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Inflation

Present and On-Going Forecast Real Estate Market The formula that I worked on for weeks, finally I can put the puzzles together a chart of an ongoing real estate chart and what I provided is an economic formula that's used to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and mortgage rates. Here's what each part of the formula means in more detail: MSPUS: This variable represents the median sales price of houses sold in the United States. The median sales price is the price at which half the houses sold for more and half sold for less. MORTGAGE30US: This variable represents the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the United States. A mortgage is a loan that people take out to buy a house, and the interest rate on the mortgage can affect the overall cost of the house over time. USCPI: This variable represents the United States Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of inflation. Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and it can affect the value of money over time. The formula itself is a bit complicated, but it's essentially using these variables to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and the impact of mortgage rates. Here's how the formula works: 1+MORTGAGE30US/100 calculates the interest rate on the mortgage, expressed as a decimal. ^0.08333 raises this interest rate to the power of 0.08333, which represents the monthly interest rate. 1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333-1 calculates the mortgage payment factor, which is the amount by which the median sales price of houses sold needs to be adjusted based on the mortgage interest rate. 1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333 calculates the present value of the mortgage payments. (1-(1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333)^360) calculates the total value of all of these mortgage payments by taking the present value of each payment, summing them over the 360 months of the mortgage, and then subtracting that sum from 1. USCPI*300 adjusts the value of the expression by the consumer price index multiplied by 300, which accounts for the effects of inflation over time. MSPUS is then multiplied by the result of steps 3, 5, and 6 to calculate the adjusted median sales price of houses sold. When you put it all together, the formula is a complex expression that takes into account mortgage rates, inflation, and a value in US dollars, and calculates a value that has been adjusted by these factors, By using this formula, you can get a more accurate picture of the real cost of buying a house over time, which can help them make more informed decisions about the housing market. The formula that I worked on for weeks, finally I can put the puzzles together a chart of an ongoing real estate chart and what I provided is an economic formula that's used to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and mortgage rates. Here's what each part of the formula means in more detail: MSPUS: This variable represents the median sales price of houses sold in the United States. The median sales price is the price at which half the houses sold for more and half sold for less. MORTGAGE30US: This variable represents the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in the United States. A mortgage is a loan that people take out to buy a house, and the interest rate on the mortgage can affect the overall cost of the house over time. USCPI: This variable represents the United States Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of inflation . Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and it can affect the value of money over time. The formula itself is a bit complicated, but it's essentially using these variables to adjust the median sales price of houses sold in the US for inflation and the impact of mortgage rates. Here's how the formula works: 1+MORTGAGE30US/100 calculates the interest rate on the mortgage, expressed as a decimal. ^0.08333 raises this interest rate to the power of 0.08333, which represents the monthly interest rate. 1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333-1 calculates the mortgage payment factor, which is the amount by which the median sales price of houses sold needs to be adjusted based on the mortgage interest rate. 1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333 calculates the present value of the mortgage payments. (1-(1/(1+MORTGAGE30US/100)^0.08333)^360) calculates the total value of all of these mortgage payments by taking the present value of each payment, summing them over the 360 months of the mortgage, and then subtracting that sum from 1. USCPI*300 adjusts the value of the expression by the consumer price index multiplied by 300, which accounts for the effects of inflation over time. MSPUS is then multiplied by the result of steps 3, 5, and 6 to calculate the adjusted median sales price of houses sold. When you put it all together, the formula is a complex expression that takes into account mortgage rates, inflation , and a value in US dollars, and calculates a value that has been adjusted by these factors, By using this formula, you can get a more accurate picture of the real cost of buying a house over time, which can help them make more informed decisions about the housing market.
FRED:MSPUS
by riestas241
2
SPX Monthly - Adjusted for Real InflationThe assumptions are that money printing is real inflation as is often stated by Peter Schiff and M2 money supply is a good measure of the amount of money that has been printed into circulation. This data goes back to 1959 and makes the dot com bubble in 2000 look much more exuberant than current price levels. There is room for downside from here as the 1966 to 1974 decline and 2008 crash suggest. The chart also suggests that there has been no real stock market growth since the 1960s. It should be noted that the stock market was a good place to keep capital as an inflation hedge and a source of dividends and that cash kept over this time period would have lost pretty close to all of its value while earning no dividends. It demonstrates how important it is to not let cash sit in a bank and collect dust and to be financially literate. The central bank system punishes savers and forces participation in markets. The S&P can see a 75% increase or a 68% decrease from here and still be within its historical range. I’m leaning more bullish right now but these are very uncertain times, with the Fed having raised the fed funds rate to 4.75% and the stock market having declined for all of 2022. Nothing would surprise me but this chart helps to show that maybe the market isn’t as ridiculously priced as it looks when looking at the S&P 500 chart alone.
SP:SPX
by Skipper86
2
TREASURY YIELDS AND THE FED FUNDS RATEThis chart shows the effective federal funds rate in comparison to the 30 year and 3 month yield over the past five years. There are 5 interesting times to look at: 1. Late 2018 long term yields began to peak right before the fed stopped their hiking cycle. Yield curve began to flatten. 2. They then stayed put for about 6 months with the 3MY hovering right around the EFFR. Suddenly, the 3 month yield dips below the fed rate quickly - and they begin dropping their benchmark rate again . 3. Early 2020 the panic of the COVID-19 pandemic caused rates to nose dive and the fed to slash their rate all the way to 0% very quickly. 4. Fed did not raise rates for two years . In early 2022 they began to hike for the first time since 2018. This also coincides with the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. 5. Half a year of steady rate hikes makes it so the EFFR finally passes it's 2018 peak in mid 2022. The 30Y and 30M invert fairly soon after while the fed funds rate overtakes the 30Y yield. Feel free to discuss what you think of these relations and what your predictions are for the future. In my opinion, the more the yield curve inverts the more problems there will be in the financial system. Eventually, term risk will not outweigh the high short-term yields especially once the benchmark rate gets over the inflation rate. I see the fed doing what they are best ate - acting too late.
FRED:EFFR
by Seth-Goldberg
Inflation Data was a catalyst to Pullback for Liquidity/+ >PriceWell it appears that inflation helped price pullback to 1.079. Price didn't spend much time up there , less than an hour on tuesday , when data came out. ever since we have bears from last week reappear. momentum is strong because of unexpected nfp data, cpi was expected, positively declined , if that makes sense. price is showing us relentless selling pressure. i mean the price is currently holding up a weekly candle top wick that measures 123 pips which isn't unusual but significant. Price has only gone 24 pips below weekly candle open. It is likely we see a larger range created to the downside. current price 1.06596
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
EUR/USD Drops to Seven-Week Lows After U.S. Inflation DataThe EUR/USD pair came under renewed pressure on Friday and fell to its lowest level in seven weeks as the dollar jumped, in tandem with U.S. Treasury bond yields, following another round of inflation figures. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.0550 zone, down 0.4% on the day and on track to post a 1.4% weekly decline. The pair scored its weakest level since January 6 at 1.0536 at the beginning of the New York session. Data from the U.S. showed that the annual core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, came in at 4.7% in January, hitting the highest rate in six months and surpassing the market consensus of 4.3%. The inflation data fueled expectations the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance, which saw the U.S. bond yields and the dollar soaring. The 10-year yield reached 3.97%, while the 2- and 5-year rates climbed to 4.82% and 4.23%, respectively. Following the higher-than-expected PCE inflation reading, investors are betting on probabilities of 70% of a 25 bps hike versus a 29.9% of a higher increase of 50 bps, which case is getting stronger. In that sense, next week’s nonfarm payrolls data (March 3) and February CPI figures (March 14) would influence expectations ahead of Fed’s meeting on March 21-22. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD maintains a short-term bearish bias according to indicators on the daily chart as the RSI and MACD are both deep in negative ground. However, if the bulls manage to hold the 1.0480 level, the pair will retain its bullish longer-term outlook as indicators remain in positive territory on the weekly chart while the price hovers above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. On the downside, support levels are seen at February 24 low at 1.0536, followed by the 1.0500 area, and the January low of 1.0480. On the other hand, bounces will face immediate resistance at the 1.0600 area, followed by the 1.0650 level and the 20-day SMA around 1.0720.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Yen edges lower after BoJ's Ueda testimonyThe Japanese yen is slightly weaker on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading just above the 135 line. Incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda appeared at a parliamentary hearing on Friday and the markets were all ears. The buzz-word from Ueda was 'continuity', which really wasn't a surprise. Ueda has already said that the current policy is appropriate and he maintained this stance at the hearing. Ueda said that ultra-low rates are needed while the economy is fragile and ruled out fighting inflation by tightening policy. With inflation running at 4%, above the BoJ's target of 2%, there is pressure on Ueda to abandon or at least adjust the Bank's yield control policy (YCC), which is being criticised for distorting market functions. Ueda treated this hot potato with caution. He acknowledged that the YCC had caused side effects but said that the BoJ should evaluate whether recent steps such as widening the band around the yield target would ease these problems. The takeaway from Ueda's testimony is that he is in no hurry to shift central bank policy. Still, there is strong pressure on Ueda to address YCC, which is damaging the bond markets. Investors should not discount the possibility that Governor Kuroda could widen the target yield band at the March meeting in order to relieve pressure on Ueda. If Kuroda doesn't act, the bond markets could respond with massive selling before Ueda takes the helm of the BoJ in April. The inflation pressures facing the BOJ were underscored by National Core CPI for January, which rose from 4.0% to 4.2%. This was just shy of the 4.3% estimate, but still the highest reading since 1981. The BoJ has insisted that inflation is temporary (remember that line from the ECB and the Fed?), and is hoping that the government's massive stimulus package, which includes subsidies for electricity, will help bring down inflation. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 134.85. Above, there is resistance at 135.75 1.3350 and 131.90 are providing support
by OANDA
Bitcoin Stops at resistance as USD Turns Higher For Correction Cryptocurrencies slowed down recently as USD index turns higher for a correction because of inflation concerns. We see USD index in a temporary recovery, means that at some point we will expect more weakness as we think that major top for the dollar has been put in place in 2022. However, there cna be some short-term pullbacks on BTCUSD and DASH as I will look in this video, but think there will be long opportunities on dips. Have a nice weekend. Grega
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
9
Long Term DXY and inflation - Where is the Future for the $This chart shows DXY since 2008, when it began its current Long term trend in an ascending channel, with various events helping it along, Most recently, the War in Ukraine. The Indicator at the base of the chart is US inflation ticker and it goes RED when inflation is over the 2% mark, as suggested by FOMC way back in the 1990's As we can see, PA has once again bounced off the 0.5 Fib retracement lines as it did last time ( Arrowed) On that occasion it took 2 months to rise 3.9%, which, on this occasion, it has already nearly managed to do, possibly because the FED has already stated that Rate Will continue to rise. We also have the FOMC meeting Minutes released to day that will no doubt help it along. The world is a different place from when we were last in this "pattern" and more countries are pulling Away from the use of the $ as an international currency, possibly the biggest blow to the $ Is that OPEC is moving away and replacing the Petro$, which had contractual obligation to also invest in US Stocks and Bonds. China, Iran and Russia are also amoung a number of countries moving away from using the $ as an international settlement currency This will cost the USA a LOT and will ultimetly devalue the $ Chances are that longer Term, the DXY may fall out of this ascending channel. Will it descend to the March 2008 All Time LOW of $0.7 ? Who knows but the USA Needs to pull a trick out the bag to sustain this level of growth Sadly, WAR is an option for the Worlds Largest weapons producer but that will only be a temporary solution INDUSTRY and TECHNOLOGY is the Future for the USA and that should include CRYPTO. But, because the USA IS a Bank, THE Leading Traditional Finance Market, it is fighting it and NOT adopting it. Could the American $ Empire be the shortest lived empire ever ?
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
2
Aussie dips after soft wage dataThe Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6824, down 0.47%. Australian wage growth was short of the forecast, with a gain of 0.8% q/q in Q4 2020. This was down from 1.1% in Q3 and below the forecast of 1.0%. Annual wage growth rose to 3.3%, up from 3.2% but below the estimate of 3.5%. This will be welcome news to the RBA, which is concerned that high inflation could lead to a price-wage spiral that would entrench inflation expectations and complicate efforts to curb inflation. The RBA has hiked interest rates by 325 basis points in the current cycle but the battle against inflation rages on. Inflation rose to 7.8% in Q4 2022, its highest level since March 1990. The central bank's steep tightening is yet to curb inflation, and Lowe faced criticism of his rate policy when he appeared before a parliamentary committee last week. Lowe told the lawmakers that high inflation was "dangerous" and reiterated that future rate moves would be data-driven. The cash rate is currently at 3.35% and the markets have priced a peak rate of 4.1%. The RBA has signalled that more rate hikes are coming and we're likely to see a 25-basis point hike for a fifth straight time at the March meeting, barring some unexpected data. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which will release the minutes of its February meeting later on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp, but investors will be interested in the extent of support for a 50-bp hike at the meeting as a clue what to expect from the March 22 meeting. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were confident that the March meeting would provide a 'one and done' rate increase and the Fed would cut rates late in the year. The blowout employment report, a strong retail sales release and higher-than-expected inflation have changed that narrative. The markets have moved closer to the Fed's hawkish stance, and Goldman Sachs and the Bank of America are projecting three more rate hikes in 2023. AUD/USD has support at 0.6784 and 0.6690 There is resistance at 0.6907 and 0.7001
by OANDA
NZD/USD eyes central bank meetingThe New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD declined over 0.50% earlier but has pared most of these losses and is trading at 0.6240, down 0.20%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday, its first policy meeting this year. The Bank last met in November, at which time it hiked rates by a record 75 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 4.25%. There had been expectations of another 75-bp increase at tomorrow's meeting, but Cyclone Gabrielle has thrown a monkey wrench into the decision. The cyclone, which caused damage in the billions of dollars, has raised concerns about the economy and the RBNZ is widely expected to lower gears and deliver a 50-bp increase. In the short term, the major disruptions from the cyclone are projected to raise inflation, which is already running at 7.2%, its highest level since 1990. Aside from Gabrielle, there are signs that inflation may have peaked. Inflation Expectations eased in Q1 to 3.3%, down from 3.6% in Q4 2022. Inflation hit 7.2% in the final quarter of 2022, lower than the RBNZ's forecast of 7.5%. The RBNZ still has its foot on the brake, but if inflation continues to head lower, we can expect the Bank to ease up on the pace of rates in the coming meetings. In the US, we'll get a look at the February PMI reports. Recent US numbers have beaten expectations, including employment growth, retail sales, and inflation. This is not a complete picture of the economy, as the services and manufacturing sectors have been in contraction territory for months, with readings below the 50.0 level. This negative trend is expected to continue, with Manufacturing PMI expected at 47.3 and Services PMI at 47.2 points. There is resistance at 0.6275 and 0.6357 0.6162 and 0.6080 are providing support
by OANDA
Euro drifting, markets eye PMIsThe euro showed some volatility at the start of last week but since then it has been in calm waters and has stayed close to the 1.0.7 line. We'll get a look at eurozone and German PMIs on Tuesday. The ECB has been criticized for sending mixed messages to the markets, but Christine Lagarde was crystal clear last week when she told EU lawmakers that “in view of the underlying inflation pressures we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next meeting in March”. Lagarde said the ECB would then evaluate future moves, but with inflation still high, the risks for further rate hikes are skewed to the upside. The ECB's primary focus is to tame inflation. Headline inflation fell to 8.5% in January, down from 9.2% in December, but is still unacceptably high. Core CPI has been stickier than expected and wage increases are stemming the drop in inflation. ECB member Isabel Shnabel said last that investors risk underestimating inflation, a warning that the Fed has also made to the markets that have consistently been more dovish about rate policy than the Fed. Schnabel noted that the disinflation process has not started in the eurozone, another signal that the central bank will remain in a hawkish mode for the near future. Fed members continue to pound out the message that inflation remains too high and more rate hikes are needed. Investors are clearly concerned that the Fed will make good on these statements, which has sent risk sentiment lower and the US dollar higher. The markets had high hopes that the March rate increase would be a 'one and done', but it looks like the Fed will continue raising rates into the second quarter. According to CME's FedWatch, the markets have priced in an 83% of a 25-bp hike and a 17% of a 50-bp increase. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0704. Above, there is resistance at 1.0795 1.0604 and 1.0513 are the next support lines
by OANDA
SPX: Watch These Stocks to CASH IN on EGGS 🥚Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 The SPX Chart is looking bullish as we see another very clear pattern form - the higher lows. Previously, this has been a sign that we can expect more upside movement from the stock market. But not all stocks are equal during this time... Have you bought some eggs recently? Forget high gas prices. If you've tried to buy eggs lately, you've paid up or done without. But some investors are finding a way to cash in. Shares of one of the largest publicly traded egg producers, Cal-Maine (CALM) is up 39% in past 12 months. That's impressive as while the S&P 500 was down more than 7% during that time. Egg prices are on fire — even more so than oil. The price of a dozen grade-A eggs was $4.25 nationally in December 2022, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up 138% from the same period a year ago. In some places, like California, eggs sell for even more. Egg prices are becoming the new face for runaway inflation. Millions of hens died last year in an outbreak of disease. That sharply cut the supply of eggs. Cal-Maine is even considered a meme stock now, landing in the Roundhill Meme ETF (MEME). The avian flu's effect on supply will ease, analysts say. But investors who look closely will see that corporate profits at egg companies are booming, too. And that's not seen easing anytime soon. "Energy prices fell 4.5% in December on a 9.4% decline in gasoline prices. Food prices rose 0.3%, with food at home up 0.2% and food away from home up 0.4%, " said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. "Egg prices rose 11.1% on the month, pushed higher by an avian flu outbreak that has hurt supply." So when you're ready to cough up the big bucks to buy eggs, at least know there's a way to profit, too. HEY👀 Interested in Bitcoin? Here's my take for the SHORT TERM : _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
SP:SPXLong
by CryptoCheck-
35
Nasdaq, massive distribution? Nasdaq have been in sideway for the first half of Feb 2023 During this period we have 1) FOMC meeting 2) CPI data 3) PPI Data 4) Unemployment Data 5) Retails During the FOMC on the 1st of Feb 2023, Powell was confident of a soft landing. He mentioned the word "disinflation" approximately 20 times. He gave the green light for the market to rally by stating he does not think the financial conditions have eased since Dec 2022's FOMC. The market rejoiced and rallied.... for one day and then proceed to go sideways for the next 2 weeks. During these 2 weeks, all economic data show signs that there was no sign of disinflation. MoM CPI was revised higher for Dec 2022 from negative 0.1% to positive 0.1% Jan 2023's MoM CPI went back up by 0.5% YoY PPI went was 6% compared to the consensus of 5.4% MOM PPI went up by 0.7% instead of the consensus 0.4% (HOLY SHIT!!! F ME! IT IS almost doubled the consensus) Unemployment went down to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969 (low unemployment equates to higher consumer spending equates to higher inflation) MoM Retail sales went up 3% instead of the consensus 1.8& (HOLY SHIT!!) If the critical support is broken, we have a long way down. Much like inflation in 2021, maybe this "disinflation" is also transitory
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by NimbusCapital
EUR/USD at 3-week low after strong US dataThe euro is down for a third straight day and fell earlier to 1.0629, its lowest level since Jan. 23. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0639, down 0.30%. The US dollar is showing some strength this week against the majors, as US data continues to shine. Retail sales impressed with a 3% gain earlier this week, and PPI and unemployment claims were both better than expected. Is the disinflation process stalled? The markets didn't expect such good numbers, but the economy has proved to be surprisingly resilient to rising interest rates. The Fed has been preaching 'higher for longer' for some time, but the markets stuck to their dovish stance, expecting that the Fed would have to pivot and even cut rates later in the year. The host of strong US numbers has forced investors to recalibrate, and the markets have revised upwards their peak rate forecast to above 5%. The US dollar has been the big winner of the shift in market thinking, and US Treasury yields are at their highest level this year. Fed member Mester said she saw a strong case for raising rates by 50 basis points at the last Fed meeting, a sign that the Fed could move away from the moderate 25-bp hikes if inflation isn't falling quickly enough. Mester said that she didn't see inflation falling to 2% until 2025, which points to a long disinflation process. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in February and has signalled that it will do the same at the Mar. 16 meeting. The main financing rate is currently at 3%, well below the Fed (4.5%) and other major central banks. It's not clear what the Bank has planned after the first quarter, but with inflation running at 8.5%, the risk for further rate hikes is skewed to the upside. The ECB has made it clear that rates will remain high until there is evidence that inflation is falling toward the target, which means that the current rate-tightening cycle isn't anywhere near its end. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0629. Below, there is support at 1.0581 1.0762 and 1.0847 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
GBP/USD steadies, eyes UK retail salesThe British pound has steadied on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2053, up 0.25%. This follows a sharp drop of 1.2% a day earlier. UK inflation continues to fall but remains disturbingly high. Headline inflation fell to 10.1% in January, down from 10.5% in December and below the consensus of 10.3%. The drop in inflation is welcome news, but food prices, a key driver of inflation, surged by 16.8% in January. With inflation still in double digits, the Bank of England will have to continue raising rates, with the most likely scenario being a 25-basis increase at the Mar. 22 meeting. The market probability of a 25-bp hike rose as high as 73% on Wednesday before dipping to 66% today, according to Refinitiv data. In the US, retail sales delivered an impressive gain of 3% in January, above the estimate of 1.8%. This was a strong rebound from the December reading of -1.1% and marked the largest gain since January 2022. This positive release follows the January inflation report that ticked lower to 6.4% but was higher than expected. These strong numbers translated into strong gains for the US dollar on Wednesday, as the Fed will likely raise rates even higher in order to put the brakes on the strong economy. The UK wraps up the week with retail sales on Friday. The markets are braced for bad news, with an estimate of -5.5% y/y for the headline figure (-5.8% prior) and -5.3% for the core rate (-6.1%). A weak retail sales report could sour investors on the pound and send the currency lower. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2071 earlier in the day. The next resistance line is 1.2180 1.1958 and 1.1838 are providing support
by OANDA
UK Inflation drop to 5 month low at 10.10% - Still crazy high!The UK inflation rate has dropped to a 5-month low of 10.1%. This tells us that the peak inflation may be behind us. The decrease in transport costs, as well as restaurants and hotels, were the main drivers of the lower inflation rate. However, if we compare it to other developed nations like the US, France, and Germany - the UK's inflation rate is still quite a bit higher. Now we need to see the Bank of England (BoE) to keep taking action to drop the inflation and interest rates. I mean an inflation rate of 10% or higher is still crazy!
ECONOMICS:GBIRYYShort
by Timonrosso
US100 Price Breakout with Strong Support, But All Eyes on CPIThe US100, also known as the Nasdaq 100 index, has been making some significant moves recently that are worth keeping an eye on for traders. Specifically, there have been a few key levels that have been broken which are often seen as indicators of price momentum and potential future price movements. One of these key levels is the 4-hour trendline. Trendlines are often used to help identify potential areas of support or resistance for a given security or index. When prices break above or below a trendline, it can signal a potential shift in price momentum. In this case, the US100 broke above a key 4-hour trendline, which is a bullish signal that suggests prices may continue to rise in the short term. In addition to the trendline, the US100 also recently broke through a strong resistance zone. Resistance zones are areas where prices have struggled to break through in the past. When prices do finally break through a resistance zone, it can suggest a shift in market sentiment and a potential increase in buying pressure. In this case, the US100 broke through a key resistance zone and then retested that area as support, which is another bullish signal for traders. However, despite these bullish signals on the charts, there is an important upcoming event that may have a significant impact on future price movements for the US100. This event is the release of US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, which is scheduled for 5:30am PST. CPI is a measure of inflation, which is one of the most important factors that the US Federal Reserve takes into account when making decisions about interest rates and monetary policy. Inflation that is too high can be a sign of an overheating economy, which can lead to increased borrowing costs and reduced economic growth. Therefore, the Fed is constantly monitoring inflation levels and using policy tools to try to keep inflation within a certain range. The upcoming CPI release is expected to be a major market-moving event for the US100, as well as for other markets such as currencies and bonds. If the CPI data comes in below expectations (a "miss"), this may suggest that inflation is not as much of a concern as previously thought, which could lead to increased buying pressure for the US100. On the other hand, if the CPI data comes in above expectations (a "beat"), this may suggest that inflation is a bigger concern than previously thought, which could lead to increased selling pressure for the US100. In either case, it is important to note that the Fed's next moves will likely be shaped by the CPI data. If inflation continues to be a concern, the Fed may take steps to raise interest rates or reduce asset purchases in order to try to curb inflation. This could have a significant impact on the US100 and other markets in the short and long term. In summary, while the US100 has recently shown some bullish signals on the charts, traders should be cautious and pay close attention to the upcoming CPI release. The data from this release is likely to shape the Fed's next moves and could have a significant impact on future price movements for the US100 and other markets.
U
by natron
2
Dollar Doing a Double CheckTraders, The Dollar really wants to make sure that its resistance overhead is legit. From a technical perspective, I love this! Should the dollar remain below my macro uptrend line, it will be all bulls for the next few weeks/months in the U.S. stock markets. The dollar should continue its sideways/down movement during the same interim. If the VIX is any indicator, then my thesis appears to remain intact. Watch closely. Blow off top should peak by mid/late summer or early fall. Best, Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
1