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Inflation

Core and Headline CPI (Release Tomorrow Thurs 11th Jan 2024)Core and Headline CPI NEW CPI Figures released tomorrow Thursday 11th Jan 2024 @ 7:30am Central (for the December 2023 month) U.S. Headline CPI Prev: 3.1% Exp: 3.2% Rep: TBC Tomorrow U.S. Core CPI Prev: 4.0% Exp: 3.8% Rep: TBC Tomorrow Will the US Core CPI finally fall below 4% for the first time since May 2021? Core vs Headline (the difference) You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line. The Feds 2% Target It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first. You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%. I’ll update you tomorrow with the released figures PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
Australian dollar falls despite solid retail salesThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6685, down 0.51%. Australia's retail sales sparkled in November but the strong rebound wasn't reflected in the Australian dollar. Retail sales climbed 2.0% m/m in November, blowing past the estimate of 1.2% and recovering from a revised 0.4% decline in October. This was the highest reading since November 2021 as consumers came out and took advantage of Black Friday sales in late November. The boost in November sales could come at the expense of December sales, however, as consumers may have brought forward their Christmas shopping. Consumer confidence has improved on expectations that interest rates have peaked. Last week's ANZ consumer confidence index indicated that consumer confidence was at its highest level in a year and homeowners are also feeling optimistic as house prices have been rising. Australia will release the November inflation report on Wednesday, with expectations that inflation fell to 4.4%, down from 4.9% in October. The markets have priced in the first RBA rate cut in June but that could be brought forward if inflation falls below the estimate. The US will release the December inflation report on Wednesday as well, which could mean a volatile day for the Australian dollar. With the Federal Reserve on board for rate cuts this year, Fedspeak is being carefully monitored as investors search for hints as to the timing of a first rate cut. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut in March, but had to trim the odds after Friday's nonfarm payroll report was stronger than expected. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said on Monday that he was comfortable with a restrictive stance while inflation continues to move down toward the 2% target. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6732 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6824 There is support at 0.6625 and 0.6533
by OANDA
$US100 Another Bulls rally ends the sell off? This Friday we met the 0.5 Fib retracement level from the last breakout. Wall street snapped on its 9 week winning streak. Mixed with both fear and hope to number of expected rate cuts in the current year of 2024, recent commodities price had shown re-incarnation followed by increasing tension in regions including Mid-east, Korea, and Ukraina. Major AI stocks that carried the market throughout 2023 had cooled off a bit during the first week of Jan. But, is this really the end? All eyes are on the US inflation data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outloook. Forecasts suggest consumer prices likely edged up by 0.2%. We could assume the service sector laid off number of their employees to maintain their high-productivity rate continue from last year. With this expectation, 6 rate cuts may seem naive option to blindly follow. Although, I expect market to move up for the first three days just because of the false hope of dovish fed speech planned for this Thursday.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Kim_CLSPX
Top 7 inflation-induced trading opportunities this weekThis week, the focus of many traders will be on US inflation data, which will provide valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. The forecasts indicate a potential 0.2% increase in both headline inflation for December and the core rate. On an annual basis, the headline inflation rate is anticipated to rebound to 3.2% from November's five-month low of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core rate is likely to ease to 3.9%, the lowest since May 2021. This crucial data will be released on Thursday. In the midst of the US inflation focus, there are noteworthy inflation data releases from other countries, including Switzerland, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, and Russia. This diverse set of data presents many potential trading opportunities for USD pairs throughout the week: Monday: Switzerland Inflation Rate Tuesday: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator Tuesday: Mexico Inflation Rate Thursday: Brazil Inflation Rate (before US inflation data) Thursday: China Inflation Rate (after US inflation data) Friday: India Inflation Rate Friday: Russia Inflation Rate
by BlackBull_Markets
As Inflation Retreats, How Will Equities Perform in 2024?During the 1990s and again in the 2010s, equity and bond investors celebrated a goldilocks economy. GDP and employment growth were solid and core inflation remained comfortably around 2% per year despite increasingly tight labor markets. That scenario was occasionally interrupted, notably by the tech wreck recession in 2001, the 2008 global financial crisis, and most recently by the pandemic-era surge in inflation. But by late 2023, inflation appeared to be coming down globally. Comparing the annualized inflation rates during the six months from December 2022 to May 2023, and the six months from June to November 2023, inflation rates have fallen sharply in every major economy (Figure 1). Figure 1: Core inflation rates are falling rapidly worldwide Source: Bloomberg Professional (CPI XYOY, CACPTYOY, UKHCA9IC, CPIEXEMUY, JPCNEFEY, ACPMXVLY, NOCPULLY, CPEXSEYY, SZEXIYOY, NZCPIYOY) Granted, things still don’t feel great for consumers, who appear to be less sensitive to the rate of change in prices than they are to level of prices which remain high and are still climbing, albeit at a slower pace than before. Nevertheless, it appears that the main drivers of inflation -- supply chain disruptions (Figure 2) and surging government spending (Figure 3) -- subsided long ago. Supply chain disruptions sent the prices of manufactured goods soaring beginning in late 2020. Depressed pandemic-era services prices initially masked the surge in inflation, but services prices began soaring as the world reopened in 2021 and 2022 driven by surging government spending, which created new demand but no new supply of goods and services. Since then, however, supply chain disruptions have faded despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and with little impact thus far from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Moreover, government spending has rapidly contracted as pandemic-era support programs have expired despite some increases in spending related to infrastructure and the military. As such, not even the low levels of unemployment prevailing in Europe, U.S. and elsewhere appear to be sustaining the rates of inflation witnessed in 2021 and 2022. Figure 2: Supply chain disruptions drove inflation in manufactured goods in 2020 and 2021. Source: Bloomberg Professional (WCIDLASH and WDCISHLA) Figure 3: U.S. government spending has fallen from 35% to 22.6% of GDP Source: Bloomberg Professional (FFSTCORP, FFSTIND, FFSTEMPL, FFSTEXC, FFSTEST, FFSTCUST, FFSTOTHR, GDP CUR$, FDSSD), CME Group Economic Research Calculations U.S. core CPI is still running at 4% year on year but its annualized pace slowed to 2.9%. What’s more is that in the U.S. most of the increase in CPI has come from one component: owners’ equivalent rent, which imputes a rent that homeowners theoretically pay themselves based off actual rents on nearby properties. Outside of owners’ equivalent rent, inflation in the U.S. is back to 2%, its pre-pandemic norm (Figure 4). Figure 4: U.S. inflation is much lower when excluding home rental Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg Professional (CPI YoY and CPI XYOY) Moreover, inflation in China has been running close to zero in recent months and has sometimes even shown year-on-year declines. In China, real estate grew to be as much as 28% of GDP, and the sector is now rapidly contracting. China’s year-on-year pace of growth for 2023 looks solid at around 5%, but that’s not too impressive given than the year-on-year growth rate compares to 2022, when the country spent much of the year in COVID lockdowns. By the end of 2023, China’s manufacturing and services sectors were both in a mild contraction, according to the country’s purchasing manager index data. If growth doesn’t improve in 2024, China may export deflationary pressures to the rest of the world. That doesn’t mean that the are no upward risks to prices. If the Israel-Hamas war broadens and interrupts oil supplies through the Suez Canal, that could reignite inflation. Moreover, green infrastructure spending, rising military spending, near-shoring as well as demographic trends in places like South Korea, Japan, China and Europe that limit the number of new entrants in the global labor market could potentially keep upward pressure on inflation. For the moment, however, any inflationary impacts from geopolitical or demographic factors appear to be overwhelmed by the usual set of factors keeping inflation contained including technological advancement and large labor cost differentials among nations. So, what does this mean for investors? As we begin 2024, fixed income investors are pricing about 200 basis points (bps) of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next 24 months, and the S&P 500 is trading close to a record high. Be warned, however, interest rate expectations have been extremely volatile over the past 12 months, oscillating between expecting rate hikes to rate cuts by as many as 200 bps or more (Figure 5). If we continue to see strong employment and consumer spending numbers combined with weakening inflation numbers, this may keep rate expectations caught in a volatile crosscurrent. Figure 5: Investors price steep Fed cuts but rate expectations are extremely volatile Source: Bloomberg Professional (FDTRMID, FFZ15...FFZ25), CME Economic Research Calculations Moreover, while equities did well in 2023, their rally was narrow, driven by only a handful of large tech and consumer discretionary stocks, while most other stocks including small caps were largely left behind. Finally, the stock market itself isn’t cheap. The S&P 500 is trading at 23.37x earnings and the Nasdaq 100 at 59x earnings. As a percentage of GDP, the S&P 500’s market is still close to historic highs. Finally, even with 2023’s rally, the indexes are trading at basically the same levels at which they ended 2021 (Figure 6). Part of the reason stocks did so well in the 1990s and 2010s is that they started out those decades cheap. The same cannot be said of the starting values for 2024 (Figure 7). Figure 6: Nasdaq and S&P 500 are near end of 2021 levels but the Russell 2000 lags behind Source: Bloomberg Professional (SPX, NDX and RTY) Figure 7: Going into 2024, equities aren’t cheap like they were in 1994 or 2014 Source: Bloomberg Professional (SPX, GDP CUR$, USGG10YR). If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
EUR/USD slips, Eurozone inflation risesThe euro is in negative territory on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0908, down 0.33%. Eurozone inflation has been falling and dropped to 2.4% y/y in November, within striking distance of the 2% target. The downward trend reversed itself in December, as CPI jumped to 2.9%, just below the consensus estimate of 3.0%. This was the first uptick in inflation since April. There was better news from Core CPI, which dropped to 3.4% y/y, matching the consensus estimate and down from 3.6% in November. This marked the lowest level for the core rate since March 2022. The eurozone inflation report should not have come as a surprise, as Germany, the bellwether of the eurozone, posted similar numbers earlier this week. German CPI rose to 3.7% y/y, up from 3.2%, while the core rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%. I don't expect the European Central Bank to lose much sleep over a spike in one inflation report but policy makers will be on the alert for inflation continuing to rise. The drop in Core CPI is an encouraging sign, as the core rate is considered a more accurate gauge of inflation trends than the headline release. All eyes will be on the US payrolls release later today. The consensus for the December report stands at 199,000, up from 170,000 in November. The markets will be keeping an eye on wage growth, which is projected to ease to 3.9% y/y, compared to 4.0% in October. This would mark the lowest annual gain since mid-2021. The Fed would like to see wage growth decline as it is a driver of inflation. Fed policymakers will be pleased if the releases are within expectations, as it would indicate that the labour market remains solid but is slowly cooling. The US will also release the ISM Services PMI for December. The services sector has expanded for 11 straight months and is expected at 52.7 for December, little changed from 52.6 a month earlier. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0944. Below, there is support at 1.0917 1.0974 and 1.1001 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD stabilizes after slide, FOMC minutes loomThe euro has steadied on Wednesday after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0932, down 0.08% and its lowest level since December 21. The US dollar has been struggling in recent weeks but came flying out of the gates on Tuesday, the first trading day of the New Year. The euro fell 0.88% against the dollar, its worst one-day showing since October. The dollar's spike could be due to profit-taking as the data calendar was light on Tuesday and the dollar gained ground against all of the major currencies. It's a busy day for US releases after a lull during the week of Christmas. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 47.1 for December, compared to 46.7 in November. The manufacturing sector has been in a miserable slump and hasn't shown expansion since October 2022. Manufacturers have been squeezed by weak demand abroad and high borrowing costs. With the Fed expected to start cutting rates in March, we could see manufacturing respond with increased business activity. The Federal Reserve releases the FOMC meeting of the December meeting later today. The meeting was highly significant as the Fed surprised the markets by failing to push back against rate-cut fever. The Fed signalled that it expected to trim rates three times in 2024, a major pivot from the well-worn script of 'higher for longer'. Investors will be looking for details about the shift in Fed policy which has boosted the equity markets and weighed on the US dollar. Germany and the eurozone will post the December inflation reports on Thursday. Last week, Spain posted lower-than-expected inflation numbers. Inflation has eased to 3.2% in Germany and 2.4% in the eurozone, as the ECB's target of 2% is getting closer. Will the December numbers show inflation continues to fall? If so, the European Central Bank will be under pressure to lower rates. ECB President Lagarde has so far dismissed talk of rate cuts, but she may need to shift her hawkish stance if inflation continues to fall, as the eurozone economy is struggling and could use some relief in the form of rate cuts. There is resistance at 1.1069 and 1.1102 1.0958 and 1.0887 are the next support lines
by OANDA
US Equities 2024 OutlookCME: E-Mini S&P ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), E-Mini Nasdaq ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) Stock investors around the world had a banner year in 2023. Of the ten major stock market indexes I monitor, eight delivered solid 1-year returns. • North America: S&P 500, +23.9%; Nasdaq Composite, +53.6%; • South America: Bovespa (Brazil), +22.3%; • Europe: FTSE (UK), +3.0%; Stoxx (Germany), +11.3%; • Asia: Nikkei (Japan), +28.2%; Kospi (Korea), +18.7%; Nifty (India), +19.5%; • China: SSE (Shanghai), -3.2%; Hang Seng (HK), -13.7%. In this second installment of new year outlook for major asset classes, I will discuss what opportunities may lay ahead for US stocks. Subsequent writings will cover Energy, Agricultural commodities, Interest Rates, Forex, and Cryptocurrencies. FYI: The last writing was a year-end review for metal commodities – Gold, Copper, and Aluminum. If you haven’t read it yet, you may follow the link here: Record Gains Built from Lower Baselines While all four major US stock indexes booked double-digit returns in 2023, they each experienced a steep loss in 2022. The combined 2022-2023 returns aren’t so impressive. • Dow Jones: +5.3% • S&P 500: +3.3% • Nasdaq 100: +9.3% • Russell 2000: -5.9% You may think that adding the 2022 return of -18.1 and 2023 return of 23.9% will give the S&P a 2-year return of +5.8%. But the actual return is only +3.3%. Why? Simple Math: If you lose 20% first, you will need to gain 25% to make up for the loss and just get back to square one. Mathematically, 1/0.8 = 1.25, or (1-20%) * (1+25%) = 1. This matters a lot to hedge funds. An active manager may have a 2-20 arrangement with his investors, which is 2% fee on asset-under-management, and 20% on carry interest. If a fund closely tracks the Nasdaq, the manager received no carry for 2022, and the carry for 2023 is based on the 2-year return of +9.3%, not the 2023 return of 53.6%. The fund usually would have a “high water mark” clause that requires the manager to make up for prior loss before getting paid. Therefore, Wall Street bonuses may not be that big this year. 2024 Outlook for US Equities The December 26th CFTC Commitments of Traders report (COT) shows that: • E-Mini Dow: “Asset Manager” has 26,070 long positions and 3,098 short positions. • E-Mini S&P 500: Asset Manager has 1,147,149 longs and 275,037shorts. • E-Mini Nasdaq 100: Asset Manager has 111,046 longs and 20,662 shorts. • E-Mini Russell 2000: Asset Manager 229,229 longs and 142,312 shorts. The overwhelmingly Net Long positions on all major US index futures indicate that futures traders are very bullish on US equities. Investors eye in a soft landing for the US economy and expect aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the first rate-cut could occur at the March 20th Fed meeting, with a 73.5% probability. For June 12th, the odds of two or more rate cuts increase to 82.2%. By December 18th, investors expect the Fed Funds rate will be 1% to 2% lower than the current 5.25-5.50% range, with 98.5% odds (Data as of January 1st). (Link: www.cmegroup.com) US equity indexes could stay high as long as the Fed remains dovish. The past few months proved that investors are very resilient. The bullish market sentiment is very hard to break, unless really bad things happen. If an investor owns US stocks, there is no good reason to sell them now. We have seen that geopolitical risks had done little damage to US equities. Fed policy still drives the market. Staying with the ride and hedging the stock portfolio with put options may be a good strategy. Trading with CME E-Mini Equity Index Put Options As US equity indexes take turn making all-time high, it’s costly to buy the underlying stocks. Options are an inexpensive alternative to get exposure in stocks. Depending your stock portfolio and views, you could either long or short the options on E-Mini S&P 500 futures • Last Friday, the March E-Mini S&P 500 futures (ESH4) was settled at 4,812.75. Buying 1 long or short position requires initial margins of $11,800; • January end-of-the-month (EOM) Call options with a 4910-strike costed 23.50 points. Premium for 1 call is $1,175 (= 23.5 x $50 multiplier); • January EOM Put options with a 4710-strike priced at 27 points. Premium for 1 put is $1,350 (= 27 x 50). We could construct a similar strategy with E-Mini Nasdaq 100. • Last Friday, the March E-Mini Nasdaq futures (NQH4) was settled at 17,003.75. Buying 1 long or short position requires initial margins of $17,700; • January end-of-the-month (EOM) Call options with a 17,200-strike costed 208.50 points. Premium for 1 call is $4,170 (= 208.50 x $20 multiplier); • January EOM Put options with a 16500-strike priced at 127.70 points. Premium for 1 put is $2,551.40 (= 127.75 x 20). In a rising market, out-of-the-money put options could be a strategy for small odds with big payoff. In January, we will have new data releases for December inflation (CPI and PCE) and nonfarm payroll employment, as well as a Fed meeting on January 31st. My reasoning: If we see inflation rebound, stronger employment, or a hawkish Fed, the stock market could turn south, resulting in a gain for the put. Hypothetically, if the March S&P futures price drops 150 points by January month-end options expiration, the put would be 47.25 points in-the-money (= 4710 – 4,662.75) and earn $2,362.5 (= 47.25 x $50). Using the initial margin as cost base calculations, the theoretical return would be 75% (= 2362.5 / 1350 - 1). If the March Nasdaq drops 800 points (17,003.75-800=16,203.75) at January options expiration, the put would be 296.25 points in-the-money (= 16,500 – 16,203.75) and earn $5,925 (= 296.25 x $20). The theoretical return would be 132% (= 5925 / 2551.4 - 1). On the other hand, if stocks continue to rise, put options will lose money, but never go beyond the premium already paid. Options Calculator is a free tool CME Group provided for options traders. It generates fair value prices and Greeks for any of CME Group’s options on futures contracts or price up a generic option with this universal calculator. Traders could customize their input parameters by strike, option type, underlying futures price, volatility, days to expiration (DTE), rate, and choose from 8 different pricing models including Black Scholes. www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Group Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
SP:SPXShort
by JimHuangChicago
Euro extends losses after weak PMIsThe euro is down sharply on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0969, down 0.62%. The euro hasn't posted a gain since Wednesday. The US dollar has hit a rough patch on market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates up to six times this year and that the current rate-tightening cycle is over. The euro has pummelled the US dollar since November 1, falling 5.3%. The New Year started with manufacturing releases from Germany and the eurozone earlier today. German manufacturing PMI was revised to 43.3 in December from a preliminary 43.1, compared to 42.6 in November and above the consensus of 43.1. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was also revised upwards to 44.4, up from 44.2 in the preliminary estimate and above the consensus of 44.2. The manufacturing sector in Germany and the eurozone is mired in a prolonged slump and hasn't shown growth since June 2022. There isn't much to cheer about but there is hope that the worst of the downturn is behind us as we move into 2024. Germany and the eurozone will post their inflation reports on Thursday. Last week, Spain posted lower-than-expected inflation numbers. Inflation has eased to 3.2% in Germany and 2.4% in the eurozone, as the ECB's target of 2% is getting closer. If the data shows that inflation eased in Germany and the eurozone as well, it will put pressure on the European Central Bank to cut rates in the first half of 2024. ECB President Lagarde has pushed back against rate cuts but she may have to shift her hawkish stance or risk tipping the weak eurozone economy into a recession. If the upcoming inflation reports indicate that inflation continues to fall, we can expect the voices in the ECB calling for looser policy to get louder. There is resistance at 1.1069 and 1.1102 1.0958 and 1.0887 are the next support lines
by OANDA
Gold Watch: CPI Impact and Interest Rate DynamicsGreetings Traders, Our spotlight is on XAUUSD, where we are actively eyeing a potential buying opportunity around the 2015 zone. As gold trades in an uptrend, it currently finds itself in a correction phase, steadily approaching the trend at the critical 2015 support area. This numerical level carries historical significance, serving as a vital juncture where the correction may align with substantial market forces, creating an opportune entry point for traders. To comprehend the potential market dynamics, we must delve into the macroeconomic fundamentals. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released on October 25, 2023, revealed an actual inflation rate of 1.2%, surpassing the forecast of 1.1% and the previous 0.8%. This ongoing trend of rising inflation is crucial, as it has the potential to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The latest FOMC data, dated December 13, 2023, reflects a steady interest rate of 5.50%. Such a stance indicates a commitment to combat inflation, but the continuous dovish rhetoric and the decision to maintain the interest rate may suggest that the Fed is cautious about tightening too quickly. This dovish sentiment in the monetary policy can lead to further weakness in the USD. Considering the interest rate evolution, the Fed has been on a trajectory of cautious adjustments. For instance, in the FOMC meeting on September 20, 2023, the interest rate was held at 5.50%, maintaining the status quo. This steady approach is indicative of the Fed's commitment to managing inflation without overly hindering economic growth. The correlation between interest rates and the strength of the USD is pivotal in understanding gold's potential upsides. The negative correlation between gold and the USD implies that a weakening dollar could propel gold prices higher. As traders navigate the XAUUSD chart, the careful consideration of both CPI and interest rate data is imperative. The dovish monetary policy's potential impact on the USD's strength and the subsequent influence on gold prices should be a focal point in crafting effective trading strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
USD/JPY yawns after BoJ CPI slipsThe Japanese yen is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.39, down 0.04%. Japanese inflation indicators have been heading lower. Last week, Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, dropped in November from 2.9% to 2.5%. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's Core CPI index followed suit and declined to 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in October. Core inflation may have dropped in November, but it has exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for well over a year and speculation is high that the central bank will shift policy and lift interest rates from negative territory, perhaps in early 2024. Such a move would mark a sea change in monetary policy, after decades of negative rates. We have seen that tweaks to the yield curve control program have triggered sharp movement from the yen, and it's a safe bet that a shift in rate policy would send the yen flying higher. BoJ policy meetings have become market-moving events and every comment from a senior BoJ official has the potential to shake up the currency markets. BoJ Governor Ueda has hinted that the economy is slowly moving towards the BoJ target, but the central bank wants to see stronger wage growth before it considers inflation to be sustainable. The BoJ has insisted that current inflation is being driven by cost-push factors and is not sustainable. On Monday, Ueda said that he would consider shifting policy if the "cycle between wages and prices intensifies" but added that there was no specific timing to changing the Bank's ultra-loose policy. The US wrapped up last week with the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. The headline reading fell to 2.6% y/y in November, down from a downwardly revised 2.9% in October and lower than the market consensus of 2.8%. The core rate eased to 3.2%, down from a downwardly revised 3.4% and lower than the market consensus of 3.3%. The numbers are welcome news for the Fed and support the case for rate cuts next year. Fed Chair Powell has pencilled in three cuts in 2024 but the markets have priced in up to six cuts. Investors have priced in a rate cut in January at 14%, up from 8% a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 142.55. Above, there is resistance at 142.78 There is support at 142.34 and 142.11
by OANDA
Macro Monday 25~The Feds Inflation Barometer – Core PCE Macro Monday 25 The Feds Favorite Inflation Barometer – Core PCE The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are released this Friday 22nd December 2023. Currently Core PCE is the most important component to the Federal Reserve in making their interest rate decisions and thus it will provide a great insight into what lies ahead in terms of interest rate policy for Q1 2024. Known as the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge for inflation, Core PCE is a crucial economic indicator that provides insights into the general trend in consumer spending (it excludes the more volatile energy & food costs). Jerome Powell “I will focus on core PCE inflation, which omits the food and energy components.” 25th Aug 2023 The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) compiles and publishes the Core PCE report which is considered a more comprehensive measure of general trends in consumer spending than some other indicators, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). We will briefly cover the differences between CPI and PCE which will eventually lead us to why specifically the Core PCE is the preferred barometer for inflation (over headline and core CPI and over headline PCE). Stick with me here and lets have a look at CPI vs PCE first… CPI Vs PCE - Main differences? Consumer Price Index: CPI is a metric that follows a fixed basket of goods. This fixed basket of items is measured month to month providing a consistent “basket of goods” cost for the common urban consumer. This allows for the basket of items to remain relatively unchanged thus providing an indication of how costs may be increasing or decreasing for the common consumer using the said basket (the basket is updated but not a frequently as the PCE basket). Personal Consumption Expenditures: PCE includes a broader range of goods and services, and it is based on more frequent updates to the basket of goods and services that represent consumer spending, thus PCE captures more of the trend or trend changes in consumer spending. PCE includes expenditures on durable goods (e.g., cars and appliances), nondurable goods (e.g., food and clothing), and services (e.g., healthcare and education). This breakdown provides insights into which sectors of the economy are experiencing changes in consumer spending. We covered Durable Goods in a prior Macro Monday (I will link same under the published version on my TradingView). The bottom line on PCE is that it is more broader and more consumer led report thus arguably providing a more accurate indication of the wider spending habits of the consumer Headline Vs Core (for both CPI and PCE) In general Headline CPI and Headline PCE have an all-encompassing basket of goods and services included whilst Core CPI and Core PCE focus on a subset by excluding the volatile components of food and energy. Analysts and policymakers often consider both Headline and Core to gain a comprehensive understanding of inflation trends, however Core PCE in particular provides the deepest and broadest insights into consumer led spending habits and provides the true underlying inflation by removing volatile commodities (Food & Energy). Lets look at CORE PCE a more closely What is the benefit of excluding food and energy from inflation figures for Core PCE and why is this so beneficial? 1. Reduced Volatility: Energy and food prices are known to be more volatile and subject to temporary fluctuations due to factors such as weather conditions, geopolitical events, and supply chain disruptions. By excluding these components, Core PCE aims to provide a more stable measure of inflation. 2. General Inflation Trend Focus: As noted above, the short-term volatility in energy and food prices can mask the underlying aggregate trend in other goods and services, so the PCE eliminates some of this short term noise from food and energy inflation figures. 3. Captures Persistent Underlying Inflation Forces: Core PCE filters out the impact of temporary shocks to energy and food prices. This can be valuable for assessing whether inflationary pressures are becoming ingrained in the economy in the general sense. 4. Long Term Planning for the Consumer and the Fed: Understanding the underlying inflation trend is crucial to knowing the base level of the cost trend. Core PCE can provide a more reliable gauge for long-term economic planning by smoothing out short-term fluctuations.This provides investors, consumers and the Fed with a sort of long term general expenditure based moving average (the Core PCE) for the underlying inflation burden that is trending in an economy. All three participants can make the necessary adjustments to cater to this long term trajectory and thus the metric is a powerful tool for all involved. Now that we know why the PCE is such a useful metric we can have a look at the long term PCE chart and see how things have been trending. For the record CPI already came out for the month of November as CPI is typically released mid-month whilst PCE is released towards the end of the month. Remember we will have an update this Friday from the BLS on the November readings for Core and Headline PCE, so we can see how we are looking then. The Core and Headline CPI Chart This CPI chart illustrates the following: ▫️ You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI. As discussed above, Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide a more general view of underlying inflation (based on a fixed basket of goods) ▫️ It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserves target of 2% which is also outlined on the chart (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first. ▫️ You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardized zone between 1 – 3%. The Core and Headline PCE Chart (SUBJECT CHART AT TOP PROVIDED TODAY) (will be updated this with newly released figures this Friday 22nd Dec) This CPI chart illustrates many of the same findings from the CPI chart above: ▫️ Core PCE provides the deepest and broadest insights into consumer led spending habits versus a more fixed and stringent basket of goods for CPI, making Core PCE the Feds favorite inflation barometer to watch. ▫️ You can clearly see how Core PCE is less volatile than Headline PCE. As discussed above, Core PCE removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide a more general view of underlying inflation (based on a fixed basket of goods). ▫️ It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% which is also outlined on the chart (purple line). The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. Anything that happens to interfere with this between now and then will need to be addressed by the fed. ▫️ You can see that since 1991 Core PCE has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardized zone between 1 – 3%. Summary You can visualize on the charts why the Core CPI and Core PCE is more important to Chair Powell, both Core metrics on the charts are almost like a slower moving average providing an indication of the longer term inflation trend. Right now Headline metrics are diving down past the Core metrics and the Federal Reserve cannot just take that volatile headline figure to make long term decisions. The Core PCE/CPI provides the long term trend trajectory whilst the Headline can offer early/lead signals of the direction of inflation, however core must be observed to determine the resilience of the long term trend. Furthermore, Core PCE is perceived by the FED as having more value as it has its finger on the pulse of the consumers spending habits by covering a broader range of expenditures whilst also accounting for consumer led spending trends. The CPI basket of goods in more fixed/restricted in terms of the goods it accounts for. This is why the FED values Core PCE so highly as a versatile and all encompassing gauge of inflation. Hopefully you’ve come away today with a greater understanding of why the Core CPI and PCE data is preferred by the Fed ahead of headline inflation and also why the Core PCE comes out ahead as the chosen long term inflation gauge. Any questions or observations, please throw them into the comments and I will be onto them as quickly as possible, Thanks for reading, PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC
by PukaCharts
USD/JPY eyes inflation, BoJ minutesThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.85, down 0.61%. Later today, the US releases third-estimate GDP for the third quarter, which is expected to confirm that the economy grew at an impressive rate of 5.2% q/q. Japan's Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, is considered the preferred inflation gauge for the Bank of Japan. The November report, which will be released on Friday, is expected to fall to 2.5% y/y, compared to 2.9% in October. Core CPI has exceeded the BoJ's 2% target for 19 straight months, putting pressure on the central bank to tighten policy. The BoJ has insisted that high inflation is a result of cost-push pressures and that higher wage growth is needed to ensure that inflation is sustainable. Still, a shift in policy from the BoJ is likely a question of when rather than if, with senior BoJ officials hinting that the central bank is considering tightening its ultra-loose policy. Japan's government expects inflation to remain well above the target and has revised upwards its inflation forecast to 2.5% for the fiscal year starting in April. The previous forecast stood at 1.9%. The government said that the upward revision was due to a weaker yen, higher oil prices and the expected reduction in subsidies for utility costs. The Bank of Japan will release on Friday the minutes from the meeting on October 31. At the meeting, the BoJ maintained policy but removed the 1% upper ceiling on its yield control curve (YCC) program, saying 1% would remain a reference level. The tweak was enough to shake up the currency markets, as the yen plunged 1.78% against the US dollar on October 31, its sharpest daily gain since February. Investors will be looking through the minutes for further details about the decision to tweak YCC and any hints about future rate policy. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 143.18 and is testing support at 142.80. Below, there is support at 142.34 There is resistance at 143.64 and 144.02
by OANDA
FTSE 100 reaches seven month high on softer CPIThe FTSE 100 surged in early trading on Wednesday as the latest inflation figures showed consumer prices had risen less than expected in the last 12 months. Headline CPI came in at 3.9% year-over-year in November, the lowest level in two years. Analysts had been expecting the figure to drop to 4.3% from 4.6%. Core inflation also dropped more than expected to 5.1% from 5.7%. The softer data underpinned expectations for the Bank of England to start cutting rates sometime next year. Before the data and the FOMC’s surprise dovish tilt last week, markets were pricing in the first cut from the BoE sometime in the third quarter of 2024. As of Wednesday morning, the first full 25bps cut is priced in for May, but there are 13bps of easing priced in by March. By year-end, markets anticipate 134bps of easing, which would entail five 25bps cuts in 2024. This seems to contradict the messaging that came from the BoE in their meeting last week. The central bank failed to acknowledge rate cuts, going as far as to reiterate that further rate rises could be possible if needed. Markets failed to believe this, and the Federal Reserve is mostly to blame for that. Their unexpected dovish tilt opened the door for other central banks to welcome talk about easing, but neither the BoE nor the ECB took the bait. Regardless, markets see the Fed’s change in position as the turning point in monetary policy across central banks in developed economies, which means they expect the BoE to follow suit sooner or later. The BoE’s reluctance to show a dovish inclination at their meeting on Thursday last week weighed on UK stocks, especially those most sensitive to rates. The FTSE 100 shed over 1% as the central bank remained firm in its hawkish stance, but Wednesday’s softer CPI data has pushed the index to a seven-month high.
CAPITALCOM:UK100
by Capitalcom
Canadian dollar drifting ahead of CPI releaseThe Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3382, down 0.13%. We could see stronger movement from the Canadian dollar in the North American session, with the release of the Canadian inflation report. Canada releases the November inflation report later on Tuesday. In October, inflation dropped to 3.1% y/y, down sharply from 3.8%. The market consensus for November stands at 2.9%. Two key core inflation indicators are expected to ease to an average of 3.3%, down from an average of 3.5% in October. A further drop in inflation would be an encouraging sign for the Bank of Canada, which has raised the cash rate to 5.0% but has paused three straight times. The BoC remained hawkish at the December meeting and kept the door open to additional rate hikes but the markets are convinced that the rate-tightening cycle is over and have priced in rate cuts next year, starting in mid-2024. A drop in the November inflation report would bolster expectations for rate cuts next year. If inflation surprises on the upside, it would bolster the Canadian dollar and force the BoC to continue pausing rates at restrictive levels ('higher for lower'). The US dollar has hit a rough patch since the Fed meeting last week when Fed Chair Powell penciled in three rate cuts next year. Traders are far more bullish and have priced in six rate hikes in 2024, starting in March. We're seeing some pushback from the Fed to dampen rate-cut fever in the markets. On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams said a rate cut in March was "premature" and even warned that rates could move higher if inflation were to stall or reverse. Cleveland Fed President Mester said on Monday that the markets are a "bit ahead" of the Fed on rate cuts, as the Fed was focused on how long it would need to maintain rates in restrictive territory, while the markets were focused on rate cuts. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3363. Below, there is support at 1.3327 There is resistance at 1.3386 and 1.3422
by OANDA
The Great Inflation AGAIN? US Inflation Rate YoY Comparison - ECONOMICS:USIRYY Stark similarities to the beginning of the Great Inflationary Period (GIP) which ranged from 1965 - 1982. The GIP fractal is not a prediction, it only offers us perspective and context. As an example, US Inflation YoY could potentially bounce around between 3 - 4% for another 32 months as it did between 1975 - 1978 before making any major move. This is a scenario I had not considered, an almost 3 year sideways boring consolidation. We will continue to track this chart to see how it compares moving forward into the future. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
MP Materials: Falling Wedge With Bullish Divergence at a 0.886The Federal Reserve during the FOMC and in its SEP has hinted greatly towards deep rate cuts in 2024 because they see the CPI going down and no longer feel the need to tighten further, and are under the assumption that great progress has been made. I for one do not agree with this perspective and think rates need to go much higher before inflation can truly be subsided. Since the Fed is under what I view as a false assumption, I think we will now see Inflation and the CPI come back up even higher and faster than the first inflationary run up and that we will see this greatly reflected in Food, Energy, and Shipping prices. Along with this, I think it will affect the pricing of Rare Earth Elements which should end up being a positive for the Assets on the balance sheet of producers such as MP Materials, VALE, and US Steel: X, along with the REMX ETF; as demand for ships and other means of shipment/transport increases. The increase in demand for these types of shipments should also drive demand for the materials the shipping vehicles are made of, which should drive the prices higher for both. I do not think Gold and Silver will join this inflationary rally due to the collapse of the Japanese Carry Trade, and I do not believe the Dollar will lose much value during this rally in inflationary materials except against the Yen. This dynamic should also limit the rally potential in the big stock indexes, I only really expect certain names to benefit from the kind of inflation we are dealing with. So in short, I think the Bulk Dry Index continues to rise, Shipping Cost Rise, Ships themselves Rise, Oil Rises, and Rare Earth Materials Rise and when that happens, I suspect the Fed will pivot hard back in the other direction and start raising rates again.
NYSE:MPLong
by RizeSenpai
2
US Financial Markets facing CPI after US Down-Graded to AA+- Emerging Markets are in a paranoid state due to Major US Financial Markets nearing scheduled date of CPI numbers releasing day. Consensus forecasts are anticipating Inflation to steadily go up for the rest of 2023 and entering '24 10'th of August/23 will be a very important day for The Global Financial Markets. Casualties might follow soon due to the turbulence of this frenzy economic environment created. Is US about to enter a recession ? Or do you believe Powell's joke of 'Soft Landing' How about another joke Powell ... Note that US technically had entered recession by two negative consecutive Quarters, however, it got 'saved' by promising growing employment numbers. Seems like Feds are masters at postponing cascading tragedies, great tricksters filled with riddles. With Euro-Zone being officially in Recession for a while now, it's just a matter of time for US fate to be sealed. Why learn economics !? Broader and clearer pictures to strategize your investing/positioning and smaller time frames trading decisions, be it swings, intradays or scalps. Seems like it is enough today for a good poker player and a gambler to trade the markets. How many times can you get lucky in repetitive motion and consider making in to trading for a living ?! Not long . Open your horizons and explore financial literacy to be more in touch with Facade of Financial Markets.
TVC:SPX
by Mr_J__fx
NZD/USD slips ahead of GDP, Fed meetingThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower in Wednesday trade. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6095, down 0.61%. US inflation ticked lower in October as expected and the release was a non-event for the markets, which slightly reduced their rate-cut pricing. Headline CPI climbed 3.1% year-on-year in November, down from 3.2% in October and in line with the market estimate of 3.1%. Core CPI, which is considered a more reliable gauge of inflation trends, climbed 4.0% year-on year in November, unchanged from October. This matched the market estimate of 4.0%. On a monthly basis, both CPI and Core CPI ticked higher. CPI came in at 0.1%, up from 0.0% in October and the core rate also rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. Both readings matched the market estimates. A decline in gasoline prices helped pull down inflation. However, a wide range of goods and services experienced price increases, suggesting that underlying inflation remains sticky. Today's FOMC meeting could provide clues as to what the Fed has in mind in the New Year. The markets have priced in a pause today at close to 100%, so the focus will be the rate statement and Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference. If Powell is hawkish and pushes back against rate cuts, it could force the market to again reduce rate cut expectations. New Zealand releases GDP for the third quarter on Thursday, with expectations for a weak gain of 0.2% q/q, compared to a sharp gain in Q2 of 0.9%. On an annualized basis, the market consensus stands at 0.5%, following a 1.8% gain in the second quarter. An unexpected reading could have a strong impact on the direction of the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6076. Below, there is support at 0.6031 There is resistance at 0.6150 and 0.6195
by OANDA
US CPI Data: Dollar Down As Rate Uncertainty Sustains VolatilityAs the clock ticks towards 13:30 GMT, financial markets are bracing for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, a pivotal metric that provides a snapshot of the current state of the United States economy. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, making it a crucial indicator for gauging inflationary pressures. Against the backdrop of the recent dichotomy in US inflation trends, where rates have reduced from alarming figures in 2021 to a current 3.2%, the forthcoming CPI figures are anticipated to shed light on the continued trajectory. This reduction in inflation, although positive for economic stability, has occurred alongside a somewhat unconventional stance by the Federal Reserve. Traditionally, central banks opt to raise interest rates to curb spending and counteract inflation. However, the US Federal Reserve has maintained a steadfast position in increasing interest rates for over a year, even as inflation trends abate. This seemingly contradictory approach has prompted speculation within financial circles, with analysts debating the motives behind the prolonged interest rate hikes. The anticipated November CPI data is expected to show a 3.1% year-on-year increase, a slight dip from the 3.2% recorded in October. Additionally, annual Core CPI inflation is forecasted to remain steady at 4% for November. These figures will be closely scrutinised to discern any shifts or continuations in the recent trends. Interestingly, the foreign exchange market has already signalled early sentiments ahead of the CPI release. The British pound exhibited strength against the US dollar in the early hours of the London session, reaching a value of 1.2580 at FXOpen. This movement is an intriguing indicator of market sentiment and may reflect expectations or reactions to the anticipated CPI figures. As the financial community awaits the unveiling of the November CPI data, the juxtaposition of decreasing inflation and persistent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve adds an element of complexity to the economic narrative. The numbers released will not only impact currency markets but will also influence broader economic outlooks and potentially shape future policy decisions. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
GBP/USD drifting ahead of US inflationThe British pound is drifting on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2551, down 0.04%. Tuesday's UK employment report was notable for the decline in wage growth. Earnings excluding bonuses rose 7.3% in the three months to October, down from 7.8% in the three months to September. This was lower than the consensus estimate of 7.4%. Wage growth is an important driver of inflation and the decline is an encouraging sign for the Bank of England. Still, earnings are rising much faster than inflation, which suggests that the BoE won't be cutting interest rates anytime soon. Inflation has fallen to 4.6%, but this is more than double the Bank's target of 2%. The BoE will announce its latest rate decision on Thursday and is widely expected to hold the cash rate at 5.25%. Governor Bailey has warned that rates could remain in restrictive territory for an extended period, but the markets are marching to a dovish tune and have priced in three rate cuts in 2024. Bailey has come out against expectations about rate cuts and we could see the BoE push back against rate cut speculation at the Thursday meeting. The US releases November CPI later today, with a consensus estimate of 3.0% y/y, compared to 3.2% in October. Monthly, CPI is expected to remain flat, unchanged from October. Core CPI, which has been running higher than the headline rate, is projected to remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y. Monthly, the core rate is expected to inch higher to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in October. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at a range of 5%-5.25% at the Wednesday meeting, but the inflation release could be a key factor as to what the Fed does in the upcoming months. There is a major disconnect between the markets, which have priced in four rate cuts in 2024, and the Fed, which is insisting that the door remains open to further hikes. A strong inflation report could chill market expectations for rate hikes, while a soft inflation release will provide support for the market stance and could force the Fed to reconsider its hawkish position. GBP/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.25, followed by 1.2682 1.2484 and 1.2369 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDX: Thoughts and Analysis Pre-US CPIToday's focus: USDX Pattern – LH Resistance push Support – 102.45 Resistance – 104.12 - 104.35 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at USDX on the daily chart. Today's video asks if USDX will continue to remain below resistance and possibly break lower if today's CPI data comes in lower than expected. We are mainly focused on the resistance areas and the current LH that has formed around the supply and resistance areas discussed in our video update. We have also noted some bullish price action; if CPI rises to the upside, this could set up a new continuation higher. But for now, as noted in today's video, we will continue to look at the resistance holds and the current trend of CPI declines on the y/y. US CPI data is due on Wednesday at 8:30 am EST or 12:30 pm AEDT. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Eightcap