S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/08
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 09/07: "The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the...
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SPX has been going on a W ride for a while and is currently only down around 15 percent from its mid Feb high, putting it in the midpoint of the correction and recession phase. If this trend continues on, it is safe to expect that SPX will more likely to challenge its mid Feb high than...
I've stuck with looking at M1 as a general proxy for economic stimulus more broadly for the sake of simplicity as this an overview.
The primary implicit question here is whether or not more economic stimulus will be effective or not and to what extent under the present circumstances.
The need for liquidity in the markets has certainly been evident recently, as...
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Due to the whole market meltdown, NIO has retraced back to Fib 0.786 lvl early this week. However, it has since then rebounded strongly and is currently fighting the resistance lvl.
Barring the continuing worsened market condition, I believe NIO's distribution cycle is nearly over. The current bargain...
Charts:
- Top left = SPX
- Bottom left = Initial jobless claims (unemployment metric)
- Top right = US 10 year and US 2 year spread (Yield curve inversion metric)
- Bottom right = Fed funds rate (short-term interest rates)
It is no secret that US equities are grossly overvalued, from Warren Buffet to Stanley Druckenmiller to Ray Dalio, the smart money has made...
