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Tracking Economy with this Ratio – Copper vs Gold RatioThe Fed is using the Copper / Gold ratio in tracking economy and its growth. Currently, the copper / gold ratio is still trending downward, which indicates that the economy may not be recovering that soon. Copper Oil Futures & Options Ticker: HG Minimum fluctuation: 0.0005 per pound = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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COMEX:HG1!Long
by konhow
8
Feb 24 CADJPY Short-term bear before LONG PositionMTF Analysis Monthly TF had a big push up from tapping the 38.2 Monthly Fib retracement. On a weekly TF, this retracement bounce on a Monthly 38.2 Fib is a bull run. This weekly TF bull run has run out right at the previous month's high, previous week's high, and prev day's high -- which was the best entry point had i done Wyckoff analysis earlier Anyway, since price has ran out of gas on this weekly bull run, it's actually about to break the weekly/daily trendline it's been bouncing off of. My bias is that price will retrace from a Weekly TF perspective to the 38.2 weekly fib level which also perfectly aligns with the previous week's low & an H4 imbalance/inefficiency. Fundamentals to support my bias. JPY had a good inflation YoY rate this morning. CAD had some wobly numbers from yesterday's economic updates.
Long
by RSC_FX
SPX500 recession is already here?I compared what happened in 2008 with current chart: - In 2008, the market fell over 50% - In 2008, the bear market lasted around 450 days If we’re about to witness similar situation now, we are long way from the bottom: - 50% drop would be around 2200, they we would see double bottom and trend revelsal - the bear market would last till March/April 2023 Of course the market doesn’t have to repeat the same pattern. I believe the worst is yet to come. If we look into this using Elliott waves, we did Wave 1, we’re about to finish Wave 2- 4200 strong resistance. It means next Wave 3 will be a big one. After seeing good numbers on Non Farm Payrols last Friday, the markets didn’t rally. It means Fed might be more hawkish in September to fight the inflation, raising interests rates even by 0.75 point. It is not a trading advice, please do your own analysis.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
AUDUSD - Short Post US Inflation DataWe still hold a short view on AUDUSD despite the currency pair continuing it's rebound from yearly lows around the 0.7 psychological level. Additionally, the US inflation rate came in today at 6.8 % as forecast resulting in limited price action. However, the impact of the Omicron covid variant could disproportionately impact the Australian dollar as it is sensitive to the shocks in the global economy as commodity currency whilst the United States Dollar is seen as a safe haven. Therefore we anticipate AUDUSD continuing it's long term downtrend and challenging support at 0.71356 in the coming weeks.
Short
by KQMarkets
The CPI Fantasy And Commodity PricesRodney Dangerfield was one of my all-time favorite comedians. He was a master at the one-liner, and while his catchphrase was “I don’t get no respect,” he got plenty. Rodney passed in 2004, but his legacy lives on in films. His role as Thornton Melon in the 1986 comedy classic Back to School continues to have a cult following. As he sat in an economics class, the professor created a theoretical company that sold widgets, the favorite product of academics. The lesson included funding the company and developing a marketing strategy for the widgets. Rodney’s character, already a wealthy businessman, attempted to point out the realities of starting a business, but the professor objected. Rodney then glibly asked the economist if his factory was in “fantasy land.” While the film was a fictional comedy, there is a fine line between fiction and nonfiction. The US Federal Reserve continues to call rising inflationary pressures “transitory.” Long ago, the economists massaged the consumer price data to extract a core that excludes food and energy prices called “core CPI.” Thornton Melon would call the core data “fantasy land” as food and energy are the critical factors that take a bite out of consumers’ budgets. Another significant increase in the inflation barometer Core CPI is fantasy land Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve Another significant increase in the inflation barometer In June and July, the previous month’s consumer price index data was off the charts, indicating rising inflation. This month, the July CPI reading rose 5.4%, another sky-high level. While the number was in line with the market’s expectations, core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 0.3% compared to the forecast level at 0.4%. The market interpreted the core number as less inflationary as it was below the expected reading. Core CPI is fantasy land Economists are social scientists, making their projections and interpretations highly subjective. They argue that core CPI better reflects inflationary pressures because food and energy prices can be highly volatile. Excluding them from the inflation barometer smooths the data. In statistics, the science of data, hedonic regression is the application of regression analysis to estimate the impact of various factors on the price of demand for a good. Hedonics is commonly used in real estate pricing as a quality adjustment for price indices. When it comes to inflation, excluding food and energy from the CPI is similar. The problem with core CPI is that food and energy make up a significant part of budgets. Rising prices for the products that fuel our lives and provide nutrition for our bodies is taking an ever-increasing bite out of paychecks is a reality, while eliminating them distorts the actual cost of living for the majority of people. Economists massage data. The US Federal Reserve relies on statistics in its monetary policy decision-making process. Thornton Melon would say that core CPI only exists in “fantasy land.” Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Anyone that fills their car with gasoline, heats or cools their homes, or eats, will tell you that prices are a lot higher in August 2021 than they were in August 2020. Futures prices are real-time objective data as they reflect where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment. The evidence pointing to the reality of rising inflation from the August 2020 high to the August 13, 2021 closing level on the nearby futures contracts is clear: Nearby NYMEX crude oil prices increased from $43.78 to $68.44 per barrel, an increase of 56.3%. Gasoline moved from $1.4395 to $2.2626 per gallon or 57.2%. Heating oil and distillate prices rose from $1.3054 to $2.0779 per gallon, a 59.2% rise. Natural gas appreciated from $2.743 to $3.861 per MMBtu or 40.8%. Corn rose from $3.53 to $5.6825 per bushel or 61.0%. Soybeans rallied from $9.67 to $13.73 per bushel or 42.0%. CBOT wheat increased from $5.5175 to $7.6225 per bushel or 38.2%. Coffee rose from $1.3080 to $1.8275 per pound or 39.7%. Sugar moved from 13.28 cents to 19.95 cents per pound or 50.2%. Live cattle appreciated from $1.08225 to $1.28125 per pound or 18.4%. Lean hogs are up from 56.70 cents to 86.525 per pound or 52.6% over the period. The substantial increases in food and energy commodities paint a very inflationary picture. Moreover, the price rises reflect wholesale levels. Retail prices have risen far more over the past year. Yesterday, I paid over $4.20 per gallon for gasoline in Las Vegas, double the price last year. Food and energy prices are the tip of an inflationary iceberg. Education, health care, and housing costs are soaring. All raw material prices have moved appreciably higher. Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same In reality, prices are soaring in the Fed’s “fantasy land,” the core CPI data does not look all that bad as they only rose 0.3% in August. However, our food and energy bills went up a hell of a lot more last month. Over the past months, the Fed blamed rising inflationary pressures on lumber, new and used car prices, and other “transitory” factors created by bottlenecks in supply chains and other pandemic-related factors. The academic ivory tower where the economists sit is far above ground zero, where consumers shop each day. The definition of “transitory” is not permanent. Adjectives are temporary, transient, brief, short, short-lived, fleeting, and passing. “Transitory,” in a literal sense, requires an end date. So far, the Fed has not provided that data to the market. When asked about the period the central bank measures its 2% average inflation target, Chairman Powell replied it is “discretionary” or available for use at the user’s discretion. Transitory and discretionary is Fed-speak for leave it to us. They are non-answers to critical questions about the Fed’s interpretation and policy stance. Transitory reflects the central bank’s hopes and wishes, while discretionary tells us they will figure it all out someday. The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve The bottom line is that the most objective measures of inflation are the wholesale futures prices and the retail costs of living. Food and energy prices are only a microcosm of rising prices across all asset classes. Money’s purchasing power is eroding because of the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus. Even if the Fed bites the bullet and addresses rising inflation, the government continues to spend without abandon. A $3.5 trillion budget initiative before the US Congress with an infrastructure rebuilding package only increases the debt level. The Fed is living in “fantasy land” as inflation continues to rise. In August 2020, gold made a new record high. In May 2021, lumber, copper, and palladium prices rose to all-time peaks. Grains and oilseeds rose to eight-year highs in 2021. In July, coffee futures rose to their highest price since 2014. Bull markets in the volatile commodities sector rarely move in a straight line. The ascent of prices has been nothing short of a bull market relay race, with one commodity handing the baton to the next. The most recent recipient was the sugar market, which rose to over 20 cents per pound last week, the highest price since 2017. Even if we use statistical methods to smooth the bullish price action, the underlying trends reveal that the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy is far behind the inflationary curve. Inflation can be a challenging beast to tame. As it rises, the central bank’s refusal to acknowledge and address the economic condition will reward it with the lack of respect it deserves. We live in a stark reality created by policies that continue to erode money’s value. Rodney Dangerfield was a comedian. There is a fine line between comedy and tragedy. If the approach to monetary policy that hides behind massaged data were not so tragic, it would be funny. 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CBOT:ZC1!
by Andy_Hecht
Silver - Short Pre FEDSilver has consolidated below support at $25.2 and we feel can move lower if the FED suggests that they will raise rates and taper asset purchases earlier than expected by the market. The market expects the FED to continue it's dovish stance due to renewed fears over the impact of covid on the global economy despite rising inflation. The US inflation rate released on the 13th July was 5.4% YoY vs 4.9% forecast and the FED has indicated that it would likely to let inflation continue to rise instead of raising rates which would impact the impact recovery. However, there is division amongst FED officials about when to start pulling back the monetary stimulus which would increase the likelihood of the FED raising rates putting downward pressure on Silver prices. Depending on the outcome of the FED meeting tomorrow and the resultant price action Silver could quickly drop towards support at $24 given it's volatile nature.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDShort
by KQMarkets