SPX might be getting ready to revisit the channel's lower boundUnsurprisingly, yesterday’s FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the monetary policy. Then, during the press conference, Jerome Powell discussed the resilient economy, strong labor market, and persistent challenges to taming inflation. At some point during his speech, the stock market erased its losses and entered a green territory. However, this optimism lasted very shortly until the FED’s chairman suggested that central bankers had not reached enough confidence to start easing the monetary conditions, making a rate cut in March 2024 seem unlikely. As a result, the “higher for longer” theme is to stay with us and continue to exert pressure on the economy (plus, it is highly possible that we have not even seen the full effects of previous rate hikes on the economy due to the lag). With that said, our attention will be paid to today’s and tomorrow’s releases, particularly S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, participation rate, and payrolls.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily graph of the SPX and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of VIX, which has stopped making lower lows and has been testing the resistance at $14.49 since late December 2023.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Indices
NASDAQ: Is the correction starting?Nasdaq isn't overbought on the 1D time-frame anymore but technically it remains bullish (RSI = 63.538, MACD = 210.050, ADX = 41.826) and will continue to be as long as the two month Channel Up holds. It may be supported by the 1D MA50 but if the index follows the late July peak formation and crosses under the 0.382 Fibonacci level, then we expect a technical short term correction. The crossing will be our sell entry trigger and we will target the S1 level (TP = 16,200).
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Where are those dollors?An update to my previous idea,
We see strong down trend in DXY, more dump for traditional market, and also bearish trend in crypto market,...
So what are these dollars waiting for? maybe waiting for better narratives or maybe better supports in markets! get prepared and be on call!
Sometime ago I have posted this idea:
Now we an update to that analysis with smaller timeframe, and we see a nice support in green box, I would think we will have some range here or more downtrend for DXY in upcoming days
What are your thoughts?
US30: Potential Buy Setup at 38030 with DXY Bearish MomentumIn tomorrow's trading session, our focus is on US30 as we identify a potential buying opportunity around the 38030 zone. US30, representing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is currently in an uptrend but experiencing a correction phase, with the price approaching the critical support and resistance area at 38030.
Adding to our analysis is the bearish momentum observed in the DXY (US Dollar Index), which has a negative correlation with indices like US30. This bearish momentum in DXY typically favors rallies in indices, including US30. Therefore, the combination of US30's technical setup and the downward movement in DXY presents an intriguing opportunity for buyers.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Spooz has completed the Inner Index Rally at 4882 and is continuing its upward movement toward a higher target; the Outer Index Rally marked at 4980. However, once we reach the designated target, there is a possibility of a squeeze that could cause prices to drop to the Mean Support level of 4845. In the meantime, the index may retest the Mean Support level of 4845 before continuing its upward trend.
JSE 40 Index | Daily | Speculation Looking at the JSE 40 all-share Index on the daily chart we can take note that the index has been trading downwards since peaking sometime during Feb 23, now looking to the left again we can take note that after the release of the 1st quarter Dividend & Earnings release the JSE drop on both accounts.
Now looking to the right, we can take note that the JSE has been hovering/consolidating on our 8,988 level for the past few days ahead of this weeks CPI, PPI & SARB Interest Rate announcements.
Looking further to our right we can expect the JSE to push up from 8,988 to around 9,843 or 10,017 before heading down to 8,229.
Else we can expect the JSE to just tumble down to 8,229 if it closes below 8,988.
Potential Market Movers:
CPI (MoM) - Apr :: 24 May 2023
PPI (MoM) - Apr :: 25 May 2023
SARB Interest Rates :: 25 May 2023
The DAX could be at (or near) a swing lowIndex futures held their ground overnight, and the US dollar's rally is showing signs of near-term exhaustion. And that indicates a subtle change in sentiment ahead of today's open.
The DAX found support at its 50day EMA on Wednesday, which is just above the 2021 high. Given a small-ranged bullish hammer formed alongside higher volume suggests a 'change in hands' between sellers to buyers, so we're on guard for a bounce.
Bulls could seek to enter within yesterday's range with a stop beneath the 2021 high and initially target gap resistance around 16,490 - a break above which brings 16,600 into focus for bulls.
However, as we suspect the US dollar is set to extend its gains after a pause in its rally and that equities are yet to make a decent retracement, we're anticipating another leg lower towards the support zone just above 16,000.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Spooz's robust movement from our Mean Sup 4745 toward our designated target, Inner Index Rally 4882, is on its way, leaving no fingerprints at the crime scene at the completed Outer Index Rally 4807. The advancement toward a higher target Outer Index Rally 5035 is now in its making. However, once we reach the designated target of Inner Index Rally 4882, we may face a squeeze that could cause prices to drop down to the Mean Support level of 4798 and possibly even the Mean Support level of 4725.
DJ30 H4 | Potential bullish breakoutDJ30 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially break above this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 37,543.95
Why we like it:
There is a potential breakout level
Stop Loss: 37,163.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take Profit: 38,020.69
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US2000 H4 | Downward trend to resumeUS2000 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 1,944.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 1,988.39
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 1,874.74
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SP500 H4 | Approaching 50% Fibo supportSP500 is trading close to a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take profit target.
Entry: 4,740.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 4,678.99
Why we like it:
There is a swing-low support level
Take Profit: 4,803.69
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Nasdaq - Retracement TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 10 years the Nasdaq has been trading in a very obvious rising channel formation. Considering that we saw a +50% pump in 2024, the Nasdaq is certainly ready for a (short term) correction back to the lower support trendline which I mentioned in my analysis. From there I do expect the longer term bullish continuation though.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
US100 M30 / NASDAQ SHORT TRADE OPPORTUNITY💲✅Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to US100 M30. I see more bearish signals at the moment, for example, the chart did not set a new high, meaning that the Bulls are weak. Accumulation at the ATH level and the beginning of the bearish domination after a breakout. My target for this trade is the price of 16360.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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NAS100 H1 | Bullish bounce off 50.0% Fibo supportNAS100 is trading close to a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take profit target.
Entry: 16,761.10
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 16,700.00
Why we like it:
There is a level that sits under a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 16,909.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Is the ASX 200 about to roll over?Looking at the weekly chart, bulls may have something to worry about. The market is yet to even test 7500 let alone break above it, and each time it has tried (and failed) to do so, the ASX has fallen by double digits in percentage terms.
A bearish engulfing candle formed in the first week of the year after once again faltering at those cycle highs. And if we're to see even just a 10% drop from the 2024 high it could, the index will find itself back beneath 7000. But if bears really get their way for another -16% drop, the ASX will be back around 6400.
What could make that happen? Well, markets have been aggressively pricing in 5 - 7 Fed cuts this year which may not arrive. And if the wheels fall off the global economy to justify said cuts, that could also be bad for the stock market. So bulls may want to ask themselves if they want to be along at these levels, where the market is yet to every trade above it. As we could be in for a deeper pullback at the very least.
NASDAQ: Potential correction to the 1D MA200.Nasdaq is on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.007, MACD = 103.260, ADX = 29.522) as since January 5th it reversed before testing the 1D MA50 and is near the R1 level (16,980). The last three 1D candles have been flat and with the RSI trading downwards (Bearish Divergence), it is a first sign of a potential technical decline. This is like the top pattern of July 18th 2023, also on an RSI Bearish Divergence. In accordance to that price action, we expect yet another decline under the 1D MA50, for a close test of the 1D MA200. Our target is at the top of the S2 Zone (TP = 15,800).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES: Top is being formed, 1D RSI Bearish Divergence.Dow Jones has been trading sideways since the December 28th 2023 High, having tested that Resistance after another three times. Naturally the 4H timeframe is neutral and the 1D technical outlook is about to as well (RSI = 56.255, MACD = 185.180, ADX = 33.836). The 1D RSI in particular is under a LH trendline, which is of the same shape as August 1st 2023, May 1st 2023 and December 13th 2022, all major market tops of the past 13 months.
This is a strong technical Bearish Divergence and consequently we expect a pullback to at least the 1D MA50. Based on those past peaks and corrections though, we should be expecting at least a 0.382 Fibonacci pullback, thus our target is near the S2 level (TP = 36,000).
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NASDAQ Technical Outlook at 16670 SupportHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session, our focus is on NAS100, particularly around the 16670 zone. NASDAQ is currently in an uptrend but is undergoing a correction phase as it approaches the trend at 16670 support and resistance area.
From a technical perspective, traders should closely observe the price action around this level. Analyze key support and resistance zones, trendlines, and relevant indicators to gauge market sentiment and identify potential entry and exit points. Utilizing technical tools such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD can provide additional insights into the strength of the trend and potential reversals.
DowJones on the Radar: US30 Technical Analysis at 37300Hey Traders, in the coming week, our focus is on the US30, particularly around the 37300 zone. The DowJones has been on a solid uptrend, showcasing its resilience in the market. As we enter the new trading session, we find the index in a correction phase, edging closer to the critical 37300 support and resistance area. This level has historically played a significant role, often acting as a pivot point for the DowJones.
Examining the technical indicators, the current correction appears to be a healthy retracement within the broader uptrend. The 37300 zone aligns with key Fibonacci levels, adding an extra layer of significance. Traders keen on trend-following strategies might eye this as a potential buying opportunity, anticipating a continuation of the upward trajectory. However, it's essential to keep a watchful eye on market sentiment, geopolitical events, and any unexpected developments that could influence the DowJones in the upcoming sessions.
In summary, the technical outlook for US30 around the 37300 zone suggests a strategic approach, emphasizing the importance of this level in the context of the broader market trend. As always, trade safe, and stay informed about the evolving market dynamics throughout the week.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Spooz's extended movement toward our designated target, Mean Res 4783 and Key Res 4800, is noteworthy. However, the completed Outer Index rally poses a significant barrier to advancement towards higher targets: Inner Index Rally 4882 and the next Outer Index Rally 5035. The current level of tight trading range supports this theory. Despite this, current market conditions suggest we may experience a squeeze that could drive the prices down to the Mean Support level at 4745 and possibly even the Inner Index Dip at 4595.