on that level and for now, we see a nice sequence of dodjies and rejection candles.
due to current market conditions, we are short biased here and will try to catch a movement to the downside.
on focus will be a trading range on 4H!
in case of the absence of the occasional gaps during the market opening, I will short the index with stop above the range,
and aiming at 22500, 21750 levels.
good luck!
if the market opens with a gap above 24000, setup will be invalid.
Spread Trading The NQ and ESIn this video I go over a type of spread trade that I do on a regular basis. This type of trading is popular with hedge funds and is very powerful type of trade to have in your trading toolbox.
Straits Times Index (STI): Bullish Forecast
hey traders,
2550 is a major weekly structure level on STI.
just recently we saw its confirmed bullish breakout with a weekly candle close above that,
now the market is retesting the broken structure and I believe that bullish sentiment will proceed.
target levels are:
2700
2850
good luck!
S&P 500: Resistance not yet hitHello guys
The SPX is still moving upwards in a rising wedge. As pointed out already in my last idea, it is likely we are going to continue moving upwards and we may hit resistance at around 2950 to 3000 points.
As the smaller moving averages continue to rise I personally think the possibility of another huge drawdown is slowly decreasing. Even taking out the downtrend line on to a further high, the SPX still managed to break it and gain some distance after the apparent short term downwards trend. In the short term, the 0.5 and 0.618 as well as the 0 retracement are going to be areas of support, the 1000 MA on this 4h is probably going to be an area of resistance. For this week, my outlook on the S&P 500 is still rather bullish, even more than last week.
Keep in mind I am not making any comments about fundamentals.
Let me know what you think!
MASTERCARD (MA) BEARISH FORECAST
after a bullish breakout of the key weekly/daily level,
it looks like bears are still willing to push and the breakout might turn to be false.
look at this triple top pattern on 1h with two lower highs,
then break out of minor support and retest with a bearish reaction...
looks like stock will drop lower.
initial target is 230!
good luck!
DAX INDEX ON KEY LEVEL!
10300 - 10600 is a decision zone for DAX.
the reaction of the market participants will show us the future direction of the index.
I am short biased here and want to see some double top formation to sell aiming at 9550.
however, if you are on a bullish side you can wait for a bullish breakout of the underlined zone
and then buy on pullback expecting a further recovery.
pay attention and follow the market!
Still thinking SP500 is bearishNice confluence incoming on the SP500 (log scale):
1) 0.618 of the entire dump (log scale)
2) Horizontal resistance
3) Channel midline
Wave C Slope < Wave A
SPX500 INDEX (SPY) Short Trade Explained!
hey guys,
the previously discussed 2800 level is still respected by the index and for now, bulls are not able to go through.
on 1H I have noticed a completed head and shoulders formation.
the market is currently in an attempt to break below its neckline.
in case of 1H candle close below the underlined support we can sell the market expecting the continuation to lower levels of structure:
2636.0 - previous support
2536.0 - next support
stop will lie above the right shoulder - 2800.
in case of a bullish reaction from neckline and continuation above the head level our setup will be invalid.
SPX: Trump was elected at 2200Hi Guys,
long time since the last time. I hope you are all well and fine.
Let's dive into it!
March 23 - FED announced it would buy bonds in unlimited numbers and backstop direct loans to companies, the latest in a series of policy steps taken over the past 10 days to calm markets and support the economy.
(www.reuters.com)
SPX bounced at 2200 (red dotted line) which is the starting point of Trump's US Presidency.
Please click & play the following chart posted on Feb 29 (Sat) in order to review the informations and watch it unfold:
March 3 (Tue) - by cutting rates the FED managed to slow it down at 2950 but the effects of the emergency measures did not last long:(www.reuters.com)
March 9 (Mon) - market keep falling. Please click & play the following chart posted on March 6 (Fri) in order to review the informations and watch it unfold:
Just to note that the FED held 6 meetings in March to calm markets. (www.federalreserve.gov).
TECHNICAL:
- price below 200SMA (as in 2015/2016 and in 2018/2019) currently supported at 2200 (A);
- price pulling back from 2200 (A) in what may be a bear rally into 200SMA at approx 50% of Covid19 downtrend from (0 zero);
- VIX maybe on its way below 30 again;
Questions:
1) how long will it take for the market to cross and consolidate above 200SMA and resume Progress again?
2) what what kind of recession is the COVID-19 recession going to be? V-Shaped? L-Shaped? W-Shaped?
3) Is this a virus-related recession, or is it the one economists said was on the horizon?
For information iro The Flash Recession (2nd circle in red) please review the following chart posted on Apr.7, 2019:
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
S&P 500 | Broadening Wedge Tops & BottomsPlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
Price formed a Broadening Wedge Tops & Bottoms on Weekly. If there is a confirmed breakout of the Horizontal Resistance price is likely to continue forming the pattern and go to the Higher Boundary of the one.
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
