BITCOIN Has Unfinished Business Below $74K! Will It Return?Key Disclaimer: Inefficiencies Don’t Need to Be Filled
Let’s set the stage clearly: inefficiencies like the one at $73,624.98–$74,420.69 for BTCUSD do not HAVE to be filled.
They’re a TENDENCY, not a rule, an intriguing opportunity to explore high-probability zones. If Bitcoin doesn’t return to this level, no harm is done; but this is a very good opportunity to analyze the term, as such... let’s break it down.
What Is an Inefficiency?
An inefficiency, or sometimes a fair value gap (FVG), is a price range with "minimal" trading activity, often caused by a rapid move—here, a rally—creating a liquidity imbalance. On the weekly BTCUSD chart, this area between wicks spans $73,624.98 to $74,420.69, likely formed during a sharp rally around April 2025.
This untested range makes it a potential target for future price action, as markets often seek to resolve such imbalances. Notably, the price has already approached this zone, and there’s a chance it may never return. However, around $74,400, there are still some “unfinished things to do”, untested liquidity, or orders, which could draw the price back if conditions align.
Why Do Inefficiencies Attract Price?
Inefficiencies often act as magnets for price due to:
Liquidity Seeking: Markets revisit areas with unfilled liquidity (stop-loss or pending orders) to balance supply and demand.
Market Memory: Traders and algorithms, target these levels, reinforcing their significance.
Mean Reversion: After rapid rallies, the price may retrace to test imbalances before continuing. (atm we are probably too far from it but still keep this area in your minds)
Institutional Activity: Large players might re-enter at these levels, making them key zones for reversals or consolidation.
Historically, assets tends to revisit such areas, as the chart notes.
BTCUSD Context: $103,000 with Bullish Momentum
As of May 10, 2025, BTCUSD is at ~$103,200 on the weekly chart, on the way to confirm a weekly breakout above $100,000, supported by higher highs, an ascending channel, and macro factors ( for example ETF inflows), signaling quite a strong momentum.
The inefficiency at $73,624.98–$74,420.69 is 28–29% below the current price, a deep pullback that might require a catalyst like a macro correction, negative crypto news, or profit-taking. Given the price has already approached this zone, it may not return, but the “unfinished business” around $74,400 keeps it on the radar. Still, strong trends can bypass inefficiencies, and factors like time decay or adoption may drive prices higher.
Trading Approach, Short-, Mid-Term Investors Take Your Profits!
This formation of inefficiency is not a prediction to short, it’s an opportunity to monitor.
Still, if you’re a short- to mid-term investor, it might be a smart move to take some profits here and observe what unfolds next.
Right now, we’re potentially seeing a double top forming around major psychological levels. And to be honest, the inefficiency below (shown on the chart) still lingers in the back of my mind.
People often ask me: “When is a good time to take profits?”
My answer? Now. It is a perfect example and it fits to all assets.
And here's why. There are clear scenarios that help remove the guesswork:
1. You sell now, and the price continues to rally higher.
That’s not a problem. By selling, you’ve reduced your risk, and securing your profits - always a smart move.
If the price breaks above $100K, you can always buy it back after a confirmed breakout and retest.
That’s a strong sign that investors are willing to pay higher prices for BTC, and historically, after such breakouts (like with the $50K level in August 2024), the market tends to come back to retest that breakout zone.
Of course, if you’re a long-term investor with a 3-5+ year horizon, you may choose to ride it out. In that case, trying to time this might just be over-managing your position. There’s always a chance BTC won’t retest $100K again.
2. The best-case scenario if you take profits now:
You get the chance to buy back lower.
If the market pulls back, keep that inefficiency level in mind—there’s also a mid-term trendline, previous yearly highs, and other technical elements that haven’t been tested yet.
Traders’ psychology hasn’t really been pushed to the limits at this stage, and in my view, the crypto market loves to test limits.
So if you’re a short- or mid-term investor who bought in at lower levels, this is a good time to seriously consider locking in some profits.
Step back, and let the price action guide the next move.
Listen—just listen.
Conclusion
Inefficiencies like the one between $73,624 and $74,420 don’t demand to be filled—but they’re worth understanding, tracking, and learning from. Whether price revisits that zone or not, the real value lies in recognizing where the market has moved too fast and what that might mean if momentum shifts.
Right now, BTCUSD is strong. But strength can fade, sentiment can shift, and “unfinished business” below still holds weight for traders who think in probabilities, not certainties.
If you’re in profit—especially from lower levels—this might be one of those moments to pause, and make sure greed isn’t driving your next decision.
Whether this zone becomes just a memory or a brilliant case study, it’s already a valuable example of how understanding market structure helps you stay a step ahead—not a step behind.
Stay alert. Stay humble. And as said… listen.
Cheers,
Vaido
