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XAG USD - found its feetHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to $20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance. With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Daily Chart: Weekly Chart Presents two scenarios; 1. Break and rested upon a break from the channel and formation on the daily. 2. A rejection of the channel, but a change of hands ever present upon the weekly imbalance zone XAG USD four Day [analysis originating from May 21st 2021. Weekly Chart The weekly chart is currently in the monthly zone or if a Fibonacci retracement pivot trader, this zone aligns the monthly 50% and 61.8% ratios whereby the bullish imbalance will takeover. While Gold does not have a clear rejection of the 61.8% low of $1680 zone, and again the 50% - where price is currently forming upon the $1766mark.* *note, the price as it is currently forming, will still experience wicks to the downside pressure upon a daily and weekly chart until the rejection zone has netted off with a lower timeframe imbalance. What does the Weekly Symmetrical triangle show? Based off how symmetrical triangles works both in a bearish and bullish capacity. However the difference here is that in this scenario - using probability upon how the candlesticks have displayed upon the chart, a bearish formation while not a text book definition, will normally print a closer lower high, lower high upon the downside lower weekly line forming the bottom of the structure, however a mechanism here the higher timeframe is offering here is a very heavy "resistance", or in a more technical approach, an imbalance between buyers, sellers and pivot points within the trading range. [ See chart below labelled 1 ] Using the higher lows the chart is producing, *the sentiment bias leans to bullish, however, adding positions will occur upon rejected levels as opposed to intra-day trades. Chart 1 Gold Daily Chart Monthly Gold Chart The imbalances are clear defined zones of where price has previously captured highs and lows and created imbalances upon buying or selling pressure - depending on the trading outlook. Formations whilst experiencing new data with no implied candlesticks either changing the landscape in which a top or bottom has not formed reverting to Fibonacci extensions and previous highs assist in establishing, along with patience upon printing new candles which guide the next move. Gold and Silver ratio XAG - Silver - in silver line formation XAU - Gold - Gold/yellow line formation The weekly chart shows here the steady 'Need' for both metals. The ratio of gold and silver looks to measures the number of ounces of silver required to purchase one ounce of gold. Whilst a measure which is not entirely causation upon large moves by Gold, it does provide investors hope to estimate the relative valuations between the two metals, informing to buy or sell at any given time. Monthly Ratio SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - Here comes a transition of changeHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis: Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. Further Evidence Looking to the volume profile added to where lies behind the chart candles, the volume data, which points to a selling opportunity whereby the highest peak of volume looks to the reaction point upon the entry zone surrounding 1.394XX showing the reactive level at this level which equates to 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Shows the clear jostle at a daily imbalance level. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. This stems back to the supply and demand factor from the relevant cross-pair analysis's where imbalances exist for each. . See the reference using the weekly chart against the EUR USD See further for an isolated chart Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
GBP AUD - New daily buys addedHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis's original Analysis below: How the trade is going since inception; Please note - three positions are held at any one time. Forward contracts, CFD and spot fx are used to mitigate risk and fee's. Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since The pathway Bullish scenario, combined with the bears using a weekly timeframe is below. Using the bullish scenario firstly - where the white candles represent the bullish scenario. The weekly imbalance covers a strong are where price has now left after consolidating for weeks and broke through. Price can now extend and revert back to 1.85XX, this will offer a strong opportunity to add positions here to get to the 2.XX+ target. The bearish scenario is inclusive - where price can revert back to 1.82 which is a strong pivot point, however this scenario probability is low, as price has now left this zone. Price can create a new zone at 1.85 as a Fibonacci zone. Volume profile Here is a weekly profile which shows the bullish nature outperforming the bears. Where the profile looks to the weekly the 1.82 had the reactive level which was of importance. Since then, has seen a stream of blue. meaning the bulls are in control. Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Previous scenario since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low. The current scenario The update has seen the weekly imbalances from the march low of 2020, where price had a strong inverse correlation between AUD USD, GBP AUD with the DXY spiking also. Now with a criteria regarding room to towards the imbalance, the monthly and weekly will offer the highly probable reactive levels. Keep on top of the pairs and specifically the S&P for a fundamental view which affects the AUD. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
USD CAD - 1.258 rejection as plannedHello, See below the previous analysis from a couple of days back; The key level here was 1.258X where the range of price will interact with the 0.382% Fibonacci, also a pivot point in the bullish structure; Where; 1. Price respects the imbalance upon the price reactive levels. 2. Price had offered a selling range from the reactive top of the structure and needed to find a key demand to offer a discount. Here is the idea. Weekly Chart Weekly Structure has offered a heavily discounted buy opportunity to take a new position or additional upon current longs. Refer to the volume chart to assist for volume traders - this shows the key driver for the change of hands which occurred at 1.21X zone. Monthly USOIL Refer to the correlation of the US OIL chart and compare USDCAD for inverse correlation. Attached are the key monthly and fibonacci zones intertwined. About me; Student of Lupacapitalpartners - imbalance analyst. Supplyanddemand trader Technical approach to charting Work in Investment banking, LDN - 3years in credit. Many thanks, XYHLX
Long
by XYHLX
AUD USD - Target reached! Now what?Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work June analysis: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. The Answer is yes to continue to hold further Yes it has and here is the proof, revert back to June 29th chart and hit replay. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
1
GBP USD - Sell active using probabilityHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. Using the Fibonacci based upon the market structure - price has completed the 1.618 extension target or if using the inverse method -0.618 target. Once the established high is deemed, the weekly structure is formed from the far left - showing the weekly sell candle rejecting the imbalance top closing out the previous high of the structure. The reversion back into the monthly zone offers a sell position to be placed capturing the move. Price had retested this zone again failing to extend the buying imbalance to create a second block. Instead, the lower high suggests price will continue to falter. Hence a higher sell probability. Cross-Pair analysis See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. This stems back to the supply and demand factor from the relevant cross-pair analysis's where imbalances exist for each. . See the reference using the weekly chart against the EUR USD Four Hour Chart See the four hour below; The pivot points are exactly on the same timeframe, just the fractal differs. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
XRP - New daily buying imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the previous idea here; Monthly Imbalances The three identified zones are in place to show where the major selling, buying positions are highly critical to imbalances, based upon the structure completing the pivot pattern and or Supply and demand scenarios. Within these structures, by now - it is important to identify knowing where in these reactive zones, buying is highly probable based upon the previous structure showing a rejection and or whipsaw effect on the monthly candle sticks. Zoom in to the weekly, daily on the previous structures to learn more where price has reacted and shown elements of the imbalance shifting from low probability scenarios to high probability. Weekly Imbalances Price had correctly rejected the 70.5% structure for a buying perspective which aligns with the in between of the selling targets of -0.27 and -0.618. The reason price didn't hit this zone as yet? The probability now looks low, but never exclude this as the price has previously fallen to $0.30-0.20 zone during the weekly and monthly imbalances. Price works best by reacting to strong levels so never overlook. Bullish weekly scenario - analysed April 26th - this has been a huge success! As mentioned above, the weekly imbalance held as the deciding factor with the market structures where the largest coins Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance accelerate the coins values to the upside along with the technical approach of buyers entering the market. Four Day Imbalances Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. The four day technical approach will be to first achieve $1.90 where the previous imbalance had created a highly probable sellers reactive zone. To extend the buying positional holds, this area would need to allow price to close within the imbalance and maintain a consolidation phase, which is a fractal pattern within the reactive zone. Daily The imbalance is clear where price can and has a highly probable likelihood of buyers looking to extend buys. This zone has offered an opportunity with a clear buying imbalance - however, this reactive zone will revert in the future if price fails to clear $1.90, meaning this will be where sellers will most likely initiate profit taking. Crypto correlation chart TRX USD - orange - - 96% correlation Dash USD - light blue - - 96% Sushi USD - Green - Sushi swap - 93% ETH USD - Purple - Ethereum - 81% Using the weekly chart - the highest correlated pairs with XRP have the main interest in purple; ETH, in terms of the dominance of the market cap and volume. The weekly correlation has seen all pairs to navigate smooth buying pressure towards the imbalances which lay waiting. Where a correctional move can take place, will be back to imbalances highly likely to be filled on the weekly and monthly timeframe, refer to ETH chart and analysis for further information. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD - Hold shorts in AugustHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work June analysis: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. 4 hour view - potential bearish continuation? Here we have a clear imbalance filled where price has touched the low and successfully rejecting as price closed out - confirming the imbalance. Now price has continued to sell off - looking for a low of the Fibonacci '0'' to be tested. From here price will look to continue and break the zone at the low structural four hour zone. Yes it has and here is the proof, revert back to June 29th chart and hit replay. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
US Oil August update with USD CADHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: December 15th 2020. Updated Idea: April 30th 2021 Understanding where we are now with the imbalances. Price has tested on the weekly the $67.00 high, which was a critical double top move allowing a correction to take place bringing price back towards $61.50. This established a weekly imbalance where April 19th 2021, the previous bearish wick offered a pricing pivot point. The Sellers had "netted" where the lowest point of the candle matched the fractal, allowing the market to create structural imbalance to add long positions. The engineered lows lured sellers and buyers to add aggressively. . The imbalances have netted off on the weekly to the monthly candle of February, March 2021. Now refer to the Monthly - price of the wicks low, closed at the monthly close two months previous - resting on top - meaning, the bullish movements are still in clear progression. Fibonacci & Daily Imbalance Combination Above the weekly imbalance block, price had surpassed and created the buying impulses, price needed to fill the wick as at 8th March 2021, and build upon the high probability of extending higher highs. Based upon the Fibonacci pattern, price established its peak "0" and once forming a -0.27 extension high, a correctional retest of the imbalance was required. This aligns with the Daily and weekly imbalance blocks. Volume Analysis The battle around the reactive zone is strong as the hidden battle under a monthly imbalance is a weekly imbalance, where movements create opportunities for price filling of monthly wicks. Price needed to revert from the monthly zone above $68--> to recapture correctional moves and stimulate the buying structure in place. Where confirmations were measure above, buyers were still in control. The range of buying and selling upon a weekly bullish candle cancelled out allows range traders and short term speculators to join in the liquidity. Note how the top of the volume range - bulls and bears back off, leaving the buyers to take over. USD CAD vs WTI Inverse correlation, but interesting relationship overall, as the Loonie weakens, the opportunity cost for buying from imbalances from the monthly offers the Dollar to gain traction towards the next zone. Price also offers the WTI as the Canadian Dollar weakens, pressure of the commodity to rise. The relationship between looks to the output of barrels. Use the link below to look at the US table and CAD table. US www.tradingview.com CAD www.tradingview.com Fundamental Fans Here is the current cross examination of the UK Oil Vs WTI using the weekly chart. Both are approaching a critical point in the respective price zones which both happen to be monthly imbalance zones. The correlations are gearing to a highly reactive point, so watch with caution. Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect. Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price. Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease. Producer Price Index This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden. The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line. Adding the inflation ETF into the mix, the commodity price is rising inline with both the UK oil and WTI - so again the rate of positive correlation here is showing highly probable further increments to long positions. See below for the weekly chart. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
BTC USD - Patience is a virtueHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading; Monthly Imbalances Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point. See what price could do; Price has a two option zone for Bitcoin - where price has a low of $5000 to 9k zone. This is a very large sell off but the Monthly imbalance before the buying imbalances created the heavy bullish structure. This also coincides with the -0.27% Fibonacci zone. The imbalance has to be filled - so where $179XX zone offers this closing out where the previous historical wick has yet to be tapped out, creating a cancelled out measure. This will then offer the high probability for price to create a buying opportunity as the reactive level is now becoming realised. Weekly Imbalances On the weekly - price has now created a mid zone where the low of $28,200 zone, price has tested this but created upon the monthly - an opportunity of this low saw multiple retests - this offers a high opportunity for price to assess the direction. Price has now created multiple indecisions and a 50% to $41,300 offering a $13000 est range. The upper zone between $64,7XX to $56,XXX has strong weekly selling. Reviewing the candlesticks shows a clear sell opportunity, but awaiting confirmations would be to see lower lows created and the retest of the candle. See below* *Here is the weekly Fibonacci which allowed price to fall to the current zone price is now experiencing. The next move? Here is the closing of the imbalance which needs to net zero - before the next move can be confirmed. Price which reacts with the next Eclipse or -0.27 will offer a further buy or sell. Overall, yes the market is in a bullish structure using the inception and three month chart, conversely price will always return to the imbalance - when? This is the question. BTC USD Bitcoin is still the overall leader within the movement of the Cryptocurrency world, and there is a large area of movement for price to close lower and lower into the territory where price will look to reverse at two options; 1. $18,000 2. Between the monthly imbalance zone at $5,500 The weekly has shown weekly progressively lower lows - which is, still showing opportunities to add longs. The reason for these ZOI or Zones of interest, are where price has created "breather" positions on the weekly. See below for the analysis to show that imbalances repeat themselves. The weekly has applications for lower lows, with a large amount of room to the imbalance to the downside. This is a fresh structural cycle - where price has and will move to this level. Bearish Fibonacci Extension Applying the Inverse Fibonacci to the downtrend to provide clarity of the target. BTC VS ETH USD As the two largest cryptos are both here and where the correlation of smaller alternative coins - the market is in "euphoria mode" but to prevent losing out. Paying attention to the critical levels highlighted below will assist. Where price breaks $2,000 on ETH "Rounded Psychological level", price will created a lower bearish channel formation - the opposite to See the capitalization of the two correlated pairs with respect to Ethereum Based Link. Key Bitcoin - BTC - Blue Ethereum - ETH - Purple Link - LNK - White See the secondary scale showing BTC price chart using the weekly to identify the zone to watch for. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
2
GBP NZD - reach a fresh zone, now we waitHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. March Analysis: Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working! Monthly imbalances Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent. The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart* * Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Volume Analysis Weekly View At the key zone of 0.382 the buyers had two weekly whipsaw events, but failed to capitalize on this. Also, second to this - the "0" had been tested so price now had established a range to gear up from the next pivot point. Cross Pair Analysis: Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. Absolute correlation pairs GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe. The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs. Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone. Absolute pairs current scenario Here are the current state of the weekly correlation between GBP AUD, EUR NZD, the imbalances are all moving in line with the imbalance levels. GBP AUD having the closest correlation with the cross pair base using GBP. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2