India
India's inflation data in focus as Modi meets Putin As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engages with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the focus back home will shift to the latest inflation figures.
India has faced significant pressure from Western nations to distance itself from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. However, New Delhi has maintained its ties with Moscow. A key factor in this enduring relationship is energy cooperation, which has played a pivotal role in stabilizing fuel prices and, consequently, inflation in India.
In May 2024, India's annual consumer inflation rate eased to 4.75%, down slightly from 4.83% in April. Projections for the upcoming data suggest a minor decrease to 4.70%.
However, Reuters reports indicate a different trend. According to a poll of 54 economists, inflation in India likely edged up in June, breaking a five-month streak of declines. This increase is attributed to a surge in vegetable prices, driven by extreme weather conditions damaging crops. The poll forecasts inflation rising to 4.80% year-on-year in June, up from 4.75% in May. Food prices, which constitute around half of the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, are a significant factor in this anticipated rise.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
The USD/INR potentially maintains its bullish bias, staying above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Upside targets include 83.65, the upper boundary of its trading range. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at 83.40 serves as an initial support level for the pair.
NSE:NESCO - Long term uptrend - slow mover👍
✅ Long term uptrend
✅ Averaging up
✅Key levels ( blue line) monthly closing basis
✅Company is debt-free K
✅Office, exhibition and food ( cloud kitchen) and Mumbai Real Estate play
👎
❎ Post COVID-19 office rental space to watch out
❎ Slow mover
❎ Missing growth is the Indabrator engineering business
Disc: Invested , do you own research
India's inclusion in the JPMorgan Index is set to unlock billionBig Win for India: Indian government bonds are now included in JPMorgan's emerging markets index, a first for the world's fastest-growing large economy. This move is expected to trigger significant foreign investments, reshape India's financial landscape, and boost economic growth.
Opening the Doors: The inclusion grants India a 10% share in the index, following the 2020 relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions. Analysts predict an additional $30 billion inflow over the next ten months, potentially raising foreign ownership from 2% to 5%.
Market Reactions: The yield on Indian bonds has already decreased, reflecting rising prices. However, bureaucratic hurdles remain a challenge for some investors.
Positive Outlook: Despite recent political developments, India's economic outlook is strong. S&P Global is considering a credit rating upgrade, and India offers a good yield premium with strong growth and favorable inflation.
Future Potential: India's bond market is poised for further growth with potential inclusion in additional benchmarks like the Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Index and FTSE Russell.
Managing Volatility: The Reserve Bank of India is confident in its ability to manage potential market volatility due to the country's substantial foreign reserves exceeding $650 billion.
Overall, this inclusion marks a watershed moment for India's financial market, attracting foreign capital, lowering borrowing costs, and propelling economic growth.
#RKFORGE is breaking out of consolidation#RKFORGE
Stock made a nice run since Jun’22 and gave 5x returns; has been in consolidation mode since then for about 290 days.
Breaking out now with crazy volumes not seen in 2024. Looks good for more upside.
Measured Target for this is about 34% which is also the length of the consolidation range.
NSE:GODFRYPHLP - 🚬 ➕🏪➕🍭 can it create a magicThis evergreen stock from the FMCG Sector listed in India is not just on the verge of a breakout after seven years but also building optionalities that can surprise us on the upside.
👍
✅ Weekly Closing close to 52-Week High
✅ Stock up close to 40% in the last couple of weeks
✅ Verge of the multi-year breakout
✅ FMCG sector
🤞~ Every green sector
🤞- Optionalities - Cloud kitchen (ready to eat)
🤞- Optionalities - Convenience store's growth
👎 💣
❎Promoter's credibility
❎ Sin Stocks
❎ Not in explosive growth
BSE:GODFRYPHLP
NIFTY Major bullish break-out targeting 24650?The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) respected the former 6-month Channel Up last time we looked at it (April 30, see chart below), hit our 23100 Target and then broke the pattern:
What the latest technicals show is that the emergence of the Megaphone pattern on the 1D time-frame, resembles that of July - November 2023. That structure made a -7.00% that found Support on the 1D MA200 (similar to the current one) and then started a strong rally that broke above the Megaphone.
On the current fractal, Nifty is about to break above the Megaphone's Higher Highs trend-line and if it continues to replicated December 2023, then it should peak a little above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. We will set a Target a little lower however, when it completes a +15.67% rise, i.e. at 24650.
On a side-note, if at any given moment, the 1D RSI hits its Support Zone, we will buy it. It has given the most optimal Buy Signal the past 3 months.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NBCC Long Term Outlook.Picture Perfect Weekly and Monthly Closing. India on the cusps of Making History again as stable govt. is about to get re-elected for a third consecutive term. I am expecting a 4-5 times kind of return from the current date i.e. 01.06.2024. Time frame should be 3 Years. See you all in 2028.
India NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index - $NIFTY_MIThis is one of the individual charts on this weeks MAcro Monday48
The India NIFTY Midcap Select Index is a stock market index that represents the performance of 25 mid-sized companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India. Stocks are selected from the Nifty Midcap 150 index based on availability for trading in the Futures & Options segment, market cap and average daily turnover. Stock weights are based on free-float market capitalization.
Here are the top 5 holdings of the NIFTY Midcap Select Index along with percentage allocations and brief descriptions:
1. Indian Hotels Co. Ltd (7.1%): IHCL and its subsidiaries bring together a group of brands that offer a fusion of warm Indian hospitality and world-class service. These include Taj – the iconic brand for discerning travelers, SeleQtions, Vivanta, Ginger, and amã Stays & Trails.
2. Persistent Systems Ltd (5.69%): Persistent Systems is a global company specializing in digital engineering and enterprise modernization services. They offer solutions in banking, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, and technology sectors.
3. Cummins India Ltd (5.65%): Cummins designs, manufactures, sells, and services diesel and alternative fuel engines, generators, and related components. They are known for their innovation in power solutions and corporate responsibility.
4. Lupin Ltd (5.40%): Lupin is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company and one of the largest generic pharmaceutical companies by revenue globally. Their key focus areas include pediatrics, cardiovascular, anti-infectives, diabetology, asthma, and anti-tuberculosis.
5. Housing Development Finance Corporation Asset Management Company Ltd (5.21%): HDFC AMC operates as an investment management firm, offering portfolio management and advisory services to individuals, institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies in India.
Please note that these holdings are subject to change over time based on market conditions or fund manager decisions, however this is on the 2024 prospectus.
- The India NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index chart is more promising than the Ishares MSCI India ETF.
- There is a defined upward channel under which the 21 week SMA is providing support.
- We have broken recent highs, local resistance and a have a DSS Bressert Cross turning up. All three are bullish signals.
- A great risk reward set up is available here at 11:1. You can alter this to suit your risk tolerance or how long you want to remain in the trade. I would be inclined to lower the stop because the RR is weighted heavily to the upside.
- It is possible that we get a retest of the breakout area also, but given the DSS Bressert Cross and upwards momentum, I lean more directly bullish.
There is a currency risk with the second trade in the NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index as it is denominated in the Indian Rupee (INR) which has been on a long term decline against the USD since Aug 2011. If we were to move to the bottom of the current long term pennant we could lose c.5% in currency devaluation in this trade. This could happen over a couple of months, so its something to keep an eye on.
Here is the INR/USD Chart.
Macro Monday 47 – Major Trading Opportunities In IndiaMacro Monday 47 – Major Trading Opportunities In India
10 Reasons why you need to pay special attention to India’s economy
Before I start there will be major market opportunities in India that will present over the coming 12 - 36 months in India. As an investor or trader, you cannot ignore this market.
1. India is on track to become the world's 3rd largest economy by 2027, surpassing Japan and Germany (currently India is 5th). This provides a major 3 - 5 year potential investment opportunity in Indian index funds and specific stocks in India.
2. India overtook China as the most populous nation in world in April 2024 (1.435b vs 1.425b).
3. Approximately 65% of India’s population is below the age of 35, and half are below the age of 25. In years to come this will represent a larger innovative workforce with the potential for higher productivity and increased consumer demand from this younger demographic.
4. India has the fastest GDP growth in the world. A minimum of 6% in GDP growth is expected over the next five years, separating it from both the broader emerging market cohort and from slower-growing developed markets. We noted on last weeks Macro Monday that Brazil’s GDP growth was expected to range between 2 – 2.9%, India’s GDP is expected grow at twice this rate.
5. In the shorter term India has a major domestic election concluding in June 2024. Between 1999 – 2019 India's Nifty 50 Stock Index historically tended to exhibit a positive trend six months preceding and following federal elections. A 20.5%+ increase prior to Election conclusion, 3%+ one month after election and 14.4% in the 6 months post-election. Election Season is great for the Indian Stock Market and we are right in the middle of it.
6. India has emerged as a global economic player striking deals with the US, Russian and China, having exceptional relations with all three. India actively participates in international forums and in shaping economic policies. Its presidency of the G20 in 2023 showcased its economic prowess and diplomatic finesse. This all translates into India showcasing that it is in growth mode, but more importantly, that it is economically stable, diverse and reliable.
7. According to Blackrock their emerging market ETF inflows into Indian indexes exceeded $4.4b in 2023 whilst total flows into all other EM countries ETF's combined to only $1.1b, clearly demonstrating a major influx of capital into India ahead of other EM's.
8. Indian equities earnings estimates are predicting a market with potentially prolonged and stable earnings growth. Analysts are expecting general Indian equities to post 13.8% earnings growth in the next 12 months and 14.4% in the next 18 months. Longer-term estimates call for 14.5% year-over-year earnings growth by year-end 2026. There is an incredible opportunity for TA chartist’s and investors to move into individual stock selection with the wind at their backs as the Indian Economy moves into what maybe its golden economic era.
9. Over the past two decades, India’s main stock benchmark, the Nifty 50, has offered 15.0% annualized returns in USD terms, more than double the 6.8% offered by the majority of other global Indexes and this is expected to continue.
10. India has made remarkable progress in reducing extreme poverty. Between 2011 and 2019, the share of the population living in extreme poverty was halved. This trend emulates what China achieved between 1990 and 2011 when they halved the amount of people living in extreme poverty in China. In the decade that followed China became the world’s second-largest economy, surpassing Japan. As mentioned in No.1 above, India is expected to become the 3rd largest economy in the word, overtaking Japan by 2027.
Now that we have a good understanding of this major positive macro-economic trend in India, let’s have a look at some general indices where some great opportunities are present.
Please note that India is firmly on my Radar now and more specific equities charts will be posted as I discover them.
Ishares MSCI India ETF - AMEX:INDA
The iShares India ETF is an exchange-traded fund that aims to track the performance of the MSCI India Index. This index includes large and mid-sized companies in India's equity market.
Here are the top 5 holdings of the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) along with percentage allocations and brief descriptions:
1. Reliance Industries Ltd (8%): Reliance Industries is a conglomerate with interests in various sectors including petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration, telecommunications, and retail. It is one of India's largest companies by market capitalization.
2. ICICI Bank Ltd (5.36%): ICICI Bank is one of the largest private sector banks in India offering a comprehensive range of banking products and financial services to individuals as well as corporate clients.
3. Infosys Ltd (4.41%): Infosys is a global IT consulting and services company that provides software development, maintenance, systems integration, outsourcing, and other technology-related services to clients across industries worldwide.
4. Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd (3.76%): HDFC is a leading provider of housing finance in India. The company offers various loan products and services to individual homebuyers as well as corporate clients engaged in real estate development.
5. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (3.23%): TCS is another major IT consulting and services company from India that offers a wide range of digital transformation solutions to global businesses across industries such as banking & financial services, manufacturing, healthcare, retail, and more.
Please note that these holdings are subject to change over time based on market conditions or fund manager decisions, however this is on the 2024 prospectus. These could be good starting stocks for investors seeking to pick individual stocks in India as they have the backing of analysts in one of the largest funds in the world.
The Ishares India ETF Chart
SUBJECT CHART ABOVE
▫️ Price has broken to new highs and now bounced off the 21 week SMA.
▫️ A potential parallel channel break out with a target at c. $68.00.
▫️ Good risk reward on a potential trade at 4:1. Entry here at $52.97.
▫️ You could raise the stop to of approx. $50 and make it an RR 7:1.
▫️ The DSS Bressert appears to be crossing and about to move upwards but this is not a guarantee yet. This outcome would be ideal.
▫️ Price could revisit the breakout point at c. $50 - $51 which would be a more ideal entry but given the positivity in the Indian market, election season, the fact we are making new highs and are above the 21 SMA, coupled with a DSS Bressert cross looking likely, this is a very reasonable long term set up.A potential parallel channel break out with a target at c. $68.00.
▫️ Good risk reward on a potential trade at 4:1. Entry here at $52.97.
▫️ You could raise the stop to of approx. $50 and make it an RR 7:1.
▫️ The DSS Bressert appears to be crossing and about to move upwards but this is not a guarantee yet. This outcome would be ideal.
Price could revisit the breakout point at c. $50 - $51 which would be a more ideal entry but given the positivity in the Indian market, election season, the fact we are making new highs and are above the 21 SMA, coupled with a DSS Bressert cross looking likely, this is a very reasonable long term set up.
India NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index - $NIFTY_MI
The India NIFTY Midcap Select Index is a stock market index that represents the performance of 25 mid-sized companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India. Stocks are selected from the Nifty Midcap 150 index based on availability for trading in the Futures & Options segment, market cap and average daily turnover. Stock weights are based on free-float market capitalization.
Here are the top 5 holdings of the NIFTY Midcap Select Index along with percentage allocations and brief descriptions:
1. Indian Hotels Co. Ltd (7.1%): IHCL and its subsidiaries bring together a group of brands that offer a fusion of warm Indian hospitality and world-class service. These include Taj – the iconic brand for discerning travelers, SeleQtions, Vivanta, Ginger, and amã Stays & Trails.
2. Persistent Systems Ltd (5.69%): Persistent Systems is a global company specializing in digital engineering and enterprise modernization services. They offer solutions in banking, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, and technology sectors.
3. Cummins India Ltd (5.65%): Cummins designs, manufactures, sells, and services diesel and alternative fuel engines, generators, and related components. They are known for their innovation in power solutions and corporate responsibility.
4. Lupin Ltd (5.40%): Lupin is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company and one of the largest generic pharmaceutical companies by revenue globally. Their key focus areas include pediatrics, cardiovascular, anti-infectives, diabetology, asthma, and anti-tuberculosis.
5. Housing Development Finance Corporation Asset Management Company Ltd (5.21%): HDFC AMC operates as an investment management firm, offering portfolio management and advisory services to individuals, institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies in India.
Please note that these holdings are subject to change over time based on market conditions or fund manager decisions, however this is on the 2024 prospectus.
The Chart
▫️ The India NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index chart is more promising than the Ishares MSCI India ETF.
▫️ There is a defined upward channel under which the 21 week SMA is providing support.
▫️We have broken recent highs, local resistance and a have a DSS Bressert Cross turning up. All three are bullish signals.
▫️A great risk reward set up is available here at 11:1. You can alter this to suit your risk tolerance or how long you want to remain in the trade. I would be inclined to lower the stop because the RR is weighted heavily to the upside.
▫️It is possible that we get a retest of the breakout area also, but given the DSS Bressert Cross and upwards momentum, I lean more directly bullish.
Indian Rupee (INR) Currency Risk
There is a currency risk with the second trade in the NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index as it is denominated in the Indian Rupee (INR) which has been on a long term decline against the USD since Aug 2011. If we were to move to the bottom of the current long term pennant we could lose c.5% in currency devaluation in this trade. This could happen over a couple of months, so its something to keep an eye on.
Here is the INR/USD Chart for reference:
Summary:
There is a unique opportunity to make significant returns from one of the largest and fastest growing countries in the world.
I listed 10 reasons why India's economy has major promise:
1. Projected to 3rd largest Economy by 2027
2. Largest Population in the world (since Apr 2024)
3. 50% of population are <25 years of age, 65%<35
4. Fastest GDP growth in the world at 6%
5. Election Season = 14 - 17% return historically
(within 8 months of current juncture in May 2024)
6. India's presidency of the G20 in 2023 showcased its economic prowess and diplomatic finesse.
7. Three times more capital flowing into India ETF's vs other emerging market ETF's
8. Analysts predict 14.5% YoY growth in Indian Equities.
9. Over the past two decades India's Nifty 50 has offered 15.0% annualized returns in USD terms
10. In India the share of the population living in extreme poverty was halved between 2011-2019
We then looked at two India Indexes that are looking very positive and have a great risk:reward trade set ups in the $NIFTY_MI and the $INDA. We also covered off some of the indexes individual holdings as these might be worth looking at.
Finally we created awareness of the currency risk that exists on the $NIFTY_MI chart. If we want to take advantage of this blooming economy in more specific and targeted ways, we will likely need to trade in the Indian Rupee XETR:INR at some stage. So we need to be familiar with the chart and the currency. We projected that it could decline by 5% against the dollar over a 6 - 12 month period so this should be factored in. This is not a prediction. It could show strenght against the dollar and break out of its downward pennant. Time will tell.
All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the South America market has performed. I hope its helpful.
PUKA
Binance Officially Registers With Indian Regulator for $260 BlnBinance, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, recently received official registration from India's Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) after a prolonged dispute with regulators. The FIU's approval marks the second time an offshore crypto exchange has been granted such a registration, the first being KuCoin. However, the news has been followed by a 2% decline in Binance's native cryptocurrency $BNB.
Binance was one of several global cryptocurrency exchanges that India's FIU had blocked for violating local anti-money laundering laws. As a result, the mobile applications of these exchanges were removed from Google's Play Store and Apple's App Store for Indian users. In the wake of these actions, Binance has been working to obtain official registration from the FIU to resume operations in India.
According to a report by the local news outlet Moneycontrol, Binance is now set to resume its operations in India, having acquired official registration with the FIU. The agency's director, Vivek Aggarwal, confirmed in a workshop conducted by the Bharat Web3 Association in New Delhi that KuCoin has already resumed operations after paying a penalty of INR 3.45 million ($41,303). However, Aggarwal stated that Binance is still in the process of determining its penalty and compliance proceedings.
India is the world's second-largest crypto market, having received $260 billion in cryptocurrencies between July 2022 and June 2023, according to a 2023 global report on crypto by Chainalysis. With its renewed approval and pending compliance procedures, Binance could soon reopen its doors to the country's significant crypto user base.
In summary, Binance has gained official registration with India's FIU, paving the way for the exchange to resume operations in the country. While the penalty and compliance procedures are still being determined, the news is a positive development for Binance and its expansion into the world's second-largest crypto market.
AAPL has IndoChina headwinds SHORTAAPL is here on a 120-minute chart in what appears to be a falling wedge pattern.
As volatility gets compressed further it could break down or break out with a bais for
the latter. I believe that the rise of generic phones in China and Inda with comparable
cameras and other functionality has impacted AAPL as had the rising prices of its
flagship products. Time will tell how this plays out. In the meanwhile, I will consider that
AAPL stays in its wedge and play the top trendline with a short and go long from the
bottom. At present , with price at the upper resistance trendline, I will add to my short
position. I see AAPL staying underneath the 0.5 Fib retracement level of the uptrend for
the time being.
NIFTY Wait for a 1D MA50 pull-back and buy.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) has been trading within a Channel Up since late December 2023 and today it hit the April 10 2024 High. That was a Higher High for the Channel Up and the price immediately got rejected.
Based on the 1D RSI, it may rise some more to its Resistance Zone before getting rejected but this sequence is very similar with the February 02 2024 rejection. Both fractals made clear technical Higher Lows at the bottom of the Channel Up and the February one after the rejection, pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before finding Support and new buyers.
As a result, we are only willing to turn bullish again on the 1D MA50 and then target the Channel's standard target of the 1.382 Fib extension at 23100.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
53000+ if we sustain above neckline!Banking stocks had been outperformers in 2023 but has been laggard until now in 2024! Things are about to turn around in coming week if we sustain above 48400 which is a "Neckline of an ascending triangle" formed on weekly charts of Bank Nifty. Indicators like RSI has already shown signs of a new rally by internal crossover last week. Target which will be activated would be 53000+ while stop loss at 47300.
CONSOLIDATION PHASE IN $SQR TOKENCurrently last to last week breakout was happened in GETTEX:SQR token which is project by Magicsquare.io and backed by Binancelabs.
Currently price rejected and below support line. I am expecting good upside once price break level of $0.61 next resistance will be 0.77$ above which 1.1$ is acting as strong resistance for the $SQR.
Why to buy?
Best time to buy any stock or cryptocurrency is as a early adopters of project or when price trade between consolidation zone. As who knows the next $BTC.