NASDAQ: Perfect pullback execution. Bullish reversal next week.Nasdaq delivered the expected pullback which was validated when it crossed under the 4H MA50. Today it almost reached the 1D MA50, which is also where the 4H MA200 sits, turned momentarily bearish on the 1D technical outlook (now neutral/ RSI = 47.140, MACD = 151.030, ADX = 59.182) and the 1D RSI achieved symmetry with the December 6th 2023 Low. We still expect the 1.5 Fibonacci extension to get reached before the next pullback (TP = 19,250).
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S&P500: Don't expect any sizeable correction any time soon.The S&P500 index is on very healthy bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 63.385, MACD = 146.190, ADX = 48.596) showcasing in the best possible way the bullish bias of the long term trend and pattern, which is a Channel Up. This month's pullback is perhaps the best buy entry we can have as in relative terms based on the 1W CCI, the index is printing a consolidation phase similar to August-October 2020.
As long as the 1W MA50 is in support, we expect the Channel Up to gradually rise in the same manner as then and by early 2025 possibly hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,800).
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DOW JONES: Correction completed. Time for a new High.Dow Jones may have turned red on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.469, MACD = -17.010, ADX = 38.217) but it is only neutral on 1W (RSI = 52.498) suggesting that on the long run, these are strong buy levels from a R/R perspective. Two weeks ago we called the current pullback to 38,550 as a possibility but now it is time to turn bullish again. As you can see, on the 1W timeframe, there are striking resemblances with the Channel Up of March 2023 and in today's terms we are on the May's 2023 corrective wave. We expect at least a +13.67% rise from the recent bottom and our target sits slightly under that level (TP = 42,000).
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S&P500: Wait for the ideal level to rebuy.The S&P500 index is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.135, MACD = 2.270, ADX = 26.567) despite the fact that it made a new All Time High, in fact turning the former R level into S. The uptrend is being supported by the 4H MA50 since the May 2nd breakout and the Channel Up presents a new low risk buy opportunity close to the 4H MA100, ideally when the 4H RSI approaches the 30.000 limit. We will wait for the opportunity to go long and target the top of the Channel Up (TP = 5,400).
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NASDAQ: Overbought and on a 4H Golden Cross.Nasdaq is almost overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 69.095, MACD = 114.290, ADX = 45.033) and even though it has entered a new long term bullish wave, a short term technical correction is needed. In addition, it has completed the first 4H Golden Cross since November 8th 2023. The index then crossed over the LH trendline. We are already above the new LH. Enter on the next 4H MA50 contact and target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 19,250).
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Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Formed & Target.Wait for the Breakout, as it is Crucial in the Stock Market. Institutions and Professionals often Enter Trades based on PATTERNS & BREAKOUTS. After a Breakout, the Market significant BULLISH Trend.
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DOW JONES: Two levels to buy.Dow Jones is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.964, MACD = 188.520, ADX = 55.476) and has completed three green 1W candles in a row. Having reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level, the last confirmation left to see in order to call for a continuation of this uptrend is for the 1W RSI to cross over its MA. The moment it does, we will buy again and target the Channel's top (TP = 42,000). Until that moment, we will wait for a more comfortable buy lower at 38,550 (TP = 42,000 again).
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S&P500: Bullish trend confirmed.S&P500 has turned bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 58.980, MACD = 2.870, ADX = 28.757) as today it is trading and will most likely close over the 1D MA50 for the third day in a row. Having crossed over the LH, the index has invalidated the bearish sentiment of April and a new Channel up is emerging. If it capitalizes on the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we expect the 1D MA50 to hold from now on as the medium term Support, just like the 1D MA100 held on the April 19th bottom. Buy and target the R1 level on the short term (TP = 5,275).
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NVDIA: bottomed but may consolidate for a while. Massive upside.NVDA is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.860, MACD = -7.940, ADX = 34.317) as it corrected to a respectable extent, a correction that we have been expected as pointed out on our latest idea. The Channel Up is intact, the price crossed under the 1D MA50 and like the September-October correction, it may consolidate until it catches up with the 1D MA100. Whatever the case, this is most likely NVDIA's bottom, a symmetric -21.33% correction with an enormous upside on the 4.0 Fib extension, like the two Highs prior. For the time being our target is a more modest one on the 2.0 Fib (TP = 1,250).
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DOW JONES: Pattern worked like beauty. Technical rebound.Dow quickly turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.651, MACD = -238.11, ADX = 37.915) not staying for long on its previous bearish state as after hitting our TP = 37,300 it rebounded emphatically and is about to test the 1D MA50. The pattern was the same as the prior corrections inside the Channel Up: pullback to the 0.382 and -6.95% in particular like on December 20th 2022. Now the price should at least retrace to the 0.786 Fib on this bounce. Long TP = 39,350.
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S&P500: 1D MA100 hit. Short term rebound at least to be expectedS&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.601, MACD = -44.800, ADX = 58.528) as it touched the 1D MA100 on Friday after more than 5 months. This calls for a short term rebound at least as every previous corrective wave inside the multi month Channel Up that approached the 1D MA100, it rebounded to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Following our last short call, we are now turning long again (TP = 5,115).
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DAX: Almost on the 1D MA100. Has it bottomed?DAX effortlessly made a -6.50% decline from the top and hit our 17,450 TP, crossing in the meantime under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 10th 2023. Naturally its 1D technically outlook turned bearish (RSI = 41.378, MACD = 14.500, ADX = 36.627). In our view, it has or is very close to the new technical bottom as the 1D MA100 is just right under and the 1D RSI is inside a Channel Down bottom similar to March 20 2023. We don't expect the price to drop much lower than 17,300 next week, if it does then the ultimate long term buy entry will be on the 1D MA200. Our target by June is the HH Zone again (TP = 18,750).
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NASDAQ: This is a short term correction leading to 21,500.Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.414, MACD = -64.490, ADX = 50.187) but the 1W RSI is still bullish (RSI = 56.510). You can see the reason on this chart. The long term pattern is a Channel Up that is supported by the 1W MA50 for the past 13 months. The current pullback can be seen as a phase similar to the consolidation of August-November 2020 that resumed the uptrend afterwards almost as high as the 4.0 Fibonacci extension level. The RSIs are very much alike as well, under LH trendlines. Consequently our long term target is slightly under the 4.0 Fib (TP = 21,500).
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S&P500: First 4H Death Cross since August 14th 2023!S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we remain bearish until we complete at least a -5.87% decline (TP = 4,980). Observe how the symmetry among the two fractals is very strong, both the Death Cross and the 1D MA50 breakout were done around the same Fibonacci levels.
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DOW JONES: Close to our Target. Is it a buy after?Dow Jones is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.431, MACD = -279.330, ADX = 39.462) and is approaching our TP = 37,300 that we called nearly one month ago. The target will be a direct hit at the middle of the long term Channel Up and approach the 0.382 Fibonacci. As long as the 1D MA200 supports, we will then reverse to buying, at least on the short term, expecting a rebound to the 0.786 Fib (TP = 39,350) like on January 16th 2023.
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Stocks Put A Top In This Week! Further Downside to Come!ES (US 500) Fibs, Hourly: ES is our main index that provides helps us determine trend. You will notice that this week had a change of character. The market had taken the stairs up, but is now taking the elevator down, with sharp moves coming in a few hours to the downside. Expect more of this. ES pattern at the top is more head and shoulders like. And, unlike YM, we got a FULL All the Way Half Way Back Short this week, going back to the 50% line on Friday and selling off from there. Look for a gap up on Sunday night/Monday and a sell into strength of a 2nd test at the 5272.50 level. Our Target is all the way down at the 5158.25 level, over a 100 points away.
####TRADE ALERT####
ES (US 500- S&P500)
Call: Short
Entry Type: Limit, ideally better than 5262.50 no worse than 5245
SL: 5290
TP1 / TP2: 5158.25
###################
S&P500: Bearish reversal to the 1D MA100.The S&P500 remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.356, MACD = 47.470, ADX = 36.597) but today is having so far the strongest bearish 1D candle since December 15th 2022. Having hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up at the start of the week, this can be a technical correction to at least the 1D MA100 if the 1D MA50 breaks. Consequently we have a short term TP = 4,980.
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DAX: Overbought and in need of a technical correction.DAX is almost overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 69.159, MACD = 322.400, ADX = 30.730) and heavily on the 1W (RSI = 76.198), which suggests that the long term trend is massively bullish but on the short term a pull back below the 1D MA50 is needed in order to harmonize the supply and demand equilibrium. The index has already been rejected at the top of the HH Zone, which is a first sign for a potential pullback. Even though in the first two quarters of 2023 it spent considerable time inside this Zone before making a correction (even under the 1D MA200), this time the 'necessity' for a short term correction is greater. We are aiming for the pattern minimum of -6.42% (TP = 17,450).
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What is Dow Theory?The Dow Theory is a financial concept based on a set of ideas from Charles H. Dow‘s writings. Fundamentally, it states that a notable change between bull and bear trend in a stock market will occur when index confirm it.
The trend that is recognized is considered valid when there is strong evidence supporting it. The theory states that if two indicators move in the same way, the primary trend that is identified is genuine.
However, if the two indicators don’t align, then there is no clear trend. This approach mainly focuses on changes in prices and trading volumes. It uses visual representations and compares different indicators to identify and understand trends.
Dow Theory:
The Dow Theory originated from the analysis of market price movements and speculative viewpoints proposed by Charles H. Dow. It served as a fundamental building block for technical analysis, especially in a time when modern software-based technical analysis tools did not exist.
Robert Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory” thoroughly explores the evolution and significance of the theory in speculative endeavours, closely examining the Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow and William Peter Hamilton in the 19th century.
This theory represents one of the earliest efforts to comprehend the market by considering fundamental factors that provide insights into future trends.
The main version of the theory primarily focuses on comparing the closing prices of two averages: the Dow Jones Rail (or Transportation) (DJT) and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI). The premise was that if one average surpassed a specific level, the other average would eventually follow suit. Dow used an analogy to illustrate this concept, likening the market to the ocean.
He explained that just as waves rise to a certain point on one side of the beach, waves on another part of the beach will eventually reach that same point. Similarly, in the market, different sectors are interconnected, and when one sector shows a particular trend, others tend to follow suit as they are part of a larger whole.
The Paradigms of Dow Theory:
To comprehend the theory, it is essential to grasp the various rules formulated by Dow. These principles, often referred to as the tenets of Dow theory, serve as guiding paradigms
Three major market trends:
The tenets of Dow Theory classify trends based on their duration into primary, secondary, and minor trends. Primary trends can be either upward (uptrend) or downward (downtrend) and can last for months to years.
Secondary trends move in the opposite direction to the primary trend and typically last for weeks or a few months. Minor trends, on the other hand, are considered insignificant variations that occur over a shorter time span, ranging from a few hours to weeks, and are considered less significant than the primary and secondary trends.
Primary trends have three distinct phases:
Bear markets can be divided into three distinct phases: distribution, public participation, and panic.
In the distribution phase, there is a gradual selling off of assets by investors.
The public participation phase occurs when more individual investors start selling their holdings, leading to a broader decline in the market.
The panic phase is characterized by widespread fear and selling pressure, often resulting in a sharp and rapid decline in prices.
On the other hand, bull markets experience three phases: accumulation, public participation, and excess.
During the accumulation phase, astute investors start buying assets at lower prices, anticipating an upward trend.
The public participation phase occurs as more investors join the market and buy assets, contributing to the market’s upward momentum.
The excess phase represents a period of exuberance and speculative buying, often marked by overvaluation and unsustainable price increases.
Stock market discount everything:
Market indexes are highly responsive to various types of information. They can reflect the overall condition of an entity or the economy as a whole.
For example, any significant economic events or problems in company management can impact stock prices and cause movements in the indexes, either upward or downward.
Trend confirms with volume:
When there is an uptrend, trading volume rises and decreases while a downtrend starts
Index confirm each other:
When multiple indices move in a consistent manner, following the same pattern, it indicates the presence of a trend.
This alignment among indices provides a strong signal of market direction. However, when two indices move in opposite directions, it becomes challenging to determine a clear trend. In such cases, conflicting signals make it difficult to deduce a definitive market trend.
Trends continue until solid factors imply the reversal:
Traders should be careful of trend reversals, as they can often be mistaken for secondary trends. To avoid this confusion, Dow advises investors to exercise caution and verify trends with multiple sources before considering it a genuine reversal.
How Does Dow Theory Work in Technical Analysis?
The Dow Theory played a crucial role in the development of technical analysis in the stock market and served as its foundational principle. Which, approach to analysis highlights the importance of closely observing market data to identify trends, reversals, and optimal entry and exit points for maximizing profits.
As the market is considered an indicator of future performance, the application of technical analysis based on the Dow Theory helps investors make profitable trading decisions by identifying established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this approach, investors can gain insights into market dynamics and make informed decisions to enhance their trading outcomes.
In conclusion:
The Dow Theory has significantly influenced technical analysis in the stock market, serving as a cornerstone for its development and advancement. By analysing the careful examination of market data, this theory helps traders to identify trends, spot reversals, and determine optimal buy and sell points for maximizing profits.
The market itself is considered a reliable indicator of future performance, and technical analysis aligned with the Dow Theory assists investors in making profitable trading decisions by detecting established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this analytical framework, investors can gain valuable insights into market behaviour and make well-informed choices to improve their trading outcomes. The Dow Theory’s enduring impact continues to guide traders in their pursuit of success in the dynamic world of stock market investing.
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DAX: Overbought on 1D and in need of a technical correction.What makes us expect a technical correction this time, is the similarity in terms of RSI with mid February 2023. It took another 3 weeks for the price to decline but not before the RSI completed a Cup and Handle pattern. That was a -8.00% decline, we are aiming from the current levels for a -6.40% decline, which happened another 2 times, so our target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,900).
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