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Inflation

DAX crosses the 100 day EMA for the third time this yearThe DAX30 has once again crossed the 100 day EMA for the third time this year. After the previous two crosses, the index went ahead to lose an average of 15%. The index has already reached a trough of 27.55% this year with each drop weakening and bear exhaustion showing up as evident from MACD divergence. The index has priced in a lot of bad news including the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, high inflation pressuring consumers budgets and ECB rate hikes. It is highly unlikely that a recession in Europe has been priced in. The BoE acknowledged that the UK entered a recession in Q3. Eurozone PMIs released this week showed that manufacturing is already in recession territory. Pessimism in the sector is still high but supply chain pressures seem to be falling amidst falling orders. The question on my mind is how deep the recession in Europe will be and how long it will last. I'm currently bearish on European indices as bullish sentiment or lack of bearish price action shows a disconnect from fundamentals. Looking at volume flow (FDAX futures), it can be seen that short positions have largely reduced from a peak of 125K in September to the current 33K. Long positions have also fallen from 134K in Oct to 92K. This implies that the current bullish price action has no legs. This can be collaborated with On Balance Volume showing that inflows might have peaked at the August - September highs. In summary, this is why I'm still bearish and looking to sell the rips: Recession in Europe not priced in or at least partly priced in. Inflation is still a sore thorn for Europe with YoY increases crossing the 10% mark. Volume flows for traders are showing signs for peaking.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
Bank of England raised rates by 75 basis pointsEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 After the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis point rate hike, the Bank of England has followed suit - though notably less inclined to continue aggressive tightening, being warier of an economic recession. GBP/USD lost over 230 pips to a closing price of 1.1165, while EUR/USD slumped from a high of 0.9943 to 0.9751. Later tonight, Mitrade anticipated the US Nonfarm Payrolls to increase employment by 200,000 displaying the resilience in the labor market, hence justifying the hawkish stance of the Fed. Recent rate hikes saw USD/CAD climbing to 1.3745, and USD/JPY rising over 30 pips to 148.27. Due to China’s zero-COVID policy and continued tightening among global central banks, the gold price rebounded from a month-low of $1,617.05 to closed lower at $1,629.65 an ounce. The commodity-sensitive AUD/USD pair declined and stabilized at 0.6287, as WTI oil futures fell to $88.17 a barrel.
by Mitrade_official
EURUSD AnalyseAfter correcting its price by hitting the major trend line and maintaining it, the EURUSD currency pair is now back in its bearish structure, and according to the economic data of the United States and the Eurozone, the possibility of increasing the strength of the dollar against the euro is very high. Our opinion on the structure of the chart is bearish with a high probability to the specified base. This is not an investment recommendation or a trading signal. Be careful with your positions due to the extreme volatility of the market in the next few hours.
Short
by Dalltrade
1
Market expects slowed US rate hikes in DecemberEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are to announce their interest rate decisions tomorrow, while sharing the same 75 basis points forecast. Upon some weakened economic indicator readings, Mitrade expects the two central banks would slow down on the rate hike next month. As a result, the greenback has also put the brakes on its peers, EUR/USD closed lower at 0.9874, just recovered to 0.9885, and GBP/USD added slightly to 1.1483. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.85%, aligning with market projections. USD/CAD rebounded to 1.3629, and USD/JPY declined and closed at 148.28. Upon raising hopes for China to re-open its cities and factories, WTI oil futures increased to $88.37 a barrel. Later tonight, the US Crude Oil Inventories are estimated to add 367,000 barrels. Gold price climbed to $1,647.8 an ounce, after reaching a high of 1,655.14.
by Mitrade_official
NZD higher ahead of employment reportNZD/USD is showing some strength today. In the North American session, the New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5838, up 0.41%. Earlier today, NZD/USD rose to 0.5902, its highest level since September 21st. New Zealand releases its Q3 employment report on Wednesday. The data is expected to reaffirm that the labour market remains robust. Employment Change is expected to rise to 0.5% (0.0% prior) and the unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower to 3.2% (3.3% prior). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to be pleased if employment numbers improved in Q3, as it points to inflation remaining high. Moreover, business sentiment is soft, with businesses concerned about rising labor costs and many of them planning to raise their prices. Inflation in Q3 came in at 7.2%, and the RBNZ finds itself much further behind inflation than it had anticipated. The cash rate is currently at 3.5% and the hot inflation report has analysts projecting that the cash rate won't peak until 5.0% or even higher in early 2023. This leaves the RBNZ with little choice but to continue with oversize rate hikes, despite the spectre that high interest rates will tip the economy into a recession. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate setting on Wednesday, with CME's Fed Watch pegging the likelihood of a 75 bp hike at 86%. This would bring the benchmark rate to 4.0%. The question on the minds of investors is what happens next? The last meeting of the year is on December 14th and the Fed is expected to begin to ease its foot off the rate pedal, likely in the form of a 50-bp hike. This will depend on economic data, especially inflation. If inflation isn't showing any signs of peaking, the Fed will have to consider another 75 bp hike. There is resistance at 0.5906 and 0.5999 There is support at 0.5782 and 0.5689
by OANDA
XRP in the short term 2022We are seeing a lot of pressure in conventional markets along with commodity markets with all the inflation and recession numbers involved. With FED moving forward with strong interest rate hikes well into 2023 I can see serious pressure on the XRP price given that there is still no settlement for 2022 or the end of the case until 2023. Fibonacci levels all the way down to $0.3693 and using curves to see the possible path for the XRP price in the short term. If these price points become reality it will become beautiful opportunities for cost averaging and taking advantage of low entry points.
Short
by altcoinb
Aussie extends losses ahead of RBA meetingAUD/USD is down for a third straight day. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6395, down 0.24%. The RBA kicks off a busy week of central bank decisions when it meets on Tuesday. This will be followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. The RBA has delivered a steep rate-tightening cycle this year and the upcoming meeting will be live, as it remains unclear what the RBA has in store for the markets. The markets have priced in a second-straight 25-basis point hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.85%, its highest level since April 2013. There is, however, a 20% chance that the RBA will hike by a steep 50 basis points, given that the Bank's focus is on curbing inflation and the battle remains far from over. Headline inflation jumped to 7.3%, up from 6.1% in Q2, while core inflation hit 6.1%, up from 4.9%. The RBA expects headline inflation to peak at 7.5%, but other views have inflation rising as high as 8.0%. RBA Governor Lowe has caught the markets wrong-footed before - the 50 bp move in June was larger than expected, and the 25 bp in October was a surprise dovish pivot. This makes it tricky to predict the extent of the rate hike on Tuesday -  the markets are leaning heavily towards a 25 bp increase, but a 50 bp move should not be discounted. For the Federal Reserve, inflation is also a key concern. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE core index, rose to 5.1% in September, up from 4.9% a month earlier. That cements a 75 bp rate hike on Wednesday, even though there has been talk of the Fed easing up due to concerns about the economic outlook. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6403. The next support level is 0.6283 There is resistance at 0.6532 and 0.6652
by OANDA
[UPDATE BTC] 3 Scenarios with clear invalidations.Are we? 1) in a macrocycle with multiple inflation and deflation peaks, like in the '70s (red). That means we can see a mini bull market up to 54k and then 7k-10k. 2) in a stage 2 bear market full of bear market rallies (next one up to 22-24k?). Then stage 3 (new drop to 12k) and stage 4 (depression, 2 years of low prices between 12-16k), like in the '40s. 3) in a stage 3 bear market full of bear market rallies (next one up to 22-24k?). Then stage 3 (new drop to 12k) and stage 4 (depression, 2 years of low prices with a monthly deviation that brings prices to 7-8k), like in 2002.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Homocryptus
9
CaixaBank (CABK.mc) bearish scenarioThe technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart of the Spanish company CaixaBank, S.A. (CABK.mc). CaixaBank, S.A., is a Spanish multinational financial services company. It is Spain's third-largest lender by market value, after Banco Santander and BBVA. CaixaBank has 5,397 branches to serve its 15.8 million customers, and has the most extensive branch network in the Spanish market. It is listed in the Bolsa de Madrid and is part of the IBEX 35. The Triangle broke through the support line on 29/10/2022. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 2.850 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 3.5860 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BME:CABKShort
by legacyFXofficial
DXY Can the Dollar keep falling ahead of next week's Fed Rate?This 1M chart focuses on the U.S. Dollar Index (green trend-line), which is seeing its first serious and sustainable pull-back after a long time as since September 28 it has been trading on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (not seen on this monthly time-frame though). This week the low completed a -4.50% from its peak, which is the strongest pull-back since the January 05 2021 bottom! With the upcoming Fed Rate Decision next week, the question is, is it possible for the USD to continue falling without the Fed changing the narrative, i.e. without continue hiking (raising the rates)? A simple answer would be no. That is because in general terms since the mid 80s, the USD and the Fed Interest Rate (black trend-line) have been strongly correlated. It is no surprise that the USD's hyper strong rally this year started right when the Fed announced their hiking plan. Why they did that? In order to battle and bring down the raging inflation (blue trend-line) that came with the trillion dollar rescue packages during the COVID lockdowns. That is the key to our question before and provides a more detailed answer. It is also important to consider the low unemployment rate (red trend-line) in this equation. As you see the only times in the past +30 years that we've had the Inflation peaking and pulling-back while the unemployment was bottom low and with the USD reversing, was when the Fed cut the Interest Rates after at least a year of hiking. So in order to complete the pattern we are currently in and see the USD extend its pull-back is to see the Fed cut back or at least adopt a more accommodative/ less aggressive hike with a specific horizon to stop. And the key to that as mentioned would be for them to be convinced that the current 3 month drop straight on the Inflation Rate is sustainable, thus under control. Brace for a really really interesting week ahead. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
4
Yen slips after BoJ holds the courseUSD/JPY has posted strong gains today. In the European session, the yen is trading at 147.42, up 0.78%. All eyes were on the Bank of Japan, which wrapped up a crucial 2-day policy meeting on Friday. The meeting came just days after Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervened in the currency markets after the yen had fallen close to the 152 line, a new 32-year low. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki would not confirm that the MOF had intervened for the second time in two months, but issued a blunt warning, declaring that the government was "facing off with speculators via markets." This set the stage for today's BOJ meeting. In the end, it was business as usual, as the Bank maintained ultra-low interest rates and kept its dovish guidance. The BoJ remains an outlier with its loose policy, as most other major central banks are tightening in order to curb inflation. What was noteworthy was that the central bank revised upwards its inflation forecast for fiscal 2023. Headline inflation was raised to 1.6%, up from 1.4% in July, and core inflation to 2.9%, up from 2.3% in July, with the BoJ warning that risks were skewed to the upside. The Bank also lowered its growth forecast for fiscal 2022 and 2023. Inflation has pushed above the BoJ's target of 2%, but BOJ Governor Kuroda has insisted that he will not consider tightening policy until it is clear that inflation is sustainable. There was a hint from the Bank that this may not be so far off, as today's BOJ quarterly report, noted that rising inflation is expected to "lead to sustained price rises accompanied by wage gains". The yen has paid the price for the BoJ's ultra-loose policy, tumbling some 20% against the dollar this year. With the BoJ making it clear that it won't be throwing any lifelines to the yen, the currency will be under pressure from the widening US/Japan rate differential, unless the MoF continues to intervene in the currency markets. USD/JPY faces resistance at 147.50 and 148.59 There is support at 145.23 and 143.14
by OANDA
Yen slides after BoJ holds the courseUSD/JPY has posted strong gains today. In the European session, the yen is trading at 147.42, up 0.78%. All eyes were on the Bank of Japan, which wrapped up a crucial 2-day policy meeting on Friday. The meeting came just days after Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervened in the currency markets after the yen had fallen close to the 152 line, a new 32-year low. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki would not confirm that the MOF had intervened for the second time in two months, but issued a blunt warning, declaring that the government was "facing off with speculators via markets." This set the stage for today's BOJ meeting. In the end, it was business as usual, as the Bank maintained ultra-low interest rates and kept its dovish guidance. The BoJ remains an outlier with its loose policy, as most other major central banks are tightening in order to curb inflation. What was noteworthy was that the central bank revised upwards its inflation forecast for fiscal 2023. Headline inflation was raised to 1.6%, up from 1.4% in July, and core inflation to 2.9%, up from 2.3% in July, with the BoJ warning that risks were skewed to the upside. The Bank also lowered its growth forecast for fiscal 2022 and 2023. Inflation has pushed above the BoJ's target of 2%, but BOJ Governor Kuroda has insisted that he will not consider tightening policy until it is clear that inflation is sustainable. There was a hint from the Bank that this may not be so far off, as today's BOJ quarterly report, noted that rising inflation is expected to "lead to sustained price rises accompanied by wage gains". The yen has paid the price for the BoJ's ultra-loose policy, tumbling some 20% against the dollar this year. With the BoJ making it clear that it won't be throwing any lifelines to the yen, the currency will be under pressure from the widening US/Japan rate differential, unless the MoF continues to intervene in the currency markets. USD/JPY faces resistance at 147.50 and 148.59 There is support at 145.23 and 143.14
by OANDA
Mid term electionsIn June’s masterclass I suggested the bottom of the crypto market wasn’t yet in. Since then a 40% mid bear cycle pump was profited from. Now we have a situation where volatility on the BBWP is at one of its most contracted states ever seen. Which heavily suggests a huge macro move pending. The world’s markets have been propped up for months... from Evergrand in China to Deutsche bank in Germany, or Credit Suisse in Switzerland and the Gilts in the UK. America has sold almost 90% of their strategic oil supplies just to get the price of fuel down to curb rising inflation and outrageously the definition of recession has been rewritten so as to ignore 2 quarters of negative GDP growth Oh... and repo market lending is reaching volumes similar to 2008 and 2020!! I am suggesting that the midterm election is of utmost importance to the Biden administration. Where 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. If the democrats lose the Senate then executive orders will be contested and historic mal decisions can be investigated, Inclusive of Hunter Biden’s laptop!! If the true state of the world economy was known by voters their decision making would be very different I believe. AFTER THE 8th WILL SOMETHING BREAK (MAYBE A GERMAN BANK?), WILL THE MARKETS CAPITULATE?, THE FED PIVOT? AND ASSETS BENEFIT FROM THE 18 MONTHS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STIMULUS? WILL THIS PLAY OUT THE SAME WAY AS THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND WE SEE AN 83% CORRECTION FROM BOTTOM TO TOP FINDING SUPPORT AT 12K WHICH HAS BEEN HISTORIC RESISTANCE? If this plays out it will be one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history. If it doesn't it is one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history!!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MrGoose83
The Fed expected to ease rate hikes as the economy slowsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Upon a series of US economic data failing to meet their estimates, the market now believes the Federal Reserve is bound to be less aggressive in next week’s interest rate announcement. The news has weakened the greenback against its peers, USD/CAD plunged to 1.3606, and USD/JPY declined to 147.91. EUR/USD closed higher at 0.9964, edging closer back to parity. GBP/USD rose and stabilized at 1.1467, almost gaining 200 pips. Although Australia’s inflation problem is less severe than other major countries, it recorded a 1.8% increase in the price level - higher than the projected 1.6%, while AUD/USD rose to 0.6394. Despite the API Weekly Crude Oil Inventory having increased by 4.5 million barrels, WTI crude futures only had minor gains, as it briefly went to $85.89 and closed at $85.32 barrel. Gold price rose to a high of $1,660.47 an ounce and retreated to $1,653.22.
by Mitrade_official
Long GEO Group niche REIT - cool ticker, book valueThe cliche about prison life is that I am actually integrated into it, ruined by it, when my accommodation to it is so overwhelming that I can no longer stand or even imagine freedom, life outside prison, so that my release brings about a total psychic breakdown, or at least gives rise to a longing for the lost safety of prison life. The actual dialectic of prison life, however, is somewhat more refined. Prison in effect destroys me, attains a total hold over me, precisely when I do not fully consent to the fact that I am in prison but maintain a kind of inner distance towards it, stick to the illusion that "real life is elsewhere" and indulge all the time in daydreaming about life outside, about nice things that are waiting for me after my release or escape. I thereby get caught in the vicious cycle of fantasy, so that when, eventually, I am released, the grotesque discord between fantasy and reality breaks me down. The only true solution is therefore fully to accept the rules of prison life and then, within the universe governed by these rules, to work out a way to beat them. In short, inner distance and daydreaming about Life Elsewhere in effect enchain me to prison, whereas full acceptance of the fact that I am really there, bound by prison rules, opens up a space for true hope. if there ever was such a thing as no-brainer easy money this is it. Republican sweep up in the November Primary is what the market will begin to front-run this summer targets are potentially conservative. Real Estate and Construction costs are already massively inflated, the market has not yet revalued the enterprises like GEO Group short squeeze can happen here if the retail cohort swarms it
NYSE:GEOLong
by noam_chom