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Inflation

AUD/USD steady as consumer sentiment slips lowerThe Australian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6174, down 0.06% at the time of writing. The Australian consumer remains pessimistic about the economic outlook. The Westpac consumer sentiment index fell 0.7% in January from -2% in December 2024. This brought the index down to 92.1 in January, down from 92.8 a month earlier. The Westpac report found that confidence over employment has been falling and interestingly, a majority of consumers expect interest rates to move higher, despite signals that the Reserve Bank of Australia's first rate move will be a cut rather than a hike. The RBA hasn't moved on rates in over a year and the current cash rate of 4.25% continues to squeeze businesses and consumers. Australia releases third-quarter inflation on Jan. 29 and the central bank will be watching. That inflation reading could result in a historic rate cut if inflation is lower than expected. We'll get a look at the US Producer Price Index later today, with mixed numbers expected. PPI is projected to jump from 3.0% to 3.4% y/y  while decreasing monthly from 0.4% to 0.3%. Core PPI and is expected to jump to 3.8% y/y from 3.4% and from 0.2% to 03% m/m. If the PPI report indicates an acceleration as is expected, the money markets will likely lower their expectations for a rate cut. Currently, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point cut at the Jan. 29 meeting at below 3%  and at the March meeting at around 20%. Federal Reserve members are sounding hawkish and have signaled that the market shouldn't expect a rate cut anytime soon. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6193 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6209 0.6162 and 0.6146 are providing support
by OANDA
Levrage During this Metals Bull - finding the next Newmount?Relatively safe ways to gain exposure to leveraged plays in the form of mining companies. Many established miners are way too unbelievably low with current metals prices. Here we look at the technical perspective on why I am bullish on these cyclical mining stocks and why they could yield outstanding returns - which is to say now may be the time to scale in before they catch up to precious metals prices. FSM ASM SBSW
NYSE:SBSWLong
by Commodity_TA_Plus
USD/CAD in holding pattern ahead of US, Cdn. jobs dataThe Canadian dollar started the week with strong gains but has shown little movement since then. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4411, up 0.12% at the time of writing. We could see stronger movement from the Canadian dollar in the North American session, with the release of Canadian and US employment reports. Canada's economy may not be in great shape but the labor market remains strong. The economy added an impressive 50.5 thousand jobs in November and is expected to add another 24.9 thousand in December. Still, the unemployment rate has been steadily increasing and is expected to tick up to 6.9% in December from 6.8% a month earlier. A year ago, the unemployment rate stood at 5.8%. This disconnect between increased employment and a rising unemployment rate is due to a rapidly growing labor market which has been boosted by high immigration levels. Another sign that the labor market is in solid shape is strong wage growth. Average hourly wages have exceeded inflation and this complicates the picture for the Bank of Canada as it charts its rate path for early 2025. The BoC has been aggressive, delivering back-to-back half point interest rate cuts in October and December 2024. Inflation is largely under control as headline CPI dipped to 1.9% in November from 2% in October. However, core inflation is trending around 2.6%, well above the BoC's target of 2%. The central bank is likely to take a more gradual path in its easing, which likely means that upcoming rate cuts will be in increments of 25 basis points. The BoC meets next on Jan. 29. In the US, all eyes are on today's nonfarm payrolls report. The market estimate stands at 160 thousand for December, compared to 227 thousand in November. The US labor market has been cooling slowly and the Federal Reserve would like that trend to continue as it charts its rate cut path for the coming months. An unexpected reading could have a strong impact on the direction of the US dollar in today's North American session. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.4411. Above, there is resistance at 1.4427 1.4388 and 1.4372 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Sterling sliding, Fed worried about TrumpThe British pound is on a nasty slide and has lost 1.8% since Monday. In the European session, GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2294, down 0.53%. Earlier, the pound fell as low as 1.2237 (1%), it lowest level since Nov. 2023. The latest setback for the pound was Thursday's British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price index, which came in at -1% in December, lower than the November reading of -0.4% and the market estimate of -0.6%. This was the lowest level since July 2021. This points to weaker consumer spending, a key engine of the economy. The BRC has projected that food inflation will continue to accelerate, which will add to the squeeze that weary consumers are feeling from inflation and high interest rates. The UK government introduced a "tax  and spend" budget last October but retailers have argued that this recipe will lead to retail job cuts and higher prices. The Federal Reserve minutes of the December meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that policy makers were concerned about the upside risk to inflation, particularly due to incoming President-elect Trump's potential trade and immigration policies. Trump has promised to slap punishing tariffs on US trade partners, including China. Trump has also called for mass deportations of illegal immigrants. The minutes did not mention Trump by name but there was no doubt that Fed members had Trump in mind. Members noted their concern that inflation could rise due to "the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy". Members also indicated that the Fed was "at or near the point" of slowing the pace of easing. After starting the easing cycle with a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points, the Fed has delivered back-to-back cuts of 25 basis points. At the December meeting, the Fed lowered its rate forecast for 2025 to two cuts, down from four in the September forecast. After the December meeting, the currency markets reacted sharply to the revised forecast and the US dollar shot up against the majors. The Fed again sounded hawkish in the minutes but this time the US dollar showed little movement against the majors, with the exception of GBP/USD. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2292. Below, there is support at 1.2220 1.2393 and 1.2465 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Australian dollar falls as core CPI dips lowerThe Australian dollar is lower for a second straight trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6214, down 0.27% at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.60% but has pared much of those losses. Australia's inflation report was a mixed bag in November. Headline inflation rose 2.3% y/y, up from 2.1% in the previous two months and above the market estimate of 2.2%. This marked the highest level since August and was partially driven by a lower electricity rebate for most households. At the same time, the trimmed mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred core inflation gauge, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November. This reading is close to the upper limit of the RBA's target band of 2%-3% and supports the case for the RBA to join the other major central banks in lowering rates. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% at nine consecutive meetings but is this prolonged pause about to end? In the aftermath of today's inflation report, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in February at over 70%. Australia releases the quarterly inflation report for the fourth quarter on Jan. 29 and if inflation is lower than expected, expectations of a rate cut will likely increase. The US economy has been solid and this week's services and employment indicators headed higher. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1 in December, up from 52.1 and above the market estimate of 53.3. JOLT Job Openings jumped to 8.09 million in November and 7.8 million in October. The market is looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to drop to 154 thousand, compared to 227 thousand in November. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6214 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6182 0.6250 and 0.6282 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Swiss inflation declines, Swiss franc steadyThe Swiss franc is higher for a third straight trading day. In the European session, USD/CHF is currently trading at 0.9038, down 0.09% on the day. Switzerland's inflation rate continues to fall and that is raising concerns at the Swiss National Bank. Other central banks are worried about the upside risk of inflation but the SNB is worried about inflation dropping below its target band of between 0% and 2%. December CPI came in at -0.1% m/m for a third straight month, in line with the market estimate. Annually, CPI ticked lower to 0.6% from 0.7% in November, also matching the market estimate. Food and services prices decelerated, while housing and energy inflation rose to 3.4%, up from 3.3% in November. The SNB only meets four times a year and the next meeting isn't until Mar. 30. Still, the soft December CPI report has cemented a rate cut in March, with the markets currently pricing in a  25-basis point cut at 98%. Could we see a larger cut in March? The answer is yes, if inflation continues to decelerate. The SNB slashed rates by 50 basis points in December and the 0.1% decline in inflation in November likely was an important factor in the oversized rate cut, which was the largest in 10 years. There are two more inflation reports ahead of the March rate meeting and the SNB could respond with another 50-bp cut if inflation is close to the bottom of the 0%-2% target range. The US releases ISM Services PMI for December, the key services indicator, later today. Over the past two years, the PMI has pointed to expansion in every month but two, pointing to prolonged growth in business activity. The PMI is expected to improve to 53.0, following 52.1 in November. USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.9053 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.9097 0.9001 and 0.8957 are the next support levels
by OANDA
dogwifhat (WIF)Technical Analysis of WIF Coin 🟢 Key Zones and Market Structure: Main Support (Green Zone): The long-term market floor lies within the range of 1.393 – 1.482, a zone where buyers have previously entered with strong momentum. Main Resistance (Red Zone): The range of 4.015 – 4.346 serves as a significant ceiling, acting as a major barrier to new highs. Current Price Analysis: The price is currently trading at 2.061 and is attempting to break through the intermediate resistance at 2.178 – 2.268 with sufficient buying volume. The price's reaction to this level will determine its short-term direction. Bullish Scenario: ✅ First Target (TP1): If the current resistance is broken and the price moves past the 2.178 – 2.268 range, the next likely move will be toward the 2.821 – 2.989 area. ✅ Second Target (TP2): Should the price continue with high volume and break through TP1, the final target will be in the range of 4.015 – 4.346, which represents the ideal exit point. Key Point: Trading volume must increase during key level breaks; otherwise, the risk of a false breakout (fakeout) rises. Bearish Scenario: ❌ Stage 1: If the current resistance holds, the price may decline to the support range of 1.741 – 1.828. ❌ Stage 2: If the gray support level is breached, the next support target will be at 1.393 – 1.482. Key Point: A decrease in trading volume near key support levels could signal a deeper price drop. Volume Analysis: Volume increase near key zones (resistances and supports) is essential. A decrease in volume when attempting to break resistance increases the likelihood of a fakeout. RSI and Momentum Analysis: 📉 RSI Trendline: Breaking the descending RSI trendline, along with crossing the 50 level, could confirm the beginning of a bullish wave. 📈 Overbought Zone: If RSI enters the 76.86 – 80.48 range, the price may face corrective pressure in the upper resistance zones. Suggested Strategy for Professional Traders: Enter the market only after a confirmed breakout of resistance with high volume. Use a scaling-in strategy to minimize risk. Set stop-loss orders below key support zones to protect capital. Final Summary: This analysis identifies the key levels and possible scenarios for WIF Coin. Price action around critical support and resistance zones, combined with trading volume, will determine the future trend. For market entry, wait for confirmation of breaks or reactions at the specified levels.
by alizeynali69
2
Euro surges close to 1%, German CPI loomsThe euro has started the week with sharp gains. In the European session, EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0403, up 0.91% on the day. Germany's economy may not be in great shape. but inflation has been moving higher and the trend is expected to continue when December CPI is released later today. Inflation rose from 2% to 2.2% in November, its highest level in four months, and is expected to hit 2.4% in December. Service inflation is at 4% and core CPI at 3%, which indicates the battle to contain inflation isn't over. Once the locomotive of Europe, Germany's economy  has faltered badly and has slowed the eurozone's recovery. Germany's once mighty auto industry has been hurt by weaker Chinese demand due to the slowdown in the the world's second-largest economy. As well, China has gained a larger share of the global automotive market, at the expense of German auto exports. Unsurprisingly, Germany's manufacturing sector is stuck in contraction territory. Germany's services sector moved back into expansion mode in December, as the Services PMI rose to a revised 51.3, up from 49.3 in November. The eurozone Services PMI improved to a revised 51.6, up from 49.5 in November. Spain continues to impress with its economic data, as the Services PMI climbed to 57.3, up from 53.1 in November. This marked a sixteenth straight month of expansion and was the highest level of growth since April 2023. The US releases Final Services PMI later today. The market estimate for December stands at 58.5, compared to 56.1 in November. This points to strong business activity, which has been the linchpin of the US economy. EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.0331. Above, there is resistance at 1.0436 and 1.0564 There is support at 1.0203 and 1.0098
by OANDA
VeChain (VET)🔍 Technical Analysis of VET/USDT 📌 Introduction to the VeChain Project: VeChain is an advanced blockchain platform designed to enhance supply chain management and business processes. By leveraging blockchain technology 🌐 and IoT 📡, VeChain enables companies to boost transparency and efficiency in their supply chains. Its primary goals include reducing costs, improving product quality, and increasing trust in business operations. 📌 General Overview: The VET coin, a leading project in the blockchain space, is currently trading within an ascending channel on the weekly timeframe. This movement suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend; however, key levels require close attention. 📊 Recent Price Movements: The price recently hit the top of the ascending channel and underwent a short correction. It is now approaching the red support zone (0.03238 - 0.03948) and the midline of the channel. ✅ Potential Scenarios: Bullish Scenario 📈: If the price rebounds from the red support zone, it could rally toward the channel's upper boundary. A breakout above the ascending channel's resistance may pave the way for Fibonacci targets. Bearish Scenario 📉: If the red support zone breaks, the price could drop toward the channel's bottom or the gray support zone (0.01638 - 0.01966). 📍 Key Zones: Daily Resistance (Yellow): Range: 0.05038 - 0.05504 A breakout above this resistance on the daily timeframe opens the path toward the channel's top and higher targets. Fibonacci Targets After Breaking the Channel's Top: 1.618 Fibonacci Level: 0.08251 - 0.09507 2 Fibonacci Level: 0.11594 - 0.13874 2.618 Fibonacci Level: 0.19679 - 0.23327 Critical Supports: Channel's Bottom: The first significant support level. Gray Support Zone (0.01638 - 0.01966): Acts as the final line of defense. 🛠️ Entry Strategy & Risk Management ⚠️: Safe Entry: Enter after the price breaks above the ascending channel and consolidates above the yellow zone. Stop Loss: Initially, place below the red support zone. After breaking the channel’s top, adjust below the yellow zone. Risk Management: Adjust trade size based on confirmations. Risk only 1-2% of your total capital on this trade. 📈 Confirmation Factors for the Move: Trading Volume: A noticeable increase in volume during the breakout of resistance or support signals a strong move. RSI Indicator: RSI above 60 indicates a bullish continuation. Entry into the Overbought zone could lead to a sharp rally toward higher targets. 🚀 Conclusion 🏆: This analysis highlights that VET is at a critical and sensitive juncture. With proper risk management and confirmation of technical signals, this coin could present exciting investment opportunities.
Long
by alizeynali69
Where is the Stock Market Heading? Forecast & Analysis thread!Where is the Stock Market Heading? 📈📉 Stock Market Forecast & Analysis🧵 In this thread, we’re breaking it down for you: -TA on TVC:VIX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM TVC:VIX -Economic Data -Insights & Predictions Let's dive in friends! Not financial advice NASDAQ:QQQ Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box which is my personal strategy I use with the Wr%. As long as we stay within the confines of this Box we will continue to climb higher on the Q's outside of pullbacks. Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Held volume shelf -Wicked back above 9ema (BULLISH) -Ascending triangle patterns Measured Move has not been realized yet. $580 -Created a Hammer Candle which is a reversal candle found at the bottom of downtrends, pullback, or corrections. Had a Normal 6% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's! TVC:VIX First up we have the Volatility AMEX:SPY Index which spiked up due to the FED dropping a FUD Nuke on the markets heading and causing the largest one day volatility spike in 2024. But, as you see below we have fallen in line since that day. We have created a bearish flag pattern and broken down through the base and should continue to flush lower. Keep in mind 60-70% of breakouts (either direction) come back to retest the point of the breakout area. Could see this happen with FOMC minutes being released this Wednesday. AMEX:SPY Monthly Chart analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -We are above 9ema and smoothing avg. -Wicked off previous resistance flipped into support Most importantly we are still within our Williams Consolidation Box and thriving! $650 2025 PT! Weekly Chart Analysis: -H5 Indicator is GREEN -Wicked back above smoothing line -Created a Hammer Candle right above 9ema Had a Normal 4.35% Pullback and bounced hard around the S/R Zone. Everything I'm seeing is BULLISH going into CES2025 week and I believe we continue back to ATH's on the SPY! AMEX:IWM As I've stated in other posts the CAPITALCOM:RTY typically runs and plays catchup to the SPY and QQQ towards the end of bull runs and before the big corrections or crash comes. Weekly Chart Analysis: -At the bottom of an uptrend channel -Sitting on a massive volume shelf -At a massive S/R area -At the retest point for the Multi-Year CupnHandle breakout! With a Measured Move up to $306. Thats the same measurement of the CAPITALCOM:RTY catching back up to the $SPY. ECONOMICS:USCIR - Core Inflation Rate YoY Inflation is dead and falling like a rock! I don't hold any weight into what the FED was saying about inflation when he was the Grinch and spreading FUD. The FED is always to slow to do what is needed to be done and right now that is to continue to cut before things in the economy start to break due to higher rates. They raised rates to SLOW and they are choosing to cut rates to SLOW! What I'm seeing is we will continue to fall with small pockets of bounce backs in inflation on the overall down trend to sub 3 then sub 2 as you can see on the chart with the yellow levels. Overall Economic numbers are very positive and have been beating what the experts have been forecasting in December. We have some more data coming out this week and we will see if that trend continues. Like I said in a separate post, the FED has been talking about a boogeyman and spreading FUD but the DATA and NUMBERS show the BOOGEYMAN isn't REAL! Thanks for reading friend! If you enjoyed this analysis and forecast of the markets please like/ follow/ share if you feel I deserved it! ALL SOCIALS/ LINKS IN SIGNATURE BELOW AND PROFILE.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RonnieV29
4
NEAR Protocol NEAR Comprehensive Analysis of NEAR Protocol (NEAR/USDT) ✨⚡ Introduction NEAR Protocol is an innovative blockchain project that has gained a prominent place in the cryptocurrency market by focusing on scalability, high efficiency, and cost reduction. Today's analysis examines the technical trend of NEAR in the weekly timeframe and identifies the best entry and exit points. ✨⚔️ 1. Technical Analysis 1.1 Key Support and Resistance Levels Support: NEAR is currently at a key support level around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (4.832 – 4.993 USD), making it an important entry point. ✨ If this support is lost, the price may drop to the bottom of the range box (3.099 – 3.580 USD). Resistance: The first significant resistance is the yellow zone (5.369 – 5.731 USD), which poses a barrier to further price ascent. A breakout of this resistance on the daily timeframe could confirm a step-by-step entry strategy. The primary resistance is at the red zone (7.380 – 8.430 USD), overlapping with the top of the range box. A breakout above this level could trigger a bullish wave toward Fibonacci targets. 1.2 Bullish Targets (Targets) First target: Fibonacci 1.618 (11.921 – 13.771 USD) 🌟 Second target: Fibonacci 2.272 (20.273 – 23.379 USD) 🌈 1.3 Bearish Scenario If the key support levels are lost, the price could fall to the second gray support zone (1.715 – 1.940 USD). ⚠ 2. Indicators and Momentum 2.1 RSI Indicator The RSI is currently in the supportive range (45.63 – 49.42), indicating increasing momentum. If RSI enters the overbought zone (76.83 – 79.85), it could signal the start of sharp movements toward the aforementioned targets. 🔥 2.2 Volume Volume plays a key role in confirming resistance breakouts. If there is an increase in volume near resistance levels, the likelihood of a breakout is higher. Otherwise, the price may remain within the current range box. 3. Entry Strategy and Risk Management 3.1 Entry Strategy Step-by-step entry: Initial entry within the support zone (4.832 – 4.993 USD) Add volume if the yellow resistance (5.369 – 5.731 USD) is broken Final confirmation: Breakout of the red resistance (7.380 – 8.430 USD) and increase volume. 3.2 Risk Management Stop-loss: Place the stop-loss at the bottom of the range box (3.099 USD). Risk-to-Reward Ratio: A minimum ratio of 1:3 for the proposed entries. 4. Future Price Movement Predictions (Scenarios) Bullish Scenario A breakout above the yellow resistance and stabilization above it could push the price to the top of the range (7.380 – 8.430 USD). A move past the range top would start a bullish trend toward the Fibonacci targets (11.921 – 13.771 USD). Bearish Scenario Losing the 0.618 support and the bottom of the range will lead to a decline to the zone (1.715 – 1.940 USD). 5. Conclusion NEAR is currently at a critical level that may soon lead to significant price movements. By employing a step-by-step entry strategy and proper risk management, one can take advantage of this opportunity. Continuously monitoring trading volume and price behavior near resistance and support levels is key to success in this market. ✨ Always compare your analysis with other reliable sources and follow sound capital management principles. 🚀
Long
by alizeynali69
Frax Share (FXS)FXS Analysis 📈🔥 Introduction FXS (Frax Share) is one of the key cryptocurrencies in the DeFi space, offering a cohesive ecosystem with innovative decentralized finance (DeFi) mechanisms and a robust tokenomics structure. It has secured a prominent place among similar projects. Currently, FXS is trading within a descending channel and is approaching a significant PRZ zone (green zone). If this zone is broken, we could expect a strong upward movement. Let’s dive deeper into the technical analysis of FXS’s price action 🚀📊. Technical Analysis (TA) Key Supports: FXS is currently within a descending channel, nearing its upper boundary. The green zone, which includes both weekly resistance and the top of the descending channel, is a crucial PRZ (Price Reversal Zone). This zone is significant due to the confluence of several key technical levels, such as weekly resistance and the channel's upper boundary. If the price breaks through this zone 💥, we could see strong buying pressure enter the market, triggering a notable upward move. However, if the price gets rejected from this zone 🚫, we may see a continuation of the bearish trend or a deeper correction. Thus, this zone represents a critical turning point for determining the price’s direction. Key Resistances: If the green zone is broken, the following Fibonacci target levels could be reached: 1.272: (between 10.058 and 11.770) 1.618: (between 17.252 and 20.414) 2.272: (between 38.696 and 46.175) These levels are considered potential targets for the next upward move 🚀. It's essential to pay attention to trading volume in this zone, as an increase in volume would confirm the strength of the buying pressure and a possible breakout. A significant volume surge, especially above the average daily volume, can be indicative of the start of a larger upward trend. Predicted Critical Scenarios: 1. If the price is rejected from the PRZ zone: In the event of a rejection from the green zone 🚫, we could see a deeper correction toward the gray zone (between 1.541 and 1.813). If this area fails to hold, there is a risk of further correction toward the lower boundary of the descending channel ⚠️. In this scenario, it’s important to watch for reversal signals at these levels. RSI Indicator: The RSI is currently moving within a descending channel with a mild slope 📉. A breakout from this channel to the upside 💥 could indicate a move into the overbought (Overbuy) territory, potentially accelerating the upward movement of the price 🚀. However, if the RSI continues its downward trend, we may need to watch for lower support zones. Investment Strategy: Step-by-Step Entry: The best strategy in this situation is to enter gradually 🪜. You can start entering around support zones with reasonable volume and strengthen your position once the green zone breaks. This strategy allows you to manage risk more effectively and take advantage of any price rallies. Risk Management: To manage risk 🛡️, it’s advisable to set your stop-loss in lower support areas such as 1.541 – 1.813. This helps mitigate potential losses in case negative scenarios unfold. Volume Analysis: Trading volume is a key factor for confirming breakouts or trend continuations. If we see an increase in volume within the PRZ zone 📈, the likelihood of a breakout and a subsequent upward move increases. Any unexpected volume spike should be carefully monitored. Conclusion: FXS is at a crucial point in its price action. Given the technical analysis and current conditions, employing a step-by-step entry strategy and managing risk can help you take full advantage of this opportunity 💡. Additionally, paying attention to the PRZ zones, volume analysis, and RSI is essential for navigating this trade. These key points can guide you in making well-informed decisions for the future 🚀.
Long
by alizeynali69
Avalanche (AVAX)AVAX Analysis 📈🔥 Introduction AVAX (Avalanche) is one of the most powerful and prominent cryptocurrencies, created to address scalability issues and provide fast, low-cost transactions. With its impressive progress, AVAX has carved out a special place among other altcoins. Now is the perfect time to take a closer look at AVAX's price trend and identify key entry points to capitalize on this massive move. 💥🚀 1. Technical Analysis Key Supports: AVAX is currently in a strong upward channel 📈. The price has bounced well from the lower trendline of the channel, which serves as a strategic support level, and continues its bullish movement. After this rise, the price entered a retracement in the 0.5 Fibonacci zone 📉. This support range (32.19 - 35.83) presents an excellent buying opportunity and could be the starting point for a powerful rally. Key Resistances: On the daily time frame, the red resistance zone is a significant level. Breaking through this could signal the beginning of a larger bullish trend. If AVAX breaks this resistance, the next target will be the weekly green zone, known as the PRZ (Price Reversal Zone), which includes the weekly resistance and the middle line of the upward channel. This zone acts as a safe entry trigger for investors, and its breakout could trigger a new wave of buying. 2. Price Prediction Fibonacci Levels: If the bullish trend continues, the price could reach the 1.272 Fibonacci level (between 73.74 - 82.67) and even the 1.618 Fibonacci level (between 108.31 - 120.16). These are long-term target levels that AVAX could potentially reach on its upward path. 🌟 RSI: The RSI has risen well from the middle zone (49.23 - 52.83), indicating potential strength in the bullish momentum. 🔥 3. Investment Strategy Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Dollar-cost averaging is the best strategy in this market. This involves entering at key support zones like 32.19 - 35.83, and if the price rises to higher levels, gradually adding to your position with the right volume. This strategy allows you to ride the market’s movement at every stage. 💪 Proper Volume: Never forget to monitor trading volume carefully at support and resistance levels. If market volume is insufficient, the price may easily retrace and move back towards the lower part of the channel. Therefore, entering with proper volume and conducting precise analysis is crucial for your success. 📊 4. Risk Management Stop-Loss and Risk/Reward Ratio: It is recommended to set your stop-loss (SL) at support levels such as 19.37 - 21.87 to prevent large losses. The risk/reward ratio should be at least 1:2, meaning the potential profit should be twice the amount of risk. 💰 Critical Scenario Prediction: If the support at the lower part of the upward channel is broken, the price could retrace to the gray support zone (19.37 - 21.87). Always be prepared for market crises and make decisions based on them. ⚠️ 5. Volume Analysis Volume Analysis: Trading volume is one of the most important indicators for confirming trends. If we see increased volume at support and resistance zones, it may signal the possibility of a strong price movement. Therefore, carefully monitoring volume helps confirm the validity of price movements. 🔍 Conclusion AVAX is in a great position for growth, and with careful analysis, dollar-cost averaging, and proper risk management, investors can take full advantage of this opportunity. Pay close attention to support and resistance levels, and enter the market with suitable volume when necessary. Always stay alert to price trends and volume fluctuations to capitalize on potential profits. 💡
Long
by alizeynali69
Japan's corporate service inflation rises, yen steadyThe Japanese yen is showing little movement on Christmas Day. Japanese markets are open but with most global markets closed for the holiday, the currency markets will be very quiet today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.29, up 0.08% on the day. Japanese inflation indicators have been heading higher and the upswing was repeated on Wednesday as Japan's corporate service price index (CSPI) climbed 3.0% in November. This marked a second straight month that CSPI has accelerated, after a 2.9% gain in October. CSPI measures the price that companies charge each other for services and is a leading indicator of service-sector inflation, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan. The rise in CSPI supports the case that wages are rising and businesses are passing higher costs to consumers. This increase in demand-driven inflation is exactly what the BoJ wants to see before raising interest rates. The BoJ has hinted that further rate hikes are coming but hasn't provided any hints about the timing. There were some expectations of a rate hike at last week's meeting but the central bank stayed on the sidelines and Governor Ueda sounded dovish, saying that inflation was increasing "at a moderate rate" and the BoJ could take its time raising rates. Is Ueda throwing up a smoke screen to keep speculators away when the BoJ is in fact planning a rate hike in the next month or two? Perhaps. Inflation has been trending higher and the yen is falling fast, plunging 9.5% since Oct. 1. The yen pushed past the symbolic 160 level in July and could do so again. If the BoJ is genuinely concerned with the rapid descent of the yen, it will have to consider a rate hike or take more extreme action and intervene in the currency markets to prop up the ailing yen. There is resistance at 157.41 and 157.66 USD/JPY tested support at 157.15 and 156.90 earlier. Below, there is support at 156.64
by OANDA
USD/JPY calm as BoJ Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.33, up 0.11% on the day at the time of writing. The yen is having a dreadful time as it continues to lose ground against the strong US dollar. Since Oct. 1, the yen has plunged 9.5% and the yen's woes could force the Bank of Japan to intervene on the currency markets in order to prop up the ailing currency. The BoJ Core CPI index, which is closely watched by the central bank, rose to 1.7% y/y in November, up from 1.5% in October and above the market estimate or 1.5%. This release follows last week's national headline inflation release, which jumped to 2.9% in November from 2.3% in October. This was the highest level since October 2023.  The gain was driven by sharp increases in food and electricity prices. Notably, core CPI, which excludes food, rose from 2.6% to 2.7% and core-core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed from 2.3% to 2.4%. Any way you cut it, inflation is moving higher and that has raised expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in early 2025. The BoJ held rates at last week's meeting and BOJ Governor Ueda said that since underlying inflation was only increasing "at a moderate pace", the BoJ could take its time in raising rates. However, with inflation rising and the yen pushing closer to the 160 level, the BoJ could respond with a rate hike as early as January. The BoJ is also concerned with the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged to slap tariffs on US trading partners. Bank policy makers will be nervously watching if Trump moves ahead with tariffs or is his bark worse than his bite. The BoJ meets next on Jan.24, a day after Trump is sworn into office. There is resistance at 157.51 and 157.86 156.93 and 156.58 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
The Sandbox (SAND)SAND/USDT Analysis 📊 Recently, SAND has demonstrated significant performance, managing to shift its trajectory from a descending channel and reach the top of an ascending channel. Below is a more detailed analysis of the current situation and potential scenarios: ⚖️ Current Situation: Breakout from the Descending Channel: SAND has exited the descending channel and is currently undergoing a pullback. This move started from the support zone (0.19 – 0.23 USD). Current Correction: The upward wave has corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci zone (0.45 – 0.49 USD). This level is a key zone for the continuation of the trend. Red Resistance Zone: The price is currently facing significant resistance in the range of (0.8 – 0.99 USD). A successful close above this level is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend. 🔍 Upcoming Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If the price manages to break and sustain above the red resistance zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD), the following targets become achievable: 1.618 Fibonacci: 1.41 – 1.69 USD 2.272 Fibonacci: 2.42 – 2.9 USD 2.618 Fibonacci: 3.94 – 4.98 USD High volume entry during the breakout of the red resistance zone is essential. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break through the red resistance zone, a deeper correction is likely: 0.618 Fibonacci level: 0.4 – 0.43 USD Green PRZ Zone: If the 0.618 Fibonacci level is lost, the price might drop to this zone, which includes daily resistance and the middle line of the channel. ⚙️ RSI Indicator: RSI Support: The trendline connecting the RSI lows can serve as support during a price correction. The range (33.88 – 39.26) is key for RSI support. Entry into Overbought Zone: RSI movement towards the overbought zone can push the price toward higher targets. Overextended zones (86.33 – 92.15) are accessible. RSI Middle Line: This line could act as support and help stabilize the uptrend. ⚡️ Key Points: Red Resistance Zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD): Sustaining above this zone is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend. Formation of Strong Bullish Candles and Significant Volume: Strong bullish candlestick formations and a sharp increase in volume can confirm the breakout of this resistance. Volume Consideration: High volume entry during the breakout of the resistance zone is a positive signal. Price Behavior at the 0.5 Fibonacci Level: This level serves as the primary initial support. PRZ Support Zone: In case of a correction, this zone (overlapping with daily resistance and the middle line of the channel) could prevent further price declines. 🔔 Summary: The technical analysis of SAND indicates that after breaking out of the descending channel, the price is at a critical stage. A breakout above the red resistance zone (0.8 – 0.99 USD) could open the path for higher targets. However, traders should pay close attention to price behavior around key support and resistance zones and should not neglect risk management. 🟠 Practical Suggestions: For Entering a Trade: Wait for a breakout of the red resistance zone along with high volume. Risk Management: Diversify your capital into multiple parts and set stop-loss orders below key support levels. Stay Updated: Given the constantly changing market conditions, staying updated with new analyses is essential. ⏰ Stay tuned for the next updates!
Long
by alizeynali69
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES Would you have believed it If you were told a year ago. When every expert was predicting a recession. (which will come of course but when no one is expecting it ) So the conditions are set for a melt up I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next (grab some bitcoin miners!) ENJOY THE NEXT few months! #CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation Which is when the next slowdown will hit. This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend. The stimulus was unprecedented Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago We are near the end! But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BallaJi
2
$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR (December/2024) source: Bank of England The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence. The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$JPINTR - Japan's Interest RateECONOMICS:JPINTR (Devember/2024) source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting of the year, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and meeting market consensus. The vote was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25bps increase. Thursday's decision came despite the US implementing its third rate cut this year, as the BoJ needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly US economic policies under Donald Trump and next year's wage outlook. The board adhered to its assessment that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. Private consumption continued its upward trend, aided by improving corporate profits and business spending. Meanwhile, exports and industrial output remained relatively flat. On inflation, the YoY figures have ranged between 2.0% and 2.5%, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations showed a moderate rise, and the underlying CPI is expected to add gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025 The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure. From central bank interventions to geopolitical developments and technological advancements, every corner of the financial world experienced notable activity. In this article, we will take a detailed look at the major trends and events shaping the global economy in 2024 and provide insights into what lies ahead in 2025. Inflation and Interest Rates: A Balancing Act In 2024, inflation showed signs of moderation globally. In the United States, it stabilised around 2.7%, marking a notable shift that bolstered market confidence and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the broader economy. Throughout the year, rate cuts dominated monetary policy discussions. Following the unprecedented rate hikes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks began scaling back rates. However, they had to walk a tightrope between a complex landscape of lower but still stubborn inflation and resilient labour markets and the necessity for monetary easing. The magnitude and pace of these cuts varied significantly, reflecting differences in economic conditions across regions and creating complex relationships in the forex market. Analysts widely anticipate that policymakers will adopt a more measured approach to easing monetary policy as 2025 unfolds. Most developed market central banks, excluding Japan, are expected to reduce interest rates to neutral levels by the year's end. However, if economic conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there is potential for central banks to push rates below neutral to support growth. The Fed, in particular, faces a delicate balancing act, as it must carefully navigate potential policy developments—such as trade tariffs—that may not ultimately materialise. At the same time, any resurgence in inflationary pressures could prompt a shift toward a more restrictive rate trajectory in 2025 and beyond, further complicating the policy landscape. Forex Market: A Year of Divergence Currency markets in 2024 were shaped by a combination of monetary policy shifts, economic recovery efforts, and political developments. The US dollar experienced a rollercoaster year, initially depreciating against major currencies as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it rebounded toward the end of the year, influenced by post-election optimism and expectations of protectionist trade policies under the Trump administration. The British pound demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, supported by the Bank of England’s patient and measured approach to monetary policy. Despite potential rate cuts, the pound maintained its strength, reflecting confidence in the UK’s economic fundamentals. In contrast, the euro faced significant headwinds. The ECB’s aggressive easing measures widened interest rate differentials with the pound and the dollar, weakening the euro. By the end of the year, trade uncertainty stemming from potential US tariffs weighed heavily on the euro, given the Eurozone’s dependence on global trade. The Japanese yen experienced mixed fortunes, bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This move provided much-needed support for the yen, although concerns about potential US trade policies created downside risks. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars saw fluctuations driven by interest rate differentials, global trade dynamics and their respective economies' ties to the United States and China. Analysts caution that President Trump’s tariff policies could intensify the overvaluation of the US dollar in 2025, potentially heightening the risk of global financial instability. The prospect of trade restrictions may add complexity to an already volatile economic landscape. Commodity Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Oil Struggles Commodity markets have seen a resurgence in investor interest. According to data from WisdomTree and Bloomberg, the proportion of investors allocating resources to commodities rose to 79% in 2024, compared to 71% in 2023—an expected rebound after a challenging year for commodities in 2023. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, emerged as top performers. As of time of the writing on 11th December, gold prices surged by over 30%, while silver outpaced gold with a 35% gain. Several factors drove these impressive performances, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, and strong demand from emerging market central banks. According to analysts, these factors should continue supporting precious metals in 2025. Natural gas prices also experienced significant growth, rising 30% to 50% across major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Colder weather forecasts have fueled demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. Analysts suggest that this bullish sentiment in gas markets is likely to persist through the winter, with prices unlikely to see significant declines until well into 2025. However, high gas prices are expected to increase power costs globally, straining fragile economic growth in key regions such as China and Europe while rekindling inflationary concerns. Oil, however, faced a challenging year despite geopolitical crises and production cuts. One of the reasons is a weak demand, particularly from China. In the United States, gasoline inventories exceeded long-term seasonal levels. According to analysts, the growing transition to electric vehicles in developed markets represents a long-term challenge for oil demand. Although some analysts anticipate a recovery in 2025 as OPEC+ production cuts take effect and geopolitical risks persist. Stock Markets: Tech Leads the Charge The US stock market delivered robust performances in 2024, reaching new record highs, with the technology sector at the forefront. Innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) played a pivotal role in driving growth, with major companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon reporting strong earnings. This momentum boosted broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recording gains of 28.57% and 27.4%, respectively, as of 10th December. The broader market also benefited from declining inflation, interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. These factors may contribute to the stock market growth in 2025. However, stretched valuations temper some of the optimism, and concerns about potential trade tariffs add a layer of uncertainty. Looking Ahead to 2025: Key Market Drivers As we look ahead to 2025, several critical factors are poised to influence the direction of financial markets. Central Bank Policies Central banks will remain pivotal in shaping financial markets in 2025. The balance between maintaining growth and addressing inflationary pressures will be a key theme for central banks throughout the year, influencing the strength of equity markets. Interest rate differentials will play a significant role in determining currency movements. Global Economic Recovery The global economy is expected to continue rebounding from pandemic effects. GDP growth, employment trends, and trade balances will be key factors influencing financial markets. Trade War Uncertainty Potential trade tariffs pose a significant risk. The scope, products, and geographies targeted will determine the impact on global GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Any escalation in trade tensions could disrupt markets and strain economic recovery. Artificial Intelligence and Innovation AI and emerging technologies may drive productivity gains, offering an upside to global growth. By boosting efficiency and reducing costs, AI could also exert disinflationary pressure, influencing economic dynamics in the long term. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical risks, including trade disputes and political conflicts, remain unpredictable but could disrupt markets. Final Thoughts: Embracing Opportunities Amid Volatility The year 2024 brought its share of challenges and opportunities, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of global markets. From navigating geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policies to embracing the transformative potential of technologies like artificial intelligence, market participants faced a dynamic landscape. Looking ahead to 2025, the horizon offers new opportunities. Continued advancements in innovation, shifts in economic policies, and the resolution of key global tensions could set the stage for exciting market fluctuations. Use the new year to test your skills and look for new opportunities! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2