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USOIL Medium Term UpdateI promised in the previous post that I would discuss medium-term charts. I've been calling for an abrupt rise in ABC flat for a while now. However, price movements develop much more slowly than the human brain expects. I believe I read about this bias in books by R. Prechter on the fundamentals of Elliott Wave analysis. This time, there is another layer of uncertainty because Brent did not follow WTI in the flash crash on May 4, which marked the local bottom (wave B low) for WTI but not for Brent. While my expectation of the impending impulse wave C matches the WTI chart perfectly, it is not the same for Brent, where I anticipate an ending diagonal to complete the correction. This weekend is the much-awaited OPEC+ meeting. However, as I mentioned in my previous post, I suspect limited progress in production-cut talks or a tepid market reaction to any agreed cuts. OPEC core members are grumbling about the cuts as Russia's seaborne exports hit all-time highs to markets that OPEC countries consider their fiefdom, forcing them to redirect volumes to the EU, missing out on shipping. Therefore I doubt OPEC+ can come up with a decision that will drive oil prices sharply higher in June-July and keep them elevated by the end of the summer. OPEC+ decisions usually lag the market developments and tend to cause short-lived fluctuations at best (though painful when unexpected). Instead, war drums and EU discussions about the 11th sanctions package could be the catalysts. The EU is considering prohibiting EU entities from purchasing refined products made of Russian oil. Read - India can no longer buy cheap Russian crude to produce diesel and ship to the EU. I have some ideas about what it could mean for energy markets in the long run, which I will elaborate on in a website article.
TVC:USOIL
by Energeia_Charta
RELIANCE IND - ON A VERY IMPORTANT KEY LEVELFor more updates, please follow my TradingView page, and if you find the content useful, kindly hit the "thumbs up" button to show your support. If you have any queries regarding trading, please feel free to send me a direct message on TradingView. Additionally, please share this content with your friends who may find it beneficial. Please note that any trading updates provided here are for educational purposes only, and it is always advisable to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. It is important to ensure that all conditions are met before following any trade plan suggested in this update.
NSE:RELIANCEShort
by Profitlio_Trading
NIFTY may touch 15000 before reaching 22500!Yes! You read that right. So there's a technical reason why NSE:NIFTY is choppy and sideways this past year and a half. In the monthly timeframe, it seems like we're in a Wave 4 Correction that started in Oct'21 when NSE:NIFTY first touched 18000 and is still ongoing. Now if we zoom in on the weekly timeframe, we see something else: An Expanded Flat triangle pattern that's a common occurrence within a major corrective wave as per Wave theory. The fake breakout of the Oct'21 monthly candle in Nov'22 only confirms this phenomenon and is termed an 'Overthrow' in Wave lingo. Now for the expanded flat pattern to be complete in the weekly timeframe, and along with it, the completion of Wave 4 monthly, we need an 'Underthrow'. Meaning, the price should break down the previous major swing monthly (June'22) which is at 15182, and reverse from there for a major Wave 5 impulse! We also notice lately that 18100 is turning out to be strong resistance. This is the Golden Level (0.618) in Weekly. Despite touching 18255 this last expiry (4th May '23), NIFTY reversed strongly and closed below 18100 in weekly. Finally, there's seems to a head and shoulder-like pattern starting to form in Weekly. Even though its too early to confirm with the final leg of the right shoulder yet to form, I reckon with the Wave theory supporting, this should form and if that happens, the technical target as per H&S rules comes out to be around 14850. Maybe this happens, maybe it doesn't! Who really knows? The market can enter into a complex corrective phase and hover more around the 17500-18200 box before breaking out without trending down. This is also a possibility. But ask yourself this question, the Indian story is really promising. The global economy looks up to India as a shining star. Our economy, banking system is doing really well. Fundamentals look strong. Then why is the market still hovering between 17500-18100 since Oct'21? What's really stopping bulls from charging further and breaking 18900? The price action in the next few days from hereon is extremely crucial. If any one candle closes above 18200 in a monthly or even weekly timeframe, then we might see this bullish trend continue further. But if the market stays below 18100 these next few days or weeks, then we might see a minor correction, first, till 17380 . And if this level is breached in weekly, then a major correction till 14800-15000 is imminent as per Wave and technical analysis .
NSE:NIFTYShort
by hsk_94
22
On a sugar high, owing to weak supplySugar prices have soared this year, up +21.6%1 owing to concerns about tight global supplies. Lower Indian supply coupled with weaker than expected output from Thailand, (at the second and third largest sugar exporters respectively) continue to provide a tailwind for sugar prices. While Brazil’s harvest in the coming months is expected to be strong, logistical hurdles owing to higher exports of soybean and corn could restrict supplies over the coming months thereby supporting sugar prices higher. Net speculative positioning on sugar is 139% above the 5-year average2. Over the past month, short positioning has declined 16% highlighting the improvement of sentiment on the sugar market. Weaker sugar supply from India India is one of the largest exporters of white sugar, but shipments are controlled by quotas. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) latest report indicate that Indian sugar production fell marginally to 28.2mt so far this season through 15 March3. ISMA cut its sugar production estimate for 2022/23 crop year to 33.5mn tons from 34.5mn tons on account of lower output and more use of sugarcane for biofuel. Sugarcane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing state, could end 45-60 days earlier than last year because heavy rainfall has reduced the availability of sugarcane. Sugar production in Maharashtra is likely to total a mere 12.8mn tons according to the chief of State’s sugar commission, nearly 1mn tons less than previously anticipated. Lower sugar output is raising concerns that the India government could restrict additional exports. More use of sugar diverted to India’s Biofuel program At the same time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing an aggressive biofuel program that will see more sugar cane diverted to make ethanol to help curb air pollution and reduce oil import bill. The biofuel program also lies in the interest of farmers by making use of excess local production and boosting their incomes. This season, the government plans to divert 5mn tons of sugar to make ethanol, up from 3.6mn tons a year earlier4. The eventual goal is to divert 6mn tons annually toward fuel production by 2025. Lower sugar production in Thailand remains price supportive for sugar Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar board confirmed that Thailand crushed 93.88mt of sugarcane in 2022/23, lower than the initial estimates for more than 100mt of cane5. As a result, the bumper crop expected in Thailand is also falling short, resulting in 2022/23 total sugar output in Thailand will be at around 11mn tons (versus the 12mn tons expected earlier in the season)5. Lower than expected output from Thailand combined with less supply from India remains price supportive for sugar. The front end of the sugar futures curve remains in backwardation yielding a positive roll yield of 2.9% reflecting tightness in the market for short term balances. Logistical bottlenecks could restrict supply from Brazil Looking ahead, progress of the sugar crop in the Centre- South region of Brazil remains a key headwind for sugar prices. Brazil sugar production is expected to be over 36.5mn tons in 2023/24, only slightly less than the all-time high of 38.4mn tons seen in the 2020/21 marketing year6. However, shipping Brazilian sugar could face delays in the Port of Santos as it competes with exports of other Brazilian grains such as corn and soybean. Road freight is also likely to face significant price increases. Santos terminals receive sugar and grains by trains and trucks. However, competition from transporting soybeans has been taking space away from sugar in train cars. Higher freight prices impact the margins of the mills. Likelihood of El Niño, if realised, remains price supportive for sugar With La Niña over, there is now a chance the Pacific Ocean surface could warm later this year and spark what is called El Niño. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the likelihood of an El Niño emerging between August and October to 74% from 61% a month ago. One common knock-on effect is higher precipitation volumes which would be positive for sugar prices over the medium term with fewer milling days and sugar production. El Niño could bring relief to drought parched areas of Argentina and southern US, but it could also lead to hotter and drier conditions in parts of Asia and Australia. Conclusion Restricted supply from India alongside lower supply from Thailand have helped sugar along its upward journey so far. Looking ahead, with the Argentinian soybean crop forecasts struggling in the face of the ongoing drought, we expect Brazil to do a lot of the heavy lifting by offsetting the shortfall in supply of both soybean and corn. This is why, logistical hurdles are likely to impede the supply of Brazilian sugar thereby supporting sugar prices higher over the medium term.
ICEUS:SB1!
by aneekaguptaWTE