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NIFTY may touch 15000 before reaching 22500!Yes! You read that right. So there's a technical reason why NSE:NIFTY is choppy and sideways this past year and a half. In the monthly timeframe, it seems like we're in a Wave 4 Correction that started in Oct'21 when NSE:NIFTY first touched 18000 and is still ongoing. Now if we zoom in on the weekly timeframe, we see something else: An Expanded Flat triangle pattern that's a common occurrence within a major corrective wave as per Wave theory. The fake breakout of the Oct'21 monthly candle in Nov'22 only confirms this phenomenon and is termed an 'Overthrow' in Wave lingo. Now for the expanded flat pattern to be complete in the weekly timeframe, and along with it, the completion of Wave 4 monthly, we need an 'Underthrow'. Meaning, the price should break down the previous major swing monthly (June'22) which is at 15182, and reverse from there for a major Wave 5 impulse! We also notice lately that 18100 is turning out to be strong resistance. This is the Golden Level (0.618) in Weekly. Despite touching 18255 this last expiry (4th May '23), NIFTY reversed strongly and closed below 18100 in weekly. Finally, there's seems to a head and shoulder-like pattern starting to form in Weekly. Even though its too early to confirm with the final leg of the right shoulder yet to form, I reckon with the Wave theory supporting, this should form and if that happens, the technical target as per H&S rules comes out to be around 14850. Maybe this happens, maybe it doesn't! Who really knows? The market can enter into a complex corrective phase and hover more around the 17500-18200 box before breaking out without trending down. This is also a possibility. But ask yourself this question, the Indian story is really promising. The global economy looks up to India as a shining star. Our economy, banking system is doing really well. Fundamentals look strong. Then why is the market still hovering between 17500-18100 since Oct'21? What's really stopping bulls from charging further and breaking 18900? The price action in the next few days from hereon is extremely crucial. If any one candle closes above 18200 in a monthly or even weekly timeframe, then we might see this bullish trend continue further. But if the market stays below 18100 these next few days or weeks, then we might see a minor correction, first, till 17380 . And if this level is breached in weekly, then a major correction till 14800-15000 is imminent as per Wave and technical analysis .
NSE:NIFTYShort
by hsk_94
22
On a sugar high, owing to weak supplySugar prices have soared this year, up +21.6%1 owing to concerns about tight global supplies. Lower Indian supply coupled with weaker than expected output from Thailand, (at the second and third largest sugar exporters respectively) continue to provide a tailwind for sugar prices. While Brazil’s harvest in the coming months is expected to be strong, logistical hurdles owing to higher exports of soybean and corn could restrict supplies over the coming months thereby supporting sugar prices higher. Net speculative positioning on sugar is 139% above the 5-year average2. Over the past month, short positioning has declined 16% highlighting the improvement of sentiment on the sugar market. Weaker sugar supply from India India is one of the largest exporters of white sugar, but shipments are controlled by quotas. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) latest report indicate that Indian sugar production fell marginally to 28.2mt so far this season through 15 March3. ISMA cut its sugar production estimate for 2022/23 crop year to 33.5mn tons from 34.5mn tons on account of lower output and more use of sugarcane for biofuel. Sugarcane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing state, could end 45-60 days earlier than last year because heavy rainfall has reduced the availability of sugarcane. Sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to total a mere 12.8mn tons according to the chief of State’s sugar commission, nearly 1mn tons less than previously anticipated. Lower sugar output is raising concerns that the India government could restrict additional exports. More use of sugar diverted to India’s Biofuel program At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing an aggressive biofuel program that will see more sugar cane diverted to make ethanol to help curb air pollution and reduce oil import bill. The biofuel program also lies in the interest of farmers by making use of excess local production and boosting their incomes. This season, the government plans to divert 5mn tons of sugar to make ethanol, up from 3.6mn tons a year earlier4. The eventual goal is to divert 6mn tons annually toward fuel production by 2025. Lower sugar production in Thailand remains price supportive for sugar Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar board confirmed that Thailand crushed 93.88mt of sugarcane in 2022/23, lower than the initial estimates for more than 100mt of cane5. As a result, the bumper crop expected in Thailand is also falling short, resulting in 2022/23 total sugar output in Thailand will be at around 11mn tons (versus the 12mn tons expected earlier in the season)5. Lower than expected output from Thailand combined with less supply from India remains price supportive for sugar. The front end of the sugar futures curve remains in backwardation yielding a positive roll yield of 2.9% reflecting tightness in the market for short term balances. Logistical bottlenecks could restrict supply from Brazil Looking ahead, progress of the sugar crop in the Centre- South region of Brazil remains a key headwind for sugar prices. Brazil sugar production is expected to be over 36.5mn tons in 2023/24, only slightly less than the all-time high of 38.4mn tons seen in the 2020/21 marketing year6. However, shipping Brazilian sugar could face delays in the Port of Santos as it competes with exports of other Brazilian grains such as corn and soybean. Road freight is also likely to face significant price increases. Santos terminals receive sugar and grains by trains and trucks. However, competition from transporting soybeans has been taking space away from sugar in train cars. Higher freight prices impact the margins of the mills. Likelihood of El Niño, if realised, remains price supportive for sugar With La Niña over, there is now a chance the Pacific Ocean surface could warm later this year and spark what is called El Niño. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the likelihood of an El Niño emerging between August and October to 74% from 61% a month ago. One common knock-on effect is higher precipitation volumes which would be positive for sugar prices over the medium term with fewer milling days and sugar production. El Niño could bring relief to drought parched areas of Argentina and southern US, but it could also lead to hotter and drier conditions in parts of Asia and Australia. Conclusion Restricted supply from India alongside lower supply from Thailand have helped sugar along its upward journey so far. Looking ahead, with the Argentinian soybean crop forecasts struggling in the face of the ongoing drought, we expect Brazil to do a lot of the heavy lifting by offsetting the shortfall in supply of both soybean and corn. This is why, logistical hurdles are likely to impede the supply of Brazilian sugar thereby supporting sugar prices higher over the medium term.
ICEUS:SB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
SUGAR BULISH SCENARIOPrice boost and upward momentum on Raw Sugar, after India declared that a downward revision on its sugar cane crush. Being the second largest manufacturer of sugar in the world, this news had a positive effect on the price of the raw material. Both MACD and RSI are confirming the current trend. If it continues, the price might reach levels of 25.539 As a pivot point levels of 22.43 can be used, and if the price breaks below it, can test levels of 21.58 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
PEPPERSTONE:SUGARLong
by legacyFXofficial
Gold, China, BRICS vs. US Dollar HegemonyIn the contemporary global landscape, compelling arguments exist for a pro-Gold, pro-China, pro-BRICS case and a pro-US, pro-USD case. This extensive analysis will explore both perspectives, starting with the pro-Gold, pro-China, and pro-BRICS cases. The global commodity supply and demand pricing dynamics reveal a shift in gold businesses from the US to China. Since 2013, gold demand in Asia has led to the migration of vaults, physical and financial trading operations, and even exchanges to the East. This shift signifies an increasing connection between oil, gold, and the Chinese Yuan, as evidenced by the gold-for-oil trade between Russia and China in 2017. Rumors of Saudi Arabia using renminbi from oil sales to buy gold on the Shanghai Exchange also indicate a growing connection between these commodities and the Chinese currency. The BRICS coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has formed to counter G7 control and assert their interests in the global landscape. The US freezing Russia's foreign currency reserves and cutting them off from the SWIFT system has catalyzed the emergence of Bretton Woods III, a new era of commodity-based neutral reserve currencies. As the US hegemony declines, a new world order with multiple powers based on commodities production and trade is emerging. However, the pro-US, pro-USD case argues that despite concerns surrounding the dollar's hegemony, it remains a crucial player in global transactions. China's economy faces growing debt, an expanding real estate bubble, and potentially inflated GDP numbers. Moreover, the yuan (RMB) faces significant challenges in becoming a globally accepted reserve currency, primarily due to China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance. In contrast, the US dollar remains dominant in global central bank reserves and transactions. This is partly due to the dollar's resilience and the perception of the US's security and stability. Although reserves have shifted for countries with closer trade relations with China, the US dollar remains the world standard. The push for de-dollarization has gained momentum recently, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia. However, moving away from the US dollar system is challenging for several reasons, including the US dollar's dominance in global markets, the yuan's limitations as a globally accepted alternative to the US dollar, OPEC members continuing to price their oil in US dollars, and the obstacles faced by BRICS nations in creating a new currency to facilitate trade and promote de-dollarization. In conclusion, while there are signs of a shift in the balance of global reserve currencies, it is premature to predict the decline of the US dollar's dominance in international markets. The pro-Gold, pro-China, pro-BRICS case highlights the increasing role of gold and the emergence of a new world order with multiple powers based on commodities production and trade. However, the pro-US, pro-USD case emphasizes the resilience and stability of the US dollar and the challenges faced by alternative reserve currencies, such as the yuan, in replacing the US dollar on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
by BitcoinMacro
Why I knew what I knew.A fall of 200 points and then gain back of 150 points is what we all expect at situational understanding of todays graph. But I had been researching over past 3 months the WAVES that rule over indices, I completely eradicated all of the Fundamental Reasons for example news crashes or something like Banking Crisis as the reasons for any downtrend and uptrend for once, even though they are the complete reasons. However there exists a Natural Pattern in Technical Analysis, it is the study of behaviours of Participants in a Financial Market, and Indices are the best representation of that behaviour. So coincidently the time period I studied might have elapsed over same conclusive results of wave analysis but I was dead sure in such a bullish momentum that was taking indices over the edges of Buy Signals and every one opinionated buy calls, yet my research was telling me to short NIFTY50 options. Dow Jones Industrial Average rules the exact parameters of Nifty50 the Indian Index as it gauges it to gap up if Dow futures are up or down if they are down. So the methodology to study waves that I implemented is a simple task of figuring out the weightage stocks that are moving the indices, calculate their Fibonacci sequence, sort their demand and supplies and being an analyst at beginners level I also studied the RRG graphs, the relative strengths, the PMOs, the Sectoral Rotation and concluded that April is for the first fifteen days fully bearish.
TVC:DJIShort
by INDEXKING0
2