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Inflationcycle

Market is Sensitive to what Jerome Powell is SayingAt the latest FOMC meeting on January 31st, Jerome Powell stated, 'The Fed is not ready to start cutting,' which immediately caused the yield to pivot higher. During an recent interview on Sunday, February 4th, he reiterated that the US central bank is not yet prepared to cut interest rates, resulting in another increase in the yield. Today, we will discuss the direction of the yield or interest rates in the coming months, as well as why the Fed is carefully considering its decision to cut rates this time. My name is Kon How, my work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities. Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
The Great Inflation AGAIN? US Inflation Rate YoY Comparison - ECONOMICS:USIRYY Stark similarities to the beginning of the Great Inflationary Period (GIP) which ranged from 1965 - 1982. The GIP fractal is not a prediction, it only offers us perspective and context. As an example, US Inflation YoY could potentially bounce around between 3 - 4% for another 32 months as it did between 1975 - 1978 before making any major move. This is a scenario I had not considered, an almost 3 year sideways boring consolidation. We will continue to track this chart to see how it compares moving forward into the future. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
So… how’s that deflation narrative looking?We’ve become so accustomed to headlines of ‘peak inflation’ and falling input prices that some have been throwing the wonderful ‘deflation’ word around. And we think most would enjoy a bit of deflation, as that would result in lower interest rates. However, with commodity prices (particularly oil) being a key driver of inflation, a lot of the softness can be tied back to the underperformance of commodities over the past 12 months. Supply chain disruptions have also been in the rear-view mirror and no longer a concern (or are they?) Over 30,000 UPS workers are vowing to strike if a new pay deal is not negotiated by 1 August, which should throw a nice spanner in the works of the US (and global) parcel delivery system. Russia has pulled out of a key grain deal and is bombing Ukraine ports to derail trade in the Black Sea. And India has banned rice exports (apart from Basmati) to fight domestic inflation, adding to fears of another round of food inflation. It is therefore worth noting that the Thomson Reuters CRB commodities index is seemingly breaking out of a 12-month retracement on the monthly chart. Furthermore, the retracement lasted 11 months before June’s small bullish candle, so the broad commodities index may have bottomed in May at -19.8% y/y. And assuming this is the breakout of a falling wedge, it projects a target around the 329.60 high. But if it were deemed a bull flag, the target sits around 365. And what do we think will happen to consumer prices further down the track? Of course, they will begin to rise again. And the worrying fact is that inflation tends to come and go in waves, so if commodities continue to rally then it looks like the next wave of rising y/y inflation is pending.
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by CityIndex
How to Reduce Inflation in South Africa in 2023! - 5 WAYS!How to Reduce Inflation in South Africa in 2023! - 5 WAYS! I got this excellent question today from someone Which I thought was an important question to answer considering the state of the Country of South Africa. Hi everyone. In SA I always wonder how an ordinary person "employed or not" can contribute to bring positive change to our inflation? A. Here is my answer... As an economist, I can say in theory it is possible to bring positive change to the inflation rates but in reality – with corruption – I’m not sure it’s that easy. Also, it’s the butterfly effect where we need to come together as a community (country) to work towards lowering inflation. So on the one hand, there needs to be less spending unfortunately. Here are a few measures I can think of… #1. Lower non-essential spending. People need to stop spending unnecessarily on products and services and instead start saving more for their future. This will hamper and reduce the impact of inflation. #2: Support your local places! This world is becoming highly globalised not only where the rich get richer but the TOP stores and shops get richer too. As a community, we need to start supporting the local businesses that have great quality products and services to. We need to be more friendly to each other and help spread awareness to the small but great man. This will help stimulate the local economy and bring on more job creation and economic growth. #3: More investments in education Education is key to help bring personal development and skills training. We need to educate our fellow people on business skills, high income skills, programming, AI, machine learning, savings, risk averse investments and encourage more businesses to help grow. #4: Save more to invest more When inflation is high it means people were spending uncontrollably which pushed up demand and lowered supply. Instead, we should encourage more savings in stocks, property, trading, funds, and personal finances to reduce the effects of inflation. Instead of drinking sorrows away, spending on games to bide time – focus on less spending and more saving for the future – reducing the debt levels. #5: Invest in renewable energy Load Shedding is here to stay. And so we need to try to support more renewable energy initiatives that come about. Solar, wind and gas. This will definitely help reduce the cost of energy and curb inflation. As I said, we can only do our part and hope for the best. We are a nation with hope, optimism and trust. But instead of just trusting the government we should also learn to support and trust our local businesses and methods to living a better life. Hope that helps.
ECONOMICS:ZAIRYYEducation
by Timonrosso
German inflation rate falls to 7.6 percent, BTC pump?Bottom found? US markets likely to follow EU markets very soon. I suppose to see BTC to hold the 20k$ for atleast short-term. With upcoming inflation data for july, I see a direct correlation that US inflation data will also be promising, leading to a recovery to atleast 24-25k$ in short-term. Altough rising OIL prices and commodity could mid-term again crush this inflation data. This is not an investment advise, and not a trading recommendation for BTC! always do your own research.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Lobotto
5
GDP about to slow down!I have created this chart based on analytical ideas of Raoul Pal. The idea of this chart is to show that we can expect a decline in gross domestic product (GDP), based on looking at the rail car freight decline. We have seen one of the sharpest declines in rail car freight. On top the leading indicator for the GDP the ISM (from the Institute for Supply Management) is moving down indicating that growth in GDP will slow down soon. Will we see a slow growth and a declining inflation? Stay tuned for more charts on this series.... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
FRED:RAILFRTCARLOADSD11Short
by CarpeMomentum
Can we expect more inflation? A look US Consumer Price Index.We are living in very uncertain times. I wanted to provide a couple of view in order to understand the current market situation better and determine a strategy going forward. So I have created a US consumer price indes YOY% chart. We have not seen such high interest rates since the 1970s when demographics created a demand shock and oil embargos and Iran crisis created a demand shock leading to high inflation. Today, respectively as a result from 2 years of Covid-19 (measures) and now a war we have seen tremendous supply shock. Now can we expect the peak of the inflation fear has passed? Will we see a slow growth and a declining inflation? Stay tuned for more charts.... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
ECONOMICS:USCPIShort
by CarpeMomentum
Inflation: long term top or century breakout?Inflation Hits Fastest Pace Since 1981, at 8.5% Through March Gasoline weighed heavily in the increases, while prices moderated in several categories. Some economists say the overall rate may have peaked. Inflation hit 8.5 percent in the United States last month, the fastest 12-month pace since 1981, as a surge in gasoline prices tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to sharp increases coming from the collision of strong demand and stubborn pandemic-related supply shortages. Fuel prices jumped to record levels across much of the nation and grocery costs soared, the Labor Department said Tuesday in its monthly report on the Consumer Price Index. The price pressures have been painful for American households, especially those that have lower incomes and devote a big share of their budgets to necessities. But the news was not uniformly bad: A measure that strips out volatile food and fuel prices decelerated slightly from February as used car prices swooned. Economists and policymakers took that as a sign that inflation in goods might be starting to cool off after climbing at a breakneck pace for much of the past year. In fact, several economists said March may be a high-water mark for overall inflation . Price increases could begin abating in the coming months in part because gasoline prices have declined somewhat — the national average for a gallon was $4.10 on Tuesday, according to AAA , down from a $4.33 peak in March. Some researchers also expect consumers to stop buying so many goods, whether furniture or outdoor equipment, which could begin to take pressure off overtaxed supply chains. By Jeanna Smialek NYT April 12, 2022
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by youknowram
Expect the price of your cup of coffee to increase. We have both technical and fundamental justifications as to why coffee is the next inflationary trade to jump into. With supply chain issues and the seasonal changes in Brazil affecting coffee production and shipping, we can expect the value of the black breakfast gold to rise. Latin American coffee farmers are also reported to have gone on strike in the last few months to demand better prices for their produce as they are barely turning a profit. Technical wise, the symmetrical triangle break shows us the fundamentals are playing out on the charts.
CLong
by FuturaFi
Natural Gas Breakout is Imminent Natural Gas has already been bullish over a trend duration (3 months or more) as it recovered from the Covid Global Deflation. Now Natural Gas is quietly setting up for a bullish TAIL Breakout, i.e. the start of the next bull market in energy and commodities. To call the next commodity supercycle is a little early but we can see several factors hinting at that over the coming 1-3 years. Regardless, we need to trade the market in front of us, and as such we only really care about the next 3 months when it comes to near-term risk management. Over the next 2-3 months I would not be surprised to see Natural Gas hit a multi-year high between $4 and $6. Given that inflation is non-linear and is really accelerating, its conceivable it could go to $10 in a major commodity reflation move. Our Macro Nowcasting Machines with a 60-90% success rate in predicting growth and inflation 3-5 months out (the forecast gets more accurate the closer we get) says that Quad 2 growth and inflation accelerating will peak just before the summer. April-May time period. Following that will be a decelerating of growth and inflation, so we will have to risk manage that drawdown proactively. But we are not there yet so we must focus on Natural Gas's upside in the immediate term. The same holds true for commodities broadly, including uranium, fertilizer, agriculture, crude, and copper/industrial metals. Looking at the 1H timeframe we can see a healthy consolidation of higher lows and volume/momentum indicators that are not near being overbought. The volatility signal shows volatility can go much lower which is a good thing for price. Breakout is imminent. Looking at Natty through the lense of market positioning, the net long position in natty more than doubled the week before last (last week's data comes out tomorrow, will provide an update) which is a huge move. The 3month average net long was added in a single week. But the max net long position over 3Y lookback is 2.5x the current net long. In summary, Natty is not crowded, it is not a consensus position, and has significant upside. If you haven't been hedging for inflation that last 5-10 months where have you been?
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
RIG Channel trading right nowRIG still holding a relatively clear channel right now. I think with the discussion on inflation it could get (and seems to have gotten) folded into the "inflation strength" conversation. "So, why exactly is Transocean a play for inflation? Well, as stated earlier, energy penny stocks have a great amount of demand to contend with. This demand increase could result in increased financials for the coming periods." Quote Source: Best Penny Stocks to Buy Ahead Of Inflation? 3 To Watch Right Now
NYSE:RIG
by PennyStocks101
Coffee, Global Agriculture Inflation BoomNotice the major multi-year higher low formed in 2019, followed by the rounding basing pattern and subsequent breakout outside of the multi-year triangle. The higher low in 2019, before the Covid deflation crash, tells me the agriculture complex was already bottoming ahead of Covid and now has a full head of steam. Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Fertilizer have all been ripping to the upside like mad. Way to play coffee is through the ETF NIB Not investment advice. DYODD
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
New Agriculture Commodity Bull Market The Entire Agriculture Complex is in the process of breaking out, and not just breaking out, but breaking out of a 12-year old downtrend. I will be posting more charts showing the developing bull market in ag and other commodities, and how I'm expressing that outlook in the portfolio. In terms of the macro inflation cycle, I think we are somewhere similar to early 2002. I.E. We're fresh out of a cycle low for inflation and commodities which means the new bull market has already started, but it can only be seen in momentum, volume for particular commodities (copper & wheat), and smart money moving into commodities the past few months. By the time price is showing a technical breakout smart money will be selling into volume from moving average breakout chasers. That being said, this commodity bull market can last a long time but it won't come without its volatility. it will be important not to chase extreme moves, but rather be patient and wait to buy on pullbacks. Experience has taught us to wait for weakness to buy and to sell into strength. If you're not convinced Agriculture is breaking out, look at $IPI Intrepid Potash $Corn $Sugar. With the assumption that inflation is in the 2nd or 3rd inning of the inflation cycle, stocks like $ICL still have a lot higher to go even though its moved a lot off of its cycle low. Notice that the cycle low was right at the opening original price 14 years ago. The long-term structure of $ICL's price trends shows a well-managed and healthy company that does well in commodity inflation cycles and shareholders haven't been diluted to death in a long-term bear market. Additionally, $ICL is a similar company to $IPI intrepid potash, but it is better managed and more diversified and internationally-oriented which gives it less market risk and an advantage in terms of globalism-accelerating and Israel having a security and investment advantage on the global market. This being said, $ICL still has 500% upside over a trend-duration to get to a new all-time high, while $IPI potentially has much more than that (1000%+) should it ever overcome the long-term bear market and equity dilution. Not an equity analyst or licensed professional. Do your own DD.
NYSE:ICLLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Oranges and the Next Inflation CycleOJ1 Oranges have been building a higher low since spring of 2019 and completed the higher low in the Feb. 2020 crash. With broad commodities CRB having formed a long-term cycle low in the 1Q2020 and the global economy already heating up and many commodities already breaking out of their multi-year downtrends (Uranium, industrial metals, agriculture), it has become increasingly clear that we are in the next re-flation (growth and inflation) cycle. a higher low for oranges over a trend duration, at a time when most commodities hit all-time cycle lows, is a more structurally healthy bullish set up than most other commodities. Gold and silver tend to be the popular way to express a bullish view on inflation, but during times when bond yields are rising with inflation, consumer and industrial commodities tend to outperform the precious metals.
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
4