$BTCUSD History Repeats itself - LONGIn continuation of our recent analysis , we meticulously conducted a comprehensive examination of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price action. Employing a multifaceted approach, we synthesized various data inputs and discerned nuanced market conditions.
Our analysis delved into the historical 4-hour timeframe, specifically referencing November 4th, 2015. It is essential to note that the historical data, when viewed through the lens of 'relativity,' provides invaluable insights. As time elapses and market volume evolves, price action exhibits variations. This relativity facilitates a meaningful comparison between the present asset conditions and historical benchmarks.
Currently , a robust Fibonacci retracement analysis reveals a noteworthy gap of +33.381% spanning from the support zone to a key resistance level at 47,214. Upon confirmation, an anticipated swift retracement is projected, targeting approximately -41.38% at ±28.316. This critical juncture is anticipated to mark the commencement of Phase 2 within the Bull Cycle, propelling BTC price action to unprecedented heights.
Indicators
BRIEFING Week #49 : ETHBTC keeps playing the mystery game !Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Phil
LIC housing finance trade setup 29th November, 2023We are expecting a quieter move in Lic Housing Finance which is trading at 458. We have shown lic housing at 5 15 75 and 125 minute.
We are expecting that above 460 level closing with with confirmation closing We can see high levels We are expecting to see 465 470 481 491 and 505 plus levels in coming days So one can set stop loss at 448 Level.
disclaimer: these levels are just for informational and educational purpose only, Please do your own research before taking any position.
Inverted Head & Shoulders - UCHFHere we have USD/CHF on the 30 Min Chart! It looks to be outlining a potential Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern upcoming!!
The First Low or "Shoulder" @ .86792 followed by the Lower Low or "Head @ .86662 with price moving back up to the Confirmation of Pattern or "Neckline" @ .86973 makes me believe we will get a BREAK of Confirmation @ the 3rd touch of the Neckline with price continuing HIGHER!
The RSI indicator is also throwing out a Slight Divergence, strengthening Bullish Bias on this possibly imminent Reversal Pattern!
Fundamentally this week:
USD - JOLTS (Tues) Non-Farm Payroll (Wed) Unemployment Claims (Thur) Non-Farm and Unemployment (Fri)
CHF - CPI (Mon) Currency Reserve (Thur)
**Chart Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so BEWARE OF FALSE BREAKS!!
-Pattern Prediction-
*If Price Breaks and Closes below .86792, Pattern INVALIDATED!
*If Price Breaks and Closes above .86973, Price Action will initiate my Trade Action Plan!
Understanding Lagging and Leading Indicators in CryptocurrencyIn this article, we'll explore the concepts of leading and lagging indicators, common examples, and delve into the specific indicators within crypto transactional data.
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What Are Leading and Lagging Indicators?
Before we dive into the crypto-specific details, let's establish the basics. In the realm of technical analysis, indicators for traditional financial assets are often categorized as Leading, Lagging, or Macro.
Leading Indicator: Points towards the potential future direction of the price.
Lagging Indicator: Confirms patterns in prices after they have formed.
Both types of indicators play a crucial role in understanding market dynamics and making informed trading decisions.
Common Examples of Leading & Lagging Indicators
To illustrate, let's examine two common examples:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): A leading indicator, RSI hints at whether the market is becoming overbought or oversold.
Moving Averages: A lagging indicator that relies on historical data, providing a retrospective view of average price behavior.
Crypto-Specific Leading Indicators
1. Mining Data
Mining, the backbone of the Bitcoin network, involves running the hashing algorithm to secure transaction integrity. Key indicators include:
Hash Rate: Indicates the network's strength; a higher hash rate implies a more robust Bitcoin network.
Mining Distribution: Assess whether mining concentration is increasing, potentially impacting network decentralization.
Transaction Fees: Offers insights into user types and potential adoption trends.
2. Network Activity
A proxy for customer data, network activity includes:
Number of Addresses: Reflects user engagement.
Transactions per Second: Indicates transactional activity levels.
Average Transaction Value: Provides insights into transaction sizes.
3. Scarcity
Bitcoin's scarcity is a fundamental characteristic, and the Stock-to-Flow model gauges this relationship:
Stock-to-Flow (SF): Measures scarcity by assessing the ratio of existing stocks to new stocks.
4. Broader Ecosystem Data
Metrics from various sources like Blockchain.com, Glass Node, and Woo Bull Charts offer insights:
Market Value vs Realised Value (MVRV): Measures the market value of Bitcoin relative to its last price movement, indicating user hoarding behavior.
Wallet and Exchange Data: Tracks metrics like wallet downloads and exchange customer growth.
Macro Indicators in Crypto
1. The Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY measures the US Dollar against other currencies, showing a correlation with Bitcoin:
A falling DXY suggests dollar weakness, potentially driving investors towards Bitcoin as a store of value.
2. Stock Markets
Bitcoin's relationship with stock markets is complex:
Currently correlated due to similar investment behaviors in search of yield.
A changing relationship could indicate shifts in broader market dynamics.
3. Bond Yields
Bond yields act as a macro indicator:
Increasing bond yields are a leading indicator of inflation, potentially affecting Bitcoin positively due to its store of value characteristics.
While these indicators operate in the short term, the Fundamental Analysis, exploring broader measures of adoption and influence on prices. Understanding both technical and fundamental aspects is essential for navigating the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency trading.
Personal Lookback 💜 November's Profits, Success Rate, RisksGreetings, fellow traders,
As we embark on the second day of December, I'm filled with immense pride to announce that our previous 12 market analytics from November have triumphantly achieved their respective target prices. This remarkable accomplishment spans a diverse spectrum of assets, including precious metals like gold, forex pairs like EUR, and the ever-evolving realm of cryptocurrencies, exemplified by Bitcoin. For your convenience, a comprehensive list of these TradingView analytics will be readily available in the description below.
While we've navigated the market with remarkable precision, avoiding any unfortunate stop loss hits, I wholeheartedly encourage the integration of safety measures into your future trading endeavors. Your well-being and financial security remain paramount, and implementing prudent risk management strategies is an essential cornerstone of success.
As I reflect upon this journey, I extend my deepest gratitude for the unwavering motivation and inspiration you have bestowed upon me. Your unwavering support has been the driving force behind my commitment to providing insightful market analysis and fostering a community of empowered traders.
Together, let us strive to maintain, if not surpass, this exceptional success rate. May our collective passion for market mastery continue to propel us towards new heights of financial prosperity.
I wish you all the very best in your trading endeavors, and may longevity fill your paths.
Happy trading, and long life!
Gold:
Gold Rush with AI: Analyzing a Bullish Trend
Managing Gold Long & SL - A Multi-Indicator Consensus Indicator
Gold's Story of Resilience and Strength
Gold's in the door of Breakout or Fakeout 🧈 EMA Analytics w/ AI
Gold Rush with AI: Is a Bullish Trend broken?
Cross-Checking Gold’s Supertrend Adaptively on MTFA
FOREX:
EUR's Retracement: ECB indicated Yield-Seeking on USD
Factors Contributing to the EUR's Decline Against the USD
An AI Analytics - 💶 EURUSD Trajectory: Bullish Market Dynamics
Video - Powerful EUR Fundamentals - AI suggests Technicals Align
An AI Analytics - 💶 EURUSD Trajectory: Bullish Market Dynamics
Crypto:
Deciphering the Charts: A Closer Look at BTCUSDT's Future
Kind regards,
Ely
HOW-TO apply an indicator that is only available upon request?Recently, I've realized that my typical day involves constant encounters with indicators. For example, when the alarm clock rings, it's an indicator that it's morning and time to get up. I am checking the phone and once again paying attention to the indicators: battery charge and network signal level. I figure out in just one second that such a complex element of the phone as the battery is 100% charged and the signal from the cell towers is good enough.
Then I’m going out on a busy street, and it's only because of the traffic light indicator that I can safely cross the road to reach the parking lot. Looking at the on-board computer of my car, with its many indicators, I know that all the components of this complicated mechanism are working properly, and I can start driving.
Now, imagine what would happen if none of this existed. I would have to act blindly, relying on luck: hoping that I would wake up on time, that the phone would work today, that car drivers would let me cross the road, and that my own car would not suddenly stop because it ran out of gas.
We can say that indicators help to explain complex processes or phenomena in simple and understandable language. I think they will always be in demand in today's complex world, where we deal with a huge flow of information that cannot be perceived without simplifications.
If we talk about the financial market, it's all about constant data, data, data. Add in the element of randomness and everything becomes totally messed up.
To create indicators that simplify the analysis of financial information, the TradingView platform uses its own programming language — Pine Script . With this language, you can describe not only unique indicators, but also strategies — meaning algorithms for opening and closing positions.
All these tools are grouped together under the term "script" . Just like a trade or educational idea, a script can also be published. After this, it will be available to other users. The published script can be:
1. Visible in the list of community scripts with unrestricted access. Simply find the script by its name and add it to the chart.
2. Visible in the list of community scripts, but access is by invitation only. You'll need to find the script by its name and request access from its author.
3. Not visible in the list of community scripts, but accessible via a link. To add such a script to a chart, you need to have the link.
4. Not visible in the list of community scripts; access is by invitation only. You'll need both a link to the script and permission for access obtained from its author.
If you have added to your favorites a script that requires permission from the author, you'll only be able to start using the indicators after the author includes you in the script's user list. Without this, you will get an error message every time you add an indicator to the chart. In this case, contact the author to learn how to gain access. Instructions on how to contact the author are located after the script's description and highlighted within a frame. There you will also find the 'Add to favorite indicators' button.
The access can be valid until a certain date or indefinitely. If the author has granted access, you will be able to add the script to the chart.
GRT The Graph Price TargetBinance, along with its CEO 'CZ,' has confessed to federal charges and committed to settling fines amounting to $4.3 billion.
The crypto exchange “admits it engaged in anti-money laundering, unlicensed money transmitting and sanctions violations"!
The question arises: from where will these substantial funds be derived?
One possible source is Binance's Proof-Of-Reserves, which reportedly exceeds 100%.
Among the tokens impacted is GRT The Graph.
I've set a short-term price target for CGRT The Graph at $0.11.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
BRIEFING Week #48 : "Rotations Strategies at Play"Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
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Phil
SOL Solana Price TargetIf you haven`t sold SOL here:
Then you need to know that Binance, along with its CEO 'CZ,' has confessed to federal charges and committed to settling fines amounting to $4.3 billion.
The crypto exchange “admits it engaged in anti-money laundering, unlicensed money transmitting and sanctions violations"!
The question arises: from where will these substantial funds be derived?
One possible source is Binance's Proof-Of-Reserves, which reportedly exceeds 100%.
Among the tokens impacted is SOL Solana.
I've set a short-term price target for SOL Solana at $30.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
📈 TradingView Analysis: $APE/USDT Falling Wedge Breakout! 🚀Chart Analysis:
Pair: $APE/USDT
Timeframe: 4-Hour Chart
🔍 Technical Overview:
APE/USDT has been forming a clear falling wedge pattern.
Price has recently broken out above the upper trendline of the falling wedge.
📉 Previous Price Action:
The falling wedge has been a consistent pattern, indicating a period of consolidation.
A series of lower highs and lower lows were observed within the wedge.
🚀 Breakout Confirmation:
The recent breakout above the upper trendline suggests a potential trend reversal.
Volume confirmation during the breakout adds strength to the bullish case.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: The next resistance level to watch is at .
Support: The previous resistance, now turned support, is at .
📊 Indicators:
RSI: Showing signs of bullish divergence, indicating strengthening buying pressure.
MACD: Bullish crossover, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
📅 Upcoming Events:
Keep an eye on upcoming events, announcements, or catalysts that could impact the price.
🔒 Risk Management:
Set stop-loss orders to manage risk in case of unexpected price movements.
Adjust positions according to your risk tolerance and trading strategy.
📈 Conclusion:
The breakout from the falling wedge pattern suggests a potential bullish trend for $APE/USDT. However, always exercise caution and conduct thorough analysis before making trading decisions.
📣 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and it's important to conduct your own research. The breakout scenario is based on technical analysis, and market conditions can change rapidly.
👥 Join the Discussion:
Share your thoughts on the $APE/USDT falling wedge breakout. What's your price target, and how are you approaching this trade?
🚀 Happy Trading! 📈✨
Interpreting RSI (Relative Strength Index)The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements. It is a versatile tool that can be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions, as well as divergences and trend strength.
Overbought and Oversold Conditions
The RSI oscillates between 0 and 100. Traditionally, the RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. These levels are not set in stone, and they can vary depending on the security and the market conditions. However, they are a good starting point for identifying potential buying and selling opportunities.
Overbought:
An RSI reading above 70 indicates that the security is overbought, which means that it has been trading up rapidly and may be due for a correction. However, it is important to note that the RSI can stay in overbought territory for an extended period of time before a correction occurs.
Overbought RSI indicator
ETHUSD(Day Chart)
As you can see in the chart, when the RSI indicator hit the 70 level, the price started dropping continuously.
Oversold:
An RSI reading below 30 indicates that the security is oversold, which means that it has been trading down rapidly and may be due for a bounce. However, like with overbought conditions, the RSI can stay in oversold territory for an extended period of time before a bounce occurs.
Oversold RSI indicator
BTCUSD (weekly Chart)
As you can see in the chart, when the RSI indicator hit the 30 level, the price started bouncing from the bottom level.
The RSI indicator has accurately predicted the bottoms of Bitcoin's major bear markets in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
Stay tuned for more updates on this topic.
Regards
Hexa
AAPL Apple Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold the Double Top on AAPL:
or reentered here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AAPL Apple prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 172.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $5.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UBER Technologies Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold UBER here:
or bought the dip here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UBER Technologies prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $1.84.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Rising Support HOLD or BREAK?! - EGHere I have EUR/GBP on the 4 Hr Chart which has been CLEARLY using this Rising Support as a means to continue higher!
With the First Test on Aug. 23rd, there have been 4 more tests on the Rising Support with the 4th and 5th tests failing to keep Prices Higher than the High created after the 3rd Test! Not to mention the time taken between bounce 4 and 5 is much less than bounces given from 1st-3rd.
The 200 EMA has started to dip under the supposed Rising Support and is in position for Price to test the Rising Support again!
This leads me to believe EUR may be weakening so my bias on this pair is BEARISH!
-BUT-
What will the 6th bounce provide?! HOLD or BREAK?!
Fundamentally This Week:
EUR - Financial Stability Review (Wed), French, German & Flash PMI (Thur), Retail Sales (Fri)
GBP - Autumn Forecast (Wed), Flash PMI (Thur)
DIS The Walt Disney Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold DIS before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DIS The Walt Disney Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $3.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ETH Ethereum ETF filed by BlackRockIf you haven`t bought the dip on ETH:
Then you need to know that asset management giant BlackRock last Thursday officially filed for a spot ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), doubling down on its cryptocurrency bets amid investor optimism about the approval of such investment vehicles!
I`m targeting $2350.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
DLO DLocal Limited Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DLO DLocal Limited prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $1.42.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
BRIEFING Week #47 : Take Risks, let Markets Decide !Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Xau/Usd (Gold)Hello traders!
The xau/usd (gold) pair is in a triangle pattern. In my opinion, there are two scenarios. Scenario number 1: The pair should test the level of 1975.00 and then take a buy move at the level of 1992.0 and continue a buy move towards the level of 2009.33. Scenario number 2: The pair should test the level of 1975.00 and then take a buy move at the level 1992.0 without breaking the line to go to the level of 1941.00. Wait to enter the trade! Be careful!
Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar!
MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰
THANK YOU!
GOOD LUCK!
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
GOLD Towards 1924 Gold has already retested the 1990 area. Now, we anticipate a decline towards 1924 in the coming days. If any daily candle opens above 1992, we will reconsider selling. Currently, we observe significant bearish moves. I have posted a lower timeframe, providing insight into the ascending channel. I am awaiting a breakout; once it occurs, gold will be in our favor.
BRIEFING Week #46 : Early Confirmation SignalsHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil