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Innercircletrader

$EURUSD Swing Sell Underway - Another one So this Blue Horizontal line that I've had on my charts for quite some time represents a significant resistance/support line for the past 8 years or so. I call the daily bias for the EURUSD to be a sell, and it was overnight and when I woke up I immediately exited the trade with a mere but decent 20 pips, closing the trade at 1.18337 about 8 hours ago. The move shifted sideways and then within the last part of the day I noticed the strong surge upwards, until it hit my resistance line that has been marked for weeks at 1.18790. I kinda looked at it for a second. Then I looked at the big picture and thought this could be another swing trade. So I went for it. Within the previous day it has attacked a daily high and a daily low but has not broken either of them. So tomorrow it's going to be a given that it will break one or the other. So I have set up second entry zone and that is just above the next two daily highs and allows for a stop loss above the 3rd daily high. I will probably try a combination of entry points and stop/losses to mitigate risk as I always do. Never put your eggs in one basket!! Where I drew my historical support/resistance line just happened to the bottom of an Order Block. (See Chart) As for Take Profit Goals, I chose 1.17400 because it's just below the current swing low and it's an institutional/psy number. No one at a bank is going to be aimin for 1.174214. And it also comes in contact with an order block that could turn the trade north depending on what time of day it is when it gets there. My second take profit area is 1.17000 which is just above a 4 hour low/swing low of 1.16978 and just below a daily low. Once/if I hit these zones I'll leave about a 5% profit trailer to roam to see if it gets lower while my s/l is below entry. Again, the Commercial banks are very net short with EU even though they have been adding longs. I did check the Open interest last night and it seems to be steadily rising, which wouldn't necessarily call for a sell. Unless a drop in interest has just happened or is about to happen. Here's a chart with the COT report, stochastic with interest, and Money flow with interest rates. The Money Flow Index with the Open Interest seems to be Diverging which would signal a sell in the near future. I'm not expecting it to turn around and sell off now. But I do Expect a struggle, probably breaking the highs (barely) before dropping a few hundred pips by the end of next week. Also Linked is every EURUSD call I've made so you can see the timeline of how bad I used to make calls, and my progression to making better calls and realizing where I went wrong with incorrect ones. At least now they're all in one spot. During this period I'll be trying to add more positions as well as give a breakdown of price action on this thread as the trade moves along. Just my two cents. And just a reminder, I could be completely WRONG. I'm just some guy with a 9-5 job that likes to post his ideas on here :) FX:EURUSD
Short
by BodiesXWix
1
$EURUSD Short - Pulling Back For Another SellI have two depictions as to what could happen and one may have already happened but I don't think so. It has barely touched the 15 minute order block for it to be selling already and there's too much movement in the 5 min chart that Il'll show here. There are two 5 min order blocks that price could reach before returning lower. The first around 1.8305 and the second around 1.8412. This could used to add another position to a swing sell I have that related to this idea (which is why you see the TP1 running through the middle of my charts) or it can be a quick 20-30 pip scalp. depend on which position you choose and which it actually goes to. it appears to be enticing buyers with a stop loss but I don't think that's all it's doing is trying to attract buyers. Fingers Crossed.
Short
by BodiesXWix
Innercircletraders Concepts I feel like a lot more retail traders need to get on board with ICTs concepts. One of the main reasons a lot of retail traders lose money is because they don’t Understand how the Market works so they are technically trading blindly. Market Makers Are the ones that move the market to create liquidity as without it, orders won’t be filled, and this is why a lot of retail traders lose money as they tend to trade against MMs due to lack of knowledge of how the Market behaves. HOWEVER with ICTs concepts you’ll be able to trend on the right side of the market
TVC:DXYShort
by philip_chuky