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The Proper Perspective on InflationAs any true trader knows, the inflation rate DID NOT GO UP 8.3%. That is what some retail news outlets claimed "year-over-year," which is plain misinformation. The retail news was designed to trigger a panic dump among the less informed last week. FACT: The rise in inflation started in late 2020, not this year. FACT: The rise in 2021 went to 7%. But the news seldom mentioned it last year. Nope, it was all about vaccines and Covid, etc. The inflation rate went down. It has been trending downward at a sustainable rate. Anyone who thought it would be lower was not paying attention. There is a 3-month decline, and it is due to falling oil prices which were constantly boosted upward during August by the big banks trying to move more investors into buying oil stocks. So, with fluctuating prices of oil between 80 - 92, there was NO WAY inflation would tick down to 8.1%. In August of 2021, inflation had already risen to 5.3%. Now in 2022, it has dropped to 8.3% from the peak of 9.1% in June. So it's 3 points higher than a year ago, obviously not 8.3 points higher. During the pandemic of 2020, the news about the Federal Reserve Board was all lathered up about deflation, that deflation was about to happen, and the world was coming to an end!!!! Sigh. Some people just have to have bad news to feel good, I guess. Oil and the war in Ukraine, which appears to be settling down with the Ukrainians taking back what is rightly their country, has lowered oil prices from $125 to 80-90, fluctuating regularly. Oil needs to drop to 70-80 for inflation to move down more. Slow improvement is how it is going to be. To assume inflation would just drop back to 2% is irrational and illogical. What is an ideal rate? For an expanding economy: around 4-5%. See that red arrow? That should be the goal. It probably is not, but it should be. Inflation lower than that indicates a sluggish economy with a lack of raises for the workforce. When inflation is not in the economy, corporations use buybacks to boost their stock prices, which creates fake rallies.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Global Market Reacts Positively Amid Reduced U.S Inflation RateGlobal Market Reacts Positively Amid Reduced U.S Inflation Rate Compared to June, the annual rate of inflation reduced marginally to 8.5%. Bitcoin is trading at $24,003 with a 4% increase in the last 24 hours. After a long period of stagnation, U.S inflation has fallen for the first time since April. Compared to June, the annual rate of inflation reduced marginally to 8.5%, according to the most recent statistics release. The July CPI was projected to be 8.7%. Well, it’s possible that a decline in inflation may be a beneficial thing since it would help dilute the Fed’s aggressive position and lead to lower interest rates. The main indexes, which had ended Tuesday’s session in the negative, responded favorably to this new information. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s futures soared by 400 points, or 1.2%, on Monday morning. S&P 500 futures rose by 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 2.4% in tandem. Market Gains Momentum In reality, the crypto market, which had been in the red for the previous several hours, has now turned green. Recently, though, the link between Bitcoin and the larger market has declined. This suggests that the markets have not always moved in lockstep with one another. The tables may turn in the future, and we may see a collective infusion of liquidity, just as we have seen shock spread from one sector to another thus far. However, this may not happen right away since the crypto market has been ready for a drop for some time. Since Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are gaining ground, Bitcoin is following suit. Bitcoin is trading at $24,003 with a 4% increase in the last 24 hours as per CMC. In addition, exchange inflows have been increasing during the previous several days. Merely 10.8k BTC were sent to exchanges on August 7th, according to statistics from CryptoQuant. The 36.7k BTC figure on Tuesday, on the other hand, reveals a shift in mood.
Education
by TheNewsCrypto
11
BOTTOM IS CLOSE ON BTC!!!In this video i am explaining where i think we are going to go from here and also i'm looking at the 4 hourly, daily, weekly and monthly chart, as well i am looking at inflation rate chart and DXY . This is my third video and i hope you'll like it. Also i'm sorry for my speaking mistakes, I'm trying to improve my english. I forgot to mention that 300 weekly ma is also at the bottom of my monthly channel and also i forgot to mention that i am still in my short position from the top of the range at 32400k. What do you think about my second third video and analysis ? Feel free to leave a comment. If you like my ideas please follow me and like because you can always find something interesting on my profile, i am new to Treadingview but i have 6 years expirience in trading. DON'T SELL YOUR CRYPTO BTC TO THE MOON!!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Mladen94
8
Will inflation peak this week? 14 Feb – 19 Feb, 2022*Please note; The author is working from UTC +13 when determining the timeline of data releases. Will inflation peak this week? 14 Feb – 19 Feb, 2022 Six significant inflation rate figures will keep investors on their toes almost every day of this week, with the most important data concentrated on Wednesday trading. Bear in mind the expectations for most of the inflation data figures are strongly suggesting that inflationary pressure has already peaked. So, watch out for deviations from these hopeful expectations. Tuesday, February 15: India Inflation Rate YoY JAN The week opens with India's Inflation Rate YoY to January. The data is released on Tuesday morning, and the market is expecting India's Inflation Rate to rise to 6.0% from the current 5.59%. The Indian Rupee is trading at a 7-week low against the US Dollar and a 3 ½- month low against the British Pound. The Rupee's weakness so far (and possibly to continue after Tuesday's data release) can be explained, in part, by the Reserve Bank of India less-hawkish stance than the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England concerning raising interest rates. India's Inflation Rate hitting 6.0% isn't expected to radically alter the Reserve Bank of India's relatively less-hawkish stance. Wednesday, February 16: China Inflation Rate YoY JAN UK Inflation Rate YoY JAN South Africa Inflation Rate YoY JAN Expect three inflation rate data releases across Wednesday afternoon that may have the most considerable impact on this week's trading. In order of appearance: China's Inflation Rate YoY to January is forecast to fall from 1.5% to 1.00%. The UK's Inflation Rate YoY to January is forecast to remain flat at 5.4%. The direction that South Africa's Inflation Rate YoY to January is expected to head is contentious. The majority of the market expects the South African Inflation Rate to subdue a fraction of a percentage point from 5.9% to 5.7% or 5.6%. However, TradingEconomics is forecasting a rise to 6.0%. Thursday, February 17: Canada Inflation Rate YoY JAN Canada's Inflation Rate YoY to January, released very early Thursday morning, is forecast to remain flat at 4.8%. Thursday’s result may force investors to reconsider their exodus from the Canadian Dollar last week, as US Inflation hit a 40-year high and expectations for an aggressive US Federal Reserve response heightened. The same forces could be in play this week but in the opposite direction. The Bank of Canada is on the edge of a more aggressive stance and hotter than expected inflation could essentially guarantee that it enacts its first post-pandemic interest rate increase on March 2. Friday, February 18: Japan Inflation Rate YoY JAN Closing out the week is Japan's Inflation Rate YoY to January, released mid-day Friday. The market consensus is a mild increase to 0.9% from the current Inflation Rate of 0.8%. As Japanese companies are extremely slow to hike prices, Japan's peak inflation may lag other nations and continue to rise above 0.9% in the ensuing months. For one, the Bank of Japan is expecting inflation to hit 1.1% YoY to April, but still well under the Banks target annual inflation of 2.0%. Consequently, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy and its -0.1% short term benchmark interest rate for the foreseeable future. As such, it might be a shock for the Japanese Yen to improve its position from its 5-year low against the US Dollar.
ECONOMICS:CAIRYY
by BlackBull_Markets
CPI - January Recalc / Base effect 1982 to 2020 MedianFriday, I received a call from a friend, she was beside herself in disgust, anger, and disbelief by the latest disturbance in the Farce. Her communication caught me completely off guard, left me overturned in anger, shock, disbelief. Questioning as to whether I should have seen this coming, anticipated the exponential change in outright "distortion" - the effect was as if someone had set off a Nuke inside my head. The BLS website confirmed the change, Zerohedge picked it a few hours later. Media outlets ignored it - given Fitch was the only rating agency to contact EverGrande... Moody's and Standard and Poors made no attempt... the News was left in the Dumpster Fire of Inequity. ___________________________________________________________________________________ 1982 has been used in the Majority of CPI Methodology for CPI Calculation. Friday the BLS Issued the following statement - "January 2022 CPI weight update Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions, but decided to maintain normal procedures." Effectively reducing the Denominator for CPI by a large Margin. www.bls.gov _____________________________________________________________________________________ CPI Formula: CPI_t = ( C_t ) / ( C_0 ) x 100 CPI_t consumer price index in the current period C_t = cost of the market basket in the current period C_0 = cost of the market basket in the base period _____________________________________________________________________________________ 1982 was chosen as the Shocks of the late '70s to 1981 were beginning to subside from a High of 14.6%. By Example, for simplicity: Base Years: 2012 / 2013 / 2014 Base Basket of Goods / Services Consumed: $15 / $20 / $25 2012 @ 15 / 12 x 100 = 125 2013 @ 16 / 12 x 100 = 133 2014 @ 17 / 12 x 100 = 142 ________________________________________________________________________________________ Inflation Rate Calculation - Year over Year Base Adjustment 2012 to 2013: ( 133 - 125 ) / 125 x 100 = 6.4 % Year over Year 2013 to 2014: ( 142 - 133 ) / 133 x 100 = 6.67 % Year over Year ________________________________________________________________________________________ Using the BLS Base year for Cumulative Rate of Inflation as the denominator is where Reality sets in and provides a cumulative result. 1982 to 2013: ( 133 - 75 ) / 75 x 100 = 77.3% The Cumulative Base Effect using the 1982 CPI - Inflation Rate of - 77.3 % ________________________________________________________________________________________ Beginning January 2022 the Denominator will be changed - to precisely where we do not know. What we do know is this, it will be moved far higher. This will reduce the Rate of Inflation. _________________________________________________________________________________________ By Example ( Assumed Newly Adjusted Base Unknown ) 2022 to ~2020 Base ( 102 - 96 ) / 96 x 100 = 6.25 % 102.1 is the BLS Stated Rate of 2021 CPI My Inflation rate is far higher, as it includes all Goods and Services weighted by average Household Consumption It currently remains on an increasing trajectory @ 28.96%. It includes an approximation of most, if not very close to ALL of the "Things We Need". ___________________________________________________________________________________________ The impact of this change will have far-reaching Economic, Political, and Social consequences. I'd prefer to hear your thoughts on the ramifications as opposed to providing commentary.
FRED:MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE
by HK_L61
15