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SPY likely to move toward bottom of channelI think we're likely to see a correction in the S&P 500 to at least the bottom of the channel, if not lower. On Tuesday the S&P 500 hit 19 forward P/E, making the index the most expensive it's been since 2002 (18 years ago). In effect, the S&P is priced as if there's zero risk in the market right now. Of course, we all know that's not true; between coronavirus and record public and private debt, there's lots of risk out there right now. We've been borrowing money to juice the economy for years, and coronavirus may bring a reckoning. A huge, long list of companies has issued negative earnings guidance or warnings of business disruption due to the virus, and more companies are likely to do the same next week. Analyst firms will adjust their forecasts and price targets based on companies' guidance. Analyst firms are also sounding warnings that coronavirus's macroeconomic impact is underestimated or that it may cause disrupted companies to default on trillions of dollars of debt. Frankly, we're long overdue for a price correction, and it's ridiculous for the S&P to be mid-channel with so many headwinds. I don't really like to play short, because the market usually goes up long-term, but for those who do play short, now would probably be the time.
SP:SPXShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
Beware a possible market topLast month, I posted an article here on TradingView in which I mentioned three indicators that 2020 might be a banner year for stocks. We had had a strong Santa Claus rally and a strong "first five days" of the year, I pointed out, and unless there was a major end-of-month correction, we were on course to have a strong January. All three of those indicators are highly predictive of full-year performance. Well, guess what? We got a strong end-of-month correction, and we ended January down 0.04% overall. That means we only got 2 out of the 3 bullish indicators, with overall January performance implying a bear year ahead. Lately we've been rallying from that late January correction, but I'm not sure it can last. If China hadn't announced the removal of half its tariffs, the market would already have resumed a down trend due to growing coronavirus risk. The reality is that coronavirus impact is likely to be larger than the impact of a 50% tariff cut. Analysts are expecting 15% China production cuts in the auto industry, for instance, and oil prices already reflect a huge impact on travel and shipping. So far it's just international travel, shipping, and demand that are affected, but you can probably expect a larger impact on domestic markets within a month or two. My model suggests that the current global count of about 31,500 coronavirus cases is likely to grow to 190,000 by the end of February. (y = 126.23x2 - 1E+07x + 2E+11; R² = 0.999. See my Twitter page @WSPZoo for the graph.) What might be the impact of coronavirus? Well, a quick review of a 2014 study on Spanish flu in Sweden-- where infection and mortality rates were similar to coronavirus-- suggests that capital returns fell by about 1%, and the poorhouse rate was about 11% higher in the hardest-hit areas than in the least-affected areas (due mostly to kids losing their parents). With the banking sector in the US currently very exposed to any increase in the poverty rate due to higher-than-2007-levels of subprime lending, I'd suggest coronavirus substantially increases the risk of another cascade of defaults like the one that triggered the 2008 Great Recession. The US also has a trillion-dollar deficit and low interest rates, leaving perhaps little room for fiscal stimulus if GDP growth should slow on the order of 1%. In short, this is very worrying. The tariff news will buoy us a little, but I'm not sure how long it will last. If we end the day down today, then we will have made a bearish divergence on the RSI. And if we end the day down tomorrow, that'll probably give us a bear divergence peak on the MACD as well. I have already changed my allocation to about 75% cash, and it may be a while before I re-enter on anything but a few small option positions.
TVC:NDQLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Straits Times Index (STI): Important Update hey traders, instead of breaking above 3280 structure resistance the market has respected it and, moreover, set a lower high. after a lower high formation, the market has dropped below a support line of a flag pattern. the breakout is considered to be confirmed and our bias switches from bullish to bearish. from the current perspective, I will expect bearish continuation to 3120 / 3050 / 2980 levels. protect your profits based on these levels. good luck!
TVC:STIShort
by VasilyTrader
1
U.S Dollar Based Borsa Istanbul 30 Index Futures can test ResistAlthough the fragility in the Turkish Lira continues, we see relief from the exchange rate after the Iranian tension. At least we can expect the index to test the resistance point in the first place. The ban of short sale in Borsa Istanbul makes me a little startled. That is why the domestic investor plays ball in the index and volumes are calm. On the other hand, the weekly chart also showed a buy signal : So let's take a small position to stay in game. NOTE : This analysis was made on the U.S Dollar based value of the Borsa Istanbul 30 Index. We can make this analysis more risk-free with the following parameters: Position Size : Small percent of portfolio (%5 - %10 ) Risk/Reward Ratio = 1 / 2 Stop-Loss : 24.200 Goal : 26.325 Furthermore, we can look at discounted XU030 stocks, and then let's we'il talk again. You can see my U.S Dollar based Turkish Airlines stock position in related ideas, i attached. Regards.
BIST:XU030D1!Long
by Noldo
S&P/TSX Composite Index can test Minor Resistance LevelsWhen we look at Canadian instruments during the Autonomous LSTM Adaptive period: We see a cheapness in both stock markets and currency. Even though I have a positive opinion about the target, let's try it out in small quantities and leave more position size in case of a second try on negative scenario. This analysis can be more risk-free with the following parameters: Position Size : %1 for Index Futures or Small percentage of Portfolio Risk/Reward Ratio = 1/1.99 Stop-Loss : 16911.75 Goal : 18032 NOTE: The unapproved short signal is the leading indicator of volatile movements. So let's be careful. Let's leave more room for the second attempt, which, when the circumstances are in our favor, let us gain much more of our loss. Regards.
TSX:TSXLong
by Noldo