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Inflation

GBP/USD shrugs off mixed employment reportThe British pound has edged higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2697, up 0.08%. Investors were treated to a mixed UK employment report today. The labour market, which has been surprisingly resilient in the face of the Bank of England's tightening, is showing unmistakable signs of cooling. Employment fell by 66,000 in the three months to June, a huge reversal from the 102,000 gain in the previous period. The consensus estimate stood at 75,000. Notably, this was the first decline in job growth since August 2022. The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.2%, above the estimate of 4.0%, and unemployment claims rose to 29,000, up from 16,200 and above the estimate of -7,300. The one exception to the soft jobs report, but a critical one, was wage growth. Average earnings excluding bonuses rose 7.8% y/y in the three months to June, up from 7.5% and above the estimate of 7.3%. This was the highest level since records began in 2001. Average earnings including bonuses jumped 8.2%, compared to an upwardly revised 7.2% previously and above the estimate of 7.3%. The jump in wage growth will be unwelcome news for the Bank of England, as it indicates that the dreaded wage-price spiral continues to feed inflation. Higher wages are a key driver of inflation, and the BoE has warned that if wage growth doesn't ease, it will be forced to raise rates even higher. This could mean that the weak UK economy will tip into a recession, but the BoE considers that the lesser evil compared to high inflation. The BoE meets on September 21st and I do not envy Governor Bailey, who may have to cause more financial pain and raise rates. The UK releases the July inflation report on Wednesday, with CPI expected to fall to 6.7%, down from 7.9%. That would be a significant decline but it would still leave inflation more than triple the BoE's target of 2%. The BoE and investors will be glued to the inflation report and I expect the British pound to have a busier day. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2726. The next resistance line is 1.2787  1.2634 and 1.2573 are providing support
Long
by OANDA
Why Silver stands out.In the ever-evolving landscape of global economics, precious metals like silver, often serve as key indicators and safe havens. This week, we'll explore the factors making silver an interesting prospect in today's market. Current Macroeconomic Indicators: The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicates a slight increase in the US for July, registering at 3.2%, up from the previous month's 3%. Predictive models from the Reserve Bank of Cleveland suggest an impending rise for the August CPI. Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model projects a rise in GDP figures. Silver, Inflation & GDP: The above becomes important when historical data reveals that significant spikes in silver prices often follow periods of simultaneous rises in GDP and inflation. Notably, in years that saw increases in both indicators, silver recorded gains of 38% and 46% in 2009 and 2020, respectively. Conversely, 2002 saw a modest 2% return. Silver vs. Gold: A measure of relative value between the two major precious metals via the ratio of Silver to Gold, further substantiates the idea of a potential strength in Silver. The ratio is trading just off a trend support-turned-resistance and at the upper end of the symmetrical triangle. Resistance here can play out in the format of silver strengthening relative to gold. Yields and Silver: The longstanding inverted relationship of yield and silver can be observed in the chart, but the ratio provides some insights into the limits of this relationship. What’s immediately obvious to us post 2008 there has been a regime change in this relationship as yield grinded lower and silver remains elevated. With no immediate large catalyst on the horizon, it is likely the current regime will hold and hence, the ‘floor’ in this relationship is near. Meaning relative to current levels of yield, Silver is trading on the lower side. Equities vs ‘real’ economy: Beyond being a precious metal, silver's industrial applications—from automotive to solar panels and electronics manufacturing—make it a bellwether for the 'real' economy, akin to copper. Comparing the Nasdaq 100 against industrial metals illustrates a disparity between equities and the 'real' economy, positioning silver as significantly undervalued relative to peers like copper and gold. Positioning: Current market positions, particularly among net Non-Commercials, seem to favor silver with a growing bullish sentiment. Technical Analysis: A noteworthy observation is the persistence of the 22.5 level as a pivotal support and resistance mark for silver, a trend tracing back to the 80s. Prices currently thread above this level and remain supported by an uptrend that began in August 2022. Additionally, RSI points to oversold, and in the past 4 instances when RSI reached such levels, prices quickly rebounded thereafter. Against the above factors, we see support for Silver, on multiple fronts, such as economic cycle, relative value against equities, and underpriced when compared against gold. Hence, to express our view on Silver, we can set up a long position on the Silver Futures at the current level of 22.67 with a stop at 21.8 and take profit at 25.10 . Silver prices are quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per troy ounce and each 0.005 move is equal to 25 Dollars. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.atlantafed.org www.clevelandfed.org
COMEX:SI1!Long
by inspirante
$CNIRYY - Deflationary CPI- While ECONOMICS:USIRYY numbers remain inflationary, having the latest increase to 3.2% on August 10th, on the other side of the World from the second Global Superpower, ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came Deflationary at negative 0.3% on 9'th of August, just a day prior to numbers of ECONOMICS:USIRYY . Note that The Head of Federal Reserve, our pal Jerome Powell, stated that Feds do not see Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY coming down to their norm target of 2% CPI by 2025. Jerome still believes on a 'Soft Landing'.. How about another Joke, Powell !?
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
The Ultimate Inflation Hedge Awaits! BTC or Gold?Today, we will dive into the age-old debate: Is it gold or bitcoin that reigns supreme? Get ready for a wild ride! We all know that inflation can be a real buzzkill, eroding the value of our hard-earned money faster than you can say "portfolio meltdown." So, seeking refuge in assets that can weather this storm is natural. But which one should you choose? Gold, the classic go-to, or Bitcoin, the shiny new contender? Let's start with gold. Ah, the timeless allure of this precious metal! For centuries, it has been the epitome of wealth and stability. Its physical nature and scarcity have made it a trusted store of value, a bedrock of financial security. But here's the plot twist: gold's performance in recent years has been a bit lackluster. It's like the steady, reliable friend who's always there for you but somehow never quite dazzles. Enter Bitcoin, the enigmatic superstar of the digital world. This cryptocurrency has taken the financial realm by storm, capturing the imaginations of tech-savvy investors everywhere. With its decentralized nature and limited supply, bitcoin has become a symbol of rebellion against the traditional financial system. It's like that edgy, unpredictable friend who always keeps you on your toes. But here's the kicker: bitcoin's volatility can make even the most daring traders break out in a cold sweat. Yes, it has had its moments of glory, soaring to unimaginable heights. Yet, it has also experienced gut-wrenching plunges that can leave you questioning your life choices. So, is it the ultimate hedge against inflation or just a wild rollercoaster ride? Now, brace yourselves for the unexpected twist in the tale! We present an alternative that might blow your socks off: USDJPY, the forex pair quietly dominating the inflation hedge game. Buckle up, folks, because this one's a game-changer! The USDJPY forex pair, a combination of the US dollar and the Japanese yen, has been a powerhouse performer when it comes to hedging against inflation. It combines the stability of a primary currency with the potential for substantial gains. The Japanese yen, renowned for its safe-haven status, and the US dollar, the world's reserve currency, create a formidable duo that can weather the storm of inflation like no other. So, dear traders, it's time to take action! Don't just sit on the sidelines, wondering which asset will reign supreme. Invest in USDJPY and seize the opportunity to maximize your returns while hedging against inflation. It's time to step out of the gold and bitcoin bubble and embrace the surprising potential of this forex pair. Join the USDJPY revolution today and let your trading prowess shine like never before! Take a leap of faith, and you might discover the ultimate inflation hedge you've been searching for. Invest in USDJPY now and unlock the untapped potential of the ultimate inflation hedge!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
$CSSE pop expected 👁‍🗨️*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* This afternoon my team purchased shares of Chicken Soup for the Soul NASDAQ:CSSE at $1.12 per share. NASDAQ:CSSE announced in April that their annual shareholder meeting would take place either on 6/27/23 or around that date. There hasn't been an official announcement since April regarding this meeting but either way no new information is expected to be delivered at the annual shareholder meeting regarding revenue sales (which is what most investors want to see). My team however is still expecting a pop due to the current technical analysis of the chart. Good luck. Our Entry: $1.12 Take Profit: $1.47 Stop Loss: $1.03 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
GBP/USD dips lower as US inflation risesThe British pound showed some strength earlier on Thursday but reversed directions and lost ground after the US inflation report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2725, up 0.05%. The US inflation report was somewhat of a mix, but most important was that both headline and core inflation were within expectations. This meant that the reaction of the US dollar was muted following the inflation release. Headline CPI climbed to 3.2% y/y in July, above the June reading of 3.0% but shy of the consensus estimate of 3.0%. This marked the first time in 13 months that headline CPI accelerated, but the upswing isn't all that significant, as it was due to base effects. Core CPI ticked lower to 4.7% y/y in July, down from 4.8% in June. The Fed will be encouraged by the fact that on a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI posted a very modest gain of 0.2%, matching the estimate and unchanged from June. Inflation has fallen sharply in recent months, but the Fed will find it more difficult to bring core inflation down to the 2% target. The sharp drop in energy prices has sent headline CPI lower, but the core rate excludes food and energy prices. Inflation is being driven by services and wages, which explains why core CPI is so much higher than headline CPI. The inflation report has cemented the Fed holding rates in September, barring a huge surprise. The odds of a pause have risen to 90%, up from 86% prior to the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed may well be done with the current rate-tightening cycle, but don't expect to hear that from anyone at the Fed, which does not want the markets to become too complacent about inflation. The UK will post preliminary GDP on Friday. The consensus estimate stands at 0.1% q/q for the second quarter. If GDP misses the estimate and falls into negative territory, investors could get nervous and send the pound lower. Conversely, if GDP beats the estimate, the pound could gain ground. The Bank of England will be watching carefully, as it digests key economic data ahead of the next meeting on September 21st. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2747. The next resistance line is 1.2874  1.2622 and 1.2495 are providing support
by OANDA
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Traders Anticipating US Inflation DataHi Traders! Ahead of the US CPI data in a couple of hours, USDJPY is trading with momentum, and we could finally see the 145.073 resistance level broken if the inflation outlook looks positive for the US. Looking at the 1W chart, the market looks bullish; we are above the 20 EMA; last week's high was broken; and even with the weaker than expected US jobs report announced last week, the US dollar is still showing strength. If the inflation data is stronger than expected, there is a strong possibility that the market breaks the 145.073 resistance level. Above this level is the psychological 150 level, which is the next long-term target that the market will look to test if the bullish momentum continues. Above 150 is our Apex level at 151.946, which is our record high. Depending on the outlook in the US, we may see this level at some point this year. Though USDJPY looks bullish, the market is currently in a range zone, and the resistance at 145.073 must break to confirm the bullish view. On the other side, below is the 137.915 level, which has been our strong support level over the past few months. If the inflation outlook looks weak and the bullish US dollar's bullish outlook becomes bearish, this level will be the likely long-term target level for USDJPY. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
U.S. Economy Less Interest Rate SensitiveDespite the fastest rise in interest rates since 1981, and an inverted yield curve where short-term rates are much higher than long-term bond yields, the United States has not (at least yet) experienced the recession forecast by the vast majority of market pundits and economists. Why not? The relatively few contrarians that did not forecast a recession, including myself, had many reasons for a more optimistic view. However, the most critical reason appears to have been an appreciation of how the U.S. economy has changed over decades and become much less sensitive to interest rates. In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. economy was driven by housing and manufacturing. The only choice to finance a home was the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, provided by a savings and loan institution, that deliberately borrowed short-term from savers and lent long-term, taking considerable interest rate and yield curve risk. Further, there was no such thing as financial futures or interest rate swaps to allow for the efficient hedging of interest rate risk. Fast forward to the modern economy of the 2020s. The U.S. is an economy driven by the service sector, and services are considerably less sensitive to interest rate swings than housing and automobiles. Home mortgages come in every size and flavor, from floating rates to fixed rates. Mortgages are originated by specialists and then packaged and sold to pensions, endowments and investors willing to take the risk. There are no savings and loan institutions. Financial futures, swaps and options are available for efficient hedging and management of interest rate risk. In short, the U.S. economy does not dance to interest rates like it once did. Make no mistake, though; interest rate shifts have a profound impact on asset values, from equities to bonds, to housing. It is just that the impact on the real economy is much more subdued than it once was, and a rise in rates does not automatically mean a recession is around the corner. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by CME_Group
EUR, GBP Rebound Against Dollar as Inflation Trends DivergeEuropean currencies have been rebounding strongly versus the U.S. dollar since hitting bottom in late September 2022 during the Gilt crisis when yields on U.K. government bonds surged. The rally in European currencies accelerated in July 2023 following the release of the U.S. inflation statistics (Figure 1). Figure 1: EUR and GBP have rebounded strongly in recent weeks and months Recent U.S. and European inflation data are highly divergent. U.K. core inflation has climbed to above 7%. Eurozone core inflation has risen towards 5.4% while the U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) has been falling towards 4.8%, down from a peak of 6.6% last year. What’s even more remarkable is that the divergence between U.S. and European inflation rates is much stronger when one measures it in a consistent fashion. The U.K. and European Union (EU) use a “harmonized” measure that is consistent across Europe. The harmonized measure includes rents of actual rental properties but, unlike the standard U.S. numbers, does not assume that homeowners rent properties from themselves. Excluding the so-called owners’ equivalent rent (OER) from the U.S. numbers makes a huge difference. At the moment, the assumption that homeowners rent properties from themselves has exaggerated U.S. core inflation to the tune of 2.5%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics produces what they term an “experimental” harmonized measure of core-CPI that gauges inflation the same way as in Europe and therefore excludes the OER component. This shows core inflation in the U.S. to be 2.3%, far below European levels and trending lower rather than higher (Figure 2). Figure 2: Measured consistently, U.S. core inflation is half to one-third European levels This suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), which appears to be preparing a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike on July 26, could soon have its policy rate at more than 3% above the level of harmonized core inflation (Figure 3). Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE), which just raised rates to 5%, still has rates more than 2% below its rate of harmonized core inflation (Figure 4). The European Central Bank (ECB) has its main refinancing rate at 4%, 1.4% below the level of the eurozone’s harmonized core inflation (Figure 5). Figure 3: Fed Funds now exceed harmonized U.S. Core CPI by 3%, the most since 2007 Figure 4: The BoE’s policy rate is still 2% below inflation Figure 5: The ECB has its policy rate 1.4% below Eurozone core inflation The differences in the level of real rates (policy rates minus harmonized core inflation) suggests that the Fed may have overtightened policy and may need to reduce rates sooner than expected by market participants. By contrast, those same measures suggest that the European central banks may still be behind their inflation curve and may need to tighten policy even more substantially. Indeed, forward curves have moved significantly in the direction of this thinking in recent weeks and now price just 25 bps more in rate hikes for the Fed compared to 75 bps for the eurozone and 125-150 bps in the U.K. Elsewhere, the U.S. yield curve is much more sharply inverted than yield curves in the eurozone or the U.K. This may also lead currency traders to look past the Fed’s last expected rate hike and towards possible rate cuts if monetary overtightening produces a downturn in the U.S. sooner than it does in Europe. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Education
by CME_Group
USD Index road map with US CPI to come.Today's focus: USD Index Pattern – Ascending Triangle Support – 95.68 Resistance – 96.32 Today, we look at the USD index as price continues to trade rangebound after fighting back from a two-day decline. Could today’s CPI data break the deadlock and give the market some direction? Traders will be watching to see what today’s data could do for rate rise expectations. Could a move above expectations lift price above resistance and get the current trend back on track? Or could a miss to the downside confirm an LH and break the trend, setting off fresh selling? If we see the data come in flat, this could maintain the current price range that we are seeing at the moment. Keep an eye on today’s data when it’s released at 8:30 am EST, as it could produce some volatility if the figure comes out outside of market expectations. Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
NZD/USD slides on China's soft trade numbersThe New Zealand dollar has declined by 1% on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6044, down 1.01%. Earlier, NZD/USD touched a low of 0.6034, its lowest level since June 8th. China's post-Covid recovery has not gone according to plan, as weak global demand and soft domestic demand have weighed on economic activity. This message was reiterated on Tuesday as China posted disappointing trade data in July. Exports fell by 14.5%, worse than the 12.4% decline in June and the consensus estimate of -12.5%. It was a similar story for imports, which declined by 12.4%, down from -6.8% and below the estimate of -5%. The weak trade numbers from the number two economy in the world are dismal news for the global economy, particularly for New Zealand and other Pacific Rim countries that are heavily dependent on trade with China. New Zealand is China's number one trading partner and the soft trade report out of China has sent the New Zealand dollar tumbling on Tuesday. The markets are braced for more bad news on Wednesday, with the release of Chinese CPI. As China's economy weakens, we're seeing signs of deflation. The consensus estimate for July stands at -0.1%, after a -0.2% in June. On an annualized basis, the estimate for July stands at -0.4%, after a reading of zero in June. Deflation is a signal that China's economy is in trouble, which does not bode well for New Zealand. The Federal Reserve continues to send a hawkish message to the markets, which has helped boost the US dollar. Fed member Bowman said on Friday that the Fed might have to deliver "additional rate increases" in order to bring inflation back down to 2%. This would put her at odds with the money markets, which have priced in a pause in September and are looking ahead to rate cuts early next year. On Monday, FOMC member Williams said that he expects that the Fed will need to keep a restrictive stance "for some time", dependent on the data. Still, the money markets have priced in a pause at the September meeting, which would mark only the second pause since the Fed began raising rates in March 2022. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 6031. Below, there is support at 0.5964 0.6129 and 0.6196 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Will US Inflation Data Spark EUR/USD Recovery? Will US Inflation Data Spark EUR/USD Recovery? In Monday's early trading session, the euro showed a slight weakening against the U.S. dollar, influenced by a prevailing sense of pessimism following disappointing industrial production figures in Germany. As the largest economy in the eurozone, Germany's struggles in the manufacturing sector have been evident throughout the year due to decreased orders, sluggish output, and soaring prices. The EUR/USD pair attempted to recover above the 1.1000 mark, but it seems that sellers are gaining some control in the short term. Traders are now closely eyeing the next potential catalyst for movement in the currency pair, which is the U.S. inflation data set to be released on Thursday at 8:30 am (NY time). Market expectations point towards a July core inflation rate of 4.7% on an annual basis for the U.S. A significant downside surprise in core inflation, say at 4.5% or lower, might prompt a dovish reassessment of the dollar's value and could open the door for a solid euro recovery. At present, the EUR/USD is caught between two very tight technical levels after its recent rebound: resistance at 1.1010 and support at 1.1000. If the pair gains further strength, the focus could shift to the 1.1040 level. Conversely, if weakness takes hold, a pullback towards 1.0990 and a retest of 1.09655 may be in the cards.
by BlackBull_Markets
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 4, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz index experienced a significant drop as a result of the Inner Index Rally 4590 reaching completion last and this week's trading session, respectively. This caused our Mean Sup 4534 and 4507 to be eliminated. It seems likely that the index will continue to decline, potentially reaching our next Mean Sup 4403 and even Mean Sup 4330. However, it's important to note that there could be a Reignited Rally Resumption at the solid and strategic Mean Sup 4403 level, as this week's trading has been heavily oversold.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
The Silent Killer: Understanding Inflation's Impact Inflation is an economic phenomenon that gradually erodes the purchasing power of money over time. While it may seem like a minor inconvenience, inflation can have detrimental effects on individual savings , investment returns, and overall economic stability. In this article, we will explore why inflation can be considered a silent killer and delve into the reasons behind the growing interest in Bitcoin as a potential defense against its effects. 1. The Hidden Damages of Inflation: 1.1 Reduced purchasing power 1.2 Diminished savings value 1.3 Income distribution imbalances 2. The Role of Central Banks and Government Policies: 2.1 Monetary policies: Central banks use various tools, such as adjusting interest rates and printing more money, to manage inflation. However, these measures can sometimes have unintended consequences. 2.2 Fiscal policies: Government spending, tax policies, and borrowing influence inflation rates by impacting the money supply and aggregate demand within an economy. 3. The Case for Bitcoin as a Hedge against Inflation: 3.1 Scarce supply: Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency with a limited supply of 21 million coins. Unlike fiat currencies, no central authority can arbitrarily decide to print more bitcoins, reducing the potential for inflationary pressures. 3.2 Store of value: Bitcoin's limited supply and increasing demand make it an attractive store of value, especially in a world where traditional fiat currencies are prone to inflation. 3.3 Global accessibility: Bitcoin transcends geographical boundaries, enabling individuals to protect their wealth and access financial services without relying on traditional banking systems that can be influenced by inflationary pressures. 3.4 Economic uncertainty: In times of economic distress or high inflation, Bitcoin offers a potential safe haven for investors seeking to preserve the value of their wealth independently of traditional financial systems. 4. Considerations and Risks: 4.1 Volatility 4.2 Regulatory challenges 4.3 Technological barriers Inflation can silently erode the value of money, impacting savings, investments, and overall economic stability. While many traditional assets struggle to mitigate inflation risks effectively, Bitcoin can potentially serve as a hedge against inflation due to its decentralized nature, limited supply, and growing global acceptance. However, investors should carefully consider the risks and challenges associated with cryptocurrencies before making investment decisions. What do you want to learn in the next post?
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by UnitedSignals
6
Bank of Japan sitting on the fence on easy policy exitCentral banks packed quite a punch last week. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that raised policy rates by 25Bps, as was widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on July 28 unexpectedly decided to tweak the Yield Curve Control (YCC) band. The BOJ begins its withdrawal from YCC It will now allow some deviation above the long-term rate cap of 0.5% and has raised the rate for its 10yr Japanese Government Bond (JGB) fixed-rate purchase operations to 1%. They are effectively doubling their YCC band as it has outlived its purpose over the last seven years. This is despite Governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the BOJs patience a week prior to the meeting leading to 82% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting no change. There is a strong likelihood the decision was made because the market was least expecting it, similar to the last YCC policy tweak made in December 2022. As it helps avoid the inevitable speculation about the impact of the change on the JGB curve thereby forcing the BOJ to step up its interventions. It’s hard to determine whether the new YCC with greater flexibility and nimble responses in its purchase schedule will achieve the BOJs goal of sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% inflation target. Longer dated JGB yields are likely to stay under upward pressure until clearer signs emerge that Japanese inflation and wage pressure are easing again. Core inflation at highest level since 1982 The deflationary headwinds confronting Japan have been around for decades. Signs of change have been seen in firms’ wage- and price-setting behaviour, and inflation expectations have shown some upward movements again (as seen in the chart above). Spring in Japan is the season for shunto, the annual wage negotiations between company management and unions. This year some firms have already announced significant wage hikes in response to a tightening labour market and rising inflation. May wages rose by 2.9%1. However, a large part of the increase was tied to bonuses. Real wages fell by less but continued to decline by 0.9%2. Japanese headline inflation stayed at 3.2% year on year in July for three consecutive months3. However, core inflation excluding fresh food and energy, reaccelerated to 4.2%, marking the highest level since April 1982. Looking ahead, headline inflation will likely slow owing to falling global commodity prices and base effects but core inflation will likely remain higher owing to structural change in the labour market. BOJ struck a dovish tone with below target inflation forecasts The BOJ’s inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ahead are expected to slow further. The BoJ lowered its (median) forecast for FY2024 to +1.9%4 and left its FY2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%3, in effect justifying ongoing easing from the Bank of Japan. BoJ Governor Ueda mentioned at the press conference that there is still some distance to foresee 2% price stability target in a stable and sustainable manner given our inflation outlook for FY2024 and FY2025. This echoes a dovish narrative on the new YCC regime and a continued communication that the BOJ intends to in effect ease policy by still increasing the monetary base via fixed operations. More volatility beckons for risk assets The initial response to the BOJs surprise decision was a sharp rise in Japanese bond yields. Japan’s benchmark bond yields surged, extending gains above the central bank’s previous 0.5% cap. The yen whipsawed, falling more than 1% before reversing course and rallying to trade about the same amount higher. On Monday 31st July, the BOJ sprung another surprise announcement (2 days post the BOJ meeting) of an unscheduled bond-purchase operation to stem the rise in yields5. The BOJ intends to purchase ¥300Bn of five-to-10-year notes at market yields. This serves as an important reminder that the flexibility is intertwined with opaqueness, as the BOJ can intervene at any time (between 0.5% to 1%) which will continue to stoke volatility across risk assets. The BOJ has positioned the YCC as enhancing sustainability of its current accommodative policy. With Japan’s monetary environment likely to be kept relatively loose, the yen is likely to trade in a volatile range for the remainder of 2023. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 31 May 2023 2 Bloomberg 31 May 2023 3 Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication as of 20 July 2023 4 Bank of Japan as of 28 July 2023 5 Bloomberg as of 31 July 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:NIKKEI225
by aneekaguptaWTE
EURJPY in Focus: ECB Hikes and the BoJ’s Yield Curve ControlChristine Lagarde's remarks about an open-minded ECB, coupled with a robust labor market and persistently high inflation in the eurozone, continue to provide the ECB with reasons to lean towards hiking. While headline inflation may be trending downwards, core inflation remains steadfast in the eurozone. Following the meeting on July 27, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, elevating the key interest rate to 4.25%—its highest level since 2008. Interestingly, the U.S. seems to be leading the way in this regard. Inflation and core inflation peaked earlier in the US, and the Federal Reserve has been raising rates more rapidly than the ECB. Given that the EU's inflation rates remain higher than those in the US and that the unemployment rate in the EU is still low, further hikes by the ECB appear plausible—especially considering that the U.S. continues to hike, albeit at a more advanced stage. Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) garnered attention by widening its yield curve control band, signaling a move towards policy normalization. Yet, markets remain skeptical. The subsequent whipsaw move placed the USDJPY pair at levels higher than those before the announcement. The yield differential between the EUR and JPY interest rates exhibits a positive relationship, with the EURJPY appreciating as the yield gap widens. With the previous yield differential increase resulting in a 21% rise in the EURJPY, the currency pair's current 14% ascent seems to have room to grow further, particularly given the larger yield difference compared to past instances. However, it's worth noting the 1999 – 2000 period, where the yield differential increased, but market reactions lagged significantly. From a technical perspective, we observe the EURJPY breaking out of a 30-year symmetrical triangle, often interpreted as a bullish continuation signal. Upon closer examination, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the market is not yet oversold, and the moving average cross still favours upward trajectory. In conclusion, the ECB's potential inclination towards continued hikes, combined with market skepticism over the BOJ's recent moves, could lead to a stronger EUR and a softer JPY. A suitable strategy to capitalize on this view might be to take a long position in CME EURO/JAPANESE YEN Futures, quoted as Japanese Yen per Euro Increment. Entering at the current level of 156 with a stop at 152.5, and a take profit at 168, would provide a reasonable risk-reward ratio. It's worth noting that each 0.01 Japanese yen per Euro increment move equals 1250 yen. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
Long
by inspirante
Australian dollar takes a tumble as RBA pausesThe Australian dollar continues to swing wildly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, down 1.30%. On Monday, AUD/USD jumped 1% higher. There were no surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which paused for a second straight month and maintained the cast rate at 4.10%. The money markets had priced in a pause but the Australian dollar still took a nosedive after the decision, as the money markets have lowered the probability of a rate hike in September to below 20%. Recent key data showed that the Australian economy has cooled off, with inflation easing in the second quarter and retail sales for June falling by 0.8%. These numbers provided support for the RBA to take a pause at today's meeting. Still, the argument can be made that with inflation at 6%, double the upper band of the RBA's target range, there is room for further rate hikes. The RBA did not change its inflation outlook, predicting that inflation would not return to the 2%-3% target range before late 2025. Services inflation, which includes rising rent prices, remains sticky and this is a key concern for the central bank. Governor Lowe's rate statement said that future rate decisions "will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." This is a reminder that inflation and employment reports will play a key role in determining the RBA's rate path. There is speculation that the RBA is done with tightening, but with inflation still at high levels, Lowe's message to the markets was that further hikes remain on the table. In the US, today's key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector remains in the doldrums and has been in decline since October, with readings below the 50.0 level. In June, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.0, the lowest level since May 2020. Another decline is expected for July, with a consensus estimate of 46.8 points. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6697. Below, there is resistance at 0.6573 There is resistance at 0.6771 and 0.6875
by OANDA
The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Looks to be Bottoming OutMoney that has been parked at the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility due to the attractively high interest rates the Fed has set for money parked there has been on a steady decline since late 2022, and recently, this year we confirmed a breakdown of a Bearish Dragon, which led to a BAMM move down to complete a Harmonic M-shape. This then represented an influx of liquidity exiting the facility and effectively hitting circulation, which led to that money chasing assets and commodities. This chasing of assets and commdoities effecctively backed the 2023 Stock Market Rally. The target I had set for this move was down to the 0.886 of a Bullish Bat and now months later we can see that we came very close to it, but it would seem that rather than getting a full 0.886 retrace we are instead getting a confirmation-styled RSI reaction as price Bounces from the 1.618 Extension, which just so happens to align with an AB=CD formation it's made on the way down. I see this as an indication that the liquidity will soon stop flowing out from the facility and that liquidity will now begin to flow back to the facility, effectively taking money out of circulation, which would likely result in a decline in asset prices and a decline in the trading of Short Term Debt on the open market, which could then lead to Short Term Yields rising overall along with the US Dollar as institutions once again begin to lock up their dollars in this facility and chase yield rather than assets. Recently, I have been seeing a lot of weakness in the banking sector. That weakness may act as a catalyst for these institutions to once again park their money with the Fed, just as it did before. As always, my target for an ABCD is back to the Level of C, so we should see this rising back up about 30% before we can start looking for signs of this topping out again.
FRED:RRPONTSYDLong
by RizeSenpai
2
AUD/USD rebounds on stronger inflation releaseThe Australian dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6708, up 0.91%. The Aussie has rebounded after falling 1.25% last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.10%. The past two rate meetings have been close calls and that could be the case at Tuesday's meeting. The money markets, however, are squarely leaning towards a pause, with only a 14% chance of a hike, according to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker. Investors are basing expectations for a second straight pause on lower inflation and weaker retail sales. Both headline and core CPI eased in the second quarter, as inflation appears to be heading in the right direction. Retail sales surprised on the downside with a -0.8% reading in June, erasing the 0.8% gain in May and missing the consensus estimate of 0.0%. The RBA could surprise the markets with a hike, as inflation has fallen to 6% but is double the RBA's upper band of its 1%-3% range. As well, the labour market remains tight and the central bank is concerned that could lead to higher wages which means an increase in inflation. Tuesday's meeting will be the second to last for Governor Lowe, who may want to deliver another hike or two before his watch ends, in a bid to push inflation closer to the RBA's target. The RBA will release updated economic forecasts at the meeting, and investors will be especially interested in the inflation projections. The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge jumped 0.8% in July, rebounding from 0.1% in June and beating the consensus estimate of 0.5%. The upswing was somewhat surprising given last week's inflation report which showed a significant slowdown in inflation. The Australian dollar has moved sharply higher following the release. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6697. Above, there is resistance at 0.6771 0.6573 and 0.6499 is providing support
by OANDA