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Why is it better for Europeans to keep their savings in CHF ?Why is it better for Europeans to keep their security/savings in Swiss francs rather than in euros? Hi everyone, An idea that’s a little different from usual, but today I wanted to explain why it is better for Europeans to keep their security/savings funds in Swiss Francs rather than in Euros. Let's start with some history. A strong economy, low debt and high foreign investment all combine to make the Swiss franc a strong currency and a safe haven. But the strength of the Swiss franc is not new. Today's Swiss franc draws its strength from its long history, from its economic ties with Switzerland and its main partners. Strong vs. weak currency The notion of a strong currency is quite relative: a currency can be strong against one currency, and weak against another. The euro is strong against the Japanese yen but weak against the Swiss franc. Let’s take the EUR/CHF pair as an example (in other words, what one euro is worth after conversion into Swiss francs). At the beginning of 2008, it cost about 1,638 Swiss francs to obtain 1,000 euros, whereas today it costs only 984 Swiss francs to obtain the same amount. While in absolute terms these two currencies can be considered strong, the Swiss franc has won the match against the euro over the last decade with a positive evolution of the exchange rate against the single currency. Once we understand the concept of the exchange rate between currencies and its constant fluctuation, it is not very complicated to start to have a small idea of where we want to go to benefit from it. Why is the Swiss franc so powerful? In the case of Switzerland, three important factors explain the robustness of the Swiss franc compared to other currencies: - The economic growth ; rather in good shape in comparison with the rest of the world and has managed to get through the last few crises without too much damage. - Low debt ; despite the crisis, Switzerland's debt level remains well below that of its European counterparts. While Switzerland's debt ratio does not exceed 30% of GDP, those of its neighbours soar to 116.3% for France and 153.5% for Italy. - The stability of the geopolitical context ; Unlike some monetary zones that are relatively unstable due to geopolitical factors and/or galloping inflation, Switzerland is reassuring because of its great economic and political stability. A correlation between the Swiss franc and the N100 (Euronext 100 index)? Yes, but not only that, it seems obvious from the different developments of these two assets that a correlation link is indeed present. It is relatively simple to explain. We can observe that in the past, when the N100 performs well, it attracts investors and at the same time, it increases the strength of the euro and therefore decreases the strength of the Swiss Franc. In times of economic uncertainty or recession, however, investors flee the N100 and the euro to seek refuge (hence the term "safe haven") in the Swiss franc. The strength of the Swiss franc then increases and allows the investor to continue to gain purchasing power. We can also add to this that it is a very good way for European investors who wish to keep their savings liquid to fight inflation. Indeed, in 2021, the average inflation in the euro zone was 5% while the Swiss franc rose by 4.47% against the euro. We can therefore deduce that a European who has left his liquid assets in euro has lost 5% of his purchasing power, whereas a European who has converted his liquid assets into Swiss Francs has only lost 0.53% of his purchasing power. So why is it important to keep your savings in Swiss francs? If you want to keep your savings liquid while avoiding taking too much risk, it seems obvious to me that keeping them in Swiss francs is the best solution. The Swiss franc, compared to the euro, has all the advantages of a financial investment, while retaining the liquidity of a currency. It is obviously less risky than gold or commodities and provides an average annual return of about 3% over the last ten years. It is a good way to convert these investments into cash during recessions, but also to fight inflation during periods of uncertainty or to protect savings against the rising cost of living. How to find the best conversion point? Technical analysis lovers, it's up to us, let's start with this obvious bearish channel presented since early 2018. We can observe that the Swiss franc is gaining more and more strength against the euro and continues to oscillate within this channel. At the time of writing this article (November 11, 2022) we could observe during the last month a bullish reversal pattern which has not been validated yet, but which came to test the resistance n°1 (0.99453CHF). For the time being, even with this reversal figure in daily time unit, the euro remains bearish against the Swiss franc. It is therefore still interesting to convert savings into Swiss francs. We can consider a reversal when the euro breaks the 5 resistances and especially when we have a confirmed breakout from the top of the bearish channel. From a more macroeconomic point of view, we have observed a correlation link between the N100 and the EUR/CHF, we can thus deduce that when the N100 performs, the euro gains strenght and it becomes more advantageous to keep its savings in euros. When the N100 falls, the euro falls and the Swiss franc becomes stronger. The best conversion point is therefore logically the transition from a period of sustainability for the euro zone, to a period of uncertainty. This is what we saw on 24 February following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. How can you increase your profitability by combining the Swiss franc with your investments? Let's assume that you are an average French investor, you have invested part of your savings in an ETF/Tracker representing the 40 largest French companies (Lyxor CAC 40 (DR) UCITS ETF) . You then obtain an average return of 14.36%, smoothed over the last 10 years. Although this is already a very good performance, like many investors you are suffering from the covid crisis + the Ukrainian geopolitical context which has been causing the markets to fall for over a year now. During this last year, you would have lost 5.69% due to an economic recession. If we assume that you know that when the markets are down it is better to convert your investment back into cash and more specifically into Swiss Francs, you would have validated your gains of the previous 9 years, i.e. 149.34% which you would have converted into Swiss Francs. In one year, you would have earned 7.07% more on your investment. Therefore, you would have gone from a smoothed return of 14.36% to 15.64% over the last 10 years. So you can see that combining investments with safe havens in times of crisis can help you boost your profitability. We can also add that over the last 10 years you could have converted your investment during the covid period (March 2020) which would have further increased your profitability. Conclusion The Swiss franc is your ally, so use it! Whether it is to protect your savings from inflation or to boost your profitability during periods of economic downturn, the Swiss franc is a very powerful lever for your finances and your investments. It allows you to maintain a certain amount of liquidity while suffering from more moderate inflation than in the euro zone. Disclamer I would like to remind you that if you are domiciled in France or Monaco, you must declare to the tax authorities any accounts opened, held, used (at least once) or closed during the year abroad. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ! If you have any questions, I remain at your disposal in the comment space. **************** French version **************** Pourquoi est-il préférable pour les Européens de conserver leurs fonds de sécurités/épargnes en franc suisse plutôt qu’en euros ? Bonjour à tous, Une idée un peu différente de d’habitudes, aujourd’hui je souhaitais vous expliquer pourquoi est il préférable pour les Européens de conserver leurs fonds de sécurités/économies en franc suisse plutôt qu’en euros. Commençons par un peu d'histoire. Une économie forte, un faible endettement et des investissements étrangers élevés réunissent tous les ingrédients pour faire du franc suisse une monnaie forte et une valeur refuge. Mais cette force du franc suisse n'est pas nouvelle. Le franc suisse d'aujourd'hui tire sa force de son histoire ancienne, de ses liens économiques avec la Suisse ainsi que de ses principaux partenaires. Monnaie forte vs monnaie faible La notion de monnaie forte est assez relative : une monnaie peut être forte par rapport à une monnaie, et faible par rapport à une autre. L’euro est fort par rapport au Yen japonais mais faible par rapport au franc suisse. Si l’on prend comme exemple la paire EUR/CHF (autrement dit, ce que vaut un euro après conversion en franc suisse). Il fallait débourser environ 1 638 francs suisses début 2008 pour obtenir 1000 euros, tandis qu’il suffit aujourd’hui de débourser 984 francs suisses pour obtenir la même somme. Si dans l’absolu ces deux monnaies peuvent être considérées comme fortes, le franc suisse remporte le match face à l’euro au cours de la dernière décennie avec une évolution positive du taux de change face à la monnaie unique. Une fois cette notion de taux de change entre les devises, ainsi que de cette perpétuelle fluctuation de ce dernier comprise, il n’est déjà pas très compliqué de commencer à avoir une petite idée d'où nous souhaitons aller pour en tirer profit. Pourquoi le franc suisse est-il si puissant ? Dans le cas de la Suisse, trois facteurs importants viennent expliquer la robustesse du franc suisse par rapport à d’autres monnaies : - la croissance économique  ; plutôt en forme en comparaison avec l’international et qui a su traverser les dernières crises sans trop de dommages. - le faible endettement  ; malgré la crise, le niveau d’endettement de la Suisse reste bien inférieur à celui de ses homologues européens. Si le taux d’endettement de la Suisse ne dépasse pas les 30% du PIB, ceux de ses voisins s’envolent avec 116,3% pour la France et 153,5% pour l’Italie. - la stabilité du contexte géopolitique ; Contrairement à certaines zones monétaires relativement instables en raison de facteurs géopolitiques et/ou d’une inflation galopante, la Suisse rassure de par sa grande stabilité économique et politique. Un lien de corrélation entre le franc suisse et le N100 (Euronext 100 index) ? Oui, mais pas que, il parait évident aux vues des différentes évolutions de ces deux actifs qu’un lien de corrélation est bien présent. Il est relativement simple à expliquer. Nous pouvons observer que dans le passé, lorsque le N100 performe il attire des investisseurs, par la même occasion, il fait augmenter la puissance de l’euro et contribue donc à faire diminuer la puissance du franc suisse. Tandis que lors des moment d’incertitude économique ou bien de récession, les investisseurs fuit le N100 ainsi que l’euro pour se réfugier (d’où le terme de monnaie refuge) en franc suisse. La puissance du franc suisse augmente alors et permet au investisseur de continuer à gagner du pouvoir d’achat. Nous pouvons également ajouter à cela que c’est un très bon moyen pour les investisseurs européens qui souhaitent garder leurs épargnes liquides de lutter contre l’inflation. En effet en 2021, l’inflation moyenne dans la zone euro a été de 5% tandis que le franc suisse à augmenter de 4,47% par rapport à l’euro. Nous pouvons donc en déduire qu’un Européen qui a laissé ces liquidités en euro a perdu 5% de pouvoir d’achat sur ces dernières tandis qu’un Européens qui aurait converti ces liquidités en franc suisse n’aurait quant à lui perdu que 0,53% de son pouvoir d’achat. Pourquoi est-il donc important de conserver son épargne en franc suisse ? Dans le cas où vous souhaiter garder votre épargne liquide tout en évitant de prendre des risques trop importants, il me paraît évident que la conserver en franc suisse sera la meilleure des solutions. Le franc suisse par rapport à l’euro, a tous les avantages d’un placement financier, tout en gardant la liquidité d’une monnaie. Il est évidemment moins risqué que l’or ou les matières premières et permet d’obtenir sur ces dix dernière un rendement annuel moyen d’environ 3%. C’est un bon moyen de convertir ces investissements en cash lors des récessions, mais également de lutter contre l’inflation lors des périodes d’incertitudes ou encore de protéger son épargne contre l’augmentation du coût de la vie. Comment trouver le meilleur point de conversion ? Amateur d’analyse technique, c’est à nous, commençons par cet évident canal baissier présenter depuis début 2018. Nous pouvons observer que le franc suisse prend de plus en plus de puissance par rapport à l’euro et continue d’osciller à l’intérieur de ce canal. À l’heure où j’écris cet article (le 11 novembre 2022) nous avons pu observer lors du mois dernier une figure de retournement haussière qui n’a pour l’instant certes pas été validée, mais qui est venue tester la résistance n°1 (0.99453CHF). Pour l’instant, même en présence de cette figure de retournement en unité de temps journalière, l’euro reste baissier par rapport au franc suisse. Il reste donc intéressant de convertir son épargne en franc suisse. Nous pourrons envisager un retournement lorsque l’euro viendra casser les 5 résistances et surtout lorsque nous aurons une cassure confirmée par le haut du canal baissier. D’un point de vue plus macroéconomique, nous avons pu observer un lien de corrélation entre le N100 et l’EUR/CHF, nous pouvons en déduire que lorsque le N100 performe, l’euro prend de la puissance et il devient donc plus avantageux de garder son épargne en euros. Tandis que lorsque le N100 régresse, l’euro chute et donc le franc Suisse prend plus de puissance. Le meilleur point de conversion est donc en toute logique le passage d’une période de pérennité pour la zone euro, à celle d’une période d’incertitude. C’est ce que nous avons pue observer le 24 février dernier suite à l’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie. Comment augmenter sa rentabilité en combinant le franc suisse à ses investissements ? Partons du principe que vous êtes un investisseur français lambda, vous avez placé une partie de vos économies sur un ETF/Tracker représentant les 40 plus grosses sociétés françaises ( Lyxor CAC 40 (DR) UCITS ETF ). Vous obtenez alors un rendement moyen lissé sur les 10 dernières années de 14.36%. Bien que ce soit déjà une très belle performance, comme beaucoup d’investisseur vous subissez la crise du covid + le contexte géopolitique ukrainien qui fait chuter les marchés depuis maintenant plus d’un an. Lors de cette dernière année, vous auriez perdu 5,69% dû à une récession économique. Si nous partons du principe que vous savez que lorsque les marchés s’essouffle qu’il est préférable de reconvertir votre investissement en cash et plus particulièrement en franc suisse, vous auriez alors validée vos gains des 9 années précédentes, cette à dire 149,34% que vous auriez alors converti en franc suisse. Ce qui en une année, vous aurez permis de gagner 7,07 % en plus sur votre investissement. Vous seriez donc passé d’un rendement lissé sur ces 10 dernières années de 14,36% à 15,64%. Vous comprenez donc que combiner l’investissement ainsi que les valeurs refuges en temps de crise peut vous aider à booster votre rentabilité. Nous pouvons ajouter à cela qu'au cours des 10 dernières années vous auriez également pu convertir votre investissement lors de la période du covid (mars 2020) ce qui aurez encore augmenter votre rentabilité. Conclusion Le franc suisse est votre allié alors utilisé le ! Que ce soit pour protéger votre épargne de l’inflation ou bien pour booster votre rentabilité lors des périodes d’essoufflement, le franc suisse est un effet de levier très puissant pour vos finances et vos investissements. Il permet de conserver une certaine liquidité tout en subissant une inflation plus modérée que dans la zone euro. Disclamer Je tiens à rappeler que si vous êtes domicilié en France ou à Monaco, vous devez déclarer à l'administration fiscale les comptes ouverts, détenus, utilisés (au moins une fois) ou clos dans l'année à l'étranger. CECI N'EST PAS UN CONSEIL EN INVESTISSEMENT ! Si vous avez des questions, je reste à votre disposition dans l'espace commentaire. **************** Thanks to Owen (owensn) for his help with the translation. ****************
Long
by UnknownUnicorn35464780
1
HTF Dxy is still bullish!DXY started forming a bearish structure due to heavy news we got last weeks. Can we see a bullish move next week? DXY may push higher in the short term to the next supply zone 109. Technically, DXY is reaching a critical and a psychological are 105.0 and also an unmitigated demand zone that can attract buyers to push the USD higher for the short term. Fundamentally, The index extends the sharp decline in the aftermath of US inflation figures and against the backdrop of a firmer sentiment in the risk-linked galaxy. In the meantime, investors’ repricing of a probable pivot in the Fed’s policy now emerges as a fresh and quite reliable source of weakness for the dollar, in line with a corrective decline in US yields across the curve.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by thetradeveler
XAUUSD potential retracement and entrydownbeat US CPI data about inflation led a market rally which bulls are looking for clues to extend. There was a classic textbook double bottom after which the downtrend reversed into said rally. I myself caught a buy from 1712 to 1731 which was nice. I expect a retracement to 0.786 and probably price consolidation for the next day between 1 and 0.786. When the new York session opens on the 12th of November a bullish movement maybe present. Sorry for the lack of detail today, have been busy with uni A more detailed idea will be published shortly, TRADE WITH CAUTION GOOD DAY
FX:XAUUSD
by haadimilli
1
Treasuries After CPIToday’s cooler readings on inflation and jobless claims were welcome news for stock-market bulls. They could be even more important for the Treasury market. Today we’re considering the yields of the of two-year (US02Y) and 10-year (TNX) notes. The two-year shot to a 16-year high above 4.8 percent on November 4 after non-farm payrolls but failed to hold: a shooting star. It’s also noteworthy that the data had a touch of “Goldilocks,” with total jobs and unemployment both higher than forecast. Those headlines, and subsequent lows, potentially confirm the shooting star as a reversal pattern. There’s also a rising trendline along the lows of August and September that was broken on Thursday. Both events may suggest two-year Treasury yields have peaked. Next is the weekly chart of 10-year Treasury yields. They touched 4.33 percent in mid-October, the highest level since June 2008. Two inside weekly candles followed, potentially indicating a halt to the uptrend. These patterns together, combined with the Euro solidly back above parity, could mark a change from the kind of price action that’s characterized most of 2022. It could have a positive impact on broader sentiment if it continues. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:US02Y
by TradeStation
1
GBP/USD rockets as US inflation dipsThe British pound has soared today, following the US inflation report. GBP/USD is trading at 1.1661, up a massive 2.7%. The October inflation report was lower than what everyone had expected, which has triggered strong volatility in the currency markets. The US dollar is sharply lower against the majors, as the markets are expecting the Fed to ease up on interest rates after today's favourable inflation data. Headline CPI dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% in September and below the consensus of 8.0%. Core inflation slowed to 6.3%, down from 6.6% and lower than the forecast of 6.5%. The surprisingly low numbers have turned rate pricing on its head. Prior to the inflation release, the markets had priced in 55% for a 50 bp increase and 45% for a 75 bp hike. This has changed to 80-20 in favor of a 50 bp hike, which has sent the US dollar into a broad retreat. The Fed may end up delivering a 50 bp move in December, but investors should remind themselves that this doesn't mean the Fed is going soft. It wasn't too long ago that a 0.50% hike was considered 'supersize'; it's only in comparison to 0.75% or full-point moves that a 0.50% increase can be considered dovish. Secondly, Fed Chair Powell said at last month's meeting that the terminal rate would be higher than previously expected, a clear sign that the Fed remains hawkish. The UK releases key data on Friday, and the markets are braced for soft readings. GDP for the third quarter is expected to slow to -0.5% QoQ, down from 0.2% in the second quarter. Manufacturing Production for September is expected at -0.4%, which would mark the third decline in four months. If these releases are weaker than expected, the pound could give back some of today's huge gains. There is resistance at 1.1767 and 1.1844 1.1609 and 1.1505 and providing support
by OANDA
US dollar index: DXY bull trend over as inflation cools? DXY fundamental analysis The dollar tumbled after US consumer inflation data fell more than expected in October. Annual headline inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY fell to 7.7% in October, from 8.2% the previous month and below the 8% predicted. The core measure of inflation ECONOMICS:USCIR , which excludes volatile energy and food costs, fell to 6.3% from 6.6%, falling short of expectations (6.5%). The monthly increase in headline inflation was 0.4% instead of the 0.6% that was expected, and the core increase in inflation was 0.3% instead of the 0.5% that was expected. Lower-than-expected US inflation has prompted investors speculating on slower Fed rate hikes in the future. The probabilities for the December meeting have swung in favour of a 50 basis point hike, which is currently factored with an 80% chance, up from 50% before the CPI release. The expected terminal rate at which the Fed's rising cycle will terminate in May 2023 has decreased to 4.80% from 5.08% before to the inflation report. This means that the markets are currently pricing in an increase of just over 75 basis points until May 2023. US 2-year Treasury yields, which reflects expectations for the Fed monetary policy sunk by 26bps to 4.3%. Expectations of Fed terminal increases and rising US 2-year Treasury yields have supported the DXY bull trend throughout the year. Reduced rate hike expectations are bad news for the dollar, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at October's FOMC meeting suggest it's premature to declare the end of the raising cycle. Technical analysis The DXY daily chart would suggest that we may be facing the end of the dollar's bullish trend, as the price action in the November 10th session actually broke down the bullish trendline of 2022, and lowered even further than the 50-day moving average. However, for a confirmation of that trend reversal in the DXY, we should likely wait until major Fibonacci retracement levels are cleared by price action. The next level of support is 107.1 (38.2% Fibonacci level of 2022 range), followed by 104.7, which would represent a 50% retracement of the 2022 dollar rally. If bears can break through that barrier, it would mean that they will be in charge of the dollar trend. However, if the Fed pushes back against the slowdown in the inflation rate and signals a more restrictive monetary policy than the market is actually pricing in, we might see some bulls reappear on DXY dip. This contrarian scenario, which seems less likely for the market, could effectively limit the downward movement of the USD.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Capitalcom
Where we're going we don't need... inflationThe date was Oct 21st, 2015. No I can't tell the future, and neither can movie makers. What I can tell is the market is aware the next CPI print will come in much lower which is estimated at 7.8. My estimate in the above chart I have coming in lower at 7.4. Sit Rep going into tomorrows print. In my previous ideas and comments I said after the rally we would test the 50D again. If that failed a test of 20D would come soon after. This sets the market up for this CPI print. WARNING!! 10Y auction today at 1pm. Yesterdays 1PM Auction of 3Y ended yesterdays rally. Expect larger distributions in both directions as market makers jokey for position. What does it mean? Expect more indecision over the next 48 hours as bond auctions thru Thursday and more volatility may surface in bitcoin. Event vol from elections will likely remain high into CPI tomorrow. Skew for the first time yesterday pulled up from its steep dive.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYvsGME
32
EURUSD Post CPI Release | Price Went Parabolic!Hi guys, Chern Yu here. Today I will be touching base on the fundamental news and effects of the CPI release. Fundamental Context 1. CPI m/m: 0.4% vs 0.6% market consensus 2. CPI y/y: 7.7% vs 8.2% previous 3. Core CPI m/m: 0.3% vs 0.6% previous CPI has definitely dropped and inflation is slowing down That is a positive outlook and sign for EURUSD who has been bearish for almost the entire year. The FED pivot might be round the corner and looking for longs seems highly probable. Market has so far been pricing in a slow down in inflation and CPI prints. With the news release today, I anticipate price to continue pushing up and for the FED to hike by 50bps in th e upcoming Dec FOMC meeting.\ I believe that there is much upside potential for EURUSD and a slowdown in rate hikes is imminent.
Long
by Jon_Jones_Junior
1
Bond Market Rallies After Inflation DataBonds have soared after yields collapsed due to CPI coming in slightly better than expected. This follows months of consistently high readings fueling a hawkish Fed. With this reading, the markets will likely start to anticipate a pivot to a less hawkish stance. ZN broke through our target of 110'27, and moved a full handle above that to 111'26. It is currently meeting resistance at 111'29 or so, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Watch for ZN to equilibrate as the news gets priced in. If we can keep going then 113'12 is the next target, otherwise, 110'27 should give support.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
Inflation Data Slams the US DollarThe US dollar has collapsed as US inflation data has finally showed signs of cooling. Yields have weakened as investors are looking for any signs of a pivot in the Fed's hawkish stance. We have smashed through several support levels, and are currently finding support above 108.50. We should see some ranging start to kick in as the markets digest the news. This level is likely to hold but if not, 107.20 is the next level down. We should see resistance in the low 109's.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
Inflation Data Fuels Ethereum RallyEthereum fell to our level at $1100 as the FTX situation worsened with Binance pulling out of the deal. We hit our support level at $1100 exactly, and saw a nice pivot there. This morning, at 8:30AM EST, US inflation data came out softer than expected, causing all risk-on markets to rally as this means the Fed is expected to ease their hawkish rhetoric for the first time in months. Ethereum blew through several levels above, including $1235 and $1288. But $1341 is still a barrier. It is likely that we will range about these levels for now, until the market fully prices in CPI data. If we retrace, the $1200's should provide support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
2
Cooling Inflation Sends Stocks SoaringThe S&P 500 has rocketed after October's data suggests that inflation is weakening. CPI came in at 7.7% against an expected 7.9%. The markets are looking for any excuse to anticipate a weaker Fed policy, and a tapering in rate hike trajectory. Yields have fallen dramatically and risk on assets are flying. The S&P 500 blasted off from 3749, through our relative high at 3848. We still have some room to go before 3909 but that is the next target. It might be the case that stocks equilibrate around these higher levels as the data gets priced in. If we retrace, expect support at 3825.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
ZZZzzzZZZzzz at 3800Good morning! Here we are, Election Day has passed and we get the CPI report tomorrow. Couple things about the Mid Terms. Generally, the markets like it when Democrats have partial control and Republicans partial control. The expectations are, that the Republicans will win the House. If that happens, that could be a good thing for the markets. At the time of writing, Republicans have 199, Democrats 172 and 64 are undecided for the House. Gotta see how that plays out. Because here's the thing. Let's say the Republicans take the House and the Democrats keep the Senate, the markets might actually like that. And with Big Tech taking a beating after all these earning announcements, they're low enough to bid on and that could push the markets higher. Whoever that dude at Morgan Stanley was last week, saying that we could see 4000 or 4100 in the near term, might actually be right if it plays out this way. But remember, longer term, we have significant headwinds and this is still a Bear Market. CPI report is accumulative, like a moving average. If you add up all the monthly CPI numbers, it gives you the annualized CPI. It's going to stay high because at the beginning of this year, we were seeing CPI numbers at about 1%. So when we add all these monthly's up, we're going to get a high number. Obviously, over time, this will come down. Which is why expectations are to get to 4% by early Q2 or abouts. So, if the Republicans' don't take the House, and the CPI report is hot. What does that mean for the markets? Well, we could head back down starting tomorrow or Friday. Either way, these are two possible outcomes that could play out. Plan for the Day: We're technically still in No Man's Land but with a slightly more Bullish lean right now. IF I decide to chase this up to 4000, or 4100, I will do so cautiously and wait for an exhausting point in the rally. We might just hang out here at 3800 today until all the results come in and then tomorrow we could see the true direction. I'll sit on my hands again and just watch the market. Be patient, stay disciplined and trade the market in front of you. Happy Trading!
SP:SPX
by MMOTA_
🔴 XAUUSD : Inflation Data (CPI) effectAs you can see, the price took the second scenario and entered its 4-hour Bearish Order Block yesterday with a strong move towards the $1719 range, and this caused the price to reject from $1722 to $1702, That is, with this scenario, the price dropped by more than 200 pips, but it has not yet managed to consolidates below $1704, and according to the previous analysis, the important condition for a further drop and reaching our desired targets ($1695 and $1675) is consolidation below this price! Be careful these days the market is more tense due to the US Congress elections and you should be more careful in taking and managing your trades ! 🔴 CPI (m/m) : USD 🔴 CPI (y/y) : USD 🔴 Core CPI (m/m) : USD 🟠 Unemployment Claims : USD 📌 Waiting for Inflation Data of this month! 📎 Usual Effect : ‘Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency! 📒 Why do we care ? Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate ! The Main Analysis before Updates : The Caption of it : As you can see, the price with a Spike growth yesterday caused a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that caused by liquidity Void , this range is from $1675 to $1708, in such cases different scenarios can happen that the final result Each can be shared! This means that in the first scenario, if the price consolidates below $1710 and it closes below $1704 , we can expect this gap to be filled and the price will fall to $1695 as the first target and $1675 as the last target! The second scenario is growth again up to the Bearish Order Block (from $1719 to $1729) and then reject from this level! The third scenario is growth up to LMH (the highest price recorded in the previous month) to collect liquidity and then a powerful rejection from this level! Decision making based on each of these scenarios is based on the trigger at the moment! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 11.10.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
11
Looking at price action on AUDUSD following CPI reportsInflation is one of the key factors in FED's decisions. It is expected to move the market every time it gets released, especially now that FED is watching. Previous CPI was on 13/10 - 0.6% against 0.4% forecasted. There wasn't any directional move on that day, just liquidity sweep on both sides. Before that, another report came out on 13/09 - 0.6% against 0.3% forecasted. Price broke out previous session's high before the event and dropped massively with its announcement. So far, this is a never-look-back level. On 10/08, there was second of only two reports this year that turned out with negative surprise - 0.3% against 0.5% forecasted. There isn't any immediate low or high breach worth mentioning, the price just rocketed through everything in close vicinity. However, as I marked with Yellow line, there was a significant swing high in 60 days period that was breached only for price to return below it and never look back after. I am adding daily chart below with all of the reports. From the daily chart, we may conclude that CPI report has a tendency to create Monthly or even multi-month Lows and Highs. Just in the latest 60 day window, the highest price was September's CPI, the lowest price in that window is October's CPI. With the exception of June, the reports always created a significant High or Low or were or were only one day away from it. Most CPI candles also exert visibly above-average movement and like to take on liquidity in close proximity to the price. A negative surprise (inflation lower than expected) would likely lead above 0.655, perhaps up to 0.66, but is unlikely to change the trend. This would, therefore, be another highest high for months to come. A positive surprise could quicklu steer the price below 0.625. I don't think it will go back up on positive surprise, it looks like that would high resistance run, because the price has provably tried to go there and failed on Wednesday's London session. It dropped instead and following New York session made another attempt, yet did not even beat London session there. Legend: Lines: Violet - Monthly Highs and Lows Dark blue - Weekly Highs and Lows Cyan semi-transparent - Daily Highs and Lows Cyan dashed semi-transparent - New York Midnight Yellow semi-transparent thick - estimated liquidity area Other: Purple channel - Single Print, price went either down or up without any overlaps on higher timeframe charts Yellow, blue, ted rectangles - key forex sessions, first three hours
by OrcChieftain
S&P500 short analysis!!30 min time frame. used Fibonacci to draw (ABC) correction waves. this days, US markets are been a lot volatile. LET ME KEEP MY OPINION OF WHY MARKETS ARE VOLATILE: SINCE MANY OF THEM THINK THAT US INFLATION HAS REACHED ITS PEAK, AND ON THE FLIP SIDE MANY OTHERS THINK IT YET MORE NEEDS TO TRAVEL UP. this basically is causing a lot of volume in the markets. bulls and bears are acting to there strategy. ONE TIP: during volatile markets, be on cash, or invest in low risk assets. be careful, keep having an eye. trade with your own risk.
SP:SPXShort
by raghavchoudhary2016