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Inflationhedge

Is Bitcoin Really an Inflation Hedge?Theoretically, Bitcoin's fixed monetary supply makes it an inflation hedge. Unfortunately, markets don't give a shit about your theories. Price action is the final answer. Bitcoin's price action has failed to trend higher with oil and gold. Bitcoin has rallied during risk-on periods and fallen during risk-off periods. Bitcoin's price action proves that the majority of market participants are treating it as a high-risk speculation vehicle and NOT as a hedge. Bottom line: The market is always right. If you make decisions based on theory or ideology and not price action, you will often find yourself on the wrong side of the market.
BITTREX:BTCUSD
by iamroot
SHE HAD DUMPS LIKE A TRUCK TRUCK TRUCKBTC has made it's decision to test the lows. We will see fear and panic in the market. The fake Russian invasion into Ukraine plus the FED emergency meeting on Monday is more than enough to do this in the coming days. The hot inflation numbers caused an initial dump in btc and then a suprisingly fast, spring like recovery that soon after faded. That fade was enough for me to see a clearer bearish picture as BTC has yet to prove it is anything more than a high risk asset. Will it prove to be a hedge against inflation eventually? IDK. I expect these targets to be reached and then the we begin the next part of this larger bull cycle for crypto.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ceesounds
Gold Cup and Handle?Gold doesn't seem to move even with high Inflation data in the past months, possibly because the Crypto market is eating slowly it's market. However it seems like there is potential Cup and Handle which might lead to Gold prices around 2500$ Ounce in the next few years. A possible catalyst might be invasion of Ukraine, since Gold performs quite well during wars - however I truly Hope this never happens. Just posting this here so I can keep track of it in the future, will update it if there is any news ahead.
TVC:GOLD
by LongTermWealth2030
1
Will inflation peak this week? 14 Feb – 19 Feb, 2022*Please note; The author is working from UTC +13 when determining the timeline of data releases. Will inflation peak this week? 14 Feb – 19 Feb, 2022 Six significant inflation rate figures will keep investors on their toes almost every day of this week, with the most important data concentrated on Wednesday trading. Bear in mind the expectations for most of the inflation data figures are strongly suggesting that inflationary pressure has already peaked. So, watch out for deviations from these hopeful expectations. Tuesday, February 15: India Inflation Rate YoY JAN The week opens with India's Inflation Rate YoY to January. The data is released on Tuesday morning, and the market is expecting India's Inflation Rate to rise to 6.0% from the current 5.59%. The Indian Rupee is trading at a 7-week low against the US Dollar and a 3 ½- month low against the British Pound. The Rupee's weakness so far (and possibly to continue after Tuesday's data release) can be explained, in part, by the Reserve Bank of India less-hawkish stance than the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England concerning raising interest rates. India's Inflation Rate hitting 6.0% isn't expected to radically alter the Reserve Bank of India's relatively less-hawkish stance. Wednesday, February 16: China Inflation Rate YoY JAN UK Inflation Rate YoY JAN South Africa Inflation Rate YoY JAN Expect three inflation rate data releases across Wednesday afternoon that may have the most considerable impact on this week's trading. In order of appearance: China's Inflation Rate YoY to January is forecast to fall from 1.5% to 1.00%. The UK's Inflation Rate YoY to January is forecast to remain flat at 5.4%. The direction that South Africa's Inflation Rate YoY to January is expected to head is contentious. The majority of the market expects the South African Inflation Rate to subdue a fraction of a percentage point from 5.9% to 5.7% or 5.6%. However, TradingEconomics is forecasting a rise to 6.0%. Thursday, February 17: Canada Inflation Rate YoY JAN Canada's Inflation Rate YoY to January, released very early Thursday morning, is forecast to remain flat at 4.8%. Thursday’s result may force investors to reconsider their exodus from the Canadian Dollar last week, as US Inflation hit a 40-year high and expectations for an aggressive US Federal Reserve response heightened. The same forces could be in play this week but in the opposite direction. The Bank of Canada is on the edge of a more aggressive stance and hotter than expected inflation could essentially guarantee that it enacts its first post-pandemic interest rate increase on March 2. Friday, February 18: Japan Inflation Rate YoY JAN Closing out the week is Japan's Inflation Rate YoY to January, released mid-day Friday. The market consensus is a mild increase to 0.9% from the current Inflation Rate of 0.8%. As Japanese companies are extremely slow to hike prices, Japan's peak inflation may lag other nations and continue to rise above 0.9% in the ensuing months. For one, the Bank of Japan is expecting inflation to hit 1.1% YoY to April, but still well under the Banks target annual inflation of 2.0%. Consequently, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy and its -0.1% short term benchmark interest rate for the foreseeable future. As such, it might be a shock for the Japanese Yen to improve its position from its 5-year low against the US Dollar.
ECONOMICS:CAIRYY
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold Attempts a BreakoutThe SPDR Gold Trust ETF has squeezed into a tight range since rallying in mid-2020, and now it may be attempting a breakout. The main pattern on today’s chart is the pair of converging trendlines running along the highs and lows. GLD made a higher high today for the first time in over a year. Second, notice how the 200-day simple moving (SMA) turned higher in mid-December and has continued to rise since. That’s a potential sign of the longer-term trend growing more bullish. Third is the overall macro context, with investors increasingly worried about inflation and Ukraine tensions. Crude oil is back to its highest levels since 2014, while other commodities like soybeans and corn are rallying. That backdrop can potentially increase demand for gold – especially because of its added status as a safe-haven asset. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
AMEX:GLD
by TradeStation
2
XAUUSD - Gold continue to move in uptrendAnalysis description Timeframe 1H Gold continues to move within the upward channel. Formed the third liquidity zone, from where it headed up to test the resistance level of $1834. The movement takes place on the decreasing volumes. From the liquidity zone came out in a large green candle, forming a bullish takeover. The stochastic RSI is in an overbought zone. Timeframe 4H 50MA under the 200MA, and 200 under the 100 moving average; stochastic RSI is in the overbought zone. Forecast I consider a LONG after a correction from current levels to the yellow zone of liquidity, then a breakout of 1834.65, then 1837 and 1842.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Akaguma7
Can traders trust inflation data forecasts this week?Can traders trust inflation data forecasts this week? 07 Feb – 12 Feb, 2022 This week’s trading takes place in the shadow of last week’s Non-farm Payrolls number, out-doing analysts’ expectations by a considerable margin. Non-farm Payrolls recorded 467K jobs added to the US economy in January vs an expected 150K gain. Investors will be cautious of this week’s predictions, especially as it applies to inflation data. Thursday, February 10: Brazil Inflation Rate YoY JAN Mexico Inflation Rate YoY JAN Russia Inflation Rate YoY JAN Inflation data across three emerging economies should draw investor interest on Thursday. In order of appearance, Brazil, Mexico, and then Russia’s results will be rolled out through the morning. Brazil and Russia’s readings are expected to keep rolling onto new multi-decade highs. In contrast, Mexico’s reading is expected to cement the idea that inflation has peaked in the country as it records its second straight decline in its reading. Brazilian inflation is expected to rise from 10.06% to 10.40% Mexican inflation is expected to fall from 7.36% to 7.00% Russian inflation is expected to rise from 8.4% to 8.8% Friday, February 11: US Inflation Rate YoY JAN The Federal Reserve’s prediction that inflation will return to 2.6% sometime this year is unlikely to be encouraged by January’s reading of US inflation YoY. The market is predicting an increase in the inflation rate from its current 7.0% to 7.3%. January’s reading is due this Friday morning. Something to consider in relation to the inflation rate is that its biggest contributor, energy, has recently hit 7-year highs, with WTI and Brent crude both trading above US $90 per barrel.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Why are Netflix shares down 30% in 2022?Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares have tumbled 30% YTD, similar to its tech brethren, who have by-in-large, been facing huge downward pressure. For interest sake, NFLX was down 37% from its all-time high in November 2021. Two major events have eaten into the gains that NFLX made in 2021. The first is investor confidence waning in growth stocks in the face of looming interest rate rises. And the second has perhaps had a greater impact; a tepid earnings report. Netflix shares experienced a significant sell-off two weeks ago, after releasing its Q4 2021 earnings report. The report noted that the pace at which Netflix is adding subscribers is slowing. Such a declaration typically spooks Netflix investors, who steadfastly hold the streaming platform still has plenty of room to grow and shrink its price-to-earnings ratio. Before Netflix’s share price dipped by 30%, its PE ratio was ~60.0. As it stands, with Netflix trading at US $429.48 per share, its PE ratio is now ~38.0. Netflix finally admits it is facing tougher competition Typically shying away from doing so, Netflix has finally revealed that competition is hurting its subscriber growth. It is this admission that caught a lot of investors off guard. In the past three years, Netflix has had to contend with a wave of competitors entering the streaming market, such as (in order of appearance) Apple TV+, Disney+, Peacock, HBO Max, and Paramount+. The penultimate newcomer on the above list, the premium-placed HBO Max, has been the fastest-growing service of late, vastly outpacing Netflix and adding 73.8 million subscribers last year. Similarly, Netflix is hurting from older streaming services increasing the appeal of their content libraries and raising investment in content creation. One such competitor, Amazon Prime, increased its spending on content by 41% to US $11 billion in 2020 from the previous year and have recently bid US $8.5 billion to acquire MGM studios and its content catalogue. 2022 looks to be a pivotal year for streaming Will 2022 be the year that consumers start weaning off the numerous streaming services to which they are subscribed? As prices climb, this may be the likely outcome. In this respect, Netflix may be on the back foot, having recently pushed its prices up to US $15.50 per month for its standard package. Netflix is now more expensive than the more ‘premium’ HBO Max at this price point. One factor that could influence the price of Netflix shares over the year is whether their competition hikes their respective prices. For one, Disney+ might be expected to raise its prices before June, as its bargain pricing (introduced one year ago) becomes increasingly unsustainable. However, its attempt to hit ambitious growth targets may delay price hikes from the company. If pricing over the different streaming services become more equitable, content becomes the deciding factor for consumers. Netflix, and Netflix’s share price, will be in a better position in this scenario as consumers by far prefer Netflix content over its competitors. As such, In 2021, even as competitors pumped funds into content creation, Netflix’s hosted 14 of the top 15 most popular TV shows and Movies.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold (GLD) is set for a major breakout to the upside!In this article I will explain why we at Dow Experts Finance have recently increased our exposure in our corporate investment portfolio to Gold by buying into the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) trust, what our economic projections are for 2022 and why we believe that investors need to be highly cautious in the coming months. The last more than a decade has been defined by a generally loose monetary and fiscal policy with artificially low interest rates, Quantitative Easing (QE), falling bond yields and consistently rising stock prices. We discussed all of these components, their inter-correlation and dependence in our detailed macro analysis published back on June 29th, 2021, where we accurately predicted the strong appreciation of the USD in the 2nd half of 2021, despite the fact that the broad consensus in the market at the time was for a weaker US dollar throughout 2021. You're welcome. Now, it’s time for us to share with you our analysis and thoughts on where we see the global economy, interest rates, inflation, bonds yields and of course stock prices heading in 2022. We believe that having the right macro economic framework and understanding of how leading economic forces and indicators affect the demand for money as well as goods and services globally is essential for being successful as an investor in these highly complex times. Being able to recognize major trends, correlations and structural changes allows you to efficiently optimize and re-balance your investment portfolio in a way that will ultimately help you to stay one step ahead of the market. Today's analysis will focus exclusively on Gold, as we will be releasing our full macro investing outlook for this year in the coming weeks and we don't want to overlap too many things between the two articles. At any rate, our full macro investing outlook paper will present you with a much deeper dive, showing you where we see the best trading and investing opportunities in 2022 and beyond. The Technical Set-Up Apart from the great cup and handle technical formation on the monthly chart, which is a strong BULLISH continuation pattern, GLD is also expected to receive a meaningful boost from a weakening US DOLLAR and the elevated levels of inflation that we expect to see in the US moving forward. The Cup & Handle technical pattern currently in play has been forming since the lows at around $40/oz set all the way back in 2005. As you can see on the chart below the price action has been characterized by a sharp price rise in Stage 1; a corrective phase with the formation of a broad base, Stage 2; another strong rally (Stage 3) taking the price back to the highs reached in Stage 1; a minor profit taking correction (Stage 4). This is a textbook set up for a meaningful multi-year rally for Gold, especially considering the fact that it is on the monthly chart. The new mandate of the Fed The Federal Reserve has shifted its growth mandate to a price mandate at the end of 2021, which means that achieving price stability and lower inflation readings is now a more important goal than chasing growth and pushing equity markets higher with artificially low interest rates and generally loose monetary policy conditions. So, what does that mean? It means that in the event of a sharp correction in the US equity markets caused by the expected strong tightening in monetary policy conditions, the Fed will be less likely to jump in to the rescue of equities by lowering the benchmark interest rates and resuming its QE program (as it did back in March of 2020). Reason being, such actions would simply throw gasoline in the inflation fires in the economy. The current environment - We have highly inflated US equity markets sitting at all-time highs; - A weakening US Dollar with a descending triangle formation on the monthly chart with 4 rate hikes already priced in for 2022, thus leaving it a very limited fundamentally supported upside from here. In case the Fed is unable to complete all 4 interest rate hikes in 2022 and/or interest rate expectations start shifting for whatever reason, the US dollar will experience a major sell-off. - A high inflation up until now mainly driven by supply-chain bottlenecks, which is expected to stay relatively high in the foreseeable future. - The weakening US Dollar will further increase the inflation in the US economy for the following reasons: Import prices will rise causing a degree of imported inflation The rise in aggregate demand from cheaper exports The fall in the value of the dollar may reduce the incentives for firms to cut costs because they get an ‘easy’ improvement in competitiveness. Therefore, a fall in the dollar may harm long-term competitiveness. - A hawkish Federal Reserve with a price mandate instead of a growth mandate - Unfavorable demographic trend with the highest ever number of people expected to leave the workforce in 2022 (baby boomers retiring). Conclusion We believe that the Federal Reserve is already way behind the curve with its tapering and tightening efforts as it is still technically injecting liquidity into the market with over $60 billion worth of assets bought this month alone. Moving forward, after concluding its tapering process in March, 2022 the Fed will make an attempt to catch up with the running inflation, but will still be somewhat limited in terms of the actual pace of policy tightening as they would not want to sent the economy into a deep and prolonged recession. Furthermore, with the excessive amounts of credit injected into the system over the last few years, the Fed is well aware that if asset prices collapse dramatically, that would mean that the collateral of these record levels of public and private debt will go down, reducing personal wealth and making it much more difficult for borrowers to service their loans. In addition to that, if inflation stays relatively elevated for prolonged periods of time that will also eat away from the purchasing power of consumers, thus making their wages and earnings less valuable. So we might be heading towards an economic environment where, asset prices come down as a result of tightening of monetary policy conditions, rates go up but fail to completely subdue the raging inflation as they are simply starting from a very low level (0.25%) and will take the Fed a long time in order to get them back above 2% or higher. This would then lead to a further erosion in the purchasing power of the end consumer, thus lowering the Aggregate Demand in the US economy and lowering the Real GDP moving forward. On the other hand, the current demographic mix and the millions of people expected to leave the workforce this year, together with the continuous technological innovation present in the economy are both going to exercise their respective deflationary pressures moving forward. We hope that these developments could also help the Fed in the fight against inflation putting somewhat of a natural lid to how high inflation could rise in the long run. We believe that the economy would eventually self-correct and stabilize in the long run, but we will definitely have to go through a period of economic contraction in order for that to happen. Gold is widely considered as a safe-haven asset, which tends to outperform in times of uncertainty, volatility and lower GDP growth, thus making it an attractive asset for 2022 and beyond! Follow & Copy us @DowExperts on eToro for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance!
AMEX:GLDLong
by DowExperts
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1736This here is my Gold long analysis long term back up to 1974 to cover all the imbalance created throughout 2021. This here is a sell to buy trade. I still expect one more wave down towards 1735-1710 in order to grab liquidity for the year. After that move is complete, Gold will be ready for its yearly Bull run. Possibly even possible to create a yearly high now that the long term correction is about to be finished. If you look back on my profile and see my further analysis, this here is an ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS. My main analysis is Gold shorts down towards 1570. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
2
Market Myth - Gold and InflationMarket Myth - Gold and Inflation Consumer price inflation is up but Gold is down. That’s not unusual. Gold , they say, is the ultimate consumer price inflation hedge . The famous story goes that a Roman strutting his stuff down Via Sacra back in Emperor Nero’s day nearly two thousand years ago would have paid an ounce of gold for his top-of-the-market toga, sandals and belt. In 2021, with the euro price of Gold hovering just above €1,500, a chic Roman posing down Via del Corso would have paid that for his Salvatore Ferragamo designer suit, his Gucci shoes and accoutrements. Gold bugs point to this as evidence that Gold is the ultimate currency because it has held its store of value for millennia. Whilst that may be true, shorter time frames reveal a rather messy picture. The chart above shows the U.S. dollar price of Gold versus the annualized rate-of-change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index ( CPI ). If you believe in Gold as a consumer price inflation hedge then, as the CPI is accelerating, the Gold price should be advancing. The black shaded areas show that there have been five occasions since 1980 when the opposite was true, the last year being a good example. On the other side, the Gold-Inflation myth would allude to the price of Gold declining as CPI was decelerating. The white shaded areas show five occasions since 1970 when this was not the case, 2007 to 2010 being a prime example. In fact, the correlation coefficient between the two series turns out to be MINUS 0.43, meaning that not only does no relationship appear to exist, if any does, it’s a negative one. I can hear my old econometric lecturer asking if we’re comparing apples and apples. Well, I suppose we could look at the correlation between the annualized rate-of-change between both series. That turns out to be 0.41. Positive, at least, but still no evidence of a relationship. Even being generous and comparing the Consumer Price Index itself ( which, of course, has risen inexorably ) with the price of Gold gives a correlation coefficient of 0.83. Much better but more akin to the Roman story than anything else. The evidence suggests that, whilst Gold might go up over the long-term as the CPI chronically advances, shorter time frames, which can last years, suggest no relationship at all. “ Poppycock !” the gold bugs say, “ Gold goes up whether we have inflation or deflation. ” It’s true, consumer price deflation during an economic collapse such as in the 1930s may well see the free-market price of Gold advance as people seek it as a survival hedge. During the Great Depression, the fixed price went up from $20.67 to $35 per ounce. But this was a blatant devaluation of the U.S. dollar by the government, not because people were buying Gold; they weren’t allowed to, and, anyway, FDR had stolen their holdings. In conclusion, therefore, the recent relationship between Gold and the CPI has not been unusual in an historic context. What happens next? Thankfully, Gold is a free market these days, so the Elliott waves should guide us. Stay tuned.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ferGOD
XAUUSD LONG TO 1974This here is my Gold long analysis long term back up to 1974 to cover all the imbalance created throughout 2021. This here is a sell to buy trade. I still expect one more wave down towards 1735-1710 in order to grab liquidity for the year. After that move is complete, Gold will be ready for its yearly Bull run. Possibly even possible to create a yearly high now that the long term correction is about to be finished. If you look back on my profile and see my further analysis, this here is an ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS. My main analysis is Gold shorts down towards 1570. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
XAUUSD LONG TO 1837I am currently looking to buy Gold again as a retracement. Last month we saw Gold drop roughly 1000 PIPS to the downside in a very sharp move showing that Gold is currently in a downtrend. Looking at market structure, we can see that Gold has been been creating a corrective pattern which also indicated a loss of momentum for sellers, hence why we've seen ZERO Gold moves this ENTIRE MONTH. This here was officially Wave 1 of the new downtrend. The move back up to 1826-1837 will be the corrective wave (Wave 2). Depending on how market reacts around that zone, we can start looking at a deeper move down towards 1670-1640 as our next target. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors. Drop a like if you agree with the analysis and want to see more!
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by BA_Investments
SHORT ON GOLD - SUPPLY & DEMANDGOLD is currently at a key supply zone, marked out on the 30M timeframe. Previously, GOLD has rejected this zone with strong momentum, and we can already see strong selling pressure at this zone. We've just seen a huge bearish engulfing candle formed the 30M timeframe, creating a new lower low. I am now looking for GOLD to come up to supply once more to complete the head & shoulder pattern making that lower high which so happens to line up with the 61.8 Fibonacci level. I personally believe GOLD is heading higher into the 1800 (Golden zone) where we have another supply zone, however GOLD has started to reject the 30M supply zone instead but please do trade with caution! Long-term- I believe GOLD is going to break out of this range and head up to the mid-1800 area in the next few weeks/months. This idea is fuelled by the high inflation rate around the world, specifically the US where they are at a 38 year high of 6.8%. GOLD is seen as a hedge against inflation and with concerns over the new Covid variant, investors may start moving their money into safer assets such as GOLD / US Dollar / Japanese Yen. This is merely a possibility and a trading idea so please do trade with caution and ensure correct risk management is implemented. Good luck and let me know your thoughts!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TomBray1
1
PLATINUM LONG TO $1400Similar to all the other commodities, it seems like Platinum could be getting ready for another bull run in 2022, after spending most of this year declining. Not much volume in the markets right now, but this could be used as a chance by buyers to accumulate momentum in order to push it up when volume re-enters in 2022. Could still see just a little push lower to take out September lows & grab liquidity, but overall, this would be the right price to invest into Platinum. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself and my Account Management investors.
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by BA_Investments