India
Next week is the last ray of hope for the bulls! Last week came like a brain freeze for traders where we saw tremendous volatility on both side but ultimately bears got the final hold. In my last two posts on #Nifty, we predicted a correct Wave C to unfold and that what exactly happen in last week. We are moving towards a near term target of 16100 on indices. But next week is crucial because we MIGHT test 15900 which is a downward trending channel support and also the last ray of hope for the bulls. If we trade below the channel then be ready for a night more on the Nifty...
P.S. Just a warning for the bulls !
Nifty's Daily Chart AnalysisHere I brings you the daily chart analysis of NSE:NIFTY
Going back to 23 march 2020 Nifty 50 found a strong support of a trendline and never go below that trendline until 23 November 2021.
But on 22 Nov 2021 , it gone below the trendline but still managed to close above trendline.
on 23 Nov 2021 it opens below the trendline but closed above it.
similar story for 24th and 25th November
But 26th November was the day when Nifty Opens below the trendline and closed far below it... that was the day since nifty never gone above it.
On 12th, 13th, 14th and 17th January 2022 it again tried to go above the previous ( Solid Dark ) trendline but failed to do so, and pushed below the newly formed downward trendline ( Dotted Trendline ).
Nifty again tried to cross above the new trendline on 2nd and 10th February 2022 , but failed.
From last six days Nifty continuously trying to go above the dotted line but every time it got rejections .
Conclusion of Analysis:-
1. Nifty may remain in the downtrend until it crosses the dotted trendline and sustain above it.
2. If it succeed to cross above the dotted trendline, Nifty may remain in a sideways trend until it breakout the 17800 zone.
This Analysis is not a trade recommendation, this study is purely for education purpose only, Do your own Study and Research before getting into any trades.
Still you "banking" on Banks ?Bank Nifty has been also working in line with Nifty around 200 day SMA but interesting part on this was that it has been completely below the average for last 10 trading sessions. Strong earnings on ICICI Bank and Axis Bank didn't lead up the sector which shows that how strongly 200 day SMA is working as resistance. Now analyzing further move with Elliot wave then we have initiated our move on Wave C since the high point at 36718 and this move could end near to 33470 which is arrived by calculating it equally to Wave A from 38759-35511.
P.S. Stop loss can be kept at 36950 which is 200 days SMA while reward is 2500+ points.
That's how market respects 200 Day Average!Nifty has been around in a range since last 10 trading sessions but during that it has respected 200 day average perfectly around 17200 level. It has closed at or below 200 day average for 9 sessions out of last 10 . For a technical breakout , its a guideline that we should sustain for two consecutive days on closing basis above breakout level for a confirmation and that is why that one day could be considered as false breakout. Yesterdays closing has been again way below 200 day average and volumes on future were comparatively higher which opens the gate for more downside. Considering Elliot Wave, we are into corrective wave and it seems we have completed Wave B yesterday at 17399 . Now we are into Wave C which could be equal in length of Wave A and we might see 1270 points correction from 17399 i.e., to 16150. And if we analyze worst case then we can test downside trend line on channel which could be at 15900.
P.S. Stop loss for short trade is just 360 points away at 17468 while again is approximately 1000 points.
Nifty has broke out of recent 2200 points rally !Nifty had been trading in a dream rally since the low at 15600 in Feb but now it seems near term high has been pinned at 18114. There are many technical factors supporting the view that we may play short from tomorrow. Firstly, Nifty has resisted exactly at larger degree channel line which is intact since the life at 18604 Secondly, Nifty has breached down channel which it was running onto since recent low at 15600. Thirdly, 15 day average (red line) where recent support was strong has been breached for last two trading sessions and Nifty has closed below the same to confirm the weakness. And lastly, RSI and MACD, both has shown bearish crossover on their respective averages. So to sum up, we can Freshly short nifty for a week with SL of 17685 while first target is at 200 day average at 17158 and second target would be open for new post.
CASTROLIND Next move around 30% in next 1 monthCompany is almost debt-free.
Company is expected to give a good quarter
Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 51.80%
Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 76.95%
ABOUT
Castrol India Ltd is principally engaged in the business of manufacturing & marketing of automotive and industrial lubricants and related services.
KEY POINTS
Product Portfolio
The company manufactures and sells various kinds of oil lubricants and other fluids for cars, motorcycles, commercial vehicles and others.
Distribution Channels
The company's distribution network includes 350 distributors who service ~1 lakh customers and sub-distributors.
The company also serves ~3,000 key institutional accounts directly and from distributors.
Manufacturing Capabilities
The company owns and operates 3 manufacturing plants in India which are located in Patalganga (Maharashtra), Paharpur (West Bengal) and Silvassa (Union Territory).
Jio-BP Partnership
In July 2020, the company's ultimate promoter BP plc, and Reliance Industries Ltd started their Indian fuels and mobility JV, Reliance BP Mobility Ltd. BP has already paid RIL 1 billion USD for 49% stake in JV with RIL holding the rest 51% stake. The JV aims to become a leading player in India's fuels and mobility markets.
The JV has benefited the company as it began selling fuels and Castrol lubricants from RIL's existing retail outlets.
Strong Parentage
The company is owned by Castrol Ltd UK which is a globally trusted multinational brand.
Castrol products are sold in more than 150 countries and it is a preferred lubricants partner for Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, Komatsu and many other businesses.
It was acquired by BP Plc in 2002 which is one of the 7 oil supermajors in the world.
Royalty Terms
For the use of the brand "Castrol", the company pays Castrol Ltd, U.K. (promoter) royalty @ 3.5% on annual turnover subject to a cap of 10% on profit before tax (PBT).
It paid ~80 crores and ~112 crores in royalty to Castrol Ltd U.K. in FY20 and FY19 respectively.
Long Emerging Markets as the World DeDollarization BloomsAll the empires and dynasties I studied rose and declined in a classic Big Cycle that has clear markers that allow us to see where we are in it.
This Big Cycle produces swings between
1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and
2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish
Amazing Buying Opportunity On An India CompanyEdelweiss Group is an investment and financial services company based in Mumbai, India. It is co-founded by Rashesh Shah and Venkat Ramaswamy.
Founders: Rashesh Shah; Venkat Ramaswamy
Assets under management: 750 billion INR (US$11 billion)
Revenue: 96.02 billion INR (US$1.3 billion, 2020)
Founded: November 1995
Headquarters: Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
Total assets: 542.8 billion INR (US$7.2 billion, 2020)
Subsidiary: Edelweiss Broking
BERGEPAINT impotent levels #BERGEPAINT Berger Paints Ltd is an Indian multinational paint company, based in Kolkata, Bengal, India. This company has 16 manufacturing units in India, 2 in Nepal, 1 each in Poland and Russia. Wikipedia
Customer service: 1800 103 6030
CEO: Abhijit Roy (2012–)
Headquarters: Kolkata
Revenue: 6,365.82 crores INR (US$850 million, 2020)
Founded: 17 December 1923
Parent organization: U. K. Paints India Private Limited
Subsidiaries: Saboo Coatings Pvt. Ltd., STP Limited, Bolix S.A., MORE
LINDEINDIA - Momentum Play - Target 2670, 2756, 2945LINDEINDIA had a massive run up in last 18-20 months and has formed a bull flag pattern. Currently its consolidating with in the Flag Pattern. Momentum has picked up for this stock and getting ready to breakout of the upper trend line, with short targets 2670, 2756, 2945 by end of Jan 2022 or even earlier. If it fails to close above the upper trend line 2-3 consecutive days, it might pull back and further consolidate. Momentum has picked up, I expect breakout, let's see.