Here’s an analysis of the DXY on the 1-hour chart, Here’s an analysis of the DXY on the 1-hour chart, with your updated target of 107.100:
Current Analysis
Trend Overview:
The dollar index (DXY) is in a clear downtrend on the 1-hour chart, forming lower highs and lower lows.
Momentum indicators like RSI are likely staying below 50, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Key Resistance Zone (108.100):
This is the potential sell zone, where the price may face rejection.
Look for a bearish candlestick pattern at or near this level (e.g., shooting star, evening star, bearish engulfing) to confirm the entry.
Support Zones on the Path to 107.100:
Intermediate Support 107.500: DXY might consolidate or bounce slightly here, as it's a possible reaction point.
Final Target 107.100: This aligns with a major support level from prior price action or Fibonacci retracement zones.
Indicators to Watch
RSI:
If RSI is below 40, it confirms strong bearish momentum.
Any divergence (e.g., higher low on RSI while price makes a lower low) near 107.500 or 107.100 could signal weakening downside momentum.
MACD:
Look for a bearish crossover (MACD line crossing below the signal line) as confirmation to enter or hold the trade.
Volume:
A spike in volume near resistance (108.100) supports rejection. Similarly, decreasing volume near the target (107.100) could indicate trend exhaustion.
Trade Setup for 1-Hour Chart
Sell Entry: Around 108.100 (resistance zone).
Take Profit (Target): 107.100.
Stop Loss: Around 108.300, slightly above resistance, to account for volatility.
TVC:DXY
Indextrading
NASDAQ: Bullish until March 2025.Nasdaq is overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 72.532, MACD = 396.420, ADX = 56.355) and is about to do the same on the 1W as well (RSI = 69.424). This is because the Bull Cycle is on full extent. However, in anticipation of Q1 2025, we are entering the final phase of the Cycle. This is a Top sequence that we've seen three time before in the last 10 years. The early signal for this is when the 3W RSI forms overbought (RSI > 70.000) LH. Each time that happened, the index had a sharp drop to at least the 3W MA50. TP = 19,000 could be an early target.
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DOW JONES: Neutral 1D means buy opportunity.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.536, MACD = 330.150, ADX = 20.923) as it is on the bearish wave of the 4H Channel Up, towards the 4H MA200, which on November 19th priced the last HL. The 4H RSI got oversold and rebounded today above its MA period, which twice before has been a buy signal. We are going long here, aiming at the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 45,400).
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NASDAQ: Buy near the 4H MA50.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.360, MACD = 259.490, ADX = 43.763) as it remains within the medium term Channel Up. The recent bearish wave is correcting the uptrend towards the 4H MA50, which if technically holds, should give way to the new bullish wave. The 4H RSI is headed towards its S1 Zone, which is the buying level so you can time the entries acccordingly. Our target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 22,000).
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DOW JONES: Short term consolidation to lead to 46,100.Dow Jones is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.961, MACD = 523.800, ADX = 24.313) as the bullish trend inside the 5 month Channel Up is still intact. In fact it is not just intact but the index is basically on All Time High levels, supported by the 4H MA50. The Channel Up is highly symmetric and technically we believe we are on the same level as September 30th. The index was inside a shorter term Channel Up, which after a 4H MA100 test, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI was as evident then as it is now. The two fractals are virtually identical, hence we project a similar result. Buy and target the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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S&P500: No corrections possibly for the whole 2025.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 64.149, MACD = 44.390, ADX = 33.789) as it is extending the strong rise since the U.S. elections. Going back even more, this uptrend has been nothing but sustainable ever since the August 5th bottom that almost hit the 1W MA50. In fact that MA level is intact since October 2023. The index has been following a similar path with the December 2018 - December 2021 Bull Cycle that topped after a +105% rise. You can see that following the COVID correction recovery after leg (6), the index crossed over the 1W MA50 and never broke it up until after the January 2022 High in 574 days.
Consequently, we expect a continuation of the current uptrend for as long as the 1W MA50 stays intact. We are targeting a +105% rise yet again (TP = 7,150) near the end of 2025.
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NASDAQ: Strong bullish breakout today targeting 21,600Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.836, MACD = 123.620, ADX = 32.041) as today posted the strongest 1D candle since Nov 7th, extending the new bullish wave. The whole sequence is supported by the 1D MA50 since September 12th. Even though we are technically more than halfway through the wave, this is still a strong buy opportunity, aiming for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) as it has previously done so inside the 3 month Channel Up.
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A Drop Is Coming!Based on the NDS Mathematical Model, in the upcoming week, the final node F3 will be completed, and a decline across all indices is expected:
📉 First Target: 44,470
📉 Second Target: 42,846
📉 Third Target: 41,652
Following this decline, the Dow Jones Index is anticipated to resume its upward trend. Please note.
the responsibility for acting on this analysis lies solely with the individual trader!
DOW JONES: A few days of consolidation can push it to 46,100Dow Jones is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.114, MACD = 449.010, ADX = 35.064) and is printing a sequence much like post September 20th. That was a consolidation Channel that paved the way to the next bullish wave on the 1.5 Fib extension. This is a 4 month Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50. As long as it does, aim for the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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DAX: rebounding on the 1D MA100. Buy opportunity.DAX is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.905, MACD = -31.600, ADX = 29.913) as it made a rebound near the 1D MA100 on Tuesday and has been consolidating inside the 4H MA50 - 1D MA100 range. The prevailing pattern is a Channel Down and looks the same as the May-June Channel Down which also rebounded on the 1D MA100. Until it formed a 4H Death Cross, the price stayed within the 4H MA50 - 1D MA100 range. The breakout that followed crossed over the 0.786 Fibonacci level and hit the R1 before being rejected. Consequently, we consider this a buy opportunity on the short term, aimed at the R1 level (TP = 19,550).
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S&P500: Bottom formed on the 4H MA200. Target 6,140.The S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.959, MACD = 37.160, ADX = 31.912) as it is on a sideways trade forming the new bottom of the Channel Up between the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. The 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence that was present on both prior bottoms. Both rose by at least +5.30% after. That rise projection from the bottom is our target (TP = 6,140).
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DOW JONES: Bottom buy signal. Target 45,600.Dow Jones just turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.982, MACD = 339.670, ADX = 28.026) as it hit today the 4H MA200 after exactly 2 weeks. This is getting very close to the bottom of the 14 month Channel Up. Technically the last two HLs were formed when the 1D RSI double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold limit. Overall, this is a good enough buy opportunity to target yet another +6.80% bullish wave (TP = 45,600).
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NASDAQ: Touched the 4H MA200 and MACD Bullish Cross forming.Nasdaq turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.926, MACD = 156.450, ADX = 29.632) as the price pulled back aggressively to the point that it reached the 4H MA200 again for the first time since the elections day. With the exception of Oct 31st, this level hasn't been touched since September 11th, as the trend is rising inside a Channel Up. The 4H MACD will form tomorrow a Bullish Cross, which has been an early buy signal on the previous bottoms. We expect a new bullish wave to begin. We aim again for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) like the two bullish waves of the pattern.
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NASDAQ: Channel Up intact. Targeting 22,000.Nasdaq is on excellent bullish technical levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 65.968, MACD = 283.550, ADX = 47.440) as it is rising on the new bullih wave of the August Channel Up. The bullish wave confirmed the strong buying pressure as the 1D MA50 held and kickstarted it after a Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD. Based on the previous bullish wave in September, we are currently in the middle of a +10.90% wave. We are targeting its full length (TP = 22,000).
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DOW JONES: Short term target 44,850.Dow Jones is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.283, MACD = 438.030, ADX = 26.531) and on top of that, the 4H RSI has been inside overbought territory since November 5th. The price action remains inside the Channel Up that started in August but every time the 4H RSI trades sideways like this on overbought ranges, the price enters a smaller Channel Up and leads to the peak HH. That's what we are aiming for now (TP = 44,850).
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S&P500: Make no mistake. The bull is far from over yet.The S&P500 index may be overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.424, MACD = 27.270, ADX = 58.374), even on the 1M timeframe (RSI = 73.014) but the monthly rally is far from over. This isn't only due to the post election euphoria but also for technical reasons. Those have to do with SPX's long term cycles and as this chart shows, every 3.3 years the index tops and starts to correct until it reaches the 1M MA50, where the long term buy signal is flashed again.
The 1M RSI also helps on long term buy entries as it has a clear Buy Zone, but the same goes for selling (Sell Zone). The sell validation usually comes after a LH trendline is formed. The Time Cycles tool indicates that we can start consider selling after May 2025, so regardless of how high the price is, we will time our selling accordingly.
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S&P500: 1D MA50 hit after 50 days. Is it a buy?S&P500 just turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.346, MACD = 12.360, ADX = 37.705) as it hit yesterday the 1D MA50 for the first time since September 11th. The Channel Up since August is intact and each of its two previous Lows took place on the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 respectively, so each time an MA period higher. The 1D RSI is also reversing on a similar pattern as those two Lows. Our Target is the top of the pattern (TP = 6,000).
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DOW JONES: Bottom of the Channel Up.Dow Jones turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.00, MACD = 51.000, ADX = 21.000) as it almost hit the bottom of the Channel Up pattern. It is about to form a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe, which will be the first since August 8th that was technically the bottom of July's correction and start of the current Channel Up. We expect the bottom to be priced either today or tomorrow and the RR is good enough to buy. We aim for the 1.5 Fibonacci level (TP = 44,000), which priced the previous two HH.
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NASDAQ: Channel Up topped. Opportunity for short term selling.Nasdaq turned bearish on its 1H technical outlook (RSI = 38.742, MACD = -3.920, ADX = 40.192) as it crossed under the 1H MA50. This comes after almost an exact touch at the top of the September Channel Up and while the 1D timeframe has gone from bullish to almost neutral. The last two rejections at the top targeted at least the 1.236 Fibonacci level on the pullback. That is what we aim for on the short term (TP = 20,250).
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DOW JONES: testing the 4H MA200 and is expected to rebound.Dow Jones is on a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.958, MACD = 306.300, ADX = 31.951) as the Channel Up pulled back to almost test the 4H MA200 for the first time since the September 11th Low. This is basically the top of the support zone of the Channel Up and based on the 1D RSI, a strong buy candidate. We turn bullish, aiming at the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 43,900).
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NASDAQ: Approaching lower supports. Two levels you can enter.Nasdaq has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.116, MACD = 179.950, ADX = 45.004) as it failed to make a new High above the LH trendline and is being pulled down towards the 4H MA200 and 1D MA50. Those two are the major support zone and buy entry. But before that, the first is where the price is right now, at the bottom of the dotted Channel Up. The 4H RSI is almost on the S1 level (33.50), which has been the buy signal for October.
So the first buy entry is now, aiming at a +4.50% increase (TP = 20,950). If it fails, add another just over the 1D MA50 and take profit on both after again a +4.50% price increase (TP = 20,650).
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SP500 Secondary Trend. Bowl + handle. Resistance zone. 11 2023Logarithm. Large timeframe 1 week. On the chart a big bowl, you can say already with a handle, the price is testing the resistance of the previous market highs for the 3rd time (entering this zone). Breaking through it, this resistance will become a very strong support during the pumping (probability no more).
Simplifying the complex is the key to success.
Complicating the simple is a guarantee for your own confusion and mistakes on the plain.
It is based on knowledge and experience, which always leads to simplification of actions, not to complication !!!!
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
1️⃣ The increase in % rates will stop closer to the US presidential election, which is logical.
2️⃣ Before elections, the ruling party always shows the people the positive in its work for the people, even if there is none, i.e. injects money into the economy.
3️⃣ Handing out "free money" to potential voters before elections. Who will take it to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
4️⃣ Changing the bear market cycle to a conventionally bullish one in 2024 and a bullish one in 2025.
5️⃣ Overcoming previous all-time highs, this is the third time we have tested this resistance of the SP500 index.
In other words, everything is as always. Before the elections, “everyone is good” and is pushing the economy up. USA together with the Fed. Only the so-called “black swan” can influence this, whether it is real (there are no such things) or staged, it doesn’t really matter. But, this is all a hypothetical probability, nothing more, which must always be kept in mind. Therefore, when the market rises, protect your profits with stop losses or hedge with correlated positions. As a rule, nothing happens, and if it does, the event itself is always inflated by the media and bloggers tens of times in importance, thereby creating the illusion of fear. Don't fall for such tricks, either.
The present, and especially the future, is not always a projection of a repetition of the past. It may be conditionally the same, but the details are radically different. This must always be remembered.
On linear, it looks like this:
The main trend of the index More than 100 years for clarity. Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. The whole trend. Anniversary 100 years
Vertical growth by +372% (madness, super pump)
Before the super collapse of the “Great Depression” Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
The game controls the people, not the people the game. The concept of a lot is always replaced by a little, a little more, until all their expectations “burst” from greed. This encourages some to become wiser, some, on the contrary, the closer the abyss, the cuter the devils.
NASDAQ: Buy the next pullback and aim at 20,800Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.111, MACD = 227.000, ADX = 44.293) and maintains a short-term Channel Up since September 12th. The price is currently under the Channel's median, which suggests it's a buy opportunity. We expect the next bullish wave to form a HH at the top of the Channel Up. Based on the previous bullish wave, we're targeting the 1.786 Fibonacci (TP = 20,800).
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