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We see a potential bullish scenario for gold.Gold is currently considered undervalued based on both the Dynamic RSI indicator by Lars Gross and the technical analysis of levels and structure, making it a viable buying option. The buying zone is located at the breakout of the level marked by a blue horizontal line. A significant resistance line is at the 2,643 $ mark. The selling zone/potential take-profit area is marked in green. Additionally, the current news regarding gold is not negative but rather neutral to positive, further supporting the bullish scenario.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by larsnicog
CVNA Carvana Sell-Off: Hindenburg Research Short PositionIf you haven`t bought CVNA at $25: Carvana Stock Now Faces Major Risks: A Price Target of $127 Carvana Co. (CVNA), currently trading at $199, faces mounting scrutiny after allegations from Hindenburg Research. The short-seller’s report, titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages,” accuses the company of unsustainable growth fueled by lax underwriting standards and questionable insider dealings. Key Concerns: Insider Selling: CEO Ernest Garcia III and his father, Ernie Garcia II, sold $3.6 billion in stock between 2020-2021, with an additional $1.4 billion sold last year after a 284% stock surge. Loan Portfolio Risks: Claims suggest Carvana approves nearly all loan applicants, increasing exposure to subprime defaults as economic conditions tighten. DriveTime Transactions: Allegations of inflated revenues through sales to DriveTime, owned by Garcia II, raise conflict-of-interest concerns. Manipulated Results: Extensions on subprime loans reportedly delay delinquencies, misrepresenting financial health. Outlook: While the stock has shown resilience, we believe these risks significantly outweigh the rewards. With questionable accounting practices and a vulnerable loan portfolio, our price target is $127.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by TopgOptions
1
HOW-TO use the Rainbow Indicator? (full guide)Below is a complete instruction on how to use the Rainbow Indicator along with examples. This indicator is an important facet of my decision-making system because it allows me to answer two important questions: - At what price should I make a trade with the selected shares? - In what volume? Part 1: Darts Set My concept of investing in stocks is buying great companies during a sell-off . Of course, this idea is not unique. One way or another, this was said by the luminaries of value investing – Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. However, the implementation of this concept may vary depending on the preferences of each investor.To find great companies, I use the Fundamental strength indicator , and to plan opening and closing positions I use the Rainbow indicator. To begin your acquaintance with the Rainbow Indicator, ⁣ I would like to invite you to take part in a mental experiment. Imagine two small rooms for a game of darts. Each room has a different target hanging in it. It can be anywhere: center, left, right, bottom, or top. Target #1 from the first room looks like a small red circle. Target #2 from the second room looks like a larger red circle. You get a reward for hitting the target, calculated according to the following principle: the smaller the target in relation to the wall surface, the greater the reward you get. You have 100 darts in your hand, that is 100 attempts to hit the target. For each attempt, you pay $10. So to play this unusual game of darts, you take with you $1,000. Now, the most important condition is that you play in absolute darkness . So you don't know exactly what part of the wall the target is hanging in, so all your years of darts practice don't matter here. The question is: Which room will you choose? This is where you begin to think. Since your skills and experience are almost completely untapped in this game, all of your attempts to hit a target will be random. This is a useful observation because it allows you to apply the theory of probability. The password is Jacob Bernoulli. This is the mathematician who derived the formula by which you can calculate the probability of a successful outcome for a limited number of attempts. In our case, a successful outcome is a dart hitting the target as many times as necessary in order to, at least, not lose anything. In the case of Target #1, it is one hit or more. In the case of Target 2, it is 10 hits or more. The probability of hitting Target #1 is 1/100 or 1% (since the target area occupies 1% of the wall area). The probability of hitting Target #2 is 10/100 or 10% (since the target area occupies 10% of the wall area). The number of attempts is equal to the number of darts - 100. Now we have all the data to calculate. So, Bernoulli's formula : According to this formula: - The probability of one or more hits on Target #1 is 63% (out of 100%). - The probability of ten or more hits on Target #2 is 55% (out of 100%). You may say, "I think we should go to the first room". However, take your time with this conclusion because it is interesting to calculate the probability of not hitting the target even once, i.e., losing $1,000. We calculate using the same formula: - The probability of not hitting Target #1 is 37% (out of 100%). - The probability of not hitting Target #2 is 0.0027% (out of 100%). If we calculate the ratio of the probability of a successful outcome to the probability of losing the whole amount, we get: - For the first room = 1.7 - For the second room = 20370 You know, I like the second room better. This mental experiment reflects my approach to investing in stocks. The first room is an example of a strategy where you try to find the perfect entry point - to buy at a price below which the stock will not fall. The second room reflects an approach where you're not chasing a specific price level, but thinking in price ranges. In both cases, you'll have plenty of attempts, but in the first room, the risk of losing everything is much greater than in the second room. Now let me show you my target, ⁣ which is a visual interpretation of the Rainbow Indicator. It also hangs on the wall, in absolute darkness, and only becomes visible after I have used all the darts. Before the game starts, I announce the color where I want to go. The probability of hitting decreases from blue to green, and then to orange and red. That is, the smaller the color area, the less likely it is to successfully hit the selected color. However, the size of the reward also increases according to the same principle - the smaller the area of ​​color, the greater the reward. Throwing a dart is an attempt to close a position with a profit. Hitting the selected color is a position closed with a profit. Missing the selected color means the position is closed at a loss. Now imagine that in the absolutely dark room where I am, I have a flashlight. Thanks to it, I have the opportunity to see in which part of the wall the target is located. This gives me a significant advantage because now I throw darts not blindly, but with a precise understanding of where I am aiming. Light shining on the wall increases the probability of a successful outcome, which can also be estimated using the Bernoulli formula. Let's say I have 100 darts in my hands, that is, one hundred attempts to hit the chosen target. The probability of a dart hitting a red target (without the help of a flashlight) is 10%, and with the help of a flashlight, for example, 15%. That is, my ability to throw darts improves the probability of hitting the target by 5%. For hitting the red target, I get $100, and for each throw I pay $10. In this case, the probability of hitting the red target ten or more times is 94.49% (out of 100%) versus 55% (out of 100%) without a flashlight. In other words, under these game conditions and the assumptions made, if I try all 100 darts, the probability of recouping all my expenses will be 94.49% if I aim only at the red target. In my decision-making system, such a "flashlight" is the Fundamental strength indicator, dynamics of cash flows, the P/E ratio and the absence of critical news. And the darts set (target and darts) is a metaphor for the Rainbow Indicator. However, please note that all probabilities of positive outcomes are assumptions and are provided only for the purpose of example and understanding of the approach I have chosen. Stocks of public companies are not a guaranteed income instrument, nor are any indicators associated with them. Part 2: Margin of safety The idea to create the Rainbow Indicator came to me thanks to the concept of "margin of safety" coined by the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham. According to his idea, it is reasonable to buy shares of a company only when the price offered by the market is lower than the "intrinsic value" calculated based on financial statements. The value of this difference is the "margin of safety". At the same time, the indicator does not copy Graham's idea but develops it relying on my own methodology. So, according to Graham, the "margin of safety" is a good discount to the intrinsic value of the company. That is, if a company's stock is trading at prices that are well below the company's intrinsic value (on a per-share basis), it's a good opportunity to consider buying it. In this case, you will have a certain margin of safety in case the company is in financial distress and its stock price goes down. Accordingly, the greater the discount, the better. When it comes to the intrinsic value of a company, there are many approaches to determining it - from calculating the Price-to-book value financial ratio to the discounted cash flow method. As for my approach, I don’t try to find the coveted intrinsic value/cost, but I try to understand how fundamentally strong the company in front of me is, and how many years it will take to pay off my investment in it. To decide to buy shares, I use the following sequence of actions: - Determining fundamental strength of a company and analysis of cash flows using the Fundamental Strength Indicator. - Analysis of the recoupment period of investments using P/E ratio . - Analysis of critical news . - Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator. To decide to sell shares, I use: - Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator. - Or The Rule of Replacement of Stocks in a Portfolio . - Or Force majeure Position Closing Rule . Thus, the Rainbow indicator is always used in tandem with other indicators and analysis methods when buying stocks. However, in the case of selling previously purchased shares, I can only use the Rainbow indicator or one of the rules that I will discuss below. Next, we will consider the methodology for calculating the Rainbow Indicator. Indicator calculation methodology The Rainbow indicator starts with a simple moving average of one year (this is the thick red line in the center). Hereinafter, a year will mean the last 252 trading days. Applying a moving average of this length - is a good way to smooth out sharp price fluctuations which can happen during a year as much as possible, keeping the trend direction as much as possible. Thus, the moving average becomes for me the center of fluctuations of the imaginary pendulum of the market price. Then the deviations are calculated from the center of fluctuations. To achieve this, a certain number of earnings per share is subtracted from and added to the moving average. This is the diluted EPS of the last year. Deviations with a "-" sign from the Lower Rainbow of four colors: - The Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -4 EPS and ends with a deflection of -8 EPS. - The Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -8 EPS and ends with a deflection of -16 EPS. - The Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -16 EPS and ends with a deflection of -32 EPS. - The Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -32 EPS and goes to infinity. The Lower Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for buying stocks. It is in the spectra of the Lower Rainbow that the very "margin of safety" according to my methodology is located. The Lower Rainbow has the boundaries between the spectra as a solid line . And only the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow has only one boundary. Deviations with a "+" sign from the Upper Rainbow of four similar colors: - The Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of 0 EPS and ends with a deflection of +4 EPS. - The Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +4 EPS and ends with a deflection of +8 EPS. - The Green Spectrum top rainbow begins with a deflection of +8 EPS and ends with a deflection of +16 EPS. - The Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +16 EPS and goes to infinity. The Upper Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for selling stocks already purchased. The top rainbow has boundaries between the spectra in the form of crosses . And only the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow has only one boundary. The presence of the Empty Area (the size of 4 EPS) above the Lower Rainbow creates some asymmetry between the two rainbows - the Lower Rainbow looks wider than the Upper Rainbow. This asymmetry is deliberate because the market tends to fall much faster and deeper than it grows . Therefore, a wider Lower Rainbow is conducive to buying stocks at a good discount during a period of massive "sell-offs". The situation when the Lower Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations (the thick red line) and the Upper Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations is called an Obverse . It is only possible to buy a stock in an Obverse situation. The situation when the Lower Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations and the Upper Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations is called Reverse . In this situation, the stock cannot be considered for purchase , according to my approach. Selling a previously purchased stock is possible in both situations: Reverse and Obverse. After loading the indicator, you can see a hint next to the closing price - Reverse or Obverse now. Because the size of the deviation from the center of fluctuation depends on the size of the diluted EPS, several important conclusions can be made: - The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about the growth of profits in the companies. - The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about a decrease in profits in the companies. - The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the growth of losses in the companies. - The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the decrease in losses in the companies. - The higher the company's level of profit, the larger my "margin of safety" should be. This will provide the necessary margin of safety in the event of a transition to a cycle of declining financial results. The corresponding width of the Lower Rainbow will just create this "reserve". - The growth in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to stay in the position longer due to the expansion of the Upper Rainbow. - A decrease in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to close the position faster due to the narrowing of the Upper Rainbow. So the Rainbow indicator shows me a price range that can be considered for purchase if all the necessary conditions are met. By being in this price range, my investment will have a certain margin of safety or "margin of safety." It will also tell me when to exit a stock position based on the company's earnings analysis. Part 3: Crazy Mr. Market The Fundamental strength of a company influences the long-term price performance of its shares. This is a thesis that I believe in and use in my work. A company that does not live in debt and quickly converts its goods or services into money will be appreciated by the market. This all sounds good, you say, but what should an investor do who needs to decide here and now? Moreover, one has to act in conditions of constant changes in market sentiment. Current talk about the company's excellent prospects can be replaced by a pessimistic view of it literally the next day. Therefore, the stock price chart of any companies, regardless of its fundamental strength, can resemble the chaotic drawings of preschool children. Working with such uncertainty required me to develop my own attitude towards it. Benjamin Graham's idea of market madness was of invaluable help to me in this. Imagine that the market is your business partner, "Mr. Market". Every day, he comes to your office to check in and offer you a deal with shares of your mutual companies. Sometimes he wants to buy your share, sometimes he intends to sell his. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his intuition. When he is in a panic and afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoria and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. This is how crazy your partner is. Why is he acting like this? According to Graham, this is how all investors behave who do not understand the real value/cost of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day. The smart investor's job is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for the next visit from crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stocks at a surprisingly low price, take them and wish him luck. If he begs you to sell him stocks and quotes an unusually high price, sell them and wish him luck. The Rainbow indicator is used to evaluate these two poles. Now let's look at the conditions of opening and closing a position according to the indicator. So, the Lower Rainbow has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each one highlights the desired range of prices acceptable for buying in an Obverse situation. The Blue Spectrum is upper regarding the Green Spectrum, and the Green Spectrum is lower regarding the Blue Spectrum, etc. - If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, that is a reason to consider that company for buying the first portion (*) of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider this company to buy a second portion of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), it is a reason to consider this company to buy a third portion of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider that company to buy a fourth portion of the stock. (*) The logic of the Rainbow Indicator implies that no more than 4 portions of one company's stock can be purchased. One portion refers to the number of shares you can consider buying at the current price (depending on your account size and personal diversification ratio - see information below). The Upper Rainbow also has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each of them highlights the appropriate range of prices acceptable for closing an open position. - If the current price is in the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. This position-closing logic applies to both the Obverse and Reverse situations. In both cases, the position is closed in portions in four steps. However, there are 3 exceptions to this rule when it is possible to close an entire position in whole rather than in parts: 1. If there is a Reverse situation and the current price is above the thick red line. 2.if I decide to invest in another company and I do not have enough free finances to purchase the required number of shares (Portfolio Replacement Rule). 3. If I learn of events that pose a real threat to the continued existence of the companies (for example, filing for bankruptcy), I can close the position earlier, without waiting for the price to fall into the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectrum (Force majeure Position Closing Rule). So, the basic scenario of opening and closing a position assumes the gradual purchase of shares in 4 stages and their gradual sale in 4 stages. However, there is a situation where one of the stages is skipped in the case of buying shares and in the case of selling them. For example, because the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio became acceptable for me only at a certain stage (spectrum) or the moment was missed for a transaction due to technical reasons. In such cases, I buy or sell more than one portion of a stock in the spectrum I am in. The number of additional portions will depend on the number of missed spectra. For example, if I have no position in the stock of the company in question, all conditions for buying the stock have been met, and the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, I can buy three portions of the stock at once (for the Blue, Green, and Orange Spectrum). I will sell these three portions in the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectra (orange, green, and blue). However, if, for some reason, the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow was missed, and the current price is in the Green Spectrum - I will sell two portions of the three (in the Green Spectrum). I will sell the last, third portion only when the price reaches the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. The table also contains additional information in the form of the current value of the company's market capitalization and P/E ratio. This allows me to use these two indicators within one indicator. Returning to the madness of the market, I would like to mention that this is a reality that cannot be fought, but can be used to achieve results. To get a sense of this, I will give an example of one of the stereotypes of an investor who uses fundamental analysis in his work.His thinking might be: If I valued a company on its financial performance and bought it, then I should stay in the position long enough to justify my expenses of analysis. In this way, the investor deliberately deprives himself of flexibility in decision-making. He will be completely at a loss if the financial performance starts to deteriorate rapidly and the stock price starts to decline rapidly. It is surprising that the same condition will occur in the case of a rapid upward price movement. The investor will torment himself with the question "what to do?" because I just bought stocks of this company, expecting to hold them for the long term. It is at moments like these that I'm aware of the value of the Rainbow Indicator. If it is not a force majeure or a Reverse situation, I just wait until the price reaches the Upper Rainbow. Thus, I can close the position in a year, in a month or in a few weeks. I don't have a goal to hold an open position for a long time, but I do have a goal to constantly adhere to the chosen investment strategy. Part 4: Diversification Ratio If the price is in the Lower Rainbow range and all other criteria are met, it is a good time to ask yourself, "How many shares to buy?" To answer this question, I need to understand how many companies I plan to invest in. Here I adhere to the principle of diversification - that is, distributing investments between the shares of several companies. What is this for? To reduce the impact of any company on the portfolio as a whole. Remember the old saying: don't put all your eggs in one basket. Like baskets, stocks can fall and companies can file for bankruptcy and leave the exchange. In this regard, diversification is a way to avoid losing capital due to investing in only one company. How do I determine the minimum number of companies for a portfolio? This amount depends on my attitude towards the capital that I will use to invest in stocks. If I accept the risk of losing 100% of my capital, then I can only invest in one company. It can be said that in this case there is no diversification. If I accept the risk of losing 50% of my capital, then I should invest in at least two companies, and so on. I just divide 100% by the percentage of capital that I can safely lose. The resulting number, rounded to the nearest whole number, is the minimum number of companies for my portfolio. As for the maximum value, it is also easy to determine. To achieve this, you need to multiply the minimum number of companies by four (this is how many spectra the Lower or Upper Rainbow of the indicator contains). How many companies I end up with in my portfolio will depend on from this set of factors. However, this amount will always fluctuate between the minimum and maximum, calculated according to the principle described above. I call the maximum possible number of companies in a portfolio the diversification coefficient. It is this coefficient that is involved in calculating the number of shares needed to be purchased in a particular spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. How does this work? Let's go to the indicator settings and fill in the necessary fields for the calculation. + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes +Cash in - the number of finances deposited into my account -Cash out - the number of finances withdrawn from my account +/-Closed Profit/Loss - profit or loss on closed positions +Dividends - dividends received on the account -Fees - broker and exchange commission -Taxes - taxes debited from the account Diversification coefficient The diversification coefficient determines how diversified I want my portfolio to be. For example, a diversification coefficient of 20 means that I plan to buy 20 share portions of different companies, but no more than 4 portions per company (based on the number of Lower Rainbow spectra). The cost of purchased shares of this company (fees excluded) Here, I specify the amount of already purchased shares of the company in question in the currency of my portfolio. For example, if at this point, I have purchased 1000 shares at $300 per share, and my portfolio is expressed in $, I enter - $300,000. The cost of all purchased shares in the portfolio (fees excluded) Here, I enter the amount of all purchased shares for all companies in the currency of my portfolio (without commissions spent on the purchase). This is necessary to determine the amount of available funds available to purchase shares. After entering all the necessary data, I move on to the checkbox, by checking which I confirm that the company in question has successfully passed all preliminary stages of analysis (Fundamental strength indicator, P/E ratio, critical news). Without the check, the calculation is not performed. This is done intentionally because the use of the Rainbow Indicator for the purpose of purchasing shares is possible only after passing all the preliminary stages. Next, I click "Ok" and get the calculation in the form of a table on the left. Market Capitalization The value of a company's market capitalization, expressed in the currency of its stock price. Price / EPS Diluted Current value of the P/E ratio. Free cash in portfolio This is the amount of free cash available to purchase stocks. Please note that the price of the stock and the funds in your portfolio must be denominated in the same currency. On TradingView, you can choose which currency to display the stock price in. Cash amount for one portion The amount of cash needed to buy one portion of a stock. This depends on the diversification ratio entered. If you divide this value + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes by the diversification coefficient, you get Cash amount for one portion . Potential portions amount Number of portions, available for purchase at the current price. It can be a fractional number. Cash amount to buy The amount of cash needed to buy portions available for purchase at the current price. Shares amount to buy Number of shares in portions available for purchase at the current price. Thus, the diversification ratio is a significant parameter of my stocks' investment strategy. It shows both the limit on the number of companies and the limit on the number of portions for the portfolio. It also participates in calculating the number of finances and shares to purchase at the current price level. Changing the diversification coefficient is possible already during the process of investing in stocks. If my capital ( + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes ) has changed significantly (by more than Cash amount for one portion ), I always ask myself the same question: "What risk (as a percentage of capital) is acceptable for me now?" If the answer involves a change in the minimum number of companies in the portfolio, then the diversification ratio will also be recalculated. Therefore, the number of finances needed to purchase one portion will also change. We can say that the diversification ratio controls the distribution of finances among my investments. Part 5: Prioritization and Exceptions to the Rainbow Indicator Rules When analyzing a company and its stock price using the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the Rainbow Indicator, a situation may arise where all the conditions for buying are met in two or more companies. At the same time, ⁣ Free cash in the portfolio does not allow me to purchase the required number of portions from different companies. In that case, I need to decide which companies I will give priority to. To decide, I follow the following rules: 1. Priority is given to companies from the top-tier sector group (how these groups are defined is explained in this article ). That is, the first group prevails over the second, and the second over the third. These companies must also meet the purchase criteria described in Part 2. 2. If after applying the first rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Priority is given to companies that have a fundamental strength of 8 points or higher. They must also be within two points of the leader in terms of fundamental strength. For example, if a leader has a fundamental strength of 12 points, then the range under consideration will be from 12 to 10 points. 3. If, after applying the second rule, two or more companies received priority, I look at which spectrum of the Lower Rainbow the current price of these companies is in. If a company's stock price is on the lower end of the spectrum, I give it priority. 4. If, after applying the third rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the P/E ratio. The Company with the lower P/E ratio gets priority. After applying these four rules, I get the company with the highest priority. This is the company that wins the fight for my investment. To figure out the next priority to buy, I repeat this process over and over again to use up all the money I have allocated for investing in stocks. The second part of the guide mentioned two rules that I use when deciding whether to close positions: - The Rule for replacing shares in a portfolio. - Force majeure position closure Rule. They take priority over the Rainbow Indicator. This means that the position may be closed even if the Rainbow indicator does not signal this. Let's consider each rule separately. Portfolio stock replacement Rule Since company stocks are not an asset with a guaranteed return, I can get into a situation where the position is open for a long time without an acceptable financial result. That is, the price of the company's shares is not growing, and the Rainbow indicator does not signal the need to sell shares. In this case, I can replace the problematic companies with a new one. The criteria for a problem company are: - 3 months have passed since the position was opened. - Fundamental strength below 5 points. - The width of both rainbows decreased during the period of holding the position. To identify a new company that will take the place of the problematic one, I use the prioritization principle from this section. At the same time, I always consider this possibility as an option. The thing is that frequently replacing stocks in my portfolio is not a priority for me and is seen as a negative action. A new company would have to have really outstanding parameters for me to take advantage of this option. Force majeure position closure Rule If my portfolio contains stocks of a company that has critical news, then I can close the position without using the Rainbow Indicator. How to determine whether this news is critical or not is described in this article . Part 6: Examples of using the indicator Let’s consider the situation with NVIDIA Corporation stock (ticker - NVDA). September 02, 2022: Fundamental Strength Indicator - 11.46 (fundamentally strong company). P/E - 39.58 (acceptable to me). Current price - $136.47 (is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are filled out as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Orange Spectrum of Lower Rainbow at the current price = 10 shares. This corresponds to 2.73 portions. To give you an example, I buy 10 shares of NVDA at $136.47 per share. October 14, 2022: NVDA's stock price has moved into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. The Fundamental Strength Indicator is 10.81 (fundamentally strong company). P/E is 35.80 (an acceptable level for me). Current price - $112.27 (is in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum at the current price (5 shares). This corresponds to 1.12 portions. To give you an example, I buy 5 shares of NVDA at $112.27 per share. A total of 3.85 portions were purchased, which is the maximum possible number of portions at the current price level. The remainder in the form of 0.15 portions can be purchased only at a price level below $75 per share. January 23, 2023: The price of NVDA stock passes through the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow and stops in the Orange Spectrum. As an example, I sell 5 shares bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, for example at $180 per share (+60%). And also a third of the shares bought in the Orange Spectrum, 3 shares out of 10, for example at $190 a share (+39%). That leaves me with 7 shares. January 27, 2023: NVDA's stock price has continued to rise and has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This is a reason to close some of the remaining 7 shares. I divide the 7 shares by 2 and round up to a whole number - that's 4 shares. For my example, I sell 4 shares at $199 a share (+46%). Now I am left with 3 shares of stock. February 02, 2023: The price of NVDA stock moves into the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, and I close the remaining 3 shares, for example, at $216 per share (+58%). The entire position in NVDA stock is closed. As you can see, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio were not used in the process of closing the position. Decisions were made only based on the Rainbow Indicator. As another example, let's look at the situation with the shares of Papa Johns International, Inc. (ticker PZZA). November 01, 2017: Fundamental Strength Indicator - 13.22 points (fundamentally strong company). P/E - 21.64 (acceptable to me). Current price - $62.26 (is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are met. The settings of the Rainbow Indicator are filled as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Blue Spectrum at the current price - 8 shares. This corresponds to 1 portion. To give you an example, I buy 8 shares of PZZA at a price of $62.26. August 8, 2018: PZZA's share price has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. The Fundamental Strength Indicator is a 9.83 (fundamentally strong company). P/E is 16.07 (an acceptable level for me). Current price - $38.94 (is in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Green Spectrum at the current price - 12 shares. This corresponds to 0.93 portions. To give you an example, I buy 12 shares of PZZA at a price of $38.94. A total of 1.93 portions were purchased. October 31, 2018: PZZA's stock price moves into the Upper Rainbow Red Spectrum and is $54.54 per share. Since I did not have any portions purchased in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum, there is no closing part of the position. February 01, 2019: After a significant decline, PZZA's stock price moves into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow at $38.51 per share. However, I am not taking any action because the company's Fundamental Strength on this day is 5.02 (a fundamentally mediocre company). March 27, 2019: PZZA's stock price passes the green and Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This allowed to close the previously purchased 12 shares, for example, at $50 a share (+28%) and 8 shares at $50.38 a share (-19%). Closing the entire position at once was facilitated by a significant narrowing in both rainbows. As we now know, this indicates a decline in earnings at the company. In conclusion of this instruction, I would like to remind you once again that any investment is associated with risk. Therefore, make sure that you understand all the nuances of the indicators before using them. Mandatory requirements for using the indicator: - Works only on a daily timeframe. - The indicator is only applicable to shares of public companies. - Quarterly income statements for the last year are required. - An acceptable for your P/E ratio is required to consider the company's stock for purchase. - The Rainbow Indicator only applies in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator. To consider a company's stock for purchase, you need confirmation that the company is fundamentally strong. What is the value of the Rainbow Indicator? - Clearly demonstrates a company's profit and loss dynamics. - Shows the price ranges that can be used to open and close a position. - Considers the principle of gradual increase and decrease in a position. - Allows calculating the number of shares to be purchased. - Shows the current value of the P/E ratio. - Shows the current capitalization of the company. Risk disclaimer When working with the Rainbow Indicator, keep in mind that the release of the Income statement (from which diluted EPS is derived) occurs some time after the end of the fiscal quarter. This means that the new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statement. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the Rainbow Indicator after the publication of the new statement. The magnitude of this change will depend on both the content of the new statement and the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statement. Before the publication date of the new statement, the latest actual data will be used for the calculations. Also, once again, please note that the Rainbow Indicator can only be used in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio. Without these additional filters, the Rainbow Indicator loses its intended meaning. The Rainbow Indicator allows you to determine the price ranges for opening and closing a position gradually, based on available data and the methodology I created. You can also use it to calculate the number of shares you can consider buying, considering the position you already have. However, this Indicator and/or its description and examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy
U Unity Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought U Unity at all time low: My price target for U in 2025 is $35, driven by the following fundamental factors: Strong Market Position in Gaming and Interactive Content: Unity maintains a dominant position in the gaming industry, with approximately 70% of the top mobile games built on its platform. The global gaming market is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing consumer spending on mobile and interactive content. Unity's extensive reach—3.7 billion monthly downloads of applications made with Unity—positions it well to capture this growth. As the demand for high-quality gaming experiences continues to rise, Unity's technology will be integral in meeting these needs. Innovative Product Developments: The upcoming launch of Unity 6 promises to enhance the platform's stability and performance, which is crucial for attracting new developers and retaining existing customers. Additionally, Unity's shift back to a subscription-based model has shown positive results, with subscription revenue growing by 12%. This focus on innovation and customer satisfaction is expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth in the coming years. Focus on Operational Efficiency and Cost Management: Unity's recent restructuring efforts have significantly reduced net losses, from $291 million in Q1 2024 to $126 million in Q2 2024. This focus on operational efficiency not only improves profitability but also enhances cash flow management—Unity generated $115 million in free cash flow in Q3 2024. As the company continues to streamline operations while investing in growth initiatives, it is likely to see further improvements in financial performance. Valuation Potential Amidst Market Recovery: Despite recent challenges, Unity's current valuation presents an attractive opportunity for investors. Analysts are optimistic about the company's long-term growth prospects, particularly as it adapts to market demands and enhances its product offerings. With a target price suggesting significant upside potential from current levels, Unity is positioned for substantial appreciation as it executes its strategic vision.
NYSE:ULong
by TopgOptions
BTC Bitcoin Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought BTC Bitcoin before the recent breakout: My price target for BTC in 2025 is $125K, driven by the following fundamental factors: Regulatory Developments Favoring Adoption: The anticipated regulatory shifts in the United States are expected to create a more favorable environment for cryptocurrencies. With the potential for pro-crypto policies under a new administration, including the establishment of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset by major nations, investor confidence is likely to increase significantly. Analysts suggest that such developments could drive the total cryptocurrency market capitalization from approximately $3.3 trillion to around $8 trillion by 2025, with Bitcoin poised to capture a substantial share of this growth. Increased Institutional Demand through ETFs: The launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has already begun to transform the investment landscape for Bitcoin, making it more accessible to institutional and retail investors alike. Following the successful introduction of multiple Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, analysts project that inflows could exceed $15 billion in 2025, further boosting demand for Bitcoin. This increased accessibility is expected to drive prices higher as more investors seek exposure to the asset class. Supply Constraints from Halving Events: Bitcoin's supply dynamics are fundamentally bullish due to its halving events, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. The most recent halving in April 2024 has led to a significant reduction in supply inflation, creating scarcity that historically correlates with price increases. As demand continues to rise while supply becomes more constrained, this fundamental imbalance is likely to support higher prices. Growing Adoption as a Store of Value" As macroeconomic conditions evolve, including persistent inflationary pressures and potential monetary policy easing, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a viable store of value akin to gold. This perception is bolstered by its finite supply and decentralized nature, making it an attractive hedge against inflation. Analysts suggest that as more investors turn to Bitcoin for wealth preservation, its price could see substantial appreciation
Long
by TopgOptions
MRNA Moderna Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought MRNA on the recent breakout: My price target for MRNA in 2025 is $55, driven by the following fundamental factors: Innovative mRNA Technology and Expanding Pipeline: Moderna has established itself as a leader in mRNA technology, initially gaining prominence through its COVID-19 vaccine. The company is now leveraging this innovative platform to develop a diverse array of therapeutic candidates, with approximately 40 development projects in progress across various fields, including infectious diseases, oncology, and rare genetic disorders. This broad pipeline not only enhances Moderna's potential for future revenue but also positions it to capitalize on emerging healthcare needs as the demand for advanced therapies continues to rise. Projected Revenue Growth: Despite facing financial challenges, including recent losses, Moderna's revenue outlook remains promising. The company is forecasting sales between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion for 2025, which analysts believe could be conservative given the anticipated rollout of new vaccines and treatments. If successful, these products could significantly boost sales and profitability, driving investor confidence and stock price appreciation 16. Market projections suggest that if Moderna successfully navigates its clinical trials and product launches, the stock could reach around $80 per share by 2025. Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations: Moderna's strategic collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies enhance its development capabilities and market access. These partnerships are crucial for accelerating product development and increasing the adoption of its mRNA technology across various therapeutic areas. By aligning with established players in the industry, Moderna can leverage additional resources and expertise to bring its innovations to market more effectively. Market Sentiment and Recovery Potential: Currently trading at lower valuations due to past performance fluctuations, Moderna's stock is positioned for recovery as investor sentiment shifts with positive developments in its pipeline. The company's five-year growth trajectory shows resilience despite recent setbacks, indicating potential for a rebound as new products come to market. Analysts remain optimistic about Moderna's long-term prospects, suggesting that as the market recognizes the value of its innovative therapies, the stock could see substantial gains.
NASDAQ:MRNALong
by TopgOptions
3
AMD Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought AMD on this strong buy rating: My price target for AMD in 2025 is $175, driven by the following fundamental factors: Robust Growth in Data Center and AI Segments: AMD is experiencing significant momentum in its data center business, particularly with its EPYC processors and AI accelerators. The company has raised its revenue outlook for its MI300 AI accelerators to over $5 billion for 2024, reflecting robust demand and an expanding market presence. Analysts project that AMD's earnings per share (EPS) will grow by approximately 55% in 2025, driven by increasing contributions from these high-margin segments. This growth trajectory positions AMD favorably to capture a larger share of the rapidly expanding AI and data center markets, which are projected to see substantial investments in the coming years. Competitive Positioning Against Rivals: AMD's strategic focus on providing cost-effective and high-performance solutions allows it to compete effectively against industry giants like NVIDIA. The launch of its MI325X accelerator, which offers competitive performance at lower price points compared to NVIDIA's offerings, is expected to attract hyperscale clients. This competitive edge is crucial as demand for AI processing power continues to surge across various industries. Strong Financial Health and Valuation: AMD's financial metrics indicate a solid foundation for growth. The company has demonstrated impressive gross margins, recently reported at around 52%, and is expected to see further margin expansion as it shifts towards higher-margin products. Currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 24x for fiscal 2025, AMD is considered undervalued compared to its peers, particularly given its projected earnings growth. Analysts have set an average price target of $182 for AMD by the end of 2025, suggesting significant upside potential from current levels. Strategic Acquisitions and Leadership: Under CEO Lisa Su's leadership, AMD has transformed into a powerhouse in the semiconductor industry. Recent strategic acquisitions, such as ZT Systems, enhance AMD's capabilities in providing comprehensive AI infrastructure solutions. This strategy not only expands AMD's product offerings but also strengthens its relationships with key clients in the cloud computing space.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by TopgOptions
NVDA Nvidia Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on NVDA: My price target for NVDA in 2025 is $170, driven by the following fundamental factors: Dominance in AI and Data Center Markets: NVIDIA is a leader in the artificial intelligence (AI) and data center sectors, which are expected to experience exponential growth. The company's GPUs are critical for AI applications, and its data center revenue has surged dramatically, reaching $14.51 billion in Q3 2023—a threefold increase year-over-year. Analysts predict that NVIDIA's revenue could reach approximately $111.3 billion in 2025, driven by the relentless demand for AI technologies and the expansion of data center capabilities. Innovative Product Pipeline: The upcoming introduction of NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture is set to enhance its competitive edge further. This new line of chips is designed to deliver unprecedented performance levels for AI applications, solidifying NVIDIA's leadership in the sector. The anticipated demand for these advanced products is expected to bolster revenue and profitability significantly. Additionally, NVIDIA's continuous investment in research and development ensures that it remains at the forefront of technological advancements. Strong Financial Performance and Market Sentiment: NVIDIA has demonstrated robust financial health, with gross margins consistently above 70% and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts reflecting strong growth. The company has also engaged in substantial share repurchase programs, returning value to shareholders while signaling confidence in its future performance. Market sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with analysts frequently upgrading their price targets based on NVIDIA's strong fundamentals and growth trajectory.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TopgOptions
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF 2025 Prediction - My Top 10 PicksIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on QQQ: My price target for QQQ in 2025 is $608, driven by the following fundamental factors: Strong Growth Potential in Technology: The QQQ ETF is heavily weighted towards technology companies, which are at the forefront of innovation and growth. Major constituents like Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are not only leaders in their respective fields but are also expected to benefit from ongoing trends such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital transformation. Analysts project that the earnings growth for QQQ constituents will outpace that of broader market indices, with estimated one-year earnings growth rates around 17.31%. This growth trajectory supports a bullish outlook as these companies continue to expand their market share and profitability. Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions: Recent Federal Reserve actions, including interest rate cuts, create a conducive environment for growth stocks. The Fed's dovish stance is likely to lower borrowing costs and stimulate investment in technology sectors. As interest rates decline, the present value of future earnings increases, making high-growth tech stocks more attractive. The anticipated economic recovery and stabilization should further enhance investor sentiment towards QQQ. Historical Performance and Resilience: Historically, QQQ has outperformed the S&P 500 in bull markets, showcasing its resilience during periods of economic expansion. Over the past decade, QQQ has delivered an average annual return of approximately 18.59%, significantly outpacing many other investment vehicles. This historical performance suggests that as market conditions improve, QQQ is well-positioned to capitalize on renewed investor interest in growth stocks.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TopgOptions
HIMS: Another buying opportunity! 88% UpsideCharturday #4: NYSE:HIMS 💊 A top 3 trade/ investment for me right now! Weekly Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Broke out of Bull Flag and realized $35 MM -Broke out of CupnHandle and now retesting before we head towards our $48.55 measured move (MM). Already wicked off the area which shows confirmation of a successful retest. -Sitting on a volume shelf with a lot of room to run! -At the bottom of our uptrend channel -Wr% is in an uptrend as you can see with the arrow Williams consolidation box (WCB) is completely jacked up due to the short attack last month that tanked the stock then the FED FUD this past week alongside the GLP-1 shortage removal decision by the FDA. So yea no stock can hold together a Williams CB during all those massive swings. But, make no mistake these created great buying opportunities IMO! 🔜🎯$35🎯$40 🎯$48⏲️Before 2028 Not financial advice.
NYSE:HIMSLong
by RonnieV29
3
AES Corporation - Short term view with strong supportSo first of all both price and indicators are confirming the downtrend. Today NYSE:AES opened with a gap succeeding yesterday's equilibrium in price with doji candles. The price is still in the middle of the regression line and in the next few days the price don't seems to be close to upper 2 SD. In the print above the yellow line shows the support at $11.43. The image's time horizon starts at the end of 2006. Furthermore looking at short ratio available online the value is about 2,7 from mid October as well as more than 22M short interest
NYSE:AESShort
by AFCapital21
ETH over the last year and now todayI wanted to zoom out of the chart that I provided yesterday identifying this potential for buying the dip. We did break down through bottom of ascending channel for just a fast wick but it likely indicates we are breaking out of this ascension. As you see there is a lot of potential for a sideways channel here at the top of the larger (slightly descending) sideways channel, here we could consolidate in the top third of the channel and then build up the courage to try to break out of top of this year long channel again, or break down and potentially trace all the way back to bottom of channel which as you see is as low as $2200. If we break that $3500 support, I will become short term bearish. Market has been strong though so good chance we maintain top of channel and try to break out again in the near future. IMO daily candle charts are the most important and reliable charts. I do like 4 hour candles as they are more granular for seeing trends and are pretty close to as reliable and I often look at 1 hour candles for a pulse on the now but generally speaking, the shorter candle you use, the less you can rely on it. Lets take a look at the break down of the daily candle. --------------------------------------------------------------- # ETH/USD Analysis – Daily Chart 📊 ## Structure and Price Action: **Ascending Channel with Breakdown Risks** ETH/USD is currently trading within a **parallel ascending channel**, with price oscillating between its upper and lower bounds (green lines). Recently, the price sharply rejected at **$4,100** and is now testing the **lower trendline support** near **$3,500**. **Bearish Rejection Near Key Resistance** Sellers emerged strongly at the **$4,100 Bearish Order Block (OB)**, leading to a steep reversal. This highlights a significant supply zone at this level. **Approaching Key Demand Zone** The price is nearing **Bullish Order Blocks (OB)** around **$3,500–$3,600** (green zones), where buyers have defended historically. This is a critical support area within the larger channel. --- ## Support and Resistance: **Immediate Resistance** - **$3,600–$3,700**: Overhead resistance zone, aligned with EMA 20 and mid-channel range. - **$4,100**: Major supply zone, previously rejected at this level. **Key Support Levels** - **$3,500**: Current demand area reinforced by a key trend line - **$2,800–$3,000**: Next structural support if breakdown occurs. --- ## Indicators **EMAs (20/50/100/200):** - The price has dropped below **EMA 20 ($3,800)** and **EMA 50 ($3,750)**, indicating short-term bearish momentum. - **EMA 100 ($3,610)** is providing immediate dynamic support. - **EMA 200 ($3,380)** remains a critical long-term support level. **Parabolic SAR** - SAR dots are below the candles indicating an up wave in progress but it seems muted. **Volume** - Recent sell-off saw a **volume surge**, confirming active participation in the pullback. **Stochastic RSI** - Currently **oversold** (9.30/26.79), favoring a short-term bounce from this zone. **Money Flow Index (MFI)** - MFI is sitting at **51.26**, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions but showing signs of selling pressure easing. --- ## Pattern Analysis: **Ascending Channel Breakdown Risk** ETH/USD is testing the **lower channel boundary ($3,500)**. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the top of channel, leading to bearish momentum targeting lower support levels. --- ## Probabilistic Outlook **Bullish Scenario (Primary Case):** If buyers defend the **$3,500–$3,600** zone with rising volume: - **First Target**: $3,800–$3,850 (EMA 20 and mid-channel resistance). - **Second Target**: $4,000–$4,100 (upper channel resistance). **Bearish Scenario (Alternate Case):** If the price closes below **$3,500**: - **First Target**: $3,200 (next structural support). - **Second Target**: $3,000–$2,800 (psychological level and major demand zone). --- ## Key Signals to Watch: 1. **$3,500 Support**: Holding or breaking this level will decide the next move. 2. **Volume Confirmation**: Rising volume on bounce or breakdown strengthens directional bias. 3. **Stochastic RSI Oversold Levels**: Signals a possible bounce unless selling pressure increases. --- ## Order Book Update: Order books continue to look dirty but with potential for recovery. Both asks and bids tracking a downward trend, asks is staging a potential ascending channel though many times asks have lost a bit more than bids on pullback, indicating negative trader sentiment or fear in the market, it is in a position to change course over the next days but until it does, books are under pressure. --- ## Conclusion: ETH/USD is at a **critical inflection point**, testing the lower trendline of the ascending channel converting to a sideways channel to consolidate before breaking out or breaking down. Bulls need to defend **$3,500** to sustain the medium term bullish structure. A successful defense targets **$3,800–$4,100**, with anything higher than $4100 starting a new breakout and while failure to maintain $3500 opens the path toward **$2,800** or lower. 🔍 **Monitor volume, key support levels, and stochastic momentum for confirmation.** 🚨
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by EncryptShawn
DEC 18 GBPUSD SELL TRADE ACTIVATEDThis is a classic move when you know wyckoff schematics ( supply and demand) . I am checking gbpusd since november, it was only this december that the movement gets slow motion. This was an evidence for me to go bearish once I had a validity in lower timeframe. FAST FORWARD: Dec 12-16 MOVE was a confirmation for me to look for short trades, If you will notice here in my chart : order block was created (supply). I marked it as my POI , Look for validity and EQH---> sell limit activated with a beautiful 1:5RR. (check chart for complete details) . #wyckoffianttrader #profitablesystem #psychology.
Short
by glyrad
ETH "Buy the Dip" opportunity?The pullback I outlined in my last ETH post came to fruition, however, there was a surprise retest of resistance before failing again and pulling back. Now we are at the bottom of the ascending channel but if we lose support here, it looks like we may be forming a sideways channel, in light blue lines on the chart. With support of bottom of channel and 200 EMA on the 4h candle, seems like a good chance to hold here. Lets look at the details. ------------------------------------------- # ETH/USD Analysis – 4H Chart 📊 ## Structure and Price Action: **Parallel Ascending Channel** ETH/USD is trading within a **parallel ascending channel**, with price oscillating between the upper and lower bounds (green lines). The price is currently testing the **lower trendline support** of the channel, following a recent rejection near the **$4,000–$4,050** region. **Bearish Rejection at Resistance** Sellers stepped in at the **$4,050 Bearish Order Block (OB)** (red zone), leading to a sharp reversal. This indicates heavy supply at this level, halting upward momentum. **Bullish Order Block Retest** The price is approaching multiple **Bullish Order Blocks (OB)** around **$3,500–$3,600** (green zones), a strong demand area where buyers previously defended. --- ## Support and Resistance: **Immediate Resistance** - **$3,800–$4,000**: Key resistance zone aligning with the upper channel boundary and recent bearish OB. - **$4,050**: Critical rejection level and prior swing high. **Key Support Levels** - **$3,500–$3,600**: Primary demand zone, reinforced by bullish OBs. - **$3,300**: Secondary support area in case of deeper pullback. --- ## Indicators **EMAs (20/50/100/200):** - Price has fallen **below EMA 20 ($3,880.60)** and **EMA 50 ($3,810.46)** – short-term bearish bias. - **EMA 100 ($3,613.86)**: Acting as dynamic support near the current price. - **EMA 200 ($3,380)**: Long-term support level. **Parabolic SAR** - SAR dots are **above the price**, signaling bearish momentum. Watch for a shift below the price for trend reversal. **Volume** - Volume **spiked on the recent drop**, reflecting increased selling pressure near the lower channel boundary. **Stochastic RSI** - Stochastic RSI is **oversold** (3.69/7.86), signaling potential for a short-term bounce. **Money Flow Index (MFI)** - MFI sits at **23.89** (oversold), suggesting buyers may soon step in. --- ## Pattern Analysis: **Ascending Channel Breakdown Risk** ETH/USD is at the **lower channel support ($3,600)**. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the bullish channel and trigger bearish momentum. --- ## Probabilistic Outlook **Bullish Bounce (Primary Scenario):** If buyers defend the **$3,500–$3,600** zone and volume increases: - **First Target**: $3,800–$3,850 (EMA 20 and recent resistance). - **Second Target**: $4,000–$4,050 (upper channel resistance and bearish OB). **Bearish Breakdown (Alternate Scenario):** If price closes below **$3,500**: - **First Target**: $3,300 (next significant support). - **Second Target**: $3,200–$3,000 (psychological support and structural zone). --- ## Key Signals to Watch: 1. **Lower Channel Support ($3,600):** Break below = bearish continuation. 2. **Volume on Breakdown or Bounce:** Rising volume confirms the move. 3. **EMA 100 Support ($3,613):** Holding this EMA could trigger a short-term bounce. 4. **Stochastic RSI and MFI:** Both oversold; favoring bounce unless sellers persist. --- ## Order books Took a significant hit, losing about 15% of its prior levels. The market depth ration has remained stable, inferring bullish sentiment overall but weakening books can deteriorate this, we will look for order book levels to recover past today's levels to validate reversal. ## Conclusion ETH/USD is at a **critical juncture** within the ascending channel. Buyers must defend **$3,600** to maintain the bullish structure. A successful bounce targets **$3,800–$4,000**, while a breakdown below **$3,500** could open the door for a decline toward **$3,300–$3,200**. 🔍 **Watch volume and key support levels for confirmation of the next move.** 🚨
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by EncryptShawn
[GEX] 12/16 Weekly SPX AnalysisNow, let’s take a look at the expected SPX trading range for the week based on the auto GEX levels for TradingView: It’s clear that we’re currently in positive gamma territory , primarily due to the December 20 expiration. However, the mid-week expirations leading up to that date remain in negative gamma territory, a direct result of last week’s bearish moves—though this can change within a single day. Looking ahead to Friday, we expect a range-bound, more predictable trading environment, likely holding above 6045 and below 6100 based on current levels. IVR and IVx remain low, and we don’t anticipate any increase before Christmas unless the market reaches the “total deny zone” between 6025 and 6040. The greatest IV backwardation is present between December 20 and December 23, as average IV ticked up slightly following last week’s bearish action. This makes that particular expiration combination potentially appealing for time spread strategies. Stay alert! The deny zone is near, and a quick move through the HVL could suddenly disrupt what currently appears to be a relatively predictable trading range. Conversely, a breakout above 6100 could spark a permabull end-of-year rally to the upside.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
Bearish Setup on EUR/USD After Rejection at Key ResistanceTrading Idea on 1-Hour Chart (H1): The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of a potential bearish continuation after testing a key resistance zone around 1.0540 - 1.0544, which aligns with a previously broken downward trendline. The market structure on the H1 timeframe indicates lower highs, suggesting sellers are regaining control. Technical Confirmation: Key Resistance Zone: The 1.0540 - 1.0544 area acts as a significant rejection point where bullish momentum appears to be weakening. Break-Retest Pattern: The price broke below a descending trendline and is now retesting the zone, showing clear signs of rejection. RSI Indicator: The RSI is currently near 60, reflecting recent bullish movement but remaining below overbought levels, which signals potential exhaustion in the upward move. Technical Confirmation: Key Resistance Zone: The 1.0540 - 1.0544 area acts as a significant rejection point where bullish momentum appears to be weakening. Break-Retest Pattern: The price broke below a descending trendline and is now retesting the zone, showing clear signs of rejection. RSI Indicator: The RSI is currently near 60, reflecting recent bullish movement but remaining below overbought levels, which signals potential exhaustion in the upward move. Summary: This idea is based on a bearish continuation pattern following rejection at a key resistance zone, supported by trendline retest and weakening bullish momentum. Confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., M15) is recommended before entry.
Short
by Jose_ManuelR