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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz extended down movement from our designated target Key Res 4800 and Outer Index Rally 4807 and now rests comfortably at our Mean Support level of 4700. The current market conditions suggest we experience a squeeze that could take us down to the Mean Support level at 4644 and possibly even the Inner Index Dip at 4595. However, the current level of support may provide a rebound to the newly created Mean Resistance level at 4740 before continuing its downward movement.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
A Deep Dive into DXY's Fundamental LandscapeGreetings Traders, Our focus pivots to the US Dollar Index (DXY), where we are actively evaluating a potential selling opportunity around the 102.900 zone. As DXY charts its course within a downtrend, the ongoing correction phase places it in proximity to the trend at the critical 102.900 resistance area. This comprehensive analysis delves into the fundamental landscape, incorporating key indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, highlighting the significance of monitoring DXY for a broader market perspective. Commencing with the FOMC decisions, the most recent meeting on December 13, 2023, maintained the interest rate at 2.00%. The accompanying dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve underscores a commitment to supporting economic growth amidst inflationary pressures. This dovish stance has implications for DXY, as it sets the stage for potential weakness in the US Dollar. Turning our attention to the CPI data, the latest figures reveal a year-over-year inflation rate of 1.2% for October 25, 2023. While this marks a slight increase from the previous 0.8%, it remains below the FOMC's target. The easing inflation provides the Federal Reserve with flexibility in its approach to interest rates, contributing to the overall dovish sentiment. The interest rate differentials between the United States and other major economies further shape the DXY landscape. As of December 13, 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate stands at 2.00%, while other central banks, such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan, maintain lower rates. This divergence amplifies the potential for DXY weakness, as traders seek higher yields in alternative currencies. Considering the broader market context, monitoring DXY is paramount before making trading decisions across USD pairs, gold, cryptocurrencies, and indices. The inverse correlation between DXY and these assets underscores the interconnected nature of global financial markets. A weakening DXY tends to boost the appeal of alternative assets, impacting trading dynamics across various instruments. In conclusion, as we assess a potential selling opportunity around the 102.900 zone in DXY, the confluence of CPI and FOMC dynamics paints a nuanced picture of USD weakness. Traders are urged to keep a vigilant eye on DXY for insights into the broader market sentiment, influencing trading decisions across a spectrum of financial instruments. Best of luck in your trades, Joe
TVC:DXYShort
by JoeChampion
1
S&P500: Top officially formed. Eyes 4,500S&P500 has turned neutral on the 1D technica outlook (RSI = 47.788, MACD = 28.200, ADX = 43.854) as it made a LL for the first time since the October 27th 2023 bottom, marking the end of that two month rally. That was the latest bullish wave of the 15 month Channel Up. According to the three prior peaks that formed HH on the Channel Up, the index should kickstart a pullback that should cross under the 1D MA50 and may extend as low as -9.00% even. The RSI Channel Down patterns among all those bearish waves look very much alike. Consequently we will stay bearish and set a less aggressive target over the 1D MA200 (TP = 4,500). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
Selling might not be done yet, what to watch out forRecently, we discussed how overbought conditions in the stock market were making a case for correction. Now, with the major market indices retreating slightly lower, we are looking for more clues about where the market might be headed next. To support a thesis about the SPX going lower, we would like to see RSI, MACD, and Stochastic continue declining on the daily graph. In addition to that, we would like to see the SPX break below Support 1 near $4,697 and further rise in the VIX. Contrarily, to support the bullish odds, we would like to see the SPX hold above Support 1 and a reversal in the mentioned technical indicators, along with the drop in the VIX. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX within the upward-sloping channel and two simple moving averages. Interestingly, the value of the 20-day SMA closely coincides with that of Support 1; a failure of the moving average to hold selling pressure will tilt the odds to the bearish side. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
DOW JONES: Under the 4H MA50 for the first time in 2 months.Dow Jones has turned neutral on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 55.920, MACD = 42.900, ADX = 19.367) as today it crossed under the 4H MA50 for the first time since November 1st. Even though the price remains inside the two month Channel Up, this 4H MA50 crossing constitutes the first validated sell signal coming off the big Bearish Divergence on the 1D RSI which is trading inside a Channel Down. Even though the S1 level is the first level of Support, we expect the pullback to correct a sizeable portion of that rally and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 36,000) around the S2 level with a relative tolerance range up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
SPX500 Short Trade Idea for SPX500 Bias: Very Bearish Overall Score: -7 Commitment of Traders (COT) Bias: -1 Institutional traders are showing a mild bearish sentiment towards the S&P 500. Retail Sentiment: 0 Retail sentiment is neutral, suggesting no significant directional bias from this group. Seasonality: -1 Historically, this time of year exhibits some bearish tendencies for the S&P 500. Trend Reading: -2 The current trend for the S&P 500 is bearish, pointing to a downward momentum. GDP Growth: 1 US GDP growth is showing positive signs, offering a bit of a counter-narrative to the bearish view. However, it's not enough to overturn the broader bearish sentiment. Inflation: -3 A concerning inflation situation suggests potential headwinds for the equity market. Unemployment: -1 Rising unemployment can lead to decreased consumer spending, adding pressure on stocks. Interest Rates: 0 Interest rates are neutral and are not significantly influencing the current direction of the S&P 500. Conclusion: The prevailing indicators, especially trend and inflation, support a very bearish stance on the S&P 500. While there are positive GDP growth figures, the overall score suggests downside potential.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Elite_Forex
Macro Monday 27 - Headwinds in Europe but Spain thrivingMacro Monday 27 Headwinds for Europe but Spain demonstrating relative strength As it is New Years Eve I wanted to do an early release for tomorrow. This week we are taking a look at another major market Index in Europe and we will also look at one smaller market within this geographical location, Spain, due to its strong chart set up and promising economic data released in December 2023. EURO STOXX 50 Index - $SE5E The EURO STOXX 50 index is known as Eurozone’s leading blue-chip index and is designed to represent the 50 largest and most liquid companies in the eurozone. It was designed by STOXX, an index provider owned by Deutsche Börse Group (which operates one of the world's largest stock exchanges by market capitalization – the Frankfurt Stock Exchange). STOXX have an array of interesting index’s that we might review over coming weeks. The Euro STOXX index is composed of 50 stocks from 11 countries in the Eurozone. These are the top fifty largest and most liquid stocks. The index futures and options on the EURO STOXX 50, traded on Eurex, are among the most liquid products in Europe and the world. The Top Three Holdings (representing 20% of overall EURO STOXX 50 index): 1. ASML Holding NV NASDAQ:ASML : Microelectronics solutions provider that offers semiconductor manufacturing equipment. 2. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton OTC:LVMHF : World Leader in luxury brands such as Tiffany & Co, Christian Dior, Marc Jacobs, TAG Heuer, and Bulgari. 3. TotalEnergies SE EURONEXT:TTE : This is a global multi-energy company that produces and markets energies: oil and biofuels, natural gas and green gases, renewables and electricity. The company has 100,000 employees and is active in 130 countries. Interestingly the EURO STOXX 50 Index typically represents approximately 60% weighting of the STOXX Europe 600 Index, which is derived from the STOXX Europe Total Market Index LSE:TMI which is a subset of the STOXX Global 1800 Index. Talk about a game of Russian dolls. We will look at these other charts at another time, for now we are focused on the arrow head of the commercial European markets, the Top 50 companies in the EURO STOXX 50. The EURO STOXX 50 Index can provide a great overview on how the largest and most liquid companies in Europe are performing in aggregate, thus giving us insight into the European commercial markets direction and the European economy. So lets take a look at the chart. The Chart Whilst the chart is in a general uptrend since 2009 with successive higher lows, we appear to have made a long term pennant breakout however there are a number of concerns that jump out at me. ▫️ We are approaching the July 2007 market highs and if surpassed we will then have another overhead resistance from the March 2000 All Time Market highs. These are significant resistance levels. ▫️ We could be forming a rising pennant at present so even if we breach the July 2007 highs, we have the intermittent pennant ceiling to also contend with. Whilst these are genuine concerns, at present we are trending upwards with the 21 month SMA sloping upwards. What to watch for? Bear Perspective: ▫️ A breach of the 21 month moving average followed by, ▫️ A breach of the rising wedge lower boundary. NOT GOOD Bull Perspective: ▫️ We break above the July 2007 Top and make support on it eventually finding additional support from the 21 monthly moving average as time moves on. Would I trade this chart? No! However, it is an exceptionally interesting chart that offers valuable perspective on the major components within the European commercial markets. It provides us with an interesting perspective on the European Economy and can help us understand the broader opportunity or risks within the market. IBEX 35 Index - BME:IBC We are now going to have a look at the top 35 stocks in the Spanish stock market as this market has proven to be an outlier in 2023. The IBEX 35 Index is made up of the 35 most liquid stocks traded on the Spanish stock market. Between 2000 and 2007, this index outperformed many of its Western peers, driven by relatively strong domestic economic growth which particularly helped construction and real estate stocks. In these bull markets Spain proved to have more volatility to the upside, however that obviously comes with the potential opposite downside volatility also. In any event, we can take advantage of one of Europe’s fast paced markets and consider individual stocks within it. Spain as an outlier I have focused in on Spain as the chart looked more promising than the markets in other European countries, thereafter I found some economic data and narratives that support this potentially strong chart set up. ▫️ Spain is the 4th largest economy of the EU - save for that of the United Kingdom - and the 14th largest in the world. ▫️ Spain is the 13th largest recipient of foreign investments in the world. More than 14,600 foreign firms have set up their business in Spain and this appears to be a continuing trend. ▫️ As recently as the 18th December it was announced that Spanish exports exceeded €320 billion from January to October 2023, an all-time high, according to government statistics. ▫️ Industries leading this boom were the automobile, capital goods and food, beverage, and tobacco sectors. ▫️ The Spanish state also confirmed that the nation has a current account surplus of 3% of GDP, the best figure recorded since 2018. ▫️ Geographically, 61.6% of total Spanish exports were sent to the European Union in October 2023, while exports to non-EU countries accounted for 38.4% of the total, demonstrating Spain’s global reach is versatile and not restricted to Europe. Finally a quote from the Spain's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business "The Spanish economy ……in the complex international context, has maintained its constant weight in international trade in goods and increased its share of the European market in recent years,". IBEX 35 Index Top 3 Holdings: 1. Iberdola BME:IBE (14%) – A clean energy utility company with 40,000 employees. It constructs, operates and manages power generation plants, transmission and distribution facilities and other assets. The company produces electricity using conventional and renewable energy source 2. Inditex BME:ITX (14%) – One of the worlds largest distribution groups for the likes of ZARA, PULL&BEAR, MASSIMO DUTTI and BERSHKA. These brands are more aligned with mid-range affordability for the middle class. 3. Santander BME:SAN (11%) – The 28th largest bank I the world with 200,000 employees, 166 million customers and 1.7 Trillion in total assets (all global figures). The top three holdings making up almost 40% of the IBEX 35 weighting are actually a nice blend of Energy, Staples and Finance. This adds to my preference to actually invest in the IBEX 35 Index as it appears to be a nicely diversified index from a review of the major holdings. The Chart A long term pennant has made a defined breakout of the range and found support with a bounce off the 21 month moving average. Historically you can see the relevance of the 21 month moving average, once lost after the 2000 and 2007 top it was a clear indication to exit the market. Conversely, once price is established above the 21 month moving average you can see that you typically have good odds of upward momentum. The advantage of watching an index like this, outside of a liquid trade, is that it gives us an indication that the Spanish market has relative strength at present and companies within the index, and potentially outside it, may offer a greater probability of returns than other markets in the Eurozone. I guess being a smaller well diversified and more nimble market in the sunny Mediterranean has its benefits. I highly recommend you review last weeks Macro Monday which looked at how positive four large Global Index’s are looking at present. These were the Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF - AMEX:VT , iShares Global Energy ETF - AMEX:IXC , Global X FinTech ETF - NASDAQ:FINX and the Global X Blockchain ETF - NASDAQ:BKCH If you enjoy my coverage of these indices or would like me to cover some others, please let me know in the comments, Happy New Year Folks, sláinte 🥂 PUKA
TVC:SX5E
by PukaCharts
NASDAQ: Breached the 4H MA50. Sell signal.Nasdaq just crossed on the current 4H candle under the 4H MA50, which has been the short term Support since December 8th. Even though it turned neutral on its 4H outlook (RSI = 45.004, MACD = 31.260, ADX = 51.152), 1D remains bullish (RSI = 65.645) so a potential decline will serve as a technical pullback inside the seven week Channel Down. The 4H RSI is already on a Bearish Divergence much like it was on the last Bearish Leg of November and a candle close under the 4H MA50 will validate the sell signal. Our target is the bottom of the Channel Up on an expected -2.88% decline (as the previous one) and potential contact with the 4H MA200 (TP = 16,480). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by InvestingScope
2
200AUD (Index) LongsMost major markets have been breaking All-Time-Highs. Momentum is still strongly bullish. Currently in a Bullish Outbreak, occurring after two same-sized retracements (represented by congruent grey rectangles). No indication of reversal, expecting price to continue hitting new highs. Preparing for Long positions after appropriate candlestick close. Keep an eye out for signs of bearish reversal. Invalidation point placed before the opening gap (red dashed line). Aggressively add to position if in profit, once price has found support. Avoid adding to position if negative.
CAPITALCOM:AU200Long
by virtual_an0maly
BTC Expectations for the new year, one mfin ride. More below! BTC has shown bullish willingness. I anticipate the new year to visit the lows around 25K, and the quarterly FVG, I will be there to accumulate some. Market might decide not to even go there and just fill the inefficiency at 32K and decide to moon from there. I'd worry about BTC if we close below 19K and stay there for over a couple of days. I'm not a Crypto bull but I'm for sure a Fiat bear so it forces me to be a crypto bull to a certain extent. If the ETF goes through and it most likely will, I expect volatility but eventually the highs around 65K will get swept. I highly doubt they're safe and I want a piece of the cake. With a bearish TVC:DXY and a bearish outlook on the future of fiat in general, we might see crazy numbers on BTC. I will keep the idea updated as the market tips its hand. let's enjoy the ride.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by fedosam27
1
Tech Momentum: NAS100 Buying PotentialGreetings Traders, In today's trading session, our attention is directed towards NAS100 as we actively monitor a potential buying opportunity around the 16900 zone. The NASDAQ, emblematic of technological prowess, is currently navigating an uptrend, signaling a sustained upward trajectory. Simultaneously, the index is undergoing a correction phase, gradually converging towards the trend at the critical 16900 support and resistance area. This numerical level holds significance as both a historical support point and a pivotal juncture where the correction may intersect with substantial market forces. Our strategic approach for today involves a meticulous assessment of optimal entry points within the identified 16900 zone, aligning our trading decisions with the ongoing uptrend and the potential market dynamics at the crucial support and resistance area. As always, it's crucial to trade with caution and adhere to risk management strategies. Trade safe, Traders. Joe.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by JoeChampion
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 index exhibited continued strength by rising above our Completed Inner Index Rally 4713 with the violent retreat on Wednesday to this strategic price level. The main target is our central Key Res 4800 and Outer Index Rally 4807, completed on June 4th, 2022. However, some concerns about a market squeeze from the newly created Mean Res 4769 might cause a pullback to Mean Sup 4700. This level of support is considered a strong support level for the index and can allow traders and investors to make a suitable entry decision.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
2
S&P500: Holding the 4H MA50. Still bullish.The S&P500 index is now on a healthy green 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.835, MACD = 82.010, ADX = 81.214) following a much needed technical pullback yesterday that eased the previously overbought technical indicators. On the 4H timeframe, the index is still inside a two month Channel Up, which found support yesterday on the 4H MA50. As long as it holds, we will stay buyers until the end of the year, aiming at its top (TP = 4,850). If the price crossed under the 4H MA50, we will short aiming at the 4H MA100. If that is crossed as well, we will target the 4H MA200, which is close to the bottom of the Channel Up. It has to be said that the RSI has been inside a Channel Down, meaning that at some point, this bearish divergence will start a correction. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
NAS100 H4| Pullback support at 38.2% FiboNAS100 could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target. Entry: 16,475.30 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 16,184.30 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 16,891.90 Why we like it: There is a swing-high resistance level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:NAS100Long
by VantageMarkets
SPX500 H1 | Continuation of bullish momentumSPX500 is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 4742.34 which is an overlap support. Stop loss is at 4690.00 which is a level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and sits under a pullback support zone. Take profit is at 4820.40 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
FTSE 100 UK100 trade idea for 20/12/2023 BullishFTSE 100 UK100 trade idea for 20/12/2023 FTSE 100 is in upward channel on daily chart. It broke out of it 2 days ago but came down back inside the channel again. Tomorrow 20th Dec a major catalyst CPI data is released an hour before the market open. This surely will bring major volatility which gives the traders a good opportunity to grab some points if traded on the correct side. Key levels based on technical analysis for long trade: Entry: Ideally a dip to 7626 or 7604 Targets: 7665,7685,7724,7746 Support: 7584,7545 Thanks for reading, feedback welcome.
CAPITALCOM:UK100Long
by trikkone