India
Chinese white paper, India in cross-hairs & Bank of Australia
China releases white paper, India in the crosshairs, Bank of Australia decision
China has maintained a paused after the US showed trade aggression, apparently, hoping to reach an agreement. Apparently, hopes were not justified. As a result, the so-called “White Paper” was born. The document, which sets out the position of China in order to negotiations with the United States on trade and economic issues. The main message is the following: China does not want a trade war with the United States, but will not avoid it if it is needed. Also, China quite clearly set forth its terms for a deal with the United States: the USA cancelling all duties on goods imported from China.
In addition, China is gradually starting to counterattack. For instance, the investigation began against FedEx Corp. the other day. Huawei accused FedEx of sending two parcels with important commercial documents to the United States. According to the results of the investigations, FedEx Corp. may fall into the list of unreliable companies.
Meanwhile, Trump is planning to open another front of the trade war - the Indian one. From June 5, the States may deprive India of the status of a country with a developing economy, which will exclude the possibility of duty-free export to the United States of more than 2,000 Indian goods.
In general, everything is bad. Morgan Stanley analysts have warned about this that further growth in trade tensions may lead to negative US economic growth as early as Q3 2019. Therefore, our recommendations are: buying safe-haven assets (gold and Japanese yen) and selling the dollar.
From the events of today, it is worth noting the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, at which the Central Bank lowered the rate by 0.25%. This is definitely a bearish signal for the Australian dollar. Given the intensification of the trade war, while AUDUSD is below 0.70, we recommend looking for points for selling of AUDUSD on the intraday basis and the medium-term directions.
Our positions for today: we are continuing to look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will buy the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
TARIFF MAN TO STRIKE GLOBALLY!This is a 6H chart of the DAX. Markets globally are heading south. Even the super-resilient Brazilian Bovespa is beginning to buckle. In this screencast I show what the price action is like for the DAX and why I think the market is exhausting. I may well be totally wrong - but I'll limit how wrong I am with an acceptable stop-loss.
Three main issues plague the DAX and other markets globally:
1. China trade/technology war.
2. Tariff man picking a fight with Mexico
3. And as of a couple days ago Tariff man has squeezed India by ending special trade treatment. (Google is your friend on that one).
From what I see, the house of cards, the Ponzi scheme that is global markets is falling. I'll take my losses in shorting these.
Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade. Opinions here are my own. If you make decisions based on this and you lose your money sue yourself!
YESBANK:NSE Possible buy from 125-30 range.Yesbank has been struggling with the bears from poor results. Seems like a good gains from range of 125-30. (Aiming for 300-310 if hold on technicals).
current rend - Downtrend/bearish
RSI oversold on till daily charts.
Consider fundamentals and enter with confirmations.
GOLD (XAU/USD) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORTPrice is currently moving downwards, making a series of impulses, corrections and continuations. Therefore, bear flag patterns are written all over Gold's wall. I will expect to take a short position once prices breakout of the bear flag pattern and target the 1270 price level.
If prices can break below the 1280 level and push to the downside, it could be a good indication of bearish momentum. As always, let the market reveal its hand and wait for a collapse below entering any short positions. This is because market makers will be looking to trap breakout traders (particularly those waiting to place a short position). Otherwise, only market wizards can forecast the market direction.
(NSE:BEL)_April_10_2019Bharat Electronics Limited is a state-owned electronic, aerospace and defence company with focus on developing and manufacturing electronic, opto-electronic, radar and C4ISR systems. The primary customers are the Indian Armed Forces, Indian Government and the Governments/ Militaries of friendly nations.
Although, the stock price has been in a state of decline since late 2017 - early 2018, the humongous order book along with assured orders, modernization of the Indian armed forces along with push for Make in India make it a very attractive buy for value investors.
Since August 2018, the stock is trading within a channel formed by the red zone in Fibonacci Retracement . As a value investor, I would have preferred to buy in the range of mid Rs.70 - low Rs.80 , however with the Moving Average lMA)ilines indicating that a trend reversal might be in the offing (bear to bull) I would likely put in an order around $90.
The stock offers a dividend of 2.09% with a P/E of about 13 and a P/B of 3, which are pretty respectable overall. From the volume analysis there seems to be strong support at low to mid Rs.70.
If the short MA (50 day, blue line) crosses the long MA (200 day, orange line) it could potentially trigger a bull rally. If this happens it would be typically after the elections with the NDA (which advocates a muscular defence policy) returning to parliament with a majority and after the May Earnings call.
The risk is that the bull run fails to develop and the stock falls to the Rs.75 zone. However, the triple bottom (pink arrows) and existing downward momentum lends to the evidence that the stock is poised to go up.
For more such analysis visit my website at advisacorp.com
NIFTY : Time To Short Towards 10000.Amid all the Election noise, Worlds biggest democracy has set poll date to 23rd may 2019 and will decide the future of PM Modi. I tend to believe that NIFTY will be in sharp correction of C and will continue towards secular bull upside printing iv of (3) of 5 in EW. So for next weeks looks for sell setups and trade towards.
Jai Garvi Gujarat.
Jai Hind.
Robus.
Holding above Weekly t-line pushing higher every week BULLISHGood volume in this stock as of late & something to keep an eye on.
I can see this spike on next news on the final project approval by government
Got a good feeling that it could happen in April.
Price continues to hold the 20ma & closed above weekly t-line
37-40p target for 1st slice although it could go higher with right news possibly 68p as last time a few weeks ago.
India Bulls Housing LongIndia Bulls Housing Trades using Blue Sky Plus Indicator. Message or Comment to get a free trial of the indicator.
NIFTY: MAKE YOUR MIND UP TIMEWe are close to "make your mind up time" in NIFTY 50. Are you a right shoulder? Or are you the start of a new bull trend. If you're a right shoulder, we are close to the sweet spot for a short. Stoch RSI is overbought, curling over, 21 MA is down.
I will initiate short positions next week on a reaction high.
Indian Stock Market Outlook for 2018 The two-year bull run of Indian stock market since March 2016 is due for a breather. Sensex touched a new all-time high of 36443 on January 29, 2018, ushering new euphoria amongst people. Markets do not go straight up or down, they do so in steps. We are expecting a step-down 2018 for 90% of Indian equities. And we do not expect the new highs to be taken out for the better half of 2019.The reason for a bearish outlook for Indian markets for us is purely technical. We do not try to link fundamentals with our reason so as to appease the economists. What this means for an average investor is to either sit on cash or be very stock specific. Following the broader markets – it’s going to be very hard to generate a positive return on investment this year. How deep the correction is going to be will become clearer when the market makes a few lower lows and lower highs.
We, on this blog, are trying to bring you information and ideas to create wealth amidst all odds. Our investment philosophy is to be in the know of events unfolding that lead to changes either positive or negative – come out as a winner, regardless. Keep coming back to this blog to know what we have our eyes on. We will give you plenty of stock ideas so as to make your year a fruitful one.
Elliott Wave View favoring more upside in NIFTYHello Traders,
NIFTY is showing an incomplete sequence to the upside in the short term, favoring more upside while above 11/26 low (10487.1). Near term, cycle from 10/26 low (10004) remains in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Blue Wave (A) ended at 10774.7 as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure and blue wave (B) ended at 10487.13 low.
Blue of wave (A) unfolded as an impulse where red wave 1 ended at 10285.1, red wave 2 ended at 10105.10, red wave 3 ended at 10619.55, Red wave 4 ended at 10440.55, and red wave 5 of (A) ended at 10774.7. Blue wave (B) pullback unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where red wave W ended at 10562.35, red wave X ended at 10646.25 and red wave Y of (B) ended at 10487.13.
Up from 10487.13 low, blue wave (C) is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure where red wave 1 ended at 10941.20 and red wave 2 pullback is proposed to be completed at 10831 and ideally should extend higher as long as it stays above that level but more importantly above 10487.13 low. We don’t like selling it as the right side is to the upside.