India
Have some markets shown they have already past a mid Jan peak?Some markets seem to have shown that they peaked in mid-January... indicated in their U.S. listed, $USD denominated, ETFs: Russia RSX, Brazil EWZ, India INDA, Thailand THD, Europe EWZ... and also in certain financial markets as indicated by a Commodity Tracking fund DBC, and see also the US Government Bond 5 Year Yield .
India - Long TermLong term, emerging market should outperform US due to high growth potential. India ETF looks particularly interesting to me.
Reasons:
1. Price just broke out of a long horizontal rectangle. Although you are not going to see massive price moves, it is a great asset to own.
2. India is one of the only countries focusing on reducing debt vs increasing in the next 12 months.
3. India is absolute monster in IT space which is the future.
Happy Wednesday, its never wrong to pull profits.
BEL Price action BEL seems to come out of box along with making a reverse head and shoulder pattern. Trade with targets of upto 170 , keeping stop loss at level of right shoulder i.e. around 88. The company also seems to improve fundamentally with healthy dividend payout , almost debt free and increased cash flow and assets.
Armageddon II: Nifty Pvt Bank Index ready slide below Mar20 lowPatterns are the basis of finding comfort beyond comfort zones created by news flow.
Same patterns that made me speak quietly in first week of January 2020 that the Nifty Private Bank Index has the strongest and most clear patterns ready for a 35% plus slide are now ready again and on a larger time frame and with greater clarity for a 50% downmove broadly speaking on almost all the private banks in Indian equities complex.
Check out this 2 minute video.
Caveat Emptor: All Market forecasts based on patterns is subject to change as the evolving market confirms the patterns fuertehr or denies them.
Short RIL: Once 1975 breaks. Today's strength may be illusionRIL all time high came way ahead of the Nifty in September 20 itself. Since then it has had made rapid declines and from mid november ran sideways in to a triangular formation.
Today's leap up could turn out to be the final wave e within this triangle that forms a larger degree wave iv.
A goal of 1650 wont be audacious with a review in between at 1840 for take profits or not, but this setup triggers ONLY when RIL futures move below 1975.
It is stocks like Reliance and a few other large caps that took rest after peaking out ahead of the broader market and all side stocks in the derivatives space and cash non derivative stocks created frenzy making a number of "knowing too much" traders get hesitant on the indices. Now with a resumption of the downtrend possible in these biggies and the side-market having frenzied out who knows Nifty may give a deep good 10% correction signal too if it closes below 13585 today.
Stay tuned. Outlook and analysis subject to change, soon as market produces any other pattern or signal! The only sure thing in life is hunger and the other sure thing that relieves from this only one sure thing is death. Rest is all risky!