JPY has had 180 next few years written over it for a while nowI wasn't going to post about this one as I imagine it's being covered by everyone what with the captain obvious setup on a basic horizontal but since I've covered the Yen before I may as well
I haven't re-visted this chart properly since I made some calls about that blue broadening wedge a few years back and the initial 152 resistance (see the related posts below) but one of these days in the not too distant future I will
The cyan channel that I spotted out when I looked at it last looks like it's the upper half of a bigger channel
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Inflation
THE KOG REPORT -CPIQuick update on the charts pre-event.
We'll keep it simple as for this, there is likely to be a lot of volume entering the markets on the release, and the movement can be extreme. A lot of traders are expecting this to pullback, and they may get the move, however, they could surprise everyone and continue this move to the upside before then bringing it down.
We have added our basic intra-day levels as well as the hots spots on the chart. We'll be looking for RIPs at the levels.
Immediate support stands at 2340 and below that 2320 which is our bias level, which if broken you can see where they can take the price. That's where we feel opportunities will present themselves to long the market.
Immediate resistance stands at 2380-5 and above that 2390-5, if broken, you can see where they can take the price before any attempt on the pullback short!
We'll stick with extreme levels, or, wait for the move to finish before we get involved. No need to throw ego's into calling the move this time as this one is an important one!
As always, trade safe.
KOG
lets talk about halving Take your time to readCRYPTO:BTCUSD This is not a trend analysis or signal of any kind just my own speculation about what may come to happen after the halving .
as we know the last cycle coincided with the fed cutting rates and the money printing going crazy like brrrrr .
although we can expect at least another round of rate cuts in 2024 nothing is really guaranteed this cycle .
we've been seeing consolidation in the BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart for the last couple months . now I'm not really bearish but what scares me is that last time we had the rate cuts then the halving kicked in and we gone from nearly 3k all the way to 64k before any major correction .
If a sell the news event was going to occur after the halving we could expect a few weeks to a couple months of downward selling pressure on bitcoin price before major upside gains .
I don't say such scenario will happen but it's better to be prepared incase of such event .
what i personally do is just have 50 percent of my capital ready to invest if the markets go down as the result of a black swan event because we do have the institutional support this cycle but at the same time after about 4 years of experience in the markets i know that brokers and institutions love to liquidate the retail before major moves .
So i think although the trend is bullish in the long term we might have extra volatility in the short term and it pays to be ready for any possible move .
thanks for your time.
use this information with due diligence.
Are Interest Rates going Higher?What would cause rates to move higher?
Inflation 2.0?
According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates.
If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future.
This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a 30 year bond bull market/ 30 year bear yield market.
Maybe the traditional 60 equity/40 bond gets toppled. Maybe we move to a 40 equity/60 bond portfolio.
If This rotation was to occur, the stock market would likely see a significant loss.
NZ dollar climbs ahead of RBNZ rate decisionThe New Zealand dollar has posted considerable gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6065, up 0.54% and its highest level since March 21.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets early on Wednesday and it’s practically a given that it will hold the cash rate at 5.5%. This would mark the sixth straight time that the RBNZ maintains rates and prolongs its “higher for longer stance”.
Investors will be interested in whether the RBNZ pushes back against market expectations of rate cuts – investors have priced in two cuts with a 70% probability of a third this year. The decision will not include updated economic forecasts or a news conference with Governor Orr, which could limit New Zealand dollar volatility around the meeting.
The markets are being aggressive in their pricing of rate cuts, mainly due to a weak economy, as GDP has contracted in four of the past five quarters. However, high inflation is a key reason why the RBNZ is hesitant to signal rate cuts are coming. In the fourth quarter, the inflation rate was 4.7%, well above the upper limit of the 1-3% target band. New Zealand releases first-quarter CPI next week, and the release will be a key factor in the central bank’s rate policy.
The RBNZ would prefer to have the Federal Reserve cut rates first, as this would boost the New Zealand dollar and weigh on inflation. The Fed has signaled rate cuts are coming but stronger than expected data, such as last week’s nonfarm payrolls, may lead the Fed to delay lowering rates.
NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6060. Above, there is resistance at 0.6107
0.6000 and 0.5953 are providing support
Where my 40k NKD target came from & why it could go higher laterI've been giving warnings ever since the c0v1d black swan, and especially since the 25k re-test, that Nikkei will grow wings but here's a seeing-is-believing look at where my 40k target comes from
For sure it could go higher later and break this key resistance but I would expect at least one more re-test of the navy blue channel beforehand
In theory there's no reason why a solid year can't be spent consolidating under that resistance a la 2006
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Must-know events for the trading week Must-know events for the trading week
The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data.
Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari revealed that he had anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. However, he noted that if inflation remains sluggish, no cuts may be necessary. This outcome would really surprise the market, which is mostly still expecting three cuts, starting in June.
Headline inflation is expected to rise for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is projected to decline to 3.7%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.
In Europe, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, where current interest rates are anticipated to be maintained. The likelihood of future rate cuts will be assessed by the market at the same time.
In Japan, investors will be monitoring potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be speaking during the week regarding the central bank's future steps.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ's latest forecast from February suggests that the OCR will remain steady until early to mid-2025, despite expressing increased confidence based on recent data.
YM ran to 40k without any resistance just like I said it wouldI've been saying for some time now that Dow Jones has _no_ relevant resistance till 40k and now here we are
If that resistance fades quickly then the next relevant resistance is at 45k and probably most retailers will come up with excuses to short it the whole way there also
"But how did you come up with that number?"
See for yourself heh this is a very clear cut chart at such high timeframes not too dissimilar to BTC and XAU
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
BTC half way through the cycle likely heading for at least 140kI've posted a BTC chart here last cycle, showing the weekly and monthly RSI cheat-sheet of where to buy and sell, and I trust it served many well (see the related idea below)
The key to anticipating cycle targets ahead of time is the adoption curve, which is actually a straight line on a chart with log on both axes, but without log on the date axis (unsupported by TradingView sadly) one may plot points and retrofit curves into that as shown
So far Bitcoin's price action has been oriented around "lay-line" diagonals similar to Gold (see my recent XAU chart) but the main difference is that the sectors on BTCUSD are now beginning to fractionalise owe to diminishing adoption curve returns
At the bottom is my custom relative volume indicator which shows relative volume in a Bollinger Band sigma measurement fashion split down into a buy-to-sell ratio depending on the composition of the candle (this is the Bitstamp chart but a summation chart produces the exact same consistent capitulation flags)
At some point I may list my RSI candles and RVB histogram as premium indicators here on TradingView since their tried-and-tested benefits are not to be underestimated as can be seen very clearly here
The current blue bull cycle channel I called over a year ago before the support was even touched and I was able to do that because I recognised the angle of the resistance last Easter and extrapolated a projection from the last cycle (it's copy pasta of the same channel as last cycle basically)
It has not moved since
I was also able to call the 70k local top a month ago because I'm well aware that for whatever reason the numbers 7 & 14 are significant on the Bitcoin chart and that's why I also expect that this cycle will likely black swan past 140k briefly up to about 200k similar to how it shot to 20k past 14k seven years ago
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Short term yields still weak, longer term reversedWhat a difference 11 hours makes.
The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening.
10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent.
This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT.
TVC:TNX
Interest Rates NOT showing cuts...Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do.
The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though.
10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone.
30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment.
#FederalReserve TVC:TNX
Japanese yen flirting with 152The euro is showing little movement on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0777, up 0.05%.
Inflation in the eurozone continues to decline. March CPI eased to 2.4% y/y, down from 2.6% in February and below of the market estimate of 2.6%. This matched November’s 28-month low and was driven by the continued slowdown in food inflation. Monthly, CPI rose to 0.8%, up from 0.6% but below the forecast of 0.9%.
Core CPI also declined, with a reading of 2.9% y/y. This was below the February gain of 3.1% and just shy of the market estimate of 3.0%. Core CPI, which is considered more significant than the headline release, has declined for an eighth straight month and dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. Germany’s inflation report, which was released yesterday, also indicated that inflation dropped in March, with headline CPI easing to 2.2% and core CPI to 3.3%.
The drop in inflation is encouraging news for the ECB, which meets next week. The central bank must balance weak economic activity, which would support another pause, against falling inflation, which would support calls to lower rates.
The ECB is likely to maintain rates next week but there is a strong probability that it will press the rate-cut trigger at the June meeting. The ECB may want to prepare the markets for a shift in monetary policy and we could see some dovish signals at next week’s meeting, which might weigh on the euro.
In the US, today’s ADP employment report kicks off a host of employment releases, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The ADP report isn’t considered a reliable precursor to NFP, but investors are interested in any labour reports they can analyse ahead of the NFP release. ADP came in at 140,000 in February and is expected to rise slightly to 148,000 in March.
EUR/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.0753. Below, there is support at 1.0712
1.0808 and 1.0849 are the next resistance lines
XAG gearing up to take over the lead charge of the XAU breakoutThis was supposed to be tomorrow's post but since it looks as if the breakout could be underway as I'm typing I'm going to make it right now
I'm annoyingly accurate and can see things in the market that nobody else can so at this point if you aren't following me here you basically hate money
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
XAU ready to break out now that most goldbugs have lost interestI haven't posted on TV since Dec 2022 as I've been posting elsewhere (check my profile) but I'll begin duplicating some of my calls here and continue if I gather a decent audience here
I'm annoyingly accurate and can see things in the market that nobody else can so at this point if you aren't following me here you basically hate money
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Pound stabilizes as shop inflation dropsThe British pound is steady on Tuesday after starting the week with losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2563, up 0.09%. On Monday, the pound fell 0.57% and dropped as low as 1.2539, its lowest level since February 14.
Inflation in UK stores fell to 1.3% y/y in March, according the British Retail Consortium (BRC). This was below the 2.5% rise in February and the market estimate of 2.2% and was the lowest level since December 2021. The BRC also reported that food price inflation fell to 3.7% y/y in March, its lowest level since April 2022. This was the 10th straight month that food prices inflation has decelerated.
The data points to headline inflation continuing to fall and has raised expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of England. The markets have priced in a quarter-point cut in June at 62%, with an outside chance of an initial quarter-point cut in May. The BoE has stuck to its script of “higher for longer”, maintaining rates at 5.25% for five straight times, but the March meeting signaled a possible shift in policy.
Governor Bailey said at the March meeting that the UK was “on the way” to winning the battle against inflation but signaled that rate cuts could be on the way. As well, eight MPC members voted to pause and one voted to lower rates at the March meeting, while at the previous meeting, two members voted in favor of a rate hike. The UK releases the March inflation report on April 16th and this release will likely have a significant impact on the BoE’s rate path.
GBP/USD Technical
GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2605. Below, there is support at 1.2552
There is resistance at 1.2704 and 1.2757
Buy Buy! Ultra-bull Niocorp DevelopmentsI have been following this stock for some time, and it is getting better and better. their long standing goals, producing commercial, industrial-grade niobium, scandium products are coming to fruitition. This includes securing the finances to embark on the endeaver (unofficial).
In the mining scene we have to be wary off the juristiction/country the mine is located in. it could get seized, laws could get passed that could dampen revenue or export be banned. But this is the opposite . It is located in Nebraska, U.S. and has tremendous political support . Niocorp Investor Presentation
Target is AT LEAST 25. This stock is very resiliant against war, and will actually benefit from it. more supply chain issues abroad , inflation, demand to name a few. I like the price right now, but could surely fall further.
We are near the support zone around 5.3, next is 4.7 zone then 3.9 zone. bargain zone: 2.6 - 2
Strategy: DCA
GL
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
According to the Daily Chart Analysis for the week of March 22, the Eurodollar has successfully completed a Squeeze Currency Dip of 1.078, which was the primary target. Consequently, this momentum is projected to generate further selling pressure, leading to a decline to the Mean Support level 1.070. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is anticipated to hit an Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, it is essential to note that a potential intermediary rebound may occur, which could result in a move to a target of 1.084.
Tokyo Inflation to trigger yen Intervention? But at what price?Recent remarks made by Masato Kanda, Japan's vice-finance minister for international affairs, have led to heightened cautiousness regarding potential actions by authorities to support the yen through intervention.
The USD/JPY has comfortably surpassed the 150.000 threshold, which historically has prompting interventions by the Bank of Japan to limit the weakness in the yen. This precedent was observed in 2022 when the currency reached 151.950 against the US dollar.
But have the intervention goal posts moved?
Maybe only slightly. Credit Agricole’s FAST FX model suggests a selling strategy for USD/JPY if it crosses 152.20.
Anticipated inflation data for Tokyo, scheduled for release later this week, could serve as a potential trigger for intervention. A higher-than-expected reading may positively impact the JPY, indicating bullish sentiment and potentially help the BoJ avoid the need to intervene. Conversely, a lower-than-anticipated figure could exert a bearish influence on the JPY.
USD/JPY shrugs after BoJ core inflation dipsThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.36, down 0.03%.
Bank of Japan core inflation fell to 2.3% in February, down from 2.6% in January and shy of the market estimate of 2.5%. The release further complicates the inflation picture in Japan, as we continue to see inflation indicators heading in all directions. The BoJ core inflation index eased in February ,while the services producer price index climbed 2.1%, unchanged from January.
The BoJ made a massive pivot last week as it raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. The central bank is counting on rising service inflation replacing cost-push inflation as the main driver of inflation, which it expects will make inflation sustainable around the 2% target.
The shift in monetary policy has not translated into a win for the yen, which is above the 151 line. There is the threat of currency intervention, as Tokyo intervened last September and October when USD/JPY rose above 152. Japanese officials are trying to jawbone the yen higher before resorting to intervention, with Japan’s top currency diplomat sending a warning on Monday to speculators from trying to sell of the yen, saying the currency’s recent slide did not reflect fundamentals.
In the US, it was a mixed day. Durable goods recovered in February with a gain of 1.4% m/m in February. This followed a 6.9% slide in January and beat the market estimate of 1.1%. The Conference Board consumer confidence index was almost unchanged at 104.7 in February, compared to 104.8 a month earlier. This was shy of the market estimate of 107.
USD/JPY tested support earlier at 151.35. Below, there is support at 151.13
151.64 and 151.86 are the next resistance lines
$JPIRYY -CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY Japan Inflation Rate Lowest in A Year
The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 3.0% in September 2023 from 3.2% in August, pointing to the lowest reading since September 2022.
Meantime, core inflation rate dropped to a 13-month low of 2.8%,
slightly above market consensus of 2.7% while staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 18th month.
Core inflation rate dropped to a 13-month low of 2.8%, slightly above consensus of 2.7% while staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 18th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3% in September, after a 0.2% gain in August. source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
source:
Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
How does inflation affect the stock market?The world’s financial environment has become incredibly tangled and multifaceted. The global availability of information to investors, particularly in rural areas, thanks to the internet, has caused investor sentiment to shift from an emotional response to an analysis and data-driven one.
Inflation serves as a prime example of this. In the past, most individuals viewed inflation as an indication of an unhealthy economy.
However, in the present day, investors have become more knowledgeable about economic cycles and are capable of making sound investment decisions at each stage of a country’s economy.
Therefore, today, we will discuss inflation in general and evaluate its influence on the stock markets in India. Let’s start with a topic on How does inflation affect the stock market.
What is Inflation?
In simple words, inflation refers to the gradual increase in the prices of goods and services. As the inflation rate rises, so does the cost of living, resulting in a decrease in purchasing power.
As an example, suppose bananas were priced at Rs.100 per kilo in 2010. In an inflationary economy, the cost of bananas would have increased by 2020.
Let’s assume that the price of a Banana is now Rs.200 per kilo in 2020. Thus, in 2010, with Rs.1000, you could buy 10kg of Banana.
However, in 2020, due to the decrease in purchasing power caused by inflation, you would only be able to buy 5kg of Bananas for the same amount.
To understand inflation in detail, let’s have a look at what is the reason behind inflation. So, there are two major factors behind an increase in the rate of inflation in the economy.
1) Demand > Supply
One reason for an increase in the inflation rate is when the average income of individuals in an economy rises, and they want to purchase more goods and services.
During such times, the demand for these products and services can exceed their supply, resulting in a scarcity of these goods and services. Consequently, buyers are willing to pay more for them, which leads to a general increase in prices.
2) Increase in the cost of production
Another reason for an increase in the inflation rate is when the cost of production of goods and services increases due to an increase in the costs of raw materials, labour, taxes, etc.
While this leads to an increase in the cost of production, it also causes a decrease in the supply of these goods and services. With the demand remaining constant, the prices tend to increase.
Inflation and the Indian Stock Markets:
The price of a share in the stock markets is determined by the interplay of demand and supply, which is influenced by a variety of factors, including social, political, economic, cultural, and so on.
Anything that affects investors can have an impact on the demand and supply of stocks, and inflation is no exception. Here is a brief overview of the impact of inflation on stock markets:
1. The Purchasing Power of Investors
Inflation, by definition, is a rise in the prices of goods and services, and it is also an indicator of the diminishing value of money.
Therefore, if the inflation rate is 5%, then Rs.10, 000 today will be worth Rs.9, 500 after one year. If the inflation rate increases to 10%, then the same amount will be worth even less in the future.
So, as the inflation rate increases, the purchasing power of investors decreases. This decrease in purchasing power can directly impact the stock market since investors would be able to purchase fewer stocks for the same amount.
2. Interest Rates
When the inflation rate rises, the Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) often increases interest rates for deposits and loans. This move is intended to encourage people to save money and limit excess liquidity, thereby reducing the inflation rate.
However, as loans become more expensive, the cost of capital for companies also increases. Consequently, the projected cash flows of companies are valued lower, which can lead to lower equity valuations.
3. Impact on Stocks
As the increase in the inflation rate, speculation about the future prices of goods and services can create a highly volatile market environment. Since prices are rising, many investors may speculate that companies will experience a drop in profitability. As a result, some investors might decide to sell their shares, leading to a drop in their market price.
However, other investors who remain optimistic about the company’s future profitability may continue to buy these stocks, which can create a volatile environment in the stock market.
Value stocks tend to perform well during times of inflation because they are often more established companies with stable earnings and a history of paying dividends, making them more attractive to investors seeking steady returns. In contrast, growth stocks are often newer companies with higher potential for future earnings, but they may not have established cash flows to support their valuations.
When inflation rises, investors may become more risk-averse and prioritize stable, predictable returns over potential growth, leading to a decline in demand for growth stocks and a corresponding drop in their market prices.
4. Long-term benefits of increasing inflation rates on stock markets
A certain level of inflation is required for an economy to grow, as it encourages spending and investment. A moderate and controlled rise in inflation rates can lead to an increase in the income of the people and help in boosting the economy.
However, if the inflation rate goes beyond a certain limit, it can have a negative impact on the economy. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain a balance between inflation and economic growth.
Conclusion:
Investors should analyse the trend of inflation rates in recent years before making any investment decisions. Sudden spikes in inflation rates may cause uncertainty and volatility in the stock markets, while a gradual and steady rise in inflation rates can provide a conducive environment for businesses to grow and expand, leading to higher stock valuations. Additionally, investors should consider investing in sectors that perform well in an inflationary environment, such as energy, commodities, and real estate.
___________________________
💻📞☎️ always do your research.
💌📫📃 If you have any questions, you can write me in the comments below, and I will answer them.
📊📌❤️And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Fed keeps rates steady, Banxico up next The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% while continuing its balance sheet reduction as planned since May 2023.
In contrast, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) might announce a rate cut tomorrow.
It's anticipated that Banxico could decrease its interest rate from 11.25% to 11%, potentially applying pressure on the Mexican peso. This could drive the USD/MXN rate closer to the 17.00 mark, diverging further from its 10-year low. Some Fib levels from its recent swing higher could also be some interesting, more assessable, targets
However, the possibility of a rate cut from Banxico is not guaranteed, given potential divisions within its Governing Council. Recent speeches by officials indicate a 3-2 split, with some members leaning towards a more accommodative approach, while others like Jonathan Heath and Irene Espinosa Cantellano favor a hawkish stance.