Indianmarket
Buy INDIA CEMENTSScenarios have shown a reversal of trend. Divergence coming in with braking of resistance may have triggered a bullish momentum now. Currently it seems the stock has made a slight correction after having shown a minor bullish rally and this correction should now come to an end with fresh bullish pattern again forming at key Fibonacci level of 0.618 which happens to be around 108. 108 has been a key level in the past also which indicates it may again act as support and stock may resume it's freshly initiated bull move. A decisive close above 120 may provide for even higher targets of around 130.
Buy ONGCONGC looks good to buy for all time frames. A breakout is soon possible indicating a good bullish run towards 190 in short term, with Crude Oil on support ONGC may soon breakout. For long term a cross of 205 would open up gates for higher targets. There is a possibility of this stock never showing these rates again. This is an excellent long term pick and hence one should stay invested.
Is it right time to buy L&T Finance Holdings???There are 2 aspects to analyze any stock.
1. Fundamental Analysis: What to buy
2. Technical Analysis: When to buy
1. Fundamental Analysis, it seems like a good to buy because companies profit is increasing yearly, and operations profit is also increasing which is crucial for any company. Balance sheet also looks good. (Though I am not expert in fundamental analysis, but I have sufficient idea about it.)
2. Technical Analysis: Well, the current price of the share is 149.85, and on Friday it showed some strength. And it has successfully defended the 144 mark twice in last 5 months. And trading in the range 145–150 from last 4–5 days which is signifies that it is working on the bottom formation.
So now it totally depends on the time period you want to invest.
1. Long term(1–2 Years): There is a descending triangle forming in the process, in the uptrend and also sitting on the 89 EMA line on weekly chart which providing it a strong support. And it can lead it to at least 250 mark. with the stop-loss below 140 mark.
2. Short Term(3–4 weeks): If you are willing to invest for short term in this stock, then the best area to enter is around 147–150, with the target of around 160 where there will be a decent resistance of 89 EMA line and stop-loss just below 144. will give you the best risk-reward ratio.
Is there a crash(correction) coming in Indian Market??Hi Guys,
Here I am going to analyze the 1-Month chart of NIFTY. So this is how it goes:-
According to Elliot waves theory, the 1st wave of the next bull run starts from the point of crisis or crash or war or all other depressing events. The major happened back in 2008. So from that point of time, the next bull run began.
1st wave: The first wave of the major bull run(2009-2018) was started in early 2009 which was lasted until October 2010.
2nd wave: The second wave which was basically the correction of the first wave was completed around December 2011.
3rd wave: The third wave started in early 2012 and lasted until Feb 2015 and according to the wave theory, the third wave should be bigger than 1st wave to which it quietly followed beautifully. The third wave was around 1.1 times bigger than the 1st wave.
4th wave: The correction of the third wave started in March 2015 and was completed in around March 2016.
5th wave: The fifth and last wave was started in March 2015 and completed in January 2018 and was almost equal to the length of the 1st wave following the Elliot Wave Principle.
So as the supercycle(wave 1) is completed, Now it's time for its correction. Generally, It retraces around 50% to 66% of the base wave. So following that we can see a healthy correction up to 6000-6500 incoming 1-2 years.
Another proof for this theory is that it is perfectly following the parallel channel. According to Elliot you only need three points to draw the parallel channel so after having 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wave if draw a line joining 1 and 3 and drawing a parallel line passing through 2 we can have the parallel channel and 4th and 5th wave also perfectly following that. RSI is also giving the Bearish Divergence Signals. The momentum is slowing down. BEARISH ENGULFING www.candlesticker.com Reversal candle also forming on the top.
And there is the election is also going to happen next year, and that is also going to have a huge effect on the market. It will be interesting to see how the market is going to react on that.
NIITTECH Flag pattern TradingApproaching oversold conditions on the weekly graph.
TA also suggests signs of next wave formation.
Although, recent acquisitions could give a boost in the perceived value by the market.(Arago and Cast)
Hit the top resistance and retraced back ~22%.
wait for the channel breakout(green)
and trade in the flag pattern. watch out for the resistance marked in red.
I will update on the next price movement. and targets if it stays in the channel.
NIFTY50 at a very Decisive AreaHello Traders,
I wish you all a happy Sunday and I hope you are enjoying the weekend so far Today, we will have a look at the Nifty Index from India and the USDINR. First of all let me explain to you why I use the Indian currency rupee to forecast the possible move in the Nifty.
That is a so called intermarket relation. First of all, we need to understand that Intermarket analysis is simply the relationship between the 4 major asset classes:
• Currencies: Currency trends define the direction of capital market flows in their currency areas.
• Bonds: Bond trends define the direction of interest rates.
• Commodities: Commodity trends can give us a clue about the current inflation trends.
• Equities: The development of the stock market is a leading indicator of economic development. Which measures the health of an economy.
So in this analysis, we are looking at the currency market (USDINR) vs the Equity market (NIFTY50).
In the chart above you can see the correlations coefficient on the bottom of the chart. We can clearly identify that the currency market (USDINR) has an inverse correlation to its respective equity market (NIFTY). To make long story short. When the Indian currency USDINR goes lower the Nifty index goes higher and vice versa. (Blue arrows USDINR goes lower where at the same time the NIFTY goes higher) that is a ideal correlation.
Obviously, we need to understand that the correlation between USDINR and NIFTY is not 100%. Which basically means, that there are times where correlation divergence happens. A correlations divergence is when both markets run inline to each other, which means when the USDINR goes up the NIFTY also goes up or remains sideways. That is a correlations divergence. I marked it in the charts (yellow areas) both markets move in the same direction. You can also see in the correlations coefficient indicator, the peaks. This correlation divergence occurred the last time in late January 2018. What does that mean you may ask now?
Well, the natural correlation is inverse to each other, which means that at some point the correlation divergence will get back to its mean. Which means after a correlations divergence it will inline again with its natural negative correlation. As we had several times in the past. Have a look at the peaks in the indicator followed by reversion to its mean in the past. I am also expecting in the next couple of weeks to get back to its natural correlations.
Technical Analysis:
Now, let’s have a look at the technicals. You can see in the first chart the USDINR, confirming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. You can see how nicely it broke the neckline and rallied very impulse to the upside. The target remains at around 67.34 which is the projected 100% extension from the head of the pattern. Due to the correlations divergence, where the USDINR rallied and the nifty also rallied, I am looking now at a reversion of the correlation. That means that when USDINR goes to the target of the pattern at around 67.34 the NIFTY Index should turn lower from the 50% retracement at around 10609 for a pullback at least. As NIFTY is at a very decisive area where a pullback can happen. That nicely coincides with the correlations divergence going to its mean. In other words. When USDINR rally in the early next week NIFTY should turn lower from its important technical level. Let's see how it plays out. I hope you enjoyed this analysis.
Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view
HCL Technologies - 20-25% Return in coming 8-10 monthsHCL Technologies has given a nice breakout today over a long term price point. This signals a good up-run in the coming months.A short term will occur in June and then some sort of low - a buying opportunity - in July. And then can sit tight for a ride up to 1200-1300 in Jan 2019.
Tata Steel - Rs 450 - October 2018 TargetIf you hold Tata Steel in your portfolio, it's prudent to exit at the current level and book profits. We are expecting the stock to head lower until October of this year. And then we can buy the stock at a discounted price of around Rs 450.That is the whopping 40% off of the current price. Call it the Great Diwali Sale for Indian stocks.
Tata Motors - Bright / Not Bright - Short term shortingTata Motors - the stock is treading lower with every passing week and will continue to do so until November of this year. What has to be seen is the price level.We are expecting around 280, however, the carnage could take it lower, depends on how hard the FII are involved in the selling. But we believe the low of Feb 2016 @ 266.00 should not be broken. Because if it does then the future of Tata Motors is bleak for coming 6-7 years. And in my personal opinion Tata Group is the best Indian company with least to no manipulation of its stock prices.
Buy Reliance post 960,target 1050
Reliance has been trending well in a horizontal range since a long time and the recent correction due to the macro economic monetary policies resulted in a breakout being exhausted and a failed breakout , with NIFTY making a tripple top on hourly charts and other variables looking bullish, A chance to buy reliance again for the breakout of 960 resistance line (Target is measured by the distance between the resistance and horizontal line which forms a rectangular box )
A Tripple top will result in a strong breakout post 960.Lookout,its going to be extremely fast and violent
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Nifty Prospect for 2018.strong signs of reversal after little upHi guys, my counting method of waves shows very high possibility of reversal in nifty around level 11400, down move will be more corrective but of higher degree can go upto 7000-5000. in upcoming month it can drag himself upto 11440 after that reversal can happen.
eat this btc price predictors with nasdaq chartslol so i noticed some people who analyse charts are pushing their opinion that btc will drop like nasdaq in 1999 lol and will stay at that drop for a very long term. I'm tired of saying to them that nasdaq chart and btc chart have nothing to do with this and that since 1999 many things have changed, but they still start crying and trying to prove that btc is dead. lol this is my pattern as i also searched some "financial bubble chart" on google i found this, this is some kind of "stages-indian-stock-market-bubble-rhishikesh-agashe" shit and stuff.
(I Draw those lines just for understanding where we are going to be compered to that chart)
Yes i know my chart looks like done with paint but i don't give a f. cos i just want to show an example to those nasdaq fans, that some "bubble charts" also can be very bullish and that they would stop pushing their "BTC is dead" opinion
We should be somewhere were "bear trap" is. Below is that chart which i found
media.licdn.com
BTC tips address: 1KYDPJ4XEribrakTSTnTrEX4C3syhcFxpo
Its just my opinion, don't take it too serious.
This is not financial advice nor a fact that this pattern is going to happen.
Nifty back to the ending diagonal, way to 10,400-10,500 After a month of intense run breaking all the fib went to the reversal zone falling after testing 1.61% extension of 2016-2017 move, per my count it looks like the Wave 4 correction it is perfectly normal to fall about the range of 10,300-10500 but selling below 10,200 might consider changing the count. I still believe ther's one more move towards the dead zone before we get a real correction. Wait for C wave to unfold with some Puts
Reliance Industries: Expecting Drop.Hi Guys, This chart showing high possibility of drop in reliance indus, whole structure looks big corrective structure. I don't know what will trigger this drop but this is on the cards. after that drop reliance is all the way to upside, giving very good place to invest in this stock for long term option.
Be cautious to go long Nifty tomorrow It seems we are yet to complete Wave 4, per my previous analysis nIfty would have been moved higher to complete Wave 3 of 5, but today's drop just after approaching 78% retracement suggest that we just completed the correction B, and drop was the completion of C. As C will complete smaller 5 waves, before closing small pull back looks like completion of wave 4 of C. If not, we might get deeper pullback tomorrow to the upside but be cautious i don't see the wave 5 of C. I will be more cautious as daily candle has closed below 9 EMA and ther's a cluster of support zone around 10410. Be cautious to take any long calls before we see the wave 5 completion of C.