Get started

Inflation

Swiss National Bank cuts by half-point, Swissy dipsThe Swiss franc is down on Thursday following the Swiss National Bank rate announcement. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8880, up 0.43% 80on the day at the time of writing. Today's Swiss National Bank meeting was live, with the market uncertain as whether the SNB would cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. In the end, the central bank opted for a jumbo 50-bp cut, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%. The driver for the today's oversized cut was the November inflation report, which came in at -0.1% for a second straight month. Inflation hasn't posted a gain in six months and the SNB is concerned that inflation could fall below the 0%-2% target. The 50-bp cut marks the SNB's biggest rate reduction in 10 years. In its statement, the Bank pointed to lower-than-expected inflation, risks over US economic policy and political uncertainty in Europe. The statement was somewhat dovish, noting that "the forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty". Today's rate cut marks the fourth reduction this year. The SNB has been aggressive in its easing cycle, with the twin goals of avoiding deflation and combating the Swiss franc's appreciation. The SNB does not want a highly-valued Swiss franc as this hurts the critical export sector. The central bank implemented a negative rate policy until mid-2022 and the SNB has not ruled out a return to negative rates. After the meeting, SNB President Martin Schlegel said that today's 50-bp cut had reduced the probability of negative rates. The SNB also released its updated inflation forecast at today's meeting. The September inflation report was revised downwards, with a forecast of 1.1% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025. USD/CHF has pushed above resistance at 0.8860 and is testing resistance at 0.8879. Above, there is resistance at 0.8903 0.8836 and 0.8817 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/CHF edges up ahead of SNB rate decisionThe Swiss franc is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8845, up 0.19% on the day. 'Tis the season of central bank decisions, with four major central banks making rate announcements this week. The Swiss central bank meets on Thursday and a rate cut has been fully priced, but what will the SNB do? The market has currently priced a 50-basis point cut at 60% and a modest 25-bp cut at 40%. Just one week ago, the odds were 70-30 in favor of a 50-bp cut. Inflation declined by 0.1% in November and Switzerland hasn't posted a gain in inflation since May. The signs of deflation support the case for a jumbo 50-bp cut. Still, central banks prefer modest rate moves in 25-bp increments and with the cash rate at just 1%, policymakers may opt for a 25-bp cut. US inflation for November was a non-event for the US dollar, which has shown little movement today against the major currencies. Headline CPI ticked higher to 2.7% y/y up from 2.6% in October, while the core rate rose 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Monthly, headline CPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3% and the core CPI rose was unchanged at 0.3%. The data matched expectations which explains the muted response of the US dollar. In the aftermath of today's inflation data, the market expectations for a rate cut at the Dec .18 meeting have jumped. The rate odds for a quarter-point have climbed to 97%, compared to 88% immediately prior to the release. The Fed has lowered rates twice this year and is poised for a third cut next week, even though the inflation downswing has stalled and inflation remains higher than the Fed's 2% target. USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.8853 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.8876 0.8810 and 0.8787 are the next support levels
by OANDA
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9 Hence, it shouldn't fall below. After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9 The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148. New reality after May 2025?
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
GBPUSD Fundamental AnalysisThe Pound Sterling trades sideways near 1.2750 against the USD as investors await the US inflation data for November. The impact of US inflation should be limited on Fed interest rate prospects unless there is a dramatic deviation from expectations. Investors expect the BoE to leave interest rates steady at 4.75% on December 19. Inflation Rate MoM forecast: 0.3% previous:0.2% Core Inflation Rate MoM forecast: 0.3% previous: 0.3% The Pound Sterling strives to reclaim the key resistance of 1.2800 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.2720. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Depending on how the inflation information is received, it could see the FX:GBPUSD claim 1.2800 or head down to 1.2500
by luak
1
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY November/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, falling short of market forecasts of 0.5% and marking the lowest figure since June. This slowdown highlighted mounting deflation risks in the country despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing and the central bank's supportive monetary policy stance. Food prices rose the least in four months (1.0% vs 2.9% in October), driven by softer increases in both fresh vegetables and pork. Meantime, non-food prices remained unchanged (vs -0.3% in October), with further rises in the cost of healthcare (1.1% vs. 1.1%) and education (1.0% vs 0.8%) and more declines in prices of transport (-3.6% vs -4.8%) and housing (-0.1% vs -0.1%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% yoy, the most in 3 months, after a 0.2% gain in October. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.6%, surpassing October's 0.3% fall and the estimated 0.4% drop while pointing to the sharpest decrease since March.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
AUD/USD soars as China's inflation dipsThe Australian dollar continues to takes traders on a roller-coaster. AUD/USD has surged 0.85% on Monday, recovering most of the 1% decline on Friday. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6443 at the time of writing. The week ended with a rebound from US nonfarm payrolls. In November, nonfarm payrolls climbed by 227 thousand, above the market estimate of 200 thousand. This followed a very weak October report, which was revised upwards to 36 thousand from 12 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as expected, up from 4.1% in October. The employment data has raised expectations of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 18 meeting, with the odds currently at 87%, up sharply from 62% a week ago. The Australian dollar took a tumble after the strong nonfarm payroll numbers, but has quickly recovered after China's inflation was lower than expected. In November, CPI eased to 0.2% y/y, down from 0.3% in October and short of the market estimate of 0.5%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.6%, down from -0.3% in October and lower than the market estimate of -0.6%. The weak Chinese inflation data has raised expectations that China's central bank will respond by lowering interest rates. That would help boost the economy and increase demand for Australian exports and  the Australian dollar has responded with sharp gains today. The Reserve Bank of Australia  meets on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6407 and is testing resistance at 0.6492. Above, there is resistance at 0.6492 0.6356 and 0.6322 are the next support lines
by OANDA
1
Australian dollar eyes GDPThe Australian dollar is drifting on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6461, down 0.20% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s economy is expected to improve in the third quarter, with a market estimate of 0.4% q/q. This follows a disappointing gain of 0.2% in Q2, the weakest growth in five quarters, as household spending declined. On a  yearly basis, GDP is expected to tick up to 1.1% compared to 1% in the second quarter. The Australian economy continues to groan under the weight of high interest rates, which the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented in order to tame high inflation. Now that inflation has come down, there is pressure on the RBA to respond with lower rates. The RBA has become an outlier as most major central banks are in the middle of an easing cycle while the RBA has held rates for over a year. RBA Governor Bullock has remained hawkish, reiterating that underlying inflation is too high for the RBA’s liking and that a rate hike is not off the table. Headline inflation has fallen to 2.1%, well within the RBA’s target bank of 2%-3%, but the RBA remains concerned about underlying inflation, which  accelerated in October to 3.5%, up from 3.2% a month earlier. The market isn’t buying the warning of higher rates and expects the next rate move to be a cut sometime in mid-2025. That means that consumers will have to grapple with high rates for months, barring an unexpected fall in underlying inflation. In the US, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that he is leaning toward a cut in December but could change his mind if inflation surprised on the upside. The US releases November CPI one week prior to the rate announcement and the release will be a key factor as to whether the Fed cuts or maintains interest rates. AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6478 earlier. Next, there is resistance at 0.6514 0.6441 and 0.6405 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Why Cost of Living is Still a Concern?Why is the cost of living still a concern, even though inflation has declined to 2.6%? In many elections over the past two years, voters have ranked inflation as their top concern. As we can see, the prices of many commodities remain above pre-COVID levels, with gold and meat prices currently much higher than they were at the inflation peak in 2022. Consciously or unconsciously, both investors and consumers seem to feel that the cost of living will remain elevated for a prolonged period. Moreover, there is always a risk that inflation might creep back up again. Feeder Cattle Futures & Options Ticker: GF Minimum fluctuation: 0.00025 per pound = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:GF1!Long
by konhow
9
Can the Brazilian Real Survive its Perfect Economic Storm?In the intricate world of global finance, few narratives are as compelling as Brazil's current economic crucible. The Brazilian real stands at a precipice, buffeted by a confluence of domestic policy missteps and international economic pressures that challenge the very foundations of its monetary stability. President Lula's administration finds itself wrestling with a complex challenge: balancing ambitious social spending with the cold, hard realities of fiscal discipline. The currency's dramatic decline—losing nearly 20% of its value in recent months—represents more than a mere statistical fluctuation. It is a profound referendum on investor confidence, reflecting deep-seated concerns about Brazil's economic management. The potential depreciation to 7 reals per dollar looms like a specter, threatening to unleash inflationary pressures that could destabilize the entire economic ecosystem, from local markets to international trade relationships. What emerges is a high-stakes economic drama with global implications. The Brazilian real's struggle is not just a national issue, but a microcosm of the broader challenges facing emerging economies in an increasingly unpredictable global financial landscape. As central bank governors, international investors, and policymakers watch with bated breath, Brazil stands at a critical juncture—its choices will not only determine its economic trajectory but potentially reshape perceptions of emerging market resilience in the face of unprecedented economic volatility.
Long
by signalmastermind
Cosmos (ATOM)📊 Comprehensive Analysis of ATOM 🔍 Overview: ATOM, after experiencing a significant decline, entered a downward channel with a slight slope toward its weekly support level. With notable trading volume entering, it managed to rise strongly above the weekly support zone and the bottom of the descending channel. Currently, it is moving toward the top of the descending channel, where a critical weekly resistance (red zone) lies, with the possibility of a correction at this level. 🕰 Technical Analysis: 🔸 Current Status: The price is approaching the top of the descending channel and the weekly resistance (red zone). For buyers who entered at the channel's bottom, partial profit-taking in the red zone is a reasonable strategy. 🔸 Key Levels for Entry and Price Targets: Entry: Confirmation of price stabilization above the weekly resistance (red zone) is essential for re-entry. Targets: Breaking this resistance could push the price toward the yellow and green zones. 🔸 RSI Status: If the weekly RSI enters the Overbought zone, the likelihood of breaking the weekly resistance increases. This breakout may lead to a sharp price movement upwards, with the potential to reach Over-Extended levels. 🎯 Price Levels: Short-Term Target: Weekly resistance (red zone). Mid-Term Target: Yellow zone after breaking the resistance. Long-Term Target: Green zone and Over-Extended levels. 💡 Summary: Bullish Scenario: Breaking and stabilizing above the weekly resistance could lead to sharp upward movement toward higher targets. Bearish Scenario: If the resistance is not broken, a price correction toward lower supports (such as the middle line of the channel) is possible. 📌 Recommendation: Prioritize risk and capital management. Confirmation of resistance breakout with high volume and appropriate RSI conditions is crucial.
Long
by alizeynali69
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY November/2024 source: EUROSTAT Euro Area Inflation Rate Rises to 2.3% as Expected -The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone accelerated for a second month to 2.3% in November from 2% in October, matching market expectations, preliminary estimates showed. This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates. Prices of energy decreased less but inflation slowed for services.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Yen soars as Japan’s core inflation jumpsThe Japanese yen has surged higher on Friday after a strong inflation release. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.19, down 0.87% on the day. Earlier, the yen has broken below the symbolic 150 level for the first time since Oct. 21. Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 2.2% in November, above market expectations of 2.1% and above the October gain of 1.8%. Tokyo CPI jumped 2.6% in November, blowing past the October reading of 1.8% and the forecast of 1.9%. The robust inflation data has sent the yen sharply higher as expectations for a December rate hike have climbed. The markets still aren’t sure which way the wind is blowing and have priced a December cut at around 60%. The Bank of Japan won’t win any points for transparency about its rate plans but the BoJ has hinted that its plans to continue raising rates and moving towards normalization. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines next month, it is expected to trim rates in early 2025. The BoJ has more on its mind than inflation when it comes to rate policy. The yen has been on a miserable slide since early October, although it has shown some strength this week. The BoJ is under pressure to raise rates in order to support the yen, although a quarter-point rate may not provide much of a boost. If the yen continues to lose ground and moves back towards the 155-160 level, we can expect the Ministry of Finance and the BoJ to warn about a possible currency intervention. This would be a last resort but Tokyo has carried through with interventions when it felt the yen was depreciating too quickly. USD/JPY has pushed below several support lines today. Currently, there is weak support at 149.89, followed closely by 149.63 152.05 and 152.54 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
$USCPCEPIMM -U.S PCE (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM October/2024 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in October 2024, the same pace as in September and matching market forecasts. Service prices rose by 0.4%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%. Year-on-year, core PCE prices rose by 2.8% in October, the most in six months, also in line with market estimates.
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
Yen rally fizzles, Tokyo Core CPI expected to riseThe Japanese yen is lower on Thursday, after climbing 2.4% over the past two trading sessions. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.83, up 0.57% on the day. On the data calendar, Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI. In the US, the financial markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and there are no US events. Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, will be released on Friday. The market estimate for November stands at 2.1% y/y, following a 1.8% gain in October, which was the lowest level since April. The headline rate is expected to rise from 1.8% to 1.9%. October inflation numbers have been mixed. The Bank of Japan Core CPI index surprised on the downside with a 1.5% gain, down from 1.7% in September. However, services inflation inched up to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in September and above the forecast of 2.5%. If the Tokyo inflation release accelerates as expected, it will likely raise expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan at the Dec. 19 meeting. Inflation isn’t the only item on the minds of BoJ policymakers. There is significant political uncertainty both at home and abroad. Prime Minister Ishiba lost his majority in parliament in the October election and needs opposition support to pass a supplementary budget. In the US, President-elect Trump is threatening to slap tariffs on its trading partners, which could have massive negative implications for Japan’s auto industry, a key sector of the economy. On Wednesday, US GDP (second estimate) confirmed the initial estimate gain of 2.8% for the third quarter. This indicates solid economic growth, which has been helped by strong consumer spending. The worries about a recession have subsided and the Fed has signaled that it plans to gradually continue trimming interest rates. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 151.60. Above, there is resistance at 152.75 149.97 and 148.82 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Bitcoin Breaks $95K Pivot: What’s Next After US Inflation Data? Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) surged past the crucial $95,000 level following the release of US PCE inflation data, which came in at 2.3% YoY—right on target. This event, combined with strong technical signals and institutional interest, paints a compellingly bullish outlook for BTC. Inflation and Institutional Moves The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data revealed steady inflation at 2.3%, aligning with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 2.8% YoY increase. This steady inflation reading suggests potential stabilization in interest rates, a scenario historically favorable for Bitcoin as investors seek hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. Additionally, the global landscape for institutional investments in Bitcoin is heating up. Chinese publicly-listed firm SOS recently announced a $50 million investment in BTC, viewing it as a long-term store of value and predicting a $100K milestone. This strategic move signals growing confidence among institutional players, which could drive further price momentum. Technical Analysis Bitcoin’s current price action supports the bullish narrative. Here’s why: 1. Bullish Engulfing Pattern: CRYPTOCAP:BTC is trading around $95,900, having formed a strong bullish engulfing candle. This pattern often signals a trend reversal or continuation, indicating potential for further gains. 2. Golden Cross Formation: BTC’s chart shows a “Golden Cross,” where the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses above the 200-day MA. Historically, this pattern has preceded major bull runs, suggesting CRYPTOCAP:BTC could reach $150K by the end of the year or shortly after. 3. RSI at 67: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory—not overbought nor oversold—providing room for further upward movement. This gives traders and investors confidence to enter or hold positions. Since May 2024, Bitcoin was trapped in a falling wedge pattern. It recently broke through this structure at the intersection of the 50-day and 200-day MAs. Outlook: Targeting $150K? With strong fundamentals—rising institutional adoption and favorable inflation data—combined with powerful technical indicators like the Golden Cross and bullish engulfing patterns, Bitcoin appears poised for a substantial rally. We predict BTC could hit $150K by Christmas or early 2025. Investors should watch key levels: maintaining support above $95K will be crucial, with near-term resistance at $100K. If CRYPTOCAP:BTC sustains momentum, a breakout above this psychological barrier could trigger a parabolic move. Final Thoughts As Bitcoin’s narrative strengthens with macroeconomic and technical factors aligned, now may be an opportune moment for investors. Stay tuned—2024 might end with Bitcoin rewriting crypto history.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
New Zealand dollar eyes RBNZ rate announcementThe New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday, after a four-day losing streak. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5850, up 0.09% on the day. Earlier, the New Zealand dollar fell as low as 0.5797, its lowest level since Nov. 1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand makes its rate announcement on Wednesday and the markets have priced in a jumbo rate cut of a 50 basis point for a second straight meeting. This would bring the cash rate to 4.25%, its lowest level since November 2022. The RBNZ has done a good job of lowering inflation, which fell to 2.2% in the second quarter. This is the first time in over three years that inflation is within the target band of between 1 and 3 percent. Still, elevated rates have taken a heavy toll on the economy, as GDP declined 0.2% in the second quarter and likely fell in Q3 as well, which would mark a recession. The central bank’s aggressive rate-cutting is aimed at providing the economy with a much-needed boost. The New Zealand dollar stands to be the big loser from an oversized rate cut. The currency plunged around 1% after the 50-bp chop in October and we could see another sharp drop on Wednesday if the central bank cuts again by 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the November meeting later today. At the meeting, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points. Investors will be looking for insights about what the Fed may have planned for the Dec. 18 meeting. A few weeks ago, a second straight 25-bp cut appeared likely but with the US economy remaining strong, the Fed may opt to pause. Interest-rate future markets are currently pricing in a cut at 59% and a pause at 41%, according to the CME’s Fed Watch. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5857. Above, there is resistance at 0.5898 There is support at 0.5793 and 0.5752
OMXCOP:FED
by OANDA
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications -The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.3% in October 2024 from 2.5% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since January. Electricity prices saw the smallest increase in six months (4.0% vs 15.2% in September), as the effects of the energy subsidy removal in May diminished. Also, gas prices rose more slowly (3.5% vs 7.7%). In addition, costs slowed for furniture and household utensils (4.4% vs. 4.8%) and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%). Moreover, prices dropped further for communication (-3.5% vs -2.6%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%). On the other hand, prices edged higher for food (3.5% vs 3.4%) and housing (0.8% vs. 0.7%). Meanwhile, transport prices jumped (0.5% vs. 0.1%) amid faster rises in cost of clothing (2.8% vs 2.6%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 0.9%). The core inflation rate hit a six-month low of 2.3%, down from September's 2.4% but above estimates of 2.2%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.4%, a reversal from a 0.3% fall in September.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate Above Forecasts (October/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate in the UK went up to 2.3% in October 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September. This exceeded both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%. The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (5.5% vs 3.8% in September), mainly electricity (-6.3% vs -19.5%) and gas (-7.3% vs -22.8%), reflecting the rise of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in October 2024. Also, prices rose faster for restaurants and hotels (4.3% vs 4.1%) and rebounded for housing and utilities (2.9% vs -1.7%). Prices of services increased slightly more (5% vs 4.9%), matching estimates form the central bank. On the other hand, food inflation was steady at 1.9% and the largest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture (3% vs 3.8%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.6%. Finally, annual core inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
UK inflation expected to jump to 2.2%The British pound is steady on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP is trading at 1.2678 at the time of writing, unchanged on the day. On Monday, the pound ended a six-day slide, during which the currency lost 2.8%. The Bank of England has done an excellent job slashing inflation, which was in double digits for much of 2023. The September inflation report was a milestone as inflation eased to 1.7%, the first time it was below the BoE target of 2% since April 2021. Still, the BoE is under no illusions that the tenacious battle against inflation is over. Services inflation has fallen significantly but is running at 4.9%, more than double the target. The Trump election win has raised deep concerns that Trump’s trade policy promises, with threats of tariffs on US trading partners, could lead to higher global inflation. The BoE lower rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, marking the second rate cut in the current easing cycle. The September inflation report contributed to the decision to lower rates at that meeting and Wednesday’s inflation release will be closely monitored by the BoE, with the following inflation report coming out on Dec. 18, just one day before the BOE’s next rate announcement. BoE Governor Bailey said in a report to the House of Commons Treasury select committee that the BoE needed to keep a close eye on services inflation, which remained above a level that was compatible with “on target inflation”. Bailey also stated that he favored a gradual approach to cutting rates in order for the central bank to assess the effects of the government’s recent budget on growth and inflation. The BoE’s November forecasts indicate that the budget will result in higher growth and inflation in the near term, which could slow the pace of rate cuts. GBP/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.2707 and 1.2736 1.2629 and 1.2658 are the next support levels
by OANDA
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 15, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index has demonstrated considerable weakness by reaching the significant Outer Index Rally target 6000, as indicated in the S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis dated November 8. This decline has initiated a substantial pullback, as the index has fulfilled a key target of 6000. As a result, it has significantly decreased to the newly established Mean Support level of 5856, which suggests a potential continuation of the pullback toward the Mean Support levels of 5765 and 5700. However, it is essential to acknowledge that attaining these Mean Support levels may create the conditions for an upward price rebound before entering the subsequent phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Rising Inflation Expectations: TIP vs. IEFIntroduction: With the election concluded, market focus has shifted to bond markets, where recent developments hint at rising inflation expectations. Despite President Trump's campaign emphasis on price control, indicators suggest a shift toward higher inflation. A key metric to monitor is the ratio between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities AMEX:TIP and 7-10 Year Treasuries $IEF. When (TIP) outperforms NASDAQ:IEF , it signals increasing inflation expectations; conversely, when IEF outperforms, it suggests a decline in inflation expectations. Analysis: Inflation Expectations: The TIP-to-IEF ratio is a reliable gauge of the market's inflation outlook. A rising ratio indicates growing inflation concerns, as investors favor TIPs for their inflation protection over traditional Treasuries. Technical Pattern: Currently, the TIP-to-IEF ratio is breaking out of a descending triangle formation, a continuation pattern that signals the potential for higher inflation expectations. This breakout aligns with a recent surge in interest rates, reflecting heightened inflation concerns in the bond market. Market Implications: This breakout could be the early stage of a sustained trend toward higher inflation, raising questions about whether the recent interest rate surge is a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a longer-term shift. Conclusion: The bond market is sending signals of rising inflation expectations, as indicated by the breakout in the TIP-to-IEF ratio. This could mark the start of a new phase in the inflation cycle, with potential implications for interest rates and broader market sentiment. Traders should closely monitor this ratio to assess the longevity of the current trend. Do you think inflation expectations are set to rise further? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the TIP-to-IEF ratio, the descending triangle formation, and breakout targets) Tags: #Inflation #Bonds #Treasuries #TIP #IEF #InterestRates #TechnicalAnalysis
AMEX:TIP
by Richtv_official
USDCHF: Technicals Meet Diverging Dollar-Franc FundamentalsHey Traders! In today’s trading session, we’re closely monitoring USD/CHF for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.88400 zone. Currently, USD/CHF is trading in an uptrend, but it’s in a correction phase and approaching the 0.88400 support and resistance area—a key level that could offer an entry point aligned with the ongoing trend. Fundamental Insights: USD Strength vs. CHF Weakness From a fundamental perspective, we’re seeing diverging influences on USD and CHF. A Trump victory could boost the dollar, as it may reintroduce inflationary pressures, paving the way for potential rate hikes and a stronger dollar outlook. In contrast, the Swiss franc may continue to soften, as the Swiss National Bank remains committed to a dovish stance, keeping monetary policy highly accommodative. If these fundamentals align, USD/CHF could see upward momentum, with 0.88400 as a critical support level for this potential move. Trade safe, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
11