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Inflation

Trump's Impact on Interest Rates: Higher Rates Ahead?After Trump’s decisive win on November 6th, Bitcoin, the USD, and yields (or interest rates) moved higher. In fact, these markets began moving upward in September, more than a month before Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States. We will study the direction of interest rates based on the actual market sentiment as reflected in U.S. bond yields. 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
2
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY @2.6% (October/2024) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - US Inflation Rate Picks Up The annual inflation rate in the US increased to 2.6% in October, from 2.4% in September and in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, CPI rise by 0.2%, consistent with the previous three months with shelter index up 0.4%, accounting for over half of the monthly increase. Meanwhile, core inflation stayed at 3.3% annually and 0.3% monthly.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Trump Presidency Ignites Bond Yields on Inflation ExpectationsThe “Make America Great Again” ethos has set the greenback on fire. Donald Trump's re-election has the US dollar surging 2%, extending its rally since early October to a total gain of 5%. This resurgence is despite the anticipated 25 basis points (“bps”) rate cut at the November FOMC meeting. Dollar rally is driven by expectations of potential policy changes by the Trump Presidency. HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNDER TRUMP 2.0 Trump’s election victory, combined with the Republican sweep of the Senate and the House of Representatives, gives the party the leverage to enact swift and substantial legislative changes. His policies, such as corporate-friendly tax cuts & light-touch regulations, are expected to amplify corporate growth. These policies, combined with import tariff imposition, are expected to drive inflation higher. Rising inflation will curtail the pace of rate cuts by the Fed. Rate cut expectations have eased since election. On November 6 (election day), projections pointed to rates reaching 350-375 bps on election day (6/Nov) per CME FedWatch tool. Now, they are expected to reach 375-400 bps. Trump has previously pushed the Fed towards accommodative rate environment. Fed Chair Powell re-iterated that the Fed remains independent and data driven. Source: CME FedWatch Trump's proposed tariff policy will further strengthen the dollar. In August 2023, Trump announced plans for a universal 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, reiterating that tariffs on Chinese goods could be even higher, potentially reaching 60%-100%. Such tariffs are expected to drive inflation higher. It will raise consumer prices and provoke retaliatory actions from trading partners, worsening inflation. Trump aims for these tariffs to revitalize American manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports which collectively support a stronger dollar. STRONGER DOLLAR TRIGGER BOND YIELD SURGE The resurgent dollar has contributed to the sharp rally in bond yields. The yield rally since October has resulted in the 10Y yield rising by 60 bps. Yields initially surged after the election result but partially reversed the following day after the FOMC meeting. It currently stands 5 bps higher than the pre-election level. Unlike the yield, the yield spread has remained flat since October. Higher for longer rates act to push this spread lower. The Federal Reserve reaffirmed (at its Nov meeting) its dovish tone as Powell pointed to signs of an easing job market and slowing inflation. However, its impact on curbing bond yields was limited. According to a JP Morgan report , while Fed Chair Powell has consistently conveyed a dovish tone over the years, the Fed's actual decisions have often skewed hawkish. Although Powell’s dovish statements have initially brought bond yields down, the hawkish policy actions and Fed’s wait and watch approach that followed have typically led to renewed yield increases. This explains why yields continue to rise despite Powell’s dovish remarks at the November meeting. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Treasury bond yields have been on the rise since October and Trump’s win has supercharged the rally. Investors are expecting higher inflation due to Republican policies which favour corporate growth. Import tariff, if enacted, would have an even larger impact on the dollar and bond yields. However, actual policy plans remain uncertain for now. While yields initially surged after the elections, they partially reversed shortly after as the Fed signalled a dovish stance. Despite this, the 10Y-2Y yield spread has remained unchanged. Resurgent inflation will lead to the Fed slowing the pace of rate cuts. The recent reversal in yield spreads may be unsustainable given the expectation for slower rate cuts. When Trump administration announces policy plans, yields could surge even more strongly. This week’s CPI release is anticipated to influence bond market movements. Analysts expect October’s YoY inflation to remain steady at 2.4%. If inflation holds at this level, it may have minimal impact, aligning with the Fed’s "watch and wait" strategy. However, a sharper-than-expected drop in inflation could reinforce expectations of quicker Fed rate cuts. With the impact of inflation most apparent on the longer-tenor yields, investors can focus the position on the 10Y-2Y spread. CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis-point change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This simplifies spread calculations with a 1 bps change in spread representing profit & loss of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively. However, with CME Group’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of 12/Nov, making this trade even more capital efficient. A hypothetical long position on the CME 10Y yield futures and a short position on the 2Y yield futures offers a reward to risk ratio of 1.3x is described below. Entry: 6.2 basis points Target: -11.5 basis points Stop Loss: 20 basis points Profit at Target: USD 177 ((6.2 - (-11.5)) x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 138 ((6.2 - 20) x 10) Reward to Risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Short
by mintdotfinance
A capture of inflation, dilution and stimulus /2024As we see by the chart, we had a series of events mostly around mega-stimulus for Covid and a massive dilution of currency as triggering events. Inflation rose and is now back down close to the desirable 2% inflation. We don't want prices to go back to where they were, that is deflation and is not healthy for an economy. We want prices to stay near the same year after year with modest inflation. When inflation rises too fast, we increase interest rates to slow down spending, to reduce inflation. The best we can do is work on wage growth to accommodate the inflation from our past years while maintaining modest inflation. At 2.4% inflation currently, there really is pretty much nothing to fix anymore, we just need to keep it around where it is, a little lower really and work on modest wage growth. Looking at this data, it really looks like the vast majority of the culpability of that inflation we had came from 2020, one of the single worst years financially as a country with inflation starting to rise immediately in 2021, and exacerbated some in 2021. Looking at this chart, there is a tangible possibility that we see >10% inflation by 2027 Here is the M2 money supply chart:
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by EncryptShawn
Japan’s consumer spending slips, yen extends gainsThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.38, down 0.36% on the day. The yen has taken traders on a roller-coaster ride this week, plunging 2% on Wednesday and rebounding on Thursday with a 1.1% gain. Japan’s household spending fell by 1.1% y/y in September, following a 1.9% drop in August. This was better than the market estimate of -2.1%. Household spending has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, as consumer confidence fell in October and inflation is relatively high. On a monthly basis, household spending decreased 1.3%, after a strong 2% gain in August. This beat the market estimate of 0.7%. The weak yen is also weighing on consumers, who are being squeezed as their purchasing power has fallen. The yen fell to three-month lows this week against the dollar and if the downswing continues, the Bank of Japan will be under pressure to respond with a rate hike. Although consumers are holding tight on the purse strings, wages have been rising and the BoJ is hopeful that will translate into increased consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. Consumer spending makes up more than half of the economy and BoJ is unlikely to make further rate hikes until it sees stronger consumer spending. The markets don’t expect a rate hike until early 2025. The Federal Reserve didn’t surprise anyone with a 25-basis point rate cut on Wednesday. This is the second cut in the easing cycle after an oversized 50-bp chop in September. The vote was unanimous and unlike the Bank of Japan, the Fed has been transparent and telegraphed its plan to cut rates ahead of the meeting. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in the coming meeting and will be keeping a close eye on inflation and employment reports. USD/JPY faces resistance at 153.44 and 154.17 152.16 and 151.43 are the next support levels
by OANDA
BTC, S&P, USD: Market react to trump victory Former President Donald Trump claimed a sweeping victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race. As a result, the U.S. stock market surged, with Tesla, banks, and bitcoin all charging higher. Trump’s pledge to slash the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% could lift S&P 500 earnings by roughly 4%, according to projections from Goldman Sachs. The dollar index climbed more than 2%, topping 105 for the first time in four months, as markets priced in a stronger greenback under a Trump administration. Investors anticipate his policies will fuel inflation, which would pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates to prevent an overheated economy. Bitcoin hit record highs as well, boosted by Trump’s campaign promise to champion cryptocurrency. Bitcoin surged to an all-time high on Wednesday, spurred by expectations of a favorable regulatory environment. How much of Trump’s agenda will become reality remains to be seen, with Republicans’ control of Congress yet undecided.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
How the U.S. Election Outcome Could Shape DXY's pathHey Traders! In today’s trading session, we’re closely watching the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 102.800 zone. Recently, DXY has been trending downward but managed to break out of that downtrend, signaling a possible shift in momentum. Right now, it’s in a corrective phase and approaching the retracement level near the 102.800 support and resistance zone. Fundamental Analysis: U.S. Election Impact on the Dollar Today’s election could significantly impact the U.S. dollar, with the outcome likely to shape future economic policies. Here’s how each candidate’s policies might influence DXY: If Trump Wins: A Trump victory is expected to strengthen the dollar. Here’s why: Higher Inflation and Interest Rates: Trump’s policies, including potential tariffs and stricter immigration, are seen as inflationary. Tariffs can increase the cost of imported goods, while reduced immigration may create labor shortages, both driving inflation higher. Federal Reserve’s Stance: Higher inflation would prompt the Fed to reconsider future rate cuts and possibly lean toward raising rates to control inflation. Higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive, as investors seek better returns. Tax Cuts and Economic Boost: Trump’s proposed tax cuts are likely to stimulate economic growth in the short term. A booming economy typically supports a stronger dollar as investors favor a robust market. In this scenario, DXY would likely respond positively, and we could see a strong upward movement. If Harris Wins: On the other hand, a Harris victory could weaken the dollar due to different policy priorities: Lower Inflation and More Fed Flexibility: Harris’s policies are expected to focus more on economic support, potentially through spending programs and fewer tariffs. Lower inflationary pressure gives the Fed more room to keep rates low or even consider cuts. Market Reaction: Investors may anticipate a slower economic rebound, favoring a weaker dollar, as demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar could decrease. Your vote is very important! Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar surpassed our Mean Resistance level of 1.083 during this week's trading session, demonstrating enough strength to initiate a robust interim rebound. However, ongoing selling pressure has pushed the Eurodollar back down to our Mean Support level of 1.083, which now acts as the inverse of the previous resistance. The Euro will likely decline further, potentially hitting the Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 through Mean Support at 1.078. This price action will be significant and trigger an interim rebound to the newly established Mean Support level of 1.082.
by TradeSelecter
$EUIRYY -Europe's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2% (October/2024) +0.3% source: EUROSTAT -Annual inflation in the Euro Area accelerated to 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September which was the lowest level since April 2021, and slightly above forecasts of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates. This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates. Inflation has now reached the European Central Bank’s target. In October, energy cost fell at a slower pace (-4.6% vs -6.1%) and prices rose faster for food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9% vs 2.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.4%). On the other hand, services inflation steadied at 3.9%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 2.7%, the lowest since February 2022 but above forecasts of 2.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.1% fall in September.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD shrugs as eurozone CPI rises to 2%The euro is flat on Thursday after three straight winning days. In the European session, EUR/USD is unchanged on the day, trading at 1.0854. Eurozone inflation rose to 2% y/y in October, up from 1.7% in September and above the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the fastest increase since April. The main drivers of the inflation increase were services and food prices. Services inflation continues to be a headache for the European Central Bank, unchanged at 3.9% and almost double the target. Monthly, CPI rose 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in September. Core CPI remained at 2.7% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.6% and the lowest level since February 2022. How will the European Central Bank react to the inflation report? The central bank has been in the forefront of the rate-cutting trend, having lowered interest rates three times this year. The ECB is expected to trim rates at the December meeting, although the October inflation data indicates that inflation has not yet been fully contained. ECB President Lagarde said after the inflation release that she expects inflation will sustainably reach the 2% target in 2025. The eurozone labor market remains strong despite a sluggish economy. Thursday’s unemployment report showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in September, down from 6.4% in August and the lowest level since the eurozone was establish in 1999. The ECB, like other major central banks, will have to balance a strong labor market against weakening inflation as it determines its rate path for the coming months. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0885 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0913 1.0842 and 1.0814 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
The time will comeIt might become a 20$-Stock like Chapman said.. but until then.. you have to preserve your capital.. ---STD-TEXT: Stan Weinstein's method of trading stocks focuses on identifying a stock's position within its four-stage cycle: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend. His strategy emphasizes buying stocks in the uptrend stage, where they break out of consolidation with high volume and continue above the 30-week moving average, signaling a strong upward momentum. Weinstein advises selling once the stock enters the downtrend stage, as it drops below the 30-week moving average, thus minimizing losses and preserving gains.
TSX:GLOLong
by Benbarian
German 10 year bund (yield chart) giant HS patternGerman 10 year bund keeps scaling. Price action is reflected on the charts. On the long term, seems like the german 10 year bund is building a huge Head and Shoulders pattern. That would be consistent with rates going down in the eurozone. But… if the German bund should spike over 2.50%, that would probably mean that euro rate cuts will be on hold for longer than expected. IMO, it’s all about geopolitics, as it’s also related to oil/natural gas supply from the east, commercial war with the USA, China and India, etc. all of them are inflationary and would also be pushing government spending to the upside on military and defense systems, detracting investment capacity from the private sectors… All to be seen in coming weeks… any insights you would like to share about the topic, please let me know!
TVC:EU10Y
by j_arrieta
XAUUSD (GOLD) Reaching 3000$ this yearDear Traders, Here's how gold could potentially reach $3000 (or rather, $3,000) by year-end if more rate cuts occur: Lower Rates Mean Lower Yield on Alternatives: When central banks cut interest rates, bond yields often decrease, making non-yielding assets like gold more appealing as a store of value. Investors may shift toward gold, driving up demand and prices. Weaker Dollar Effect: Rate cuts can lead to a weaker U.S. dollar. Since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar often makes it cheaper for international investors, increasing demand and potentially boosting its price. Economic Uncertainty and Inflation Hedge: With lower rates, there's a risk of rising inflation, as cheaper borrowing often fuels spending. Gold is seen as a traditional hedge against inflation, so as inflation expectations rise, investors may buy more gold to preserve their wealth. Safe-Haven Demand: Rate cuts sometimes signal an economic slowdown or recession risks. In uncertain economic times, investors turn to safe-haven assets like gold, potentially pushing prices higher. If the Fed moves toward significant rate cuts, each of these factors could align, creating strong demand for gold and possibly driving it closer to $3,000. Greetings, Zila
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
1
Tokyo Core CPI complicates BoJ’s rate plansThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.94, up 0.09%. Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of inflation trends in Japan, fell to 1.8% y/y in October, down from 2% in September and just above the market estimate of 1.7%. This marked a second straight deceleration and was the lowest level since April. A key service inflation indicator also slowed in October, dropping from 2.7% to 2.6%, a four-month low. The decline in inflation is a disappointment for the Bank of Japan, which wants to see inflation remain sustainable around its 2% target before its raises interest rates on the path towards normalization. The BoJ meets next week and is expected to maintain rates. The central bank will release growth and inflation forecasts which could provide insights into future monetary policy. The cautious BoJ is unlikely to raise rates until early next unless inflation reverses its current downtrend and pushes higher. The US wraps up the week with core durable goods orders and UoM consumer sentiment. The manufacturing sector has contracted for four straight months and core durable goods orders are expected to fall 1% in September, after no change in August. The UoM consumer sentiment index is expected to fall to 68.9 in October, compared to 70.1 a month earlier. Consumers are unhappy about high inflation and there is uncertainty over the US election, with an extremely tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 1.5207. The next resistance line is 152.58 151.30 and 150.79 are providing support
by OANDA
Gold is surging while Crude Oil is laggingHere is a ratio chart of Gold OANDA:XAUUSD and Crude Oil $USOIL. Historically you can see it goes to extremes. Especially in 2020 when crude oil went to zero (and negative). I cut that spike out of the chart so hopefully it shows here. When the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009 hit, crude oil hit $140 and gold was low which set up the bottom of this chart on the lower-left. Crude was expensive and gold was cheap. The opposite happened during Covid when crude plunged and gold stayed relatively calm. These are generational trades that can make traders rich but they take too long for the average small investor to stay focused and take advantage of these setups. With Gold now at the upper end of the range of this ratio, it is time to start looking elsewhere to protect your wealth. Can this ratio continue higher? Yes, of course. I point it out as a starting point for your trading. If you are just getting long gold up here now, you need to understand where the historical range is for this ratio and decide if you want energy to keep you warm and let you travel or do you want a store of money. It is always a trade-off between the two. You can't live with only one of these commodities. Cheers. Tim 12:33PM EST, October 22, 2024
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by timwest
3
EUR/USD lower, ECB’s Kazimir confident in ‘disinflation path’The euro has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0838, down 0.24% on the day. The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate last week by a 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first back-to-back rate cuts since December 2011. The rate cut was the third time the ECB has lowered rates this year, as it has been aggressive in its rate-cutting cycling, totaling 75 basis points. The rate statement from last week’s meeting noted that the “disinflationary process is well on track” and that the inflation outlook had improved due to “recent downside surprises” in economic activity. The September inflation report, released just before the rate announcement on Thursday, indicated that inflation dropped to 1.7% y/y, down from 1.8% in August. This was a milestone as it was the first time inflation has dropped below the ECB’s target of 2% since July 2021. The optimistic stance was reiterated by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who said on Monday that he expects inflation to drop to the 2% target in 2025. Kazimir said he was “increasingly confident that the disinflation path is on a solid footing” which would allow the ECB to continue cutting interest rates. The ECB remains somewhat cautious, particularly over wage growth and services inflation which have been stubbornly high and are upside risks to the inflation outlook. Still, after three rate cuts this year it’s clear that the direction of the rate path is down and the markets expect the ECB to continue trimming rates right through to March 2025. EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.0854 and is testing support at 1.0837. Below, there is support at 1.0808 1.0884 and 1.0900 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.5% (September/2024) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.5% in September 2024 from 3.0% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since April. Electricity prices increased the least in three months as the impact of energy subsidy removal in May waned (15.2% vs. 26.2% in August), and the cost of gas rose much more slowly (7.7% vs. 11.1%). Moreover, costs moderated for food (3.4% vs. 3.6%), furniture & household utensils (4.8% vs. 5.2%), transport (0.1% vs. 0.2%), and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%). Additionally, prices fell further for communication (-2.6% vs. -2.4%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%). On the other hand, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.7%) and healthcare (1.5%), while edging higher for clothes (2.4% vs. 2.3%) and miscellaneous (0.9% vs. 0.8%). Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a five-month low of 2.4%, down from August's 2.8%, compared with the consensus of 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.3%, pointing to the first drop since February 2023.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
EUR/USD dips after ECB lower ratesThe euro can’t find its footing and has tumbled 2.7% in October. EUR/USD has stabilized on Friday and is trading at 1.0835 in the European session, up 0.05%. On Thursday, the euro dropped as low as 1.0810, its lowest level since August 2. The European Central Bank didn’t surprise anybody with a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, the first back-to-back rate cuts since December 2011. The markets had fully priced in the move and the euro responded with slight losses. ECB President Lagarde has discarded forward guidance and stressed that rate decisions will be on a meeting-by-meeting basis, but the markets smelled a rate cut, with low inflation and weak economic growth. The rate statement was optimistic, noting that the “disinflationary process is well on track” and that the inflation outlook had improved due to “recent downside surprises” in economic activity. The ECB has cut rates three times this year and is expected to remain aggressive. The markets expect are forecasting rate cuts of 25 basis points at each of the next three meetings. The eurozone inflation release, made just before rate announcement on Thursday, showed inflation falling to 1.7% y/y, down from the initial estimate of 1.8% and below the 2.2% gain in August. The decline in inflation was helped by a sharp drop in energy prices. Services inflation remains high but eased to 3.1% y/y, down from 2.9% in August. The inflation report reached a milestone, dropping below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time since July 2021. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0835. Above, there is resistance at 1.0866 1.0803 and 1.0776 are the next support levels
by OANDA
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7% source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%. The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels. Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001. Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023. In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
GBP/USD drops below 1.30 on soft inflation reportThe British pound has finally showed some movement on Wednesday after a week of limited movement. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2992, down 0.62% on the day. The pound fell below the symbolic 1.30 level for the first time since August 20. The UK inflation report for September was projected to hit a milestone and fall below the BoE’s 2% target, but the reading exceeded expectations. CPI fell to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.2% in August and below the market estimate of 1.9%. This was the lowest level since April 2021 and was driven by lower prices for petrol and airfares. Services inflation, which has been stubbornly high, dropped from 5.6% y/y to 4.9%, its lowest level since May 2022. Monthly, CPI was flat, below 0.3% in August and below the market estimate of 0.1%. Core CPI also decelerated in September and was lower than expected (3.2% y/y and 0.1% m/m). As well, wage growth slowed to 4.9% in the three months to August, down from 5.1% previously. The Bank of England will be encouraged by the drop in inflation and in wages. The UK economy is groaning under the weight of a cash rate of 5% and the markets are looking at a rate cut in November as a done deal, while a December cut is a strong possibility. Many major central banks have shifted their primary focus from inflation risks to the labor market, and we could see the same with the BoE, now that inflation is back below the BoE’s target. GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.3071, 1.3039 and 1.3004. The next support level is 1.2972 1.3106 and 1.3138 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA