COVID: WINNING OR LOSING THE WAR?The chart shows cumulative cases in USA, GB and Germany.
Some don't like cumulative data. Case rates per day seem to matter more.
But in terms of understanding whether the war on COVID is being won, I say cumulative data is where the focus needs to be. Why?
Case rates per day or per week are the 'noise'. That rate will pick up fluctuations. Some people may get excited if there is a fall in rates over a few weeks. But short term rates do not give the big picture.
Cumulative figures over along period tell a different story. How they are interpreted is important. The actual figure at any one point is not that important.
It is the shape of the curve that matters more. How?
If a virus is dying out, one can expect there would be very little accumulation. We should see a clear flattening or perhaps only a very gentle rise.
If the virus died completely, the curve would flatten and remain flat because accumulation would be zero.
Of the big three GB (green) and USA(amber) have been taking on a sharper rise. It appears that the accumulation began around 1st December 2021 and that was realised near 25th December.
Obviously, Omicron was a new phase - piling on the accumulation.
Whilst the Omicron variant appears to have a lower case fatality rate than previous versions, what we're seeing in other data is how disruptive it is of health, other essential services, and transportation services.
Evolutionary theory will say that an organism mutates in the direction of an advantage that maximises its survival. Omicron has achieved that. It was not surprising. It's not in COVID's survival strategy, to become more 'killing' - simply because it needs more of its host to spread itself. What we don't need is a stronger big brother of Omicron.
Omicron (and Delta) are more serious risks to economies than death rates from infection.
Infection
COVID IN THE USA: REALITY IS A HARSH PLACETradingview has some amazing data on COVID. This chart is of importance for long term investment purposes (see fat disclaimer below).
Importantly this is about total of all cases infections and deaths. Some may say that's meaningless. But there are important features on the chart.
Say what you see! I'll say what I see.
If the war on COVID was being won, one would expect to see at least clear plateaus. That makes sense because it means there is no massive set of new cases to increase the total. I hope folk get the point.
Watch the red arrows.
1. On death total - it's accelerating. Certainly no plateau.
2. On case total - it's accelerating. No plateau.
Of course this does not mean that the numbers won't plateau. The point is that the trajectories and the power of the numbers means they're not winning the war.
A plateau would probably have been expected in the post-vaccination era. Some say, the plateau is coming soon. How would they know. Do they know the future better than everybody else?
All I know is what I see: There are no plateaus.
Do we stay with evidence or do we believe rhetoric repeated in lamestream media? Well, the choice is yours.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Singapore, improving COVID-19 statisticsChart of Singapore’s COVID-19 cases, since October predicted a rise in case numbers, which played out with a small spike in December. Posted in November about this idea.
From February onwards, the risk appears to decelerate and lower.
Slight indication of next smaller spike wave may be appearing... check in again in two weeks to see.
THIS MEANS TROUBLE!You don't need to be a scientist or epidemiologist to see what's going on here. The COVID pandemic is out of control.
These charts are limited because they show total infections - not rate of infections per day.
The exponential appearance of total infections is because of the summation of infections.
However, if a country is gaining some control over the virus then we could expect some flattening of the curve like with Australia. A flattening would mean they're not piling on loads of new infections.
Many parts of Europe, America and UK are in big trouble - but we're not hearing much about the economic impact of any of that. Why? Because everybody is focused on fiscal stimulus and hopes that a vaccine will cure economies.
Stock markets all over the world are looking past what rising infections mean for the future. Many countries are actually locking down but their stock markets are rocketing!
Driven by hope and greed, those who look past reality are courting delusion. The gap between fantasy and reality closes suddenly at times. I don't know when this is going to happen. I don't have a crystal ball.
WINNERS in battle against COVID-19In this sample of countries, China and New Zealand appear the most successful in fighting infection rates of COVID-19.
India and Brazil are still going exponentially north.
Do you believe lamestream media, or do you believe the data? The choice is yours.
China seems to be closest to developing a plateau, followed by NZ. I see the start of a second wave in the USA from around 14th June. Spot the slight increase acceleration in the curve for USA in green.
COVID-19 ATTACK, Fake news and the DJI (Wall Street)I present Tradingview data on COVID-19 infection rates and death rates in the USA - and compare those with the DJI (Wall Street).
Contrary to what we've been told by our leaders and mainstream media, there is no plateauing of infections or deaths in the USA.
NOBODY can say that the virus has peaked. The virus is charging north on exponential curves. Most of it's attack was in April 2020.
This bug is just getting started.
The chart shows the FED's QE infinity approach and how it has been failing.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile, and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
