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Inflation

Australian dollar edges lower, CPI nextThe Australian dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6638 in the North American session, down 0.27% on the day. Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index flexed some muscle earlier on Tuesday but that didn’t help the Australian dollar. The index jumped 1.7% in June, a strong turnaround after three straight declines. Despite the improvement, consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, at 83.6. The index has been mired below 100 for over two years as pessimistic continue to outnumber optimists by a wide margin. Consumers have long been concerned that the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates, which at 4.35% are already at a 12-year high. The RBA remains concerned about sticky inflation and has warned that it could raise rates if inflationary pressures don’t ease. Inflation rose in April from 3.5% to 3.6% and May CPI, which will be released on Wednesday, is expected to rise to 3.8%. If inflation did accelerate in May, it could set up another hold in rates and possibly a rate hike when the RBA meets in July. The RBA left interest rates at 4.35% at the June meeting for a seventh straight time and discussed the possibility of a rate hike at that meeting. Inflation will be on center stage again on Thursday with the release of the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations, which is expected to rise to 4.3% in June, after a 4.1% gain in May. In the US, Conference Board Consumer Confidence dipped to 100.4 in June, down from the revised 101.3 in May and just above the market estimate of 100.0, which separates pessimism from optimism. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6635. Below, there is support at 0.6591 0.6685 and 0.6729 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/CAD Pressured but Policy Divergence Still FavorableUSD/CAD has entered its third straight losing week and faces renewed pressures today after the upside surprise in Canadian inflation. Crucially, Core CPI accelerated 1.6% y/y in May, snapping its five-months declining streak. The Bank of Canada had slashed rates earlier this month, for the first time four years and had hinted at further easing if inflation continued to decelerate. But today’s hot CPI report, casts some doubt over the disinflation process and the policy path. The pair remains is risk of bigger decline below the 38.2% Fibonacci of the December-April advance. Sustained weakness towards and beyond 1.3419 has a higher degree of difficulty though. However, today’s hot report is not the end of the disinflation process and is likely not enough to bar further rate cuts by the BoC. Its US counterpart meanwhile is reluctant to pivot due to inflation persistence and Fed officials see just one cut this year, despite more optimistic market pricing for two moves. This monetary policy divergence remains a tailwind for USD/CAD. On the technical front, the pair has already defended the critical 38.2% Fibonacci and another bounce off would reaffirm the upside bias and allow the bulls to push for new 2024 highs (1.3846). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
1
Australian dollar calm ahead of consumer confidenceAustralian dollar has started the week quietly. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6648 early in the North American session, up 0.11% on the day. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment early on Tuesday. Consumer confidence has been weak and fell 0.3% in May to 82.4, following a 2.4% decline in April. Consumers have been pessimistic about the weak economy and concerns that sticky inflation could prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike interest rates. The RBA has maintained its stance of “higher for longer”, holding rates at 4.35% for the past five meetings. The central bank hasn’t shied away from warning that it could raise rates if inflationary pressures don’t ease. The April CPI report surprised on the upside, rising from 3.5% to 3.6%, above the market estimate of 3.5%. The May CPI report will be released on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 3.8%. If inflation does rise again, we will no doubt hear the RBA express its concern and reiterate that rate hikes remain on the table. The economy is barely treading above water and posted a weak 0.1% gain in the first quarter, but the labor market, which is surprisingly tight, continues to confound the RBA and has dampened any hope of a rate cut in the near term. There are no US releases on Monday but we’ll hear from two FOMC members, Christopher Waller and Mary Daly. Investors will be hoping for some insights about the Fed’s rate path. The Federal Reserve has been hawkish as inflation has been stickier than anticipated. The markets have priced in a rate cut in September at around 60%, according to CME’s FedWatch. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6655. Above, there is resistance at 0.6685 0.6591 and 0.6541 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD shrugs despite sparkling retail salesThe British pound is slightly lower on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2636 early in the North American session, down 0.17% on the day. UK retail sales jumped 2.9% m/m in May, an impressive turnaround from the revised 1.8% decline in April and blowing past the market estimate of 1.8%. This was the highest level since January. Yearly, retail sales climbed 1.3%, rebounding from a revised 2.3% drop in April and above the market estimate of -0.9%. This marked the sharpest gain since March 2022. The increase in consumer spending was felt across the economy, as rising wages have helped consumers withstand weak economic growth and high interest rates. The weather was a key factor, as a very wet April dampened retail sales, which rebounded in what was the warmest May on record. UK GfK Consumer Confidence rose to -14 in June, up from -17 in May and above the market estimate of -17. Consumers remain pessimistic but the confidence indicator has climbed for three straight months and hit its highest level since November 2021. The Bank of England stayed on the sidelines on Thursday, keeping the benchmark rate of 5.25% unchanged for an eighth straight time. The BoE upgraded its growth forecast for the second quarter and that could mean an August rate cut, which would be the first cut since the BoE embarked on its steep rate-hike cycle to tame high inflation. Earlier in the week, inflation dropped to 2%, the BoE’s target, for the first time in almost three years. The fly in the ointment is that service inflation is running at 5.7% and will have to come down before the BoE cuts rates. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2633. Below, there is support at 1.2608 There is resistance at 1.2679 and 1.2704
by OANDA
GBP/USD lower as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is lower on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2683 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.29% on the day. The Bank of England held rates at today’s meeting, as expected. There are no releases out of the US today. There were no surprises as the Bank of England maintained interest rates at today’s meeting. The BoE kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25% for a eighth straight time. Ahead of the meeting, the money markets had priced the likelihood of a hold at 95%. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of a hold, with two members voting for a quarter-point cut. This result was expected by the markets and was a repeat of the vote at the previous meeting in May. This is a 16-year high but the central bank remains reluctant to cut rates due to concerns over inflation. The good news was that the inflation rate fell to 2% in May, the first time that the BoE has met its 2% target in almost three years. However, the BoE was less happy about services inflation, which remained extremely high at 5.7% in May. This was down slightly from 5.9% in the previous report but above the market forecast of 5.5%. The rate statement noted that services inflation remained high. Political considerations likely played a role in the BoE’s decision. The UK is in the midst of an election campaign and is keen not to be seen as interfering in the election. A rate cut at this sensitive time might have been viewed as helping Prime Minister Sunak, whose Conservative Party is trailing badly in opinion polls. Had the BoE trimmed rates, Sunak would have been quick to take credit for the cut and saying it proved that the government’s economic policy was working. Unfortunately for Sunak, the next BoE meeting isn’t till after the election in August. GBP/USD pushed below support at 1.2717 and 1.2695 earlier and is putting pressure on support at 1.2670 There is resistance at 1.2742 and 1.2764
by OANDA
BoE Rate Decision: Pound's Fate Hangs in the Balance – Rally or With the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision on the horizon, let's examine recent developments in GBPUSD, primarily through the lens of fundamental analysis. Chart analysis reveals that recent GBPUSD fluctuations have been largely influenced by the US dollar's strength, fueled by the Fed's increasingly hawkish stance. Although a September rate cut by the Fed is still widely anticipated, recent commentary and revised dot plot projections suggest a more cautious approach, bolstering the dollar's bullish momentum. US Dollar Strength: Not Just About Rate Cuts The US dollar's resilience, despite the expected rate cut, can be attributed to several factors. The September cut was already priced into the market, and the Fed's surprisingly hawkish tone has prompted a reassessment of the likelihood of further easing. Until clear signs of cooling inflation and a looser labor market emerge in the US, the dollar's upward trajectory is likely to persist. The CME FedWatch Tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data, currently shows a higher probability of a rate cut in September than before the recent CPI data release. This suggests that the market is still weighing the Fed's intentions carefully. UK Inflation on Target: A Dovish BoE Unlikely Yesterday's UK inflation data, which met the BoE's 2% target, might not lead to an immediate shift towards a dovish monetary policy. Market consensus anticipates a rate hold at 5.25% in today's BoE meeting (most analysts and economists predict the first rate cut to occur in August). However, the BoE's forward guidance will be critical. Hawkish commentary regarding inflation, robust wage growth, or a tight labor market could temporarily strengthen the pound. Short-Term & Mid-Term Outlook: A Bullish Pound Faces Headwinds In the short term, a hawkish BoE could potentially drive GBPUSD back towards the 1.28 level. However, a sustained bullish momentum is unlikely, with a mid-term target of 1.26 seeming more plausible. This is because even with a hawkish stance, the UK's inflation and labor market appear better positioned for easing compared to the US, suggesting the BoE may be forced to adopt a dovish stance sooner than the Fed.
by UnknownUnicorn13053793
USD/CHF – flat ahead of SNB rate decisionThe Swiss franc is almost unchanged on Wednesday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.8838 in the North American session, down 0.04% on the day. Switzerland’s central bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday and the markets are on edge. Will the Swiss National Bank lower rates or hold? The SNB last met in March and that meeting was memorable, as policy makers shocked the markets with a quarter-point cut, bringing the cash rate to 1.50%. Investors had expected the SNB to continue to maintain rates at the March 21st meeting, but the SNB decided to respond to declines in inflation and growth and became the first major central bank to lower rates this year. The Swiss franc took a bath and fell 1.2% against the US dollar the day of the March meeting, its second-to-worst daily performance this year. The Swissie proceeded to lose more ground in the following weeks but has recovered almost completely. Economists are split 50/50 on whether the SNB will cut on Thursday, while the money markets have cut expectations of a rate cut to 60%, compared to 80% just one month ago. The ultra-cautious SNB has been mum, with no public comments from Bank policy makers over the past three weeks, which has only intensified the suspense. Inflation has been steady in the upper half of the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2% and Swiss growth has been steady, which would support the case to hold rates. On the other hand, exports have been weak and the Swiss franc has appreciated 3.3% against the US dollar since May 30th. A rate cut by the SNB could weigh on the Swiss franc and make Swiss exports more attractive on world markets. The uncertainty ahead of the SNB meeting makes this a live meeting and could translate into volatility from the Swiss franc on Thursday. There is support at 0.8809 and 0.8777 0.8860 and 0.8892 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Bracing for UK Inflation & BOE decision In the UK, inflation data expected tomorrow is projected to fall to 2% in May, down from 2.3% in April. This would mark the first time since April 2021 that inflation has hit the Bank of England’s 2% target. However, a positive inflation report is unlikely to result in a rate cut at Thursday’s meeting, especially with an election on July 4th. Markets are pricing in an initial rate cut for August. Technically, the pound/dollar has been trading sideways recently. With GBP/USD breaking below 1.2700, the first support level is at 1.2667, the May 24 low. For any more downside, the next target could be the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2643, followed by 1.2600. Limiting the downside could be the recently released US retail sales data. US retail sales grew by a modest 0.1% in May, below the expected 0.2% gain. Excluding autos, retail sales fell by 0.1%. Additionally, April retail sales were revised down from flat to a 0.2% decline.
by BlackBull_Markets
Euro falls to six-week highThe euro has extended its losses on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0675 in the European session, down 0.59% on the day. The euro is down 1.17% this week and has dropped to its lowest level since May 1st. France’s inflation level fell to zero in May, confirming the preliminary estimate and down from the 0.5% gain in April. France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy and the downtrend in inflation will be welcome news to the European Central Bank. The central bank delivered a rate cut last week, the first since its rate-tightening cycle began two years ago. ECB policymakers will be closely monitoring inflation data and could consider another cut in the fall if inflation continues to decline towards the 2% target. Eurozone inflation rose 2.4% in April, unchanged from March. ECB President Lagarde speaks at an event in Croatia later on Friday and investors will be looking for hints as to the ECB’s planned rate path. Another cut in July is unlikely but a signal from Lagarde that additional rate cuts are one the table could boost the euro. In the US, the producer price index rose 0.2%, below the April reading of 0.5% and lower than the market estimate of 0.1%. Yearly, PPI ticked lower to 2.2%, down from a revised 2.3% in March and below the market estimate of 2.5%. The soft PPI data follows the May CPI report which also showed that inflation on the decline. The downtrend in these two inflation reports have raised expectations of a September rate cut, with a 61% of a quarter-point cut currently, compared to 46% just a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch. EUR/USD pushed below support at 1.0709 and is testing support at 1.0679. Below, there is support at 1.0629 1.0763 and 1.0793 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Slowing Inflation Data Brings Positive Price Action to Bitcoin The US CPI remained flat in May, beating forecasts and lifting bitcoin prices by nearly 4% on Wednesday: But bitcoin prices quickly retreated on Thursday as traders grappled with the possibility of just one rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. Trump voices support for Bitcoin mining at Mar-a-Lago: President Biden’s campaign also consulted the crypto industry on his digital asset policy. Gensler confirms spot ether ETFs are coming soon: In a Senate Banking hearing on Thursday, SEC chairman Gary Gensler said he expects spot ether ETFs will begin trading this summer. GameStop's stock drops 12%, impacting related meme tokens: The dip comes after recent highs and announcements of new share sales and declining quarterly sales. HSBC Bank's China branch begins offering e-CNY services to corporate clients: It’s the first foreign bank to support the digital yuan to facilitate transactions and asset management. The ZKsync Association will airdrop 3.675 billion ZK tokens next week: Early users and contributors will receive the distributions, with claims available until January 2025. 🗝️ Topic of the Week: Crypto and Retirement Accounts: 401ks and IRAs 👉 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
BTC DAILY: Inflation rates, CPI and FOMC todayBitcoin cleared nearest liquidity pool under ~66155 and closed above that level which might be a swing failure - bullish pattern. But too early to confirm that. Target for that bounce is May VAH zone + year VWAP VAH around 69.2k (for the wicks). These are conservative targets that assume rejection and pull back to 67600 at least with further consolidation. Today CPI and Inflation rates at 12.30 UTC and FOMC at 18 UTC time. That always cause extra volatility. As I wrote before, there was no correlation with global markets in this crypto dump. Stocks actually performed pretty well yesterday. And Dollar Index so far follows the drawn path I've shared two days ago. So I don't see any sufficient bearish pressure on BTC outside of crypto world. Bullish scenario comes into play if BTC find acceptance above year VWAP VAH. Nearest liquidity pools: above - 68256 / 68840 / 70400 / 72240 below - 66905 / 65760 / 64233 / 59960 Lines on the chart: 🔸73881 - ATH 🔸71363 - March close 🔸70393 - last W VAH 🔸69667 - week close 🔸68540 - last week close 🔸67577 - May close 🔸66239 - week close 🔸64025 - last April week close Trend: D ▶️ W 🔼 M 🔼 🤑 F&G: 72 < 74 < 72 < 75 < 72
by WiseAnalyze
US CPI Report Set to Influence Fed Decision and Market SentimentUS CPI Data Expected to Show Moderating Price Pressures Ahead of Fed Decision Key Highlights: Expected CPI Rise: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise by 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in May, maintaining the same pace as in April. Core CPI Inflation: Annual core CPI inflation is anticipated to slightly decrease from 3.6% in April to 3.5% in May. Impact on US Dollar and Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The upcoming inflation data could influence the US Dollar value and market expectations regarding a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Detailed Analysis: Upcoming CPI Data Release: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This report is expected to bring intense volatility to the US Dollar, as any surprises in the inflation figures could significantly impact market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions in September. Inflation Expectations: Overall CPI: Expected to rise by 3.4% YoY in May, consistent with April’s rate. Core CPI: Forecast to inch down to 3.5% YoY from 3.6% in April. Month-over-Month (MoM) Changes: The CPI is anticipated to increase by 0.1% in May, down from a 0.3% rise in April. Core CPI is likely to hold steady at a 0.3% MoM increase. Federal Reserve’s Stance: In a recent moderated discussion, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a dovish stance, expressing lower confidence in inflation moving back down and suggesting it is unlikely that the next move would be a rate hike. Powell's comments came just before the April CPI data release, which showed softened headline and core inflation. Labor Market Impact: A strong US labor market report, showing a substantial increase in Nonfarm Payrolls and higher-than-expected Average Hourly Earnings, has tempered market expectations for a September rate cut. Despite earlier optimism for rate cuts, the robust labor data has led markets to reassess the likelihood of such cuts. Banks' Expectations for CPI: Goldman Sachs: Predicts CPI to be at 3.3% year-over-year, slightly lower than the previous month. JP Morgan: Expects CPI to remain stable at 3.4%, indicating no significant change. Morgan Stanley: Anticipates a slight decline to 3.2%, reflecting easing inflation pressures. Bank of America: Foresees CPI at 3.3%, aligning with a gradual slowdown in inflation. Analysts’ Forecasts: According to TD Securities analysts, core inflation is expected to slow to a "soft" 0.3% MoM in May, with the headline likely rising by a softer 0.1% due to a significant decline in energy prices. They also noted a potential for a dovish surprise with an unrounded core CPI forecast of 0.26% MoM. Conclusion: The upcoming US CPI data release is crucial, with potentially significant impacts on the US Dollar and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A CPI reading in line with expectations could reinforce current market positions, while any deviation could trigger substantial market volatility. This comprehensive analysis outlines the expectations and potential impacts of the upcoming CPI data, providing valuable insights for market participants.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by SroshMayi
BTCUSD to reclaim highs and more?Highlighting the inverse relationship between the DXY (yellow line) and the BTCUSD. Potential weakness on the DXY tonight could see the BTCUSD continue its bounce from the support level of 66,000 (also formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) up toward the previous high of 72,000. If the price breaks above the resistance level, significant upside could be anticipated with the next target profit level around the 74,500 area
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
1
GBPUSD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)Considering the scenario that the CPI data is released higher and/or the FOMC presents a hawkish tone, this would mean that the US interest rates could stay high for longer. This would bring significant strength to the DXY which could see massive downside for the GBPUSD. However, the GBPUSD has developed a strong support along the 1.27 price level, formed by several swing points and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. In DXY strength, look for the GBPUSD to break the bullish trend line and the support level before anticipating further downside toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and support area of 1.25
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USDCAD H4 (Prior to US CPI & FOMC)USDCAD has been trading within the range of 1.3590 and 1.3780 since the start of May 2024. With the price action indicating a potential rejection of the resistance level, weakness in the DXY could see the USDCAD continue to reverse lower. A consideration as a trigger for the reversal is if the price breaks through the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous swing level at 1.3735. However, the downside is likely to be limited at the 1.3590 price level, due to the 50% and 38.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the shorter and longer term move forming a confluence with the bullish trendline around the support area.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
How will Stocks React to Inflation?The stock market's reaction to an inflation trend always involves a delay. Based on studies of the inflation trend, this delay is approximately 6 months. How about the inflation data month by month? Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by konhow
2
Golden, Green, or ScarletHey There, Welcome Back. Today we analyze the evergreen hedge commodity. - If you are an Indian, Given that Gold rallied almost 17% in a very short span You must be quite happy. We Indians love gold. Especially, the ladies in our homes. - The chart of Gold Futures is showing something interesting. The price took quite a rejection from the recent support zone. - If this rejection holds, we may see a correction/retracement. - On the other hand, we may just see a consolidation phase (Which is usual after a good rally) - Only future price action will tell what's what but in the meantime, here are a few rumors/updates to know in the vicinity of Gold (Some are just rumors so take it with a pinch of salt) : - BRICS Bloc is rumored to introduce a gold-backed currency that will any day be more reliable than the flat currency every other country has. - US is battling Economy slowdown and recession. The United States has the world's highest national debt with $30.1 trillion owed to creditors as of the first quarter of 2023- Al Jazeera. - The US Credit ratings were reduced to AA+ from the elite AAA - If the BRICS Currency comes out, 85% of the global population will stop using US Dollars for intra trades settlement (BRICS Nations) - Russia is out of the SWIFT System meaning USD Dealings are off the table. That reduces the demand for dollars. - Saudi Arabia is rumored to join BRICS. Also, for the first time, they are considering accepting other currencies besides the Dollar for Oil trades. This may hugely impact the almighty dollar. - In the calendar year 2022, central banks around the world purchased a record 1,136 tonnes of gold. - RBI’s hoard of gold is now almost 800 tonnes - China’s Central Bank is accumulating gold for straight 9 months - Gold may soon be the King once again. Does that mean we will start buying gold at any given price? Absolutely Not. But we will surely keep a check on the global news, the price action, and our overall asset allocations. Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇 ⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
MCX:GOLD1!
by TheChartereds
Inflation vs. Fed Decision: What's Driving Markets Next Week? While closely related, US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions can impact the market with varying intensity. The Fed aims to avoid surprising the market, whereas inflation is unpredictable. Consequently, the market is confident that the Fed will neither hike nor cut rates at the upcoming meeting. However, inflation forecasts are often inaccurate. According to TradingEconomics, US inflation year-over-year is forecast to have stalled at 3.4%. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index remained steady at 2.8% in April for the second month in a row. This stability suggests that inflation may persist longer than expected, raising doubts about how soon the Fed can cut interest rates. Traders currently see a 68% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September. Interestingly, today the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in borrowing rates for the eurozone, the first decrease since 2019. The ECB’s main refinancing rate is now 4.25%, down from a record high of 4.50%. With this rate reduction, the ECB follows the lead of the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, and the Bank of Canada. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
by BlackBull_Markets
Inverted Yield of 2022 Explained - Till TodayFor our housing loan, many of us, if you are in your 30s today and all the way to 70 years of age, will likely have chosen floating or short-term loan rates rather than longer-term loan rates. However, everything changed in 2022. Now, we are more likely to choose longer-term loan rates over floating rates. Why? Because today, longer-term loan rates are lower than floating rates. This phenomenon is called an inverted yield curve. In the 70s and 80s, there was also a period of inverted yields, and different markets moved accordingly as expected. Today, we are seeing an inverted yield once again, and the same markets are moving in a manner similar to those in the 70s and 80s. We will do a comparison between the 70s and today’s inverted yield. Please let me know what opportunities you see after this tutorial. 2 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Long
by konhow
2