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Commodity Outlook: Finding antivenoms in the Year of the SnakeWe are about a month into the Chinese Year of the Snake. The preceding Year of the Dragon (10 February 2024 to 28 January 2025) brought significant momentum to the asset class with broad commodities rising 10%, precious metals rising 36%, industrial metals rising 12%, and even energy and agriculture mustering a late gain (close to 2% each)1. However, the Year of the Snake presents several macro challenges for commodities. Renewed trade protectionism from the US, under the new Trump Administration, is likely to dampen global trade. Additionally, higher bond yields and a strong US dollar create further headwinds for the commodities market. China’s reticence to stimulate big is also holding back the asset class. Despite these headwinds, we have identified several micro factors that could provide support for certain commodities—what we refer to as our ‘antivenoms’. We remain optimistic about precious metals, aluminium, and European natural gas. Additionally, some of the macroeconomic challenges may ultimately prove less severe than initially anticipated, creating potential upside opportunities for commodities that currently reflect bearish sentiment. Strong US dollar The recent strength of the US dollar has historically correlated with weaker commodity prices. While this pattern has been inconsistent post-COVID-19, the dollar's resurgence could once again pressure commodities. Historical data suggests a strong dollar often aligns with declining commodity values. Trump’s trade policies and market impact Donald Trump’s return to the presidency introduces uncertainty into trade and commodity markets. Trump's first presidency saw a trade war with China and other nations, negatively impacting global trade and commodity prices. While extreme tariff measures have often been bargaining tactics, the risk of real implementation remains. In his second term, some tariffs were announced and then delayed; at the time of writing, we still have no real guide as to whether they will be implemented or when. This uncertainty is already dampening market sentiment and increasing long-term interest rates, further constraining commodities. Economic and inflationary concerns Tariffs could raise inflation in the US while simultaneously depressing global commodity prices due to reduced demand. This dynamic may complicate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to control inflation, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates. Climate policy reversals Trump has vowed to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and declared a “national energy emergency,” reversing climate regulations and boosting fossil fuel production. His administration is expected to cancel a $6 billion Department of Energy program aimed at industrial emissions reduction and repeal incentives for electric vehicles. These changes could suppress demand for critical materials used in clean technology, such as base metals. At the same time, deregulation of oil, gas, and mining operations may increase the supply of key commodities like copper, aluminium, nickel, and cobalt. Major projects, such as Rio Tinto’s copper mine in Arizona, could proceed after years of delays. While immediate production increases are unlikely in 2025, long-term supply growth is possible. Geopolitical risks and energy markets A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, brokered just before Trump's inauguration, has eased some geopolitical risk, though its stability remains uncertain. As we write, a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is being brokered by the US. Short-term oil price spikes are possible if sanctions are initially tightened to get parties to the negotiating table but, ultimately, we could see easing oil and gas prices if a deal is hashed out. The US has been pressuring Europe to purchase more American natural gas, but Russia’s LNG shipments to the EU remain significant. A resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war could weaken US leverage in energy negotiations, making Europe less dependent on American gas. Stricter enforcement of Iranian oil sanctions under Trump could drive oil prices higher. However, OPEC2 members may counteract this by increasing supply, potentially offsetting price gains. China’s economic strategy and commodity demand China remains the world’s largest consumer of commodities, yet its recent economic weakness has limited demand growth. Unlike previous economic cycles where China launched large stimulus measures, its current approach focuses on smaller, targeted interventions. The government has stabilised the real estate sector but remains wary of excessive stimulus due to debt concerns. China is investing heavily in clean technology and renewable energy infrastructure, supporting metal prices despite weak real estate demand. US tariffs on China could accelerate its push toward energy independence, promoting domestic adoption of solar, battery, and electric vehicle technologies. Trade tensions could escalate into retaliatory actions, such as China restricting exports of critical materials, as seen with gallium, germanium, and graphite in response to semiconductor disputes. Further restrictions could impact global supply chains for energy transition materials. China’s depreciating Yuan complicates economic policy. The People’s Bank of China has been intervening to stabilise the currency, limiting its ability to cut interest rates. While a policy shift to boost growth led to short-term market gains in 2024, further action remains constrained by currency pressures. Conclusion In the Year of the Snake, we are searching for antivenoms to counter the potential threats posed by trade wars, a strong US dollar, and a China that may be unable or unwilling to overcome its economic weakness. We see strong opportunities in gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc and European natural gas, as each of these has compelling drivers that could withstand broader headwinds in the commodity complex. As policies become clearer, we may find that our fears were overstated, potentially paving the way for a relief rally across the broader commodity complex. Until then, we place our confidence in these antivenoms.
CBOT:AW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Rockwell Automation | ROK | Long at $268.96Rockwell Automation NYSE:ROK appears to be gaining upward momentum once again. With two price gaps above (highest near $333+) and the historical simple moving average lines showing a positive change, this company could be poised to fill the gaps soon. A strong billion-dollar company with rising revenue, but stay cautious of the slightly high debt, insider selling, and changing economy / tariff implications. At $268.96, NYSE:ROK is in a personal buy-zone. Targets: $300.00 $333.00
NYSE:ROKLong
by WorthlessViews
Stanley Black & Decker | SWK | Long at $85.00Stanley Black and Decker NYSE:SWK breached my selected historical simple moving average and may likely be forming an upward channel into an overall positive reversal. It's "obeying" the simple moving average lines so far, with a nice bounce off the base at $85. Earnings and cash flow are expected to grow into 2026, but caution should be used if the economy slows further... It currently has a dividend yield of 3.74%. While I wouldn't be surprised if the price dipped to close out the price gap in the low $80s, NYSE:SWK is in a personal buy zone at $85.00. Target #1 = $100 Target #2 = $114 Target #3 = $125 Target #4 = $137
NYSE:SWKLong
by WorthlessViews
Caterpillar (CAT): Construction Strength Amid Industrial SlumpCharting Caterpillar can be challenging, given the complexity of its price structure, but it’s fascinating to see how well it respects Elliott wave theory and trend channels. Despite the difficulties, the adherence to these principles makes the analysis quite promising. The construction sector for Caterpillar remains robust, while the true growth catalyst is expected from a recovery in the mining industry, driven by demand from China and other regions. However, it’s not all positive: industrial activity in the U.S. has been sluggish, with the Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers' Index falling below 50 in 21 of the last 22 months—marking one of the worst streaks on record. This industrial downturn certainly adds pressure. On a higher time frame, there’s not much new to add. However, we are looking for Caterpillar to move higher to complete wave (3). As shown in the zoomed-in chart (the chart in the left frame), we can observe how accurately the price is moving within the trendline. The "best-case" scenario for us would involve a push above the channel, followed by a sell-off. If this happens, it will provide a clearer indication that a larger correction—wave (4)—is imminent.
NYSE:CAT
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
gold-silver-ratio As You can see an apex which showed bullish absorption was cutted the bearish style, to be tested if it will sustain strength. Now we see a rising wedge with shortening of time in the upper area and no shortening no expension of time at the lower boundaries. This leads to the conclusion, that gold is sold and silver is bought. Silver and copper are industrial metals. When they show strength vs. gold the markets are in an early stage of a big trend with a lot of bredth indicators moving to the upside soon.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by revilo1987
1
3M Position Trade✨ NEW: 3M...UT (3M, 3D) ✨ POSITION TRADE ✨ BLO1 @ 74.34 BLO2 @ 50.99 (Wealth Trade - I may never let this position go) TP1 @ 112.53 (shave 25% from BLO 1) TP2 @ 175.83 (shave 25% from BLO 1) TP3@ 215.82 (shave 25% from BLO 1) 3M Co. is a technology company that creates industrial, safety, and consumer products. They operate under different segments such as Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics, Health Care, and Consumer. Recently, the company has faced a major challenge involving around 260,000 pending lawsuits due to their military earplugs malfunctioning. The outcome of these legal proceedings could greatly impact 3M, either causing severe consequences or presenting a unique investment opportunity. Our team predicts that despite the uncertainty, institutions will likely intervene and purchase 3M's stock as it returns to its established pattern of gradual and steady growth, also known as the company's intrinsic or true value. However, it is important to acknowledge that the future outcome is still subject to change and could sway in either direction. Here is my strategy: I plan to sell 25% of my BLO1 holdings at every take profit point, while keeping the remaining amount for a long-term investment. However, I have no plans to sell any of my BLO2 holdings and will be holding them for the long term. This is commonly referred to as the "diamond hand strategy." Happy Trading‼️
NYSE:MMMLong
by CashFalcon
1
Texas Instruments (TXN) - Is the stock overvalued?About Texas Instruments Texas Instruments (TXN) is a technology company that designs and manufactures a wide range of products, including analog and embedded processing chips. The company operates in two segments, Analog and Embedded Processing, and its products are used in various applications, including automotive, communication infrastructure, industrial, and personal electronics. Strong financial performance in recent years In recent years, Texas Instruments has seen strong financial performance, driven by strong demand for its products and increasing demand for its embedded processing solutions. The company has consistently delivered revenue and earnings growth, driven by its broad portfolio of products and its ability to continuously innovate and bring new products to market. Is Texas Instruments (TXN) stock overvalued? From a technical perspective, the stock price of Texas Instruments has been in an uptrend since the beginning of 2020, and has outperformed the S&P 500 index over that time period. The stock price has consistently made higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong bullish sentiment. In addition, the stock has consistently traded above its 200-day moving average, which is often used as a measure of long-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the strength of a stock's price action. The RSI for Texas Instruments is currently in bullish territory, indicating that the stock is overbought and may be due for a pullback. However, the RSI can remain in overbought territory for an extended period of time, so it is important to consider other technical indicators when making a trading decision. One potential area of concern for the stock is its valuation. Texas Instruments currently trades at a premium to its historical valuation, which could indicate that the market is pricing in high expectations for future growth. In addition, the stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is higher than the industry average, which could make it vulnerable to a pullback if the company's earnings growth slows or if the market becomes more cautious. Conclusion In conclusion, Texas Instruments has demonstrated strong financial performance and technical strength in recent years. However, investors should be aware of the stock's elevated valuation and consider other factors, such as the company's earnings growth and the overall market sentiment, when making a trading decision. It is always recommended to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Disclaimer Norvestio AS only offers analysis based on analyst estimates and historical data, and our articles are never meant to be taken as financial advice. It doesn’t represent an advice to buy or sell any stock, and it doesn’t take into consideration your goals or financial position.
NASDAQ:TXN
by norvestio
Legrand (LR.pa) bearish scenario:The technical figure Channel Up can be found in the daily chart of the French company Legrand (LR.pa). Legrand is a French industrial group. It is one of the world leaders in electrical and digital building infrastructures and connected solutions. Legrand is established in 90 countries and its products are distributed in nearly 180. It generates 85% of its sales internationally. The group has expanded its product range in sustainable development and energy saving technologies, and has developed new products for EV charging/electric vehicles, lighting control and datacenters. The Channel Up broke through the support line on 23/12/2022. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 17 days towards 71.80 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 85.88 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Legrand, a world leader in electrical, digital infrastructure and connected solutions, has announced its acquisition of Encelium, an Ontario, Canada-based manufacturer of advanced commercial lighting controls. The acquisition of Encelium brand and products, which takes effect immediately, comes as part of Legrand's ongoing global strategy to further strengthen its position in the commercial lighting control sector. A leader in this category, Encelium is already an integral component within thousands of buildings, supporting the needs of occupants, tenants, and facilities managers through people-centric lighting and energy efficiency. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
EURONEXT:LRShort
by legacyFXofficial
DJI Short of the century v2Short term expanding wedge above larger expanding wedge. With high inflation data in US and possible interest rate rises, outlook and chart ripe for a short. Confirmation over next few days, depending on sell volumes/news/interest rates etc etc. DJI will likely retest and bounce/false breakout trend lines, be patient! Short term short: SL: 36670 Entry: ~36090 TP1: 35630 TP2: 34794 TP3: 33934 Long term short: SL: 33513 Entry: ~32868 TP1: 29620 TP2: 26187 TP3: 19588
TVC:DJIShort
by Cranka
3