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LONG ON GOLDGold has fell almost $100 or 1000 pips since Monday from its high. Its currently at a major demand level that was created 2/7/25 that caused it to rise $100 points to 2/24//25. History from 2/7/25 looks like it will be repeating itself. Dollar (DXY) looks bearish and PCE news comes out at 8:30 for Inflation which I believe will come out bad causing the dollar to tank and gold as well as the indices to rise. I will be buying gold looking to catch that $100 move or 1000pips. See you at the Top! OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BBIDF
2
Japanese yen declines as Tokyo Core CPI easesThe Japanese yen has extended its losses on Friday.  In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.39, up 0.40% on the day. After a string of releases that pointed to an upswing in inflation, Tokyo core CPI for February reversed the trend on Friday.  Japan's CPI, PPI and the Bank of Japan Core CPI all accelerated in the most recent releases but Tokyo Core CPI surprised to the downside, with a gain of 2.2% y/y.  This was down from 2.5% in January and below the market estimate of 2.3%. The soft Tokyo Core CPI reading is unlikely to raise many eyebrows at the Bank of Japan. The index remained above the BoJ's 2% target for a fourth consecutive month and Bank policymakers are expected to remain hawkish about monetary policy.  The BoJ raised rates in January and also revised its inflation forecasts upwards, a signal that further rate hikes are on the table. The markets are expecting the BoJ to continue tightening and this has been resulted in higher yields for Japanese government bonds, which hit a 15-year high earlier this month. Governor Kazuo Ueda responded to the sharp rise in bond yields with a warning that the central bank stood ready to intervene in the bond markets. Ueda's threat appears to have worked as bond yields have retreated slightly. The US wraps up the week with core PCE inflation, the Fed's peferred inflation gauge. The market estimates for January stand at 2.6% y/y (vs. 2.8% in December) and 0.2% m/m (vs. 0.3% in December). This would still be above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The Fed is not expected to lower rates before May, barring an unexpected surprise from inflation or employment data. USD/JPY tested resistance at 150.39 earlier.  Above, there is resistance at 150.98 There is support at 149.57 and 148.98
by OANDA
What Lies Beneath Chevron's Venezuelan Exit?In a striking geopolitical maneuver, the Trump administration has revoked Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela, effective March 1. This decision marks a sharp departure from the Biden-era policy, which had conditionally allowed Chevron’s operations to encourage free elections in the beleaguered nation. Beyond punishing Venezuela for unmet democratic benchmarks, the move reflects a broader U.S. strategy to bolster domestic oil production and lessen dependence on foreign energy sources. Chevron, a titan with over a century of history in Venezuela, now faces the unraveling of a vital revenue stream, prompting us to ponder the delicate dance between corporate ambition and national agendas. The ripple effects for Venezuela are profound and perilous. Chevron accounted for nearly a quarter of the country’s oil production, and its exit is forecast to slash Venezuela’s revenue by $4 billion by 2026. This economic blow threatens to rekindle inflation and destabilize a nation already teetering on the edge of recovery, exposing the intricate ties between U.S. corporate presence and sanctioned states. For Chevron, the revocation transforms a once-lucrative asset into a geopolitical liability, thrusting the company into a high-stakes test of resilience. This clash of interests challenges us to consider the true cost of operating in the shadow of political volatility. On the global stage, this decision reverberates through energy markets and diplomatic corridors. Oil prices have already twitched in response, hinting at tighter supplies. At the same time, the fate of other foreign firms in Venezuela hangs in the balance, shadowed by the looming threat of secondary sanctions. As the U.S. sharpens its confrontational edge, the energy landscape braces for transformation, with consequences for geopolitical alliances and energy security worldwide. Is Chevron’s departure merely a pawn in a broader strategic game, or does it herald a seismic shift in global power dynamics? The answer may redefine the boundaries of energy and influence in the years ahead.
NYSE:CVXShort
by UDIS_View
Swiss franc dips as Swiss GDP declinesThe Swiss franc is down for a second straight trading day.  In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8980, up 0.38% on the day. The Swiss economy slowed to 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 0.4% in Q3 and in line with expectations.  This was the weakest expansion since Q2 2023.  Construction weakened in the fourth quarter but manufacturing and exports rebounded from the previous quarter.  Annualized, GDP rose 1.5%, down from 1.9% in Q3, the softest expansion in three quarters. The weak GDP data supports the case for the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates.  The central bank is in the midst of an easing cycle and showed its aggressive side in December when it chopped rates by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%. The SNB only meets on a quarterly basis, magnifying the importance of each meeting.  The next meeting is on March 20 and the markets have priced in a 25-bps cut at close to 100%.  There are two key factors that Bank policymakers will be looking ahead of a rate decision - inflation levels and the exchange rate. Inflation has fallen by 0.1% for four consecutive months and is putting pressure on the SNB to continue lowering rates.  The next inflation report is on March 5 and another soft report would cement a rate cut at next month's meeting.  The SNB also uses monetary policy to ensure that the Swiss franc is not too strong, which would hurt the export sector. The US releases second-estimate GDP for the fourth quarter of 2024 later today. The initial estimate came in at 2.3%, down from 3.2% in the third quarter. The US economy remains strong and inflation has been largely contained. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this year only once or twice, unless the economic data does not evolve as expected. USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8992.  Above, there is resistance at 0.9018 0.8969 and 0.8943 are providing support
by OANDA
USDJPY - Longterm viewHere is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels . Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . USDJPY is currently trading at around 149.000s . We are still extremely bearish on FX:USDJPY since our last longterm analysis was completed: Scenario 1: SELLS from 148.200 -We broke below the downtrend channel. With the break of the downtrend channel we can expect more sells to come and we should continue the bearish trend on USDJPY slowly digging into lower levels potentially reaching our target of 145.000. Scenario 2: SELLS from 151.250 -We above the downtrend channel - 149.900. If we above our downtrend channel we can expect some short-term buys up to our main Key Level or PBA (Pullback Area) from where we can look to enter into the long-term sells. IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS: - 151.250; possible pullback area - 148.200; breaks below confirming lower levels - 145.000; longterm target (prices from Aug-Sep 2024) Personal opinion: We are currently trading in a downtrend channel and we are expecting more sells to come throughout the next weeks. We do have to be careful as TVC:DXY and TVC:JXY might experience some volatility tomorrow due to the following news: JXY: Tokyo Core CPI y/y DXY: Core PCE Price Index m/m KEY NOTES - USDJPY breaking above 149.900 would result in higher pullbacks. - USDJPY breaking below 148.200 (below the downtrend channel) would confirm sells. - USDJPY is overall extremely bearish. Happy trading! FxPocket
Short
by FxPocket
1
JOURNAL FOR MGC1!Today I placed two trades on MGC1! my first entry was a sell scalp which was strictly a technical entry and the second was the buy back up because it goes with the bias of gold being bullish, and inflation fears, so for each trade Ive wait on a area of consolidation (order block) then wait on a break out in this case after that impulsive move to the downside on gold I waited for an area of support to form with rejections of pushing lower at this point an order block should start forming, I tend to get a better structure of an order block forming on the 5min, once a bullish engulfing to print above the last high then I take the trade, today I had no draw down my entry was precise!
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by FuturesBaddie
BoJ Core CPI climbs to 2.2%, yen declinesThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Wednesday.  In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.25, up 0.16% on the day. What is the best performing G-10 currency against the US dollar this year?  Surprisingly, the Japanese yen is the winner, with gains of about 5% against the greenback.  This is a remarkable turnaround from 2024, when the yen plunged 11.4% against the US dollar and sank to its lowest level in 38 years. The yen's newfound strength is largely due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year, unlike the other major central banks that have been lowering rates.  The BoJ has been raising rates slowly but with inflation indicators moving upwards, even the cagey BOJ has signaled that it will continue to raise rates. Japan's CPI hit 3.2% in January, a 19-month high, and this week's January inflation numbers are also pointing upward.  The producer price index jumped to 3.1%, up from 2.9% in December.  BoJ Core CPI climbed to 2.2% in January, up from 1.9% in December and its third consecutive acceleration.  Next up is Tokyo Core CPI on Friday. In the US, consumer confidence shocked with an unexpectedly weak report.  The Conference Board consumer confidence index slipped to 98.3 in January, well below the revised December reading of 105.3 and shy of the market estimate of 102.5.  The seven-point drop was the sharpest month-to-month decline since August 2021.  The report found that more consumers are expecting a recession.  Retail sales fell 0.9% m/m in December, the biggest decline in a year.  If consumer data continues to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve will have to consider accelerating the pace of rate cuts. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 149.30.  Above, there is resistance at 150.03 There is support at 148.30 and 147.57
by OANDA
Australian dollar awaiting inflation dataThe Australian dollar is steady after two straight losing trading days.  In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6343, down 0.09% on the day. Australia releases the consumer price index for January on Wednesday. Inflation has been moving higher, as CPI accelerated in December to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% and its highest level since August.  The market estimate for January stands at 2.6%. Inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band of 2%-3% but the central bank remains concerned about upside risks to inflation.  The RBA finally lowered rates last week after maintaining rates for over a year and joined most of the major central banks which are in the midst of an easing cycle.  The RBA delivered a "hawkish cut" as the central bank stated it "remains cautious" on the possibility of further cuts and the markets aren't expecting a rate cut before May. The latest headache for RBA policymakers is the Trump administration which has hit China with tariffs and threatened to apply tariffs to other trading partners.  This could lead to another trade war with China which would likely raise inflation and hurt China's economy.  China is Australia's largest trading partner and a slowdown in China would hurt Australia's key export sector. The US releases the Conference Board consumer confidence index later today. The market estimate stands at 102.5 for January, down from 104.1 in December. The US consumer is spending, as retail sales for December rose 0.4% m/m and 5.5% annualized from November. The labor market is strong, wages are outpacing inflation and the economy is humming. This rosy picture means that the Federal Reserve isn't under pressure to lower rates and the markets aren't expecting another rate cut before June. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6331 earlier.  Below, there is support at 0.6314 0.6362 and 0.6379 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
$US30 DOW JONES—STEADY AMID THE STORMDOW JONES—STEADY AMID THE STORM (1/9) Good morning, Tradingview! The Dow Jones is the cool-headed cousin—less wild than Nasdaq’s growth party 📈🔥. Blue-chip stability shines, even as inflation bites—let’s unpack it! 🚀 (2/9) – WHY SO CALM? • Makeup: 30 big, steady names—Walmart, Goldman 💥 • Price-Weighted: High flyers lead, not tech zingers 📊 • Edge: Less sway from growth stock swings Dow’s the tortoise—slow and steady wins? (3/9) – RECENT VIBES • Feb 22: 1.7% dip—support at 43,400 holds 🌍 • VIX: Stays chill—Nasdaq would’ve freaked 🚗 • CPI Hit: 400-point drop, 300 back—meh 🌟 Stability’s the Dow’s secret sauce! (4/9) – SECTOR SNAP • Vs. Nasdaq: Tech’s jittery—Dow’s diversified 📈 • Volatility: ~15-20% vs. Nasdaq’s 25-30% • Champs: Blue-chips buffer the chaos Steadier ship—less Nasdaq nuttiness! 🌍 (5/9) – INFLATION RIPPLES • CPI Spike: 3% YoY—400-point jolt ⚠️ • Fed: No rush to cut—rates sting 🏛️ • X Buzz: Tariffs, inflation spook recovery 📉 Even the Dow feels the heat—but shrugs! (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Stability: Blue-chip backbone holds firm 🌟 • Dividends: Cash flows steady the ship 🔍 • Mix: Less tech tantrums—broad base 🚦 Dow’s the rock in choppy waters! (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: Inflation nicks costs—ouch 💸 • Opportunities: Safety shines if tech flops 🌍 Can Dow dodge the inflation blues? (8/9) – Dow’s steady play—what’s your vibe? 1️⃣ Bullish—Stability’s golden. 2️⃣ Neutral—Holds, but inflation looms. 3️⃣ Bearish—Growth wins anyway. Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY Dow’s less jittery—blue-chips cushion the storm 🌍🪙. Inflation’s a nag, but stability rules. Rock or relic?
ICMARKETS:US30Long
by DCAChampion
Market Alert: Potential Downside Ahead! The S&P 500 (SPX) just closed with a strong bearish candle, dropping -104 points (-1.71%), signaling a possible shift in momentum. The index is now testing a key support level near 6,000, and if this level breaks, we could see a sharper pullback. 📉 What’s Happening in the Market? 1️⃣ Rising Interest Rate Concerns – The Federal Reserve remains cautious about inflation, and recent economic data suggests they may keep rates higher for longer. This puts pressure on equities, especially high-growth stocks. 2️⃣ Earnings Season Uncertainty – Many companies are reporting mixed earnings, with some missing expectations. Weak guidance from major corporations could fuel more downside. 3️⃣ Geopolitical Tensions & Market Volatility – Ongoing global uncertainties, such as geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions, are adding risk-off sentiment to the market. 4️⃣ Technical Breakdown Risks – The SPX is currently sitting near critical support at 6,000. If this level fails, we could see further selling pressure toward 5,920 - 5,880 and possibly as low as 5,773. 🔥 What to Watch Next? ✅ Can the market hold 6,000 and bounce? Or will sellers push prices lower? ✅ Watch for reactions around 6,068 - 6,100—if the index struggles here, more downside is likely. ✅ Increased volatility means risk management is key—stay cautious, and don’t chase trades! ⚠️ Bottom Line: The market is at a turning point. If downside momentum continues, we could see a bigger correction. Stay alert and manage risk accordingly!
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (CPI)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 4% (January/2025) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan climbed to 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months (7.8% vs 6.4% in December), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.0% vs 18.7%) and gas cost (6.8% vs 7.8%) remained elevated with the absence of energy subsidies since May 2024. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.8%), clothing (2.8% vs 2.9%), transport (2.0% vs 1.1%), furniture and household items (3.4% vs 3.0%), healthcare (1.8% vs 1.7%), recreation (2.6% vs 4.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.4% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-0.3% vs -2.1%) and education (-1.1% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 19-month high of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in December and topping consensus of 3.1%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.5%, after December's 14-month top of 0.6% rise.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Could One Event Propel Gold to $6,000?Gold has long been a refuge in times of crisis, but could it be on the brink of an unprecedented surge? Analysts now predict the precious metal could reach $6,000 per ounce, driven by a potent mix of geopolitical instability, macroeconomic shifts, and strategic accumulation by central banks. The prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a major global flashpoint, could be the catalyst that reshapes the financial landscape, sending investors scrambling for safe-haven assets.   The looming threat of conflict in Taiwan presents an unparalleled risk to global supply chains, particularly in semiconductor production. A disruption in this critical sector could spark widespread economic turmoil, fueling inflationary pressures and eroding confidence in fiat currencies. As nations brace for potential upheaval, central banks and investors are increasingly turning to gold, reinforcing its role as a geopolitical hedge. Meanwhile, de-dollarization efforts by BRICS nations further elevate gold’s strategic importance, intensifying its upward trajectory.   Beyond geopolitical risks, macroeconomic forces add momentum to gold’s ascent. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts, persistent inflation, and record national debt levels all contribute to a weakening dollar. This, in turn, makes gold more attractive to global buyers, accelerating demand. At the same time, the psychological factor—fear-driven safe-haven buying and speculative enthusiasm—creates a self-reinforcing cycle, pushing prices ever higher.   Despite counterforces such as potential Fed policy shifts or a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, the weight of uncertainty appears overwhelming. The convergence of economic instability, shifting power dynamics, and investor sentiment suggest that gold’s march toward $6,000 is less a speculative fantasy and more an inevitable financial reality. As the world teeters on the edge of historic change, gold may well be the ultimate safeguard in an era of global upheaval.
AMEX:GLDLong
by UDIS_View
Is History Repeating? XAUUSD on the Verge of a Breakout!📌 Description: Gold's price action is aligning with a familiar historical pattern, hinting at a potential breakout. Let’s break it down: 1️⃣ Historical Precedent – Looking back, a similar market structure led to a significant bullish move. Recognizing these patterns can provide an edge in anticipating market behavior. 2️⃣ Recurring Structure – Once again, the chart is shaping up in a way that mirrors past price action. If history is any guide, this could be a pivotal moment. 3️⃣ Bullish Pennant Formation – The current price action suggests the formation of a bullish pennant, a classic continuation pattern. When combined with historical context, the probability of a breakout strengthens. 🔍 Fundamental Factors: - Geopolitical Uncertainty: Rising tensions and macroeconomic instability continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. - Interest Rate Expectations: With potential shifts in central bank policies, any dovish signals could fuel further upside in XAUUSD. - Inflation & USD Strength: Any weakness in the dollar or persistent inflation could further support gold’s bullish case. ⚡ Is this the next major move for gold? Let’s discuss! Drop your thoughts below! 👇
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ProcessAndIntercept
RBNZ lowers rates by 50 bps, NZ dollar gains groundThe New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday.  NZD/USD is trading at 0.5721 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 3.75%.  The markets had priced in the cut at 90% so there was no surprise at the jumbo cut.  This lowered the cash rate to its lowest level since Nov. 2022.  The RBNZ demonstrated again that it can be aggressive, as it has cut rates by 175 basis points since the easing cycle started last August. The New Zealand dollar is stronger on Wednesday, which is somewhat surprising, given the jumbo rate cut and the RBNZ's signal that further rate cuts are on the way in the coming months. The rate statement noted that the members were confident lowering rates as CPI remained near the midpoint of the 1%-3% target band.  At the same time, members expressed concern that economic activity in New Zealand and abroad were "subdued" which posed a risk to economic growth. The statement also made a brief mention of "trade restrictions" which could dampen economic growth.  No mention was made of US President Trump's tariff threats but policymakers are clearly concerned that US tariffs, even if not aimed directly at New Zealand, could chill the global economy and hurt the country's key export sector. In a follow-up press conference, Governor Adrian Orr said that the Bank expected to lower the cash rate to 3% by the end of the year.  This forecast was lower than the November projection of 3.2% by year's end.  The central bank is expected to deliver smaller rate cuts of 25-bps in the coming months. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5713.  Above, there is resistance at 0.5731 0.5686 and 0.5668 and the next support levels
by OANDA
1
XAUUSD - Consolidation, what’s next?Here is our in-depth detailed view on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a detailed overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels. Alright first, taking a look at XAUUSD from a lower time-frame . For this we will be looking at the m15 time-frame . As of right now, we are consolidating on OANDA:XAUUSD The best “signal” for now is to sit on our hands and wait for a clear break. Right now we are in a range from around 2905.6 and 2896 . Until we get a clear break , we can’t know the direction of the pair just yet. So, breaking down everything and understanding the importance of Key Levels we have several outcomes possibly in play. Scenario 1: BUYS at the break to the upside (from the consolidation area) - We broke above our consolidation area. With the break to the upside, we can expect to see 2915 or a deeper revisit of 2920. At this point we would have to see if we make any pullbacks, possibly revisiting the top of the consolidation area (now becoming our support). Scenario 2: SELLS at the break to the downside (from the consolidation area) - We broke below our consolidation area. With the break to the downside, we can expect to see lower levels such as 2880. At this point we would have to see if we make any pullbacks and continue chugging away to the downside. With the breaks of current lows we have on gold, we can expect drops even down to 2840. KEY NOTES - XAUUSD is consolidating. - Breaks to the upside would confirm buys. - Breaks to the downside would confirm sells. - Possible deeper digs to the upside from 2915. Happy trading! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FxPocket
1
U.S. Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations ComparisonThe U.S. Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation Comparison in the image attached shows the difference of the past 3 presidential administrations. I'm not trying to make this a political issue, but merely just looking at a comparison of what the masses of people have expected the future inflation rates to be in the past in order to have an idea of what to expect in the future. When looking at this comparison, it shows the difference between economic policies (different administrations) and their effects on inflation expectations. Granted, with some policy implementations having a lag effect, there is likely some overlap between administrations and their effect on the inflation expectations. The dashed orange lines show the limits of the majority of data points that fall within those dashed lines. Anything that plots outside the dashed orange lines are outliers / not normal (for the last 30+ years). COVID obviously had an outsized impact on inflation expectations since the U.S. government printed massive amounts of new money (Quantitative Easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve) to offset the closing of the economy / lockdowns due to COVID. That is marked on the chart to show approximately when that would have started. Thankfully, when COVID hit, we were at historically the lowest inflation expectations in U.S. history (as far back as the data goes on this chart). With our current administration trying to cut costs of the federal government and trying to increase external sources of tax revenue to offset decreases to internal tax revenue sources, I suspect that will decrease the federal spending (net effect). A large portion of our inflation in the U.S. economy comes from government spending and printing of new money (QE). Granted the Federal Reserve has been in a Quantitative Tightening (QT) mode lately to help cool recent elevated inflation. However, I bet the Fed will be going to a net zero (not QT or QE) stance soon before they begin QE again in the future. This will, hopefully in the short term, help inflation expectations come down, but tariffs will pressure inflation to increase if tariffs aren't offset enough by the administration lowering the taxes on U.S. citizens and businesses to have a net zero effect (which is possible). If the Federal Reserve starts QE sooner than later (highly unlikely unless our economy goes into a recession), then that will certainly put a lot of pressure on inflation to go up. This is a mistake the Fed has done before in the past back in the 1970's / 1980's until past Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised rates to the highest they've ever been to break the insane inflation rates back then. Time will tell if history rhymes again or not. I certainly hope inflation is tamed and not allowed to go crazy again. Please feel free to leave a comment / your thoughts below. I welcome all feedback on anywhere my analysis may have been wrong. Good luck trading / investing out there.
ECONOMICS:USMIE5Y
by InCogNito22
2
News TradingLet’s talk about news trading in Forex . While news trading is extremely lucrative it’s one of the most risky things a trader can do and experience. News and data cause extreme volatility in the market and as we always say “volatility can be your friend or your enemy” . Let’s take a deeper dive into news trading, which news and data affect the TVC:DXY precious metals such as OANDA:XAUUSD and other dollar related currency pairs. We will also cover having the right mindset for trading the news. 1. Understanding News Trading in Forex News trading is based on the idea that significant economic data releases and geopolitical events can cause sharp price fluctuations in forex markets. We as traders, aim to profit from these sudden price movements by positioning ourselves before or immediately after the news hits the market. However, due to market unpredictability, it requires a strategic plan, risk management, and quick decision making. 2. What to Do in News Trading 1. Know the Key Economic Events – Monitor economic calendars to stay updated on high-impact news releases. The most influential events include: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – A report on U.S. job growth that heavily influences the U.S. dollar. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Measures inflation, impacting interest rate decisions and currency valuation. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings – Determines U.S. monetary policy and interest rates, affecting global markets. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – A key indicator of economic growth, influencing currency strength. Central Bank Statements – Speeches by Fed Chair or ECB President can create large market moves. 2. Use an Economic Calendar – Websites like Forex Factory, Investing.com, or DailyFX provide real-time updates on economic events. 3. Understand Market Expectations vs. Reality – Markets often price in expectations before the news is released. If actual data deviates significantly from forecasts, a strong price movement may occur. 4. Trade with a Plan – Whether you are trading pre-news or post-news, have clear entry and exit strategies, stop-loss levels, and a defined risk-to-reward ratio. 5. Monitor Market Sentiment – Pay attention to how traders are reacting. Sentiment can drive price action more than the actual data. 6. Focus on Major Currency Pairs – News trading is most effective with liquid pairs like FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:USDJPY , and OANDA:USDCAD because they have tighter spreads and high volatility. 3. What NOT to Do in News Trading 1. Don’t Trade Without a Stop-Loss – Extreme volatility can cause sudden reversals. A stop-loss helps prevent catastrophic losses. 2. Avoid Overleveraging – Leverage magnifies profits but also increases risk. Many traders blow accounts due to excessive leverage. 3. Don’t Chase the Market – Prices may spike and reverse within seconds. Jumping in late can lead to losses. 4. Avoid Trading Without Understanding News Impact – Not all economic releases cause the same level of volatility. Study past reactions before trading. 5. Don’t Rely Solely on News Trading – Long-term success requires a balanced strategy incorporating technical analysis and risk management. 4. The Unpredictability of News Trading News trading is highly unpredictable. Even when a report meets expectations, market reactions can be erratic due to: Market Sentiment Shifts – Traders might focus on different aspects of a report than expected. Pre-Pricing Effects – If a news event was anticipated, the market might have already moved, causing a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ reaction. Liquidity Issues – Spreads widen during major news events, increasing trading costs and slippage. Unexpected Statements or Revisions – Central banks or government agencies can make last-minute statements that shake the market. 5. How News Affects Forex, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar 1. U.S. Dollar (USD) – The USD reacts strongly to NFP, CPI, FOMC statements, and GDP reports. Strong economic data strengthens the dollar, while weak data weakens it. 2. Gold (XAU/USD) – Gold is an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset. It often moves inversely to the USD and rises during economic uncertainty. 3. Stock Market & Risk Sentiment – Positive economic news can boost stocks, while negative reports may trigger risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. 6. The Right Mindset for News Trading 1. Accept That Volatility is a Double-Edged Sword – Big moves can mean big profits, but also big losses. 2. Control Emotions – Fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your strategy. 3. Risk Management is Key – Never risk more than a small percentage of your capital on a single trade. 4. Adaptability – Be prepared to change your approach if market conditions shift unexpectedly. 5. Patience and Experience Matter – The best traders wait for the right setups rather than forcing trades. Thank you for your support! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by FxPocket
4
Hot Inflation & What to Watch Next - 14/02/2514th of February 2025 •XRP and BNB leading, as Bitcoin trades flat in the last seven days. •Headline inflation metrics in the US land above expectations. •Impactful data point to watch heading into the end of February. --- A big week of headlines and events, particularly out of the US, have netted very little change in Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin is down 0.1% at the time of writing in the last seven-days, while altcoins such as XRP and BNB are showing double-digit gains. Bitcoin has struggled to make new year-to-date highs in the current state of global conditions. In contrast, global indices in the UK (FTSE100) and China (CSI300) have continued to make new year-to-date highs Mixed Messages & Above Expected Results Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned earlier this week at a senate banking enquiry that the current state of monetary policy does not require easing conditions, as the economy remains strong and the 2% target for inflation is key. However, he has referenced that unexpected moves in the labour market or a significant cooling of inflation could change the committee’s mind. “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly.” On this point, headline metrics for inflation land above expectations this week. On Tuesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) landed above expectations at 3.0%, rising 0.1% from the previous month. Overnight the Producers Price Index (PPI) landed above expectations at 3.5% year-on-year. This figure remains unchanged from the previous month and represents the inflation burden on producers in the US. Key data to come On the last day of February the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will provide further clarity towards the state of monetary policy heading into next month. PCE is the leading indicator used by the policy committee to measure inflation. Fear and greed currently reads 40 – neutral. Bitcoin Analysis The price of Bitcoin is currently trading within the January high and low range, and on the Bollinger band we are entering a period where the upper and bottom channel is compressing. Bullish Scenario In the coming days, price may see a sharp move higher as the Bollinger Bands tighten. If bulls regain control and reclaim the monthly open, they could push toward last month’s high. Bearish Scenario We could also with this compression in the Bollinger Bands, see volatility moving price to the downside. This may result in prices heading towards the January low. DISCLAIMER: The information is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as legal, financial or investment advice and should not be construed or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner or financial or investment adviser. No material contained within this website should be construed or relied upon as providing recommendations in relation to any legal or financial product.
by PHundal
2
GBP/USD dips on hot US inflation reportThe British pound is lower on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2400, down 0.37% on the day. The January inflation report was hotter than expected, giving the US dollar a boost against the major currencies today. Headline CPI rose 3% y/y, above the December gain of 2.9% which was also the market estimate. Monthly, CPI rose 0.5%, up from 0.4% in December and above the market estimate of 0.3%. It was the highest monthly inflation rate since August 2023. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3% from 3.2%, above the market estimate of 3.2%. Monthly core CPI accelerated to 0.4% from 0.2%, above the market estimate of 0.3%. The inflation report didn't change expectations about the March meeting, with the Fed virtually certain to hold rates. However, expectations for a cut in May have dropped to just 9%, compared to 21% a day ago. The economy is performing well and the Fed will be reluctant to lower rates again until it sees inflation moving lower. Fed Chair Powell repeated a familiar message in testimony before a Senate Banking committee on Tuesday, saying that the Fed "does not need to be in a hurry" to adjust policy. Powell said that rate policy remains restrictive but the Fed would be careful not to lower rates too quickly or too slowly. Powell deflected a question about Trump's tariffs and US trade policy but acknowledged that tariffs could lift inflation and complicate the Fed's ability to lower rates. The UK releases GDP on Thursday, with little change expected from the sputtering UK economy. Annually, GDP is projected to remain unchanged at 1%, while the GDP 3-month average to December is expected to decline by 0.1%, compared to a flat reading in the previous release. The economy contracted in the third quarter and may show a small gain in Q4 thanks to increased government spending. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2411 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.2368 1.2491 and 1.2534 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA