WOCKPHARMA WOCKPHARMA has completed a long term correction cycle and now could be a good buy with targets above 2,000 in the long term. The invalidation for this analysis remains at 135.20 (marked level).
India
SAIL (Steel Authority of IndiaSAIL - has completed its long term correction and has started moving up again. The stock is a good pick for long term as it is likely to make new highs in the coming years.
KOPRAN - A Long Term BuyKOPRAN (Log Scale) - The stock has started moving up after correcting almost 80% of the previous wave. This is a long term scenario where the stock will make new highs in the next few months and years.
The new india Assurance to take long entryThe stock of the NIACL is to take a long entry after the Bo of the marked TL above 110 for the next target of 125-130 with an SL of 98. Stock is at trading a Highly conflux area. BO of the TL will confirm the trend change in the stock & high probability to move from the area. This is for your educational purpose only.
BANKNIFTY - Diagonal Formation - Elliott Wave BankNifty is currently moving higher and will reach the upper trend line before starting its correction. Bullish moves can be expected for the next few months before the index finally starts correcting the larger move.
On a sugar high, owing to weak supplySugar prices have soared this year, up +21.6%1 owing to concerns about tight global supplies. Lower Indian supply coupled with weaker than expected output from Thailand, (at the second and third largest sugar exporters respectively) continue to provide a tailwind for sugar prices. While Brazil’s harvest in the coming months is expected to be strong, logistical hurdles owing to higher exports of soybean and corn could restrict supplies over the coming months thereby supporting sugar prices higher.
Net speculative positioning on sugar is 139% above the 5-year average2. Over the past month, short positioning has declined 16% highlighting the improvement of sentiment on the sugar market.
Weaker sugar supply from India
India is one of the largest exporters of white sugar, but shipments are controlled by quotas. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) latest report indicate that Indian sugar production fell marginally to 28.2mt so far this season through 15 March3. ISMA cut its sugar production estimate for 2022/23 crop year to 33.5mn tons from 34.5mn tons on account of lower output and more use of sugarcane for biofuel.
Sugarcane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing state, could end 45-60 days earlier than last year because heavy rainfall has reduced the availability of sugarcane. Sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to total a mere 12.8mn tons according to the chief of State’s sugar commission, nearly 1mn tons less than previously anticipated. Lower sugar output is raising concerns that the India government could restrict additional exports.
More use of sugar diverted to India’s Biofuel program
At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing an aggressive biofuel program that will see more sugar cane diverted to make ethanol to help curb air pollution and reduce oil import bill. The biofuel program also lies in the interest of farmers by making use of excess local production and boosting their incomes. This season, the government plans to divert 5mn tons of sugar to make ethanol, up from 3.6mn tons a year earlier4. The eventual goal is to divert 6mn tons annually toward fuel production by 2025.
Lower sugar production in Thailand remains price supportive for sugar
Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar board confirmed that Thailand crushed 93.88mt of sugarcane in 2022/23, lower than the initial estimates for more than 100mt of cane5. As a result, the bumper crop expected in Thailand is also falling short, resulting in 2022/23 total sugar output in Thailand will be at around 11mn tons (versus the 12mn tons expected earlier in the season)5.
Lower than expected output from Thailand combined with less supply from India remains price supportive for sugar. The front end of the sugar futures curve remains in backwardation yielding a positive roll yield of 2.9% reflecting tightness in the market for short term balances.
Logistical bottlenecks could restrict supply from Brazil
Looking ahead, progress of the sugar crop in the Centre- South region of Brazil remains a key headwind for sugar prices. Brazil sugar production is expected to be over 36.5mn tons in 2023/24, only slightly less than the all-time high of 38.4mn tons seen in the 2020/21 marketing year6. However, shipping Brazilian sugar could face delays in the Port of Santos as it competes with exports of other Brazilian grains such as corn and soybean. Road freight is also likely to face significant price increases. Santos terminals receive sugar and grains by trains and trucks. However, competition from transporting soybeans has been taking space away from sugar in train cars. Higher freight prices impact the margins of the mills.
Likelihood of El Niño, if realised, remains price supportive for sugar
With La Niña over, there is now a chance the Pacific Ocean surface could warm later this year and spark what is called El Niño. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the likelihood of an El Niño emerging between August and October to 74% from 61% a month ago. One common knock-on effect is higher precipitation volumes which would be positive for sugar prices over the medium term with fewer milling days and sugar production. El Niño could bring relief to drought parched areas of Argentina and southern US, but it could also lead to hotter and drier conditions in parts of Asia and Australia.
Conclusion
Restricted supply from India alongside lower supply from Thailand have helped sugar along its upward journey so far. Looking ahead, with the Argentinian soybean crop forecasts struggling in the face of the ongoing drought, we expect Brazil to do a lot of the heavy lifting by offsetting the shortfall in supply of both soybean and corn. This is why, logistical hurdles are likely to impede the supply of Brazilian sugar thereby supporting sugar prices higher over the medium term.
BUY TRADE WITH A GOOD RR 4:1
Price is coming from a Monthly Demand and now is in a Daily Demand the pullback is over and ther Reward to Risk ratio is also good.
Hence a Long one,,,
Enjoy the rise!!!
SUGAR BULISH SCENARIOPrice boost and upward momentum on Raw Sugar, after India declared that a downward revision on its sugar cane crush. Being the second largest manufacturer of sugar in the world, this news had a positive effect on the price of the raw material.
Both MACD and RSI are confirming the current trend. If it continues, the price might reach levels of 25.539
As a pivot point levels of 22.43 can be used, and if the price breaks below it, can test levels of 21.58
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Gold, China, BRICS vs. US Dollar HegemonyIn the contemporary global landscape, compelling arguments exist for a pro-Gold, pro-China, pro-BRICS case and a pro-US, pro-USD case. This extensive analysis will explore both perspectives, starting with the pro-Gold, pro-China, and pro-BRICS cases.
The global commodity supply and demand pricing dynamics reveal a shift in gold businesses from the US to China. Since 2013, gold demand in Asia has led to the migration of vaults, physical and financial trading operations, and even exchanges to the East. This shift signifies an increasing connection between oil, gold, and the Chinese Yuan, as evidenced by the gold-for-oil trade between Russia and China in 2017. Rumors of Saudi Arabia using renminbi from oil sales to buy gold on the Shanghai Exchange also indicate a growing connection between these commodities and the Chinese currency.
The BRICS coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has formed to counter G7 control and assert their interests in the global landscape. The US freezing Russia's foreign currency reserves and cutting them off from the SWIFT system has catalyzed the emergence of Bretton Woods III, a new era of commodity-based neutral reserve currencies. As the US hegemony declines, a new world order with multiple powers based on commodities production and trade is emerging.
However, the pro-US, pro-USD case argues that despite concerns surrounding the dollar's hegemony, it remains a crucial player in global transactions. China's economy faces growing debt, an expanding real estate bubble, and potentially inflated GDP numbers. Moreover, the yuan (RMB) faces significant challenges in becoming a globally accepted reserve currency, primarily due to China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance.
In contrast, the US dollar remains dominant in global central bank reserves and transactions. This is partly due to the dollar's resilience and the perception of the US's security and stability. Although reserves have shifted for countries with closer trade relations with China, the US dollar remains the world standard.
The push for de-dollarization has gained momentum recently, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia. However, moving away from the US dollar system is challenging for several reasons, including the US dollar's dominance in global markets, the yuan's limitations as a globally accepted alternative to the US dollar, OPEC members continuing to price their oil in US dollars, and the obstacles faced by BRICS nations in creating a new currency to facilitate trade and promote de-dollarization.
In conclusion, while there are signs of a shift in the balance of global reserve currencies, it is premature to predict the decline of the US dollar's dominance in international markets. The pro-Gold, pro-China, pro-BRICS case highlights the increasing role of gold and the emergence of a new world order with multiple powers based on commodities production and trade. However, the pro-US, pro-USD case emphasizes the resilience and stability of the US dollar and the challenges faced by alternative reserve currencies, such as the yuan, in replacing the US dollar on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
Indian Oil Corp (IOC)IOC - Elliott Wave View.
The stock is currently correcting and will likely go higher in wave 3.
BANKNIFTY - Correction PhaseBANKNIFTY - Correction taking place in WXY structure. The index will likely drop this year as a part of correction.
Why I knew what I knew.A fall of 200 points and then gain back of 150 points is what we all expect at situational understanding of todays graph. But I had been researching over past 3 months the WAVES that rule over indices, I completely eradicated all of the Fundamental Reasons for example news crashes or something like Banking Crisis as the reasons for any downtrend and uptrend for once, even though they are the complete reasons. However there exists a Natural Pattern in Technical Analysis, it is the study of behaviours of Participants in a Financial Market, and Indices are the best representation of that behaviour. So coincidently the time period I studied might have elapsed over same conclusive results of wave analysis but I was dead sure in such a bullish momentum that was taking indices over the edges of Buy Signals and every one opinionated buy calls, yet my research was telling me to short NIFTY50 options. Dow Jones Industrial Average rules the exact parameters of Nifty50 the Indian Index as it gauges it to gap up if Dow futures are up or down if they are down. So the methodology to study waves that I implemented is a simple task of figuring out the weightage stocks that are moving the indices, calculate their Fibonacci sequence, sort their demand and supplies and being an analyst at beginners level I also studied the RRG graphs, the relative strengths, the PMOs, the Sectoral Rotation and concluded that April is for the first fifteen days fully bearish.
Bank of India Breakout BK of India is very crucial level if stock break the pattern and close the candle with good strength.
We will see a good price movement in upcoming Days [/
Always do your own Analysis first
DRREDDY.... BULLISH. - Healthcare and Pharma SectorNSE:DRREDDY
This stock is fundamentally at ALL TIME HIGH but its PE at the lower band......
stock taking support of the major trendline (RED)
if it breaks 4615 level in WEEKLY TIMEFRAME with strong volume, then it can show a massive rally.
this is all for educational purpose, not a stock recommendation for trading.
invest at your own risk.
Bharti below 200 with a consolidating flagBharti breaks key support and ends below 200. Take an itm put as iv is multi month low. 760 put is just 3 bucks if extrinsic value
Keep a stop at 760 which is the 200. The put will lose 50 percent at the stop. Target of 710 which is the next logical support.
Bonus, bharti coming out of a multi day squeeze and flag, which is fairly unique
SENSEX Short - Doubletop
Called the last top in October 21, calling this double top in Dec 22.
Longterm bullish on this market but looks like more value to be had at lower prices.
25% target. 31% Stretch target
Best, Hard Forky
india vix taking a divesome good days finally back usdx is down vix is down stocks look good for now just the dip now
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WiproMost of the price action views for a stock are reliable and here on the chart of Wipro; formation of Triple Bottom Pattern clearly depicting a new signal and will provide a good opportunity after its reversal from price of 377. Whereas new orders will arise at 400 witha target of 60points and the booton of the pattern will be a stoploss for the trade.
Thank you.
Hope you like my view.
UPL UPL - Elliott Wave View.
The downward correction remains pending with the formation of triangle. Invalidation at the high of wave E.
SBI (STATE BANK OF INDIA)The idea is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. The rally in PSU Banks seems incomplete and SBI could reach higher levels before making a corrective move.
If the ending diagonal doesn't invalidate, a reversal is likely from the upper trendline.
