Nifty RSI Super-Heated to 83% - Crash Coming ????On the Quarterly chart - the RSI indicator on Nifty is showing a value of 83% or more indicating it's in Over Bought Zone
Back in Jan 2008, the RSI went to a high of 87% and Nifty subsequently crashed -52% from the Highs. After 16 years, the RSI on Nifty is climbing up beyond the 83% mark which indicates "Danger of a Correction" according to many Expert Analysts from Media Channels, Twitter and Telegram
Please forward the below analysis to All those Pessimistic Technical Super-Zeroes
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I say - What a "Ridiculous" Comparison of 2008 vs 2024??? The entire Technology world looks toward India as a Hub of Technical Brains, but those brains are just filled with Age-old Folklores and Pessimism.
Technical Analysis is NOT a Geometry class to connect 2 dots from 20-30 years ago and say we had the similar situation back then and there was a Crash and the same thing will Repeat now. The entire market Dynamics has changed a lot.
1. First of all what's an Indicator?
An Indicator is nothing but a Human written Algorithm (A Script) which consumes Buyers & Sellers Activity and volume of trades historically and does some simple "math". How does this Dumb Number Crunching algorithm understand external factors?
2. What Really Caused the fall in 2008?
Think again closely - The 2008 crash was a Global Catastrophe caused by the Massive Conspiracy and Bankruptcy of Lehman "Buggers" (Brothers) in US which had a world wide impact. For those Technical Pundits who believe 2008 fall was due to RSI - read the Analysis below fully
In this image - there is a comparison of Nasdaq Vs Nifty 50 between 2000 to 2008 and the RSI line is that of Nasdaq (not Nifty)
In 2000, the market fell so badly in US and the RSI was around 98%. But in 2008, look at the RSI - it was hovering around the Healthy 60% mark which is treated as the Golden Levels of "Fresh Entry" by most technical analysts
But US & the entire world crashed in 2008 due to Lehman Brothers issue - As the subprime mortgages underlying these securities began to default at alarming rates, investor confidence plummeted leading to a loss in trust in Lehman Brothers. Unable to fully recover all of their losses, Lehman Brothers were forced to file for bankruptcy
Nifty was trading at RSI 90% back then, but US was trading at 60% RSI. So the fall here is NOT because of Indian RSI - but due to a Global event.
RSI is like a Speedometer - it just indicates that you are driving at 80 / 100 and in every vehicle speedometer - there will be a RED zone which indicates Dangerous driving conditions. Does not mean, the Engine will fail. It just says that driving so fast is not safe.
We should learn to do a Full Analysis - not just a Half-baked one connecting some dots with something else claiming Technical superiority
Nothing is going to happen to US especially NOTHING will every happen to Indian Market until Apr 2028 where Nifty will face a 34 year long Parallel Channel Resistance as indicated in the main chart
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