India
BEL Price action BEL seems to come out of box along with making a reverse head and shoulder pattern. Trade with targets of upto 170 , keeping stop loss at level of right shoulder i.e. around 88. The company also seems to improve fundamentally with healthy dividend payout , almost debt free and increased cash flow and assets.
Armageddon II: Nifty Pvt Bank Index ready slide below Mar20 lowPatterns are the basis of finding comfort beyond comfort zones created by news flow.
Same patterns that made me speak quietly in first week of January 2020 that the Nifty Private Bank Index has the strongest and most clear patterns ready for a 35% plus slide are now ready again and on a larger time frame and with greater clarity for a 50% downmove broadly speaking on almost all the private banks in Indian equities complex.
Check out this 2 minute video.
Caveat Emptor: All Market forecasts based on patterns is subject to change as the evolving market confirms the patterns fuertehr or denies them.
Short RIL: Once 1975 breaks. Today's strength may be illusionRIL all time high came way ahead of the Nifty in September 20 itself. Since then it has had made rapid declines and from mid november ran sideways in to a triangular formation.
Today's leap up could turn out to be the final wave e within this triangle that forms a larger degree wave iv.
A goal of 1650 wont be audacious with a review in between at 1840 for take profits or not, but this setup triggers ONLY when RIL futures move below 1975.
It is stocks like Reliance and a few other large caps that took rest after peaking out ahead of the broader market and all side stocks in the derivatives space and cash non derivative stocks created frenzy making a number of "knowing too much" traders get hesitant on the indices. Now with a resumption of the downtrend possible in these biggies and the side-market having frenzied out who knows Nifty may give a deep good 10% correction signal too if it closes below 13585 today.
Stay tuned. Outlook and analysis subject to change, soon as market produces any other pattern or signal! The only sure thing in life is hunger and the other sure thing that relieves from this only one sure thing is death. Rest is all risky!
USDINR: Headed to 75.5Wave A & B are done, wave C is overdue now. At the least C should be equal to A, providing for a ball park goal / target of 75.5.
Rupee getting weaker has seldom coincided with Nifty keeping going higher. Most of the time Stockmarket goes down whenver the value of Rupee goes down. It happened during September-October '20 also within this madenning equity "rally"
Caveat: Do never overstretch intermarket relationships. The Delta of change in the value of Nifty to Change in USDINR is not constant either. This is a broad relationship.
Hear out the entire video recroding for further caveats and how am I using this chart. This chart prevents me to be an equities bull in abandon. Not yet short on equities, yet not willing to expand exposure on the long side on equities. Once the USDINR chart starts producing the C wave and the uptrend line on Nifty breaks thats when one will trade on the short side on equities.
ridethepig | India marking a major highA flawless call in Nifty (Indian Equities) from the highs before Covid to the lows and back up in the opposing direction. We should all have made a killing on India, the pseudo-classical school always considers technical analysis as inferior, however this is not the case.
As a main theme, INR buyers now choose to load for 68-66 which is the new base for 2021. The decade ahead looks positive for India and they will start playing a considerably louder position in geo-politics for the coming years. We are talking about a -8% devaluation from current levels. You can ask, what about pips? Well... pips are for pipsqueak's ... this is macro trading, rather than struggling daily this judgement carries strength in the MT and LT and ought to sound something like "watching paint dry". That is the real truth which my models have discovered about this leg lower in USDINR.
You will find further considerations of the Indian macro picture in the end of year wrap up and the 2021 maps coming in the following weeks.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎