Get started

Inflation

AUD/USD hits one-month high, Chinese inflation eyedThe Australian dollar has bounced back on Thursday after losing ground on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6681, up 0.42% on the day. The Australian dollar touched a high of 0.6690 on Wednesday, its highest level in a month. The RBA surprised the markets with a rate hike on Wednesday, noting that inflation had unexpectedly risen in April and GDP in the first quarter was higher than the RBA had predicted. The RBA statement said that more tightening might be needed "to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe". Lowe was even more candid in remarks at a public engagement on Wednesday, saying that the Bank has been patient in the battle to get inflation back to the 2-3% target "but our patience has a limit and the risks are testing that limit.” Lowe appeared to be referring to the upside risk in inflation, and he could be hinting at a "higher and longer" stance with rate policy until inflation returns closer to target. Inflation has peaked, but at the current level of 7%, Lowe may be sending a message that inflation is falling far too slowly and he's prepared to keep raising rates, even if this results in a hard landing for the economy. China will release inflation data on Friday. Inflation is projected to rise to 0.3% in May, up from 0.1% in April. An improvement from the April reading would reduce concerns that China could be facing disinflation and may have to respond by cutting interest rates. On Wednesday, China released soft trade data, which showed exports fell by 7.5%. This has raised doubts about China's economic recovery. The Australian dollar, which is highly sensitive to Chinese data, lost ground following the release. AUD/USD continues to test resistance at 0.6677. Above, there is resistance at 0.6749 There is support at 0.6568 and 0.6496
by OANDA
Canadian dollar calm ahead of BoC rate announcementThe Canadian dollar is unchanged, trading at 1.3400 in the North American session. The Bank of Canada meets later today, and the money markets are expecting another pause, which would leave the benchmark rate at 4.5%. The BoC's rate-tightening cycle has been on a "conditional pause", which is another way of saying that rate decisions are data-dependent, especially on inflation and employment reports. The Bank has kept rates on hold since March and is expected to follow suit today, but there have been signals that the rate-hike cycle may not be over. First, April inflation report surprised on the upside after it ticked upwards to 4.4%, up from 4.3% annually, and rose from 0.3% to 0.7% month-to-month. The upswing will be of concern to BoC policy makers, as the central bank is intent on wrestling inflation back to the 2% target. The second concern is GDP, which hit 3.1% y/y in the first quarter, beating the BoC's forecast of 2.3% growth. Consumer spending has been stronger than anticipated, as many households have sizeable savings from the pandemic which they are spending now that the economy has reopened. BoC policy makers are concerned about the rise in inflation and GDP, and we could see hints about future rate hikes even if the Bank opts to pause at today's meeting. The Fed meets next week and with a blackout period in place on Fed public engagements, the markets are hunting for clues. Market pricing has been on a roller-coaster as divisions within the Fed over rate policy have made it difficult to determine what the Fed has planned. Currently, the markets are predicting a 78% chance of a pause, which would mark the first hold in rates after 10 straight rate increases. 1.3375 is a weak support line, followed by 1.3250 1.3496 and 1.3585 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD extends gains after RBA surpriseThe Australian dollar continues to roll and has extended its rally on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6659, up 0.63% on the day. The Aussie has sparkled in June, surging 2.4%. On the economic calendar, Australia releases GDP early on Wednesday. The markets are expecting a solid gain of 2.7% in the first quarter, up from 2.4% in Q4 2022. The markets were confident that the RBA would pause at today's meeting, projecting a 67% chance of a hike. I wrote yesterday that although a pause was likely, Governor Lowe has a habit of surprising the markets. Well, make that the second straight month that the markets have guessed wrong about a pause, with the RBA hiking each time by 25 basis points. Even with the surprise hike, the benchmark cash rate of 4.10% remains below most of the major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Australian inflation has been heading in the right direction, dropping from 7.8% to 7.0% in April. This is evidently not fast enough for the RBA, which has a target of 2-3%. Governor Lowe has been hawkish and said last week that the Bank will do whatever it takes to bring inflation back down to target so perhaps the real surprise is why the markets keep expecting a pause when Lowe keeps repeating that inflation is way too high. Lowe reiterated this position in the rate statement, saying that "inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7% is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range". Households and businesses will feel even more pain from the hike, but that's a price the RBA believes is necessary to beat public enemy number one - inflation.
by OANDA
Oil Higher from here?On Sunday OPEC+ announced: The 3.6mil bpd production cuts, will extend into 2024. Saudi's will cut an additional 1mil bpd from July 2023. The #oil #price opened higher on Sunday evening futures open. It now looks like we have an inverse head & shoulders on the price of oil, taking the price into the mid and upper $70s. This may pave the way for oil being in the $80s sonner than later. This will place pressure on the Fed as it will lead to even more inflation. Headwinds however is still the lomming recession in US, EU as well as the weaker Chinese markets.
NYMEX:CL1!
by chsmit
SPY Analysis - Market Breadth, Fed Rate Cycles, and InflationI measure the breadth in the S&P as the SPY (market cap weighted S&P) divided by RSP (equal weighted S&P ETF). The higher the ratio, the more concentrated the market, and therefore less market breadth. As can be seen, nearly every time the ratio has neared 3.0, the Fed has ensued with an easy money policy, and the SPY subsequently turned bullish. During these times, Fed rates, as well as inflation, were relatively low. There are several exceptions. in November and December 2021, the ratio neared 3.0 at 2.97, and the Fed ensued in early 2022 with an historic rate tightening cycle, on the heals of persistent inflation of 4.7 percent in 2021 which had resulted (and continues today) from the massive COVID stimulus program. The end result was the selloff in we experienced in 2022. Another exception was the period from 2015 to 2019, when rates were gradually raised, but maxed out at 2.40 in a relatively low inflation environment. This is not the environment that we are in today. Today, we have already had a 50 - 61% retrace from the low posted in October, 2022, and the market breadth is again at a low (SPY/RSP=3.00) . The Fed now has the option of pausing/easing and in effect pump a bull, but by doing so it will face a huge dilemma: with an annual inflation rate of 8 percent, and the largest budget deficit in modern history, a return to easy money will further fuel inflation. The other option would be to continue the rate hikes, and promote an economic collapse (starting with the banking sector), which will effectively bring the breadth issue to rest (along with the entire market). Neither of these are good options. Bitter pill...
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn13101
EUR/USD falls to 5-week low as inflation easesThe euro has edged higher on Thursday, trading at 1.0708, up 0.19%. The currency remains under pressure as the US dollar is flexing some muscles. On Wednesday, EUR/USD touched a low of 1.0635, its lowest level since March 20. There are clear signs of disinflation in the eurozone, as rising interest rates have dampened economic activity. Spain and France reported sharp drops in inflation in April, and Germany has followed suit, with inflation dropping from 7.6% in April to 6.3% in May. This was lower than the consensus of 6.8%. In the eurozone, inflation fell from 7% to 6.1%, below the consensus of 6.3%. Inflation has eased as energy prices have fallen sharply, with food prices also dropping. Most importantly, eurozone core inflation fell to 5.3%, down from 5.6% and below the consensus of 5.5%. The ECB is focussed on the core rate, which excludes energy and food prices. The drop in the core inflation in April will add support for the ECB to take a pause in rate hikes, as early as the July meeting. The US House of Representatives approved the debt ceiling deal on Wednesday. The measure sailed through, by a vote of 314-117. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later this week, with the government forecast to hit the debt ceiling by June 5th. On the employment front, JOLTS Job Openings rose to 10.1 million, above the upwardly revised prior reading of 9.7 million and the consensus of 94 million. This is another indication that the labour market remains very strong and if the nonfarm payrolls release on Friday is solid, the Fed may have to continue raising rates. Fed members are divided on whether to pause or hike at the June 14th meeting, and Fed swap futures are pricing in a 67% chance of a 0.25% hike at the meeting. There is resistance at 1.0753 and 1.0804 1.0675 and 1.0624 are providing support
by OANDA
1
The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Looks to be Breaking DownMoney that is being parked at the Feds Reverse Repo Facility due to attractively high interest rates the fed has set for money parked at the facility has been on a steady decline since late 2022 and we have now confirmed a lower high and are looking to break down below a Bearish Dragon trend line that could be the initial trigger that gets it started to going down all the way to an 88.6% retrace or lower even. One can only speculate that the money exiting this facility will lead to more trading of short term debt on the open market, which could eventually lead to yields coming down overall and for all of this excess liquidity to chase Equities instead as the value of the US Dollar declines due to the shock of all this newly added supply of liquid cash to the open market thereby causing a loosening of market conditions.
FRED:RRPONTSYDLong
by RizeSenpai
Are we approaching the last cycle expansion phase?The last cycle expansion phase or the euphoric stage, has already occurred between 2020 and 2021. Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Reference of Nasdaq: E-mini Nasdaq-100 & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
2
FXB downside after U.K. inflationAs a young trader (21 years old), I see my trading style as more of an art than a science. I don't understand patterns, and I don't use technical analysis. I am a macro trader. I take information from various sources (WSJ, Twitter, Investing.com, Trading Economics, ect.), and my instincts kick in. I understand where assets should be moving on data releases. The U.K. pound has been on a monster rally in the past month and change. Expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve to pause rates, with some saying cuts later into the year, has simmered the red hot U.S. dollar. The Bank of England on the other hand, is expected to continue hiking rates in the midst of the highest inflation in recent memory. When yields rise on the U.K. Gilt, that makes their debt more attractive to foreign investors, making their currency appreciate against the greenback. This past Wednesday morning, at 1:00AM (CST), U.K. inflation came in hotter than consensus estimates (8.7% actual versus 8.2% consensus), as did core inflation (6.8% actual versus 6.2% consensus). I would have expected the pound to appreciate against other currencies as their currency becomes more valuable as Gilt yields rise. The opposite happened, FXB has now fallen two consecutive days. I was building up my short position against the pound, but we must remember U.S. data sets can affect currencies across the globe. I exited my FXB position before the open today with the intention of hopping back in after said release. Tomorrow (5/26), before the bell, we have U.K. retail sales MoM, U.S. durable goods orders MoM, core PCE prices MoM, personal spending MoM, and personal income MoM. There's no telling where any of this data will land us, especially the U.S. data, and that is why I closed out of my position today. As far as I can see, we have no upcoming U.K data that would affect the pound. That is why I'm confident in this trade. The market will have time to digest what has transpired, and my hope is that it will come to the same conclusion that I have. I have full intentions of getting back into my trade after this data is priced back into the stock. The most important lesson I've learned in my very young trading career is protecting your capital and letting the trades come to you, don't look for them, they will find you ;) fyi - this is my first writing and any feedback is appreciated! Thanks
AMEX:FXBShort
by UnknownUnicorn22408063
1
GBP/USD edges lower, markets eye UK retail salesGBP/USD continues its downswing. The pound is trading at 1.2340, down 0.20% and is at a one-month low against the US dollar. The UK releases retail sales for April on Friday. On an annualized basis, the headline and core readings are expected to decline by 2.8% in April, which would indicate that UK consumers continue to hold tight onto the purse strings. Consumers are having a tough time with the cost of living crisis, with inflation at 8.3% and a weak reading could weigh on the pound. The US debt ceiling impasse remains unresolved, with the White House warning that the US could default on its debt on June 1st if no deal is reached in Congress. The markets are jittery and US 10-year Treasury yields have jumped to 3.75, up 1.1% today. The US dollar has also benefited from the debt ceiling crisis as investors have snapped up safe-haven assets. On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings put the top-ranked United States sovereign credit rating on "rating watch negative" due to the danger of a US debt ceiling default and we can expect market risk sentiment to continue falling as we move closer to June without a deal in place. The FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed remains unclear over future rate policy. At the May meeting, some members said there was a need for further increases as inflation was not falling fast enough. Other members argued that the economy was cooling and there was no need for more tightening. All the members agreed that inflation remains too high and the vote to raise rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting was unanimous. So what's next? The Fed meets on June 14th and appears to be leaning towards a pause in rate increases. The odds of a pause are currently 62%, versus 37% for a 25-bp hike, according to CME's FedWatch. Just a month ago, the probabilities were 70% for a pause, 8% for a 25-bp hike and 22% chance for a rate cut of 25 basis points. A hawkish Fed and solid US data have put to rest market speculation of a rate cut next month. Speaking of solid economic data, US Preliminary GDP rose 1.3% y/y in the first quarter, up from 1.3% in Q4 2020, which was also the estimate. On a quarterly basis, GDP climbed 4.2%, above the estimate of 4.0% and after a Q4 gain of 4.0%. Unemployment claims rose to 229,000, following a previous reading of 225,000, which was downwardly revised from 242,000. This easily beat the estimate of 245,000. The Fed will not be thrilled with these numbers, as it needs the economy to cool in order to wrap up the current rate-tightening cycle. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2375 in the European session. Below, there is support at 1.2307 1.2461 and 1.2529 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
2
How New Zealand's central bank have given up the fight... It's the 24th May 2023, 3pm local time. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have just increased the official interest rate by 0.25% to 5.50%, as expected. What happened next was not expected... The RBNZ announced that they currently have no intention of raising rates further and that the next rate change could possibly be a cut! What does this mean for New Zealand and the NZD? Central banks across the globe have been increasing rates over the last 12 months to tackle high inflation. In some countries, like the US, inflation has been coming down and is currently edging toward a 2% norm. For other countries, inflation has been much more stubborn. New Zealand is one of these countries with "sticky" inflation, which is currently sitting just below 7% and hasn't really budged over the last year. The RBNZ's main weapon to fight inflation is to raise interest rates. Until now, the markets have expected the RBNZ, along with other central banks, to keep raising rates in order to bring inflation down. New Zealand's central bank has announced they are no longer going to do this. So, what does this mean? Well, it means that high inflation could be a new norm for New Zealanders. The central bank is giving up the fight. High inflation has won. Inflation is here to stay! This is obviously not good news for the NZD, hence today's strong NZD sell off. High inflation combined with no more rate hikes, and poor PMI figures, may result in the NZD to continue to weaken longer-time. Could the NZD continue to sell off? The outlook doesn't look great for New Zealand, but this is not Brexit or a financial crisis. There are economic figures indicating good economic health for New Zealand, such as strong - relative to other global economies - GDP growth and low unemployment. The announcement of no more rate hikes could be a bearish driving force for the NZD, though. What does this mean for the rest of the world? The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strongly correlated to the NZD, meaning we could see the AUD fall also, which has already started. It wouldn't be a great shock, to see the Reserve Bank of Australia take a similar stance to their neighbours, which could see the AUD fall further. What could really shift the markets is if the RBNZ have set the tone for the rest of the Western world. Now that the RBNZ have given up, could other central banks do the same? This may result in downside moves for the Euro, British Pound, Rand, and other global currencies. How to trade the RBNZ's decision... The US continues to lead the way for the Western world with regarding to bringing inflation to a 2% norm. Canada is following a similar trend. Singapore is not too far off. Economies such as the Euro Area, the UK, Scandinavia, and South Africa continue to face an issue of stubbornly high inflation. These countries could take a similar approach to the RBNZ but it's way too early to tell. At the moment, rate hikes continue to be on the table for the foreseeable future. For me, the inflation trades seem obvious, buy the US Dollar and sell the NZD and AUD. If other central banks follow suit to the RBNZ decision, then selling the currencies related to those central banks is an obvious trade, especially the EUR, GBP, ZAR and SEK.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
GBP/USD dips after disappointing UK inflationGBP/USD is down for a third straight day, trading at 1.2374, down 0.33%. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.2369, its lowest level since April 18th. The FOMC releases the minutes of the May meeting later today. The closely-watched UK inflation report for April was a disappointment. There was some good news as headline inflation fell to 8.7%, down sharply from 10.1%. Hopefully, this is the end, finally, of inflation in double-digit territory. Still, the reading was above the estimate of 8.2%. There was nothing positive about core CPI, which is the more important gauge of inflation. The core rate jumped from 6.2% to 6.8%. Forecasters had expected core CPI to remain at 6.2% and the unexpected rise is clearly a big step backward for the Bank of England in its tenacious battle with inflation. Governor Bailey is speaking at two public engagements today, and we can expect him to make mention of the inflation report. The BoE has raised rates by 1% this year, bringing the cash rate to 5.25%, but inflation has proven to be persistent. The IMF has projected that UK inflation would fall to around 5% by the end of the year and drop to the 2% target by the middle of 2025. It will be a bumpy road to restore low inflation, and the BoE will probably have to raise rates again in June, unless core inflation surprises dramatically on the downside. US lawmakers continue to fight over the debt ceiling, as US Treasury Secretary Yellen has warned that the ceiling could be reached on June 1st, which doesn't leave a lot of time for an agreement. Republicans have said Yellen's date isn't accurate, but even if the deadline is a week or two later, Congress seems to be playing with fire to score political points. Investors are worried, and stock markets are down while safe-havens such as gold and the US dollar are higher. We've seen this movie before, and Congress has always reached a deal before the deadline. Still, we can expect risk sentiment to slide and the US dollar to gain ground the longer we go without a deal. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2375 in the European session. Below, there is support at 1.2307 1.2461 and 1.2529 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
NZD/USD unchanged ahead of New Zealand retail salesThe New Zealand dollar is coming off a strong week, with gains of 1.36%. In Monday's North American session, NZD is unchanged, trading at 0.6274. New Zealand releases retail sales on Tuesday. The central bank's tightening has hampered consumer spending and the markets are bracing for a decline in retail sales for the first quarter. Headline retail sales are expected at -0.4%, after -0.6% in Q4 2022. The core rate is projected to decline by 0.6%, following -1.6% in Q4. The retail sales report will be followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision on Wednesday. The markets have priced in a modest 25-basis point hike, which would be the smallest increase since February 2022, when the central bank raised rates from 0.75% to 1.00%. The central bank has not been shy about tightening, with the benchmark cash rate currently at 5.25%. Inflation in March from 7.2% to 6.7% on an annualized basis, more than double the upper range of the 1-3% target. The RBNZ is unlikely to wind up the current rate-tightening cycle before inflation drops substantially. There was some positive news earlier in the month, as inflation expectations eased in the first quarter to 2.79%, down from 3.30% in the previous quarter. This may have cemented a 25-bp hike on Wednesday, as the central bank pays close attention to inflation expectations, which if embedded can lead to higher inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that the banking sector turmoil could mean that the Fed will not have to raise rates "as much as it would have otherwise". Powell reiterated that inflation remained too high and future rate decisions would depend on data. The takeaway from Powell's remarks is that we could be close to the end of the current rate-hike cycle, but inflation will have to cooperate and move lower to the 2% target. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6256. Below, there is support at 0.6207 0.6326 and 0.6375 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
Bitcoin Bearish for rest of year. Buy in DecemberAs much as I love BTC for a insurance policy against government debt, it is still subject to human nature. Fear and Greed. And with proxy exposure to the function of all financial markets, liquidity. I want to believe that we have seen the worst that is to come for now but at this point it feels like sticking my head in the sand. How can we not see a correction in the markets that is one for the history books after the swings we have experienced over the last few years? Or was there just SO much liquidity in the system at basically 0% interest rates for a decade that even after an increase of FED fund rates (10 fold of anything we have seen, ever) we have just made up for lost time and its now time to carry on as per schedule. The trade: - Short any pops (ie retest of trendline) until later this year -All in again in Nov 2023 to Feb 2024 (debt crises should have sorted itself out by then)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by merchtank19
DXY rising puts pressure on commodities DXY on the daily chart hit a pivot top in early March and then 9 trading days ago a pivot bottom and reversal. While trending down, a weakening dollar in general supports rising commodity prices. The converse is likewise applicable. This week with increasing strength of the dollar, upward price action of commodities may be challenged. The predictive algo ( Echo indicator by Luxalgo ) predicts the dollar strength rise will continue in the immediate term future. The zero-lag MACD with its k/D lines rising and parallel is further confirmation. I conclude that positive price action in oil, metals and agricultural commodities may face dollar strength resistance while forex pairs containing the dollar may move in the dollar's direction, absent conflicting or confounding factors otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
5
USD/JPY - Yen sinks to 6.5 month low, is 140 next?The yen woes continue, as the currency has plunged a massive 400 points over the past week. In Thursday's North American session, the yen is trading at 138.52, up 0.60% on the day. USD/JPY hasn't been at such high levels since November 2022. All eyes will be on Japan's Core CPI release early on Friday. This is a key inflation indicator and could move the dial of the yen. The markets are expecting Core CPI to rise to 3.4% in April, after two straight readings of 3.1%. Inflation remains a key issue for the Bank of Japan. The new Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has continued the Bank's ultra-accommodative policy but has also hinted at taking steps towards normalization, such as adjusting the yield curve control (YCC) policy if inflation remains sustainable above 2%.  This week's GDP release showed growth in the first quarter was higher than expected, and that could raise expectations that the Bank will shift policy, perhaps in baby steps, in the near future. As for interest rate policy, we're unlikely to see any tightening before 2024. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on a panel later today, and the markets will be all ears. Powell has remained hawkish, saying that high inflation could result in further rate hikes. Powell has dismissed outright any rate cuts, but the markets still believe that the Fed will trim rates before the end of the year. JP Morgan weighed in earlier this week, saying they agreed with the markets that the Fed would cut rates, as the economy was likely to tip into a recession. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 138.42. Above, the next resistance line is 139.58 There is support at 137.08 and 136.42
by OANDA
1
CAD CPI could trigger next wave downThe previous CAD CPI data marked a significant turning point, with CAD having a 2 week hangover and the basket of major currencies getting a wild ride against the weakened CAD. Could we see the opposite this time around? USD is seeing significant strength against the basket but is starting to look ripe for a pullback. If we see another strong day for USD on monday, pushing USDCAD into the cluster of pre vious activity between 1.36000 - 1.36500, we could be primed for a significant pullback in USD strength and the CAD CPI might just be the catalyst for a major leg down to back below 1.34500. Of course, don't trade blindly, wait to see if the setup occurs, see the CPI numbers and how the market reacts. This is a very specific scenario, but if we are in that 1.36000 range when the numbers are released Tuesday, I'll be very quick to enter short if the market sees intraday downside momentum.
Short
by HayeTrading
6
GBPUSD Plummets after 12month HighAfter briefly breaking the 12-month high from May 2022 of 1.26670 this week, a wave of selling came in amid a big news week. The Bank of England (BoE) jacked up the UK Bank Rate to 4.5%, marking the 12th hike in a row. Despite two dissenting votes, the committee expects more tightening if price pressures persist. This could mean the rate peaking around 4.75% by the end of 2023. BoE expects the UK's inflation to drop sharply from April, but that they are ‘continuing to address the risk of more persistent strength in domestic price and wage setting, as represented by the upward skew in the projected distribution for CPI inflation.’ Meanwhile, BoE's forecast for UK growth is cautiously upbeat, predicting flat growth in the first half of the year and a slight uptick after that. Over in the States, the US Dollar gained strength headed into the weekend as investors look for safety amid uncertainty. This comes after a regional US bank, PacWest, reported a substantial 10% deposit drop and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report came in weak. From a technical perspective, tapping new highs briefly but failing to hold, leading to a sharp sell-off and retracing 2 weeks worth of gains in 2 days could signal a significant shift for the Cable ahead. We've seen a clean downside channel break, and - while a retracement seems likely after such volatile selling into the weekend - lower highs and lower lows could be the blueprint for the days and weeks ahead.
Short
by HayeTrading
2
EURUSD - A review of this week's newsWe're beginning to see a Tale Of Two Economies emerge, as US data this week shows the path of disinflation continues, albeit slowly, giving investors hope that the Fed's interest rate increases are making an impact. Meanwhile across the pond, all quotes from the ECB are warning that the fight against inflation rages on and further rate hikes will be coming. However, one major factor hanging over the Dollar is the news that there is "significant risk", according to the CBO, that the US won't be able to pay all of it's obligations as soon as the beginning of June, leading to the possibility of a default unless Congress votes to raise or suspend the Debt Ceiling. From a technical perspective we see EURUSD failed a number of attempts to break through at the highs and has now begun to create lower highs and lows with it's violent moves down in recent days. Key trendlines and support levels have been broken and all signs point to the countertrend move having begun. While we appear overextended on lower timeframes, it may be prudent to wait patiently for a new lower high for a viable short entry. It seems likely that we're witnessing a breakout to the upside on the DXY combined with profit taking and shift in sentiment for the Euro due to continued inflationary pressure in contrast to US inflation. United States (US): US CPI YoY 4.9% (Forecast 5%) : Consumer prices rose 4.9% on an annual basis, below forecast. US Core PPI YoY Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.4%): The US core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecasted 3.3%. US PPI MoM Actual 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous -0.5%): The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, slightly below the forecasted 0.3%. US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 264k (Forecast 245k, Previous 242k): The number of Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits rose to 264,000, exceeding the forecasted 245,000. This increase suggests ongoing challenges in the US job market. The “single biggest threat” to the economy now is the US hurtling towards a default on its obligations, said Karine Jean-Pierre, press secretary. European Central Bank (ECB): ECB: Consumers see 5% inflation over the next 12 months vs 4.6% in February : The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that consumers in the Eurozone expect inflation to reach 5% over the next 12 months. This represents an increase from the previous estimate of 4.6% in February, reflecting growing concerns about rising prices. ECB's Nagel says the "latest interest rate hike won't be the last". ECB's Lagarde spoke on Thursday, saying "the fight against inflation isn't over".
Short
by HayeTrading
2
The REAL S&PAs you might have heard headlines like "97% of the gains in SNP this year are made up by the top 15 companies" "Worst market breadth of all time" Here's a chart of the big 5 (FAANG with microsoft instead of google) Those "TECH" companies are seemingly ignoring bearish economics and skyrocketing on AI But...how long will it last when people are seeing 30% lettuce inflation and the like? (Not to mention NATGAS and USOIL sitting at strong support levels forecasting another possible runup on inflation) Who knows... I'm not an oracle but here's a chart shows elliot count and pre-distribution supply level Good luck
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by SwissMail
2
Will US CPI shake up sleepy yen?USD/JPY continues to have a quiet week and is almost unchanged, trading at 135.20. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions, which will be released later today. The summaries rarely move the dial on the yen, but this summary could be different, as it covers the April meeting which was the first chaired by Governor Kazuo Ueda. The BoJ did not change its policy settings at the meeting, but there are growing expectations that Ueda will take steps to normalize policy, which would boost the yen. At the meeting, the BoJ removed guidance on rate levels which committed to maintain rates at "current or lower levels" and announced it would review its monetary policy. Ueda said on Tuesday that there were positive signs in inflation and inflation expectations, and said the BoJ would end its yield curve control (YCC) policy once it was clear that inflation would "sustainably and stably meet our 2% target". The yen did not react to these comments, but it appears that Ueda is slowly but surely making plans to shift policy and gradually wind up former Governor Kuroda's massive stimulus program, which has been the hallmark of BoJ policy for years. The US release the April inflation report later today, and indications are that CPI remains sticky, which isn't great news for the Fed. Headline inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0%, while the core rate is projected to tick lower to 5.5%, down from 5.6% in March. The Fed has signalled that it will pause rates next month, and this has been priced in by the markets at 78%, although there is a 21% of a rate hike, according to the CME Group. A hotter-than-expected inflation report would likely raise the probability of a rate hike and provide a boost to the US dollar. USD/JPY tested resistance at 135.37 earlier in the day. Above, the next resistance line is 137.24 There is support at 134.50 and 132.97
by OANDA
📈BTC analysis near release of CPI data📉BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD Hey everyone, first take a look at my previous BTCUSDT & ETHUSDT analysis and positions. Bitcoin may experience growth near this month's CPI data release event if inflation conditions improve. The trend is still bearish and the price takes another step for further correction with each rise Don't forget to risk-free your position. Please share ideas and leave a comment let me know what's your idea. CrazyS✌
Short
by CrazyS
2