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Innercircletrader

"The Bodies Tell The Story.. The Wicks Do The Damage" - ICTIn this video I'm going to go through one of ICT's most famous sayings, which is "The bodies tell the story, and the wicks do the damage". If haven't taken the time to understand what he means, then you are seriously putting yourself at a disadvantage if you are using his concepts. This is one of the most crucial and useful pieces of the ICT puzzle. You often hear him say that the wicks are painting outside of the lines, which he sees as permissable when he is trading his PD Arrays. So without further ado, I'll try my best to provide some insight. For illustrative purposes I'll use his Market Maker Sell Model. Just to note that this is not a video teaching about his market maker models, so the focus will not be on that or his other concepts. If you don't understand a certain term or concept, please check out ICT's YouTube Channel or the countless other resources online. This video will be predominantly shedding some light on candle bodies and wicks. I urge you to go into your own charts and do your own study. This will truly be something eye opening if it is the first time you've actually decided to take notice. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
2
R2F Weekly Analysis - 5th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Hi everyone, Here we are at another Sunday. Time for some analysis. Everything I had to say is covered in the video, but for a TLDR; I am still bullish on the Dollar. Although, I'm not convinced we have reached an intermediate bottom yet. I'm still waiting for more confirmation in order to have the highest probability of being on-side. Comparing with other forex assets, I also have the same sentiment. Lower prices for XXXUSD and higher prices for USDXXX, but still waiting for more confirmation for a larger swing trade. For now, scalps at most. Have a good trading week you guys. Stay safe out there. - R2F
TVC:DXY
by Road_2_Funded
2
EURUSD - Updated Analysis (Bearish Bias)Hello hello, I am anticipating TWO possible scenarios. For context, you would have to know ICT's Concepts, particularly Time & Price Theory, Price Delivery Continuum, and the PD Array Matrix. Sounds fancy shmancy, but it isn't, it's actually quite beautiful. Anyway, the TWO scenarios are: 1. Price comes up into the RED circle area. We have a large inefficiency on lower timeframes. On the Weekly we see a Body Breaker and a New Month Opening Gap. After that, price displaces lower this Thursday or Friday as there is also NFP. What i'm looking for is price closing below the current SIBI that the Weekly candle is in. 2. Price does not come up to that area this week, then I am looking for a 3W Sibi to be created and traded into first before moving lower. But preferably, I would like to see that no Weekly candle closes above the current Weekly gap. Please refer to my previous EURUSD analysis for more information on what I am looking for, and how I am looking for it. - R2F
by Road_2_Funded
2
EURUSD - Time to trap the herd going long?As mentioned in my previous analysis on EURUSD, what I was looking for came to pass. The large swing move did not occur yet, so i'm anticipating one more spike up higher before we head to the downside. I have a few things leaning towards my short bias: 1. Seasonal tendency for the USD is stronger. This is suspect for XXXUSD pairs to be going up. 2. May's monthly candle barely went lower in terms of Power of 3 manipulation, meaning i'm leaning more towards the manipulation being on the upside rather than downside. 3. DXY has my signature R2F Gap where I anticipate a reversal on EURUSD, and EURUSD has a nice area of inefficiency and a Breaker, which are both my favorite models. 4. Other EURUSD correlated assets are engineering Sellside Liquidity for later. A long could be taken higher, but I will be stalking the short setup i've been waiting for. I was open to it being the recent spike lower, but I see now the market is trying to do a multiple switcheroo. This will likely be the last one. So let's see what happens! Exciting times! - R2F
TVC:DXYShort
by Road_2_Funded
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello, My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside. At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go. The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines. Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY. - R2F
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Road_2_Funded
2
EURUSD - Long Trade IdeaHello folks, I am generally bearish on EURUSD at the moment, and I am still waiting for lower prices, but we could see more bullish momentum first. The logic behind this is of course to lure more bullish traders into the market, but I also do not see any significantly high impact news yet. However, if you see my other analysis, I am looking for a monthly close below the Monthly iFVG in order to be used as resistance, as mentioned in my previous analysis. That being said, take this trade idea as less than a A+ setup. Most of the probability of this trade lies price being at a ranged Discount, and in the efficacy of my R2F Gap coupled with a possible London Judas Swing. Safe trading! - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
NZDUSD - Short Trade Idea (ICT)Hello hello everyone, I see a potentially nice trade forming on NZDUSD. A possible 500+ pips to be had as a swing position. As you can see, my bias is bearish. I believe we will target the Relative Equal Lows below. I would have to see price start to move lower in the general vicinity of the illustrated path lines. If I don't get an entry in that area, then I would be keen to take one at the Bisi 2W R2F gap should we get a 2W close below it and then a retracement back into it. Let's see how it goes! - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
GBPJPY - Long Trade IdeaI like the long idea here. If the current day can form a Bisi, that would be fantastic. After that I would just be looking price to trade back into the Bisi, into one of the key Breaker levels annotated, at the right time of the day, then STRIKE. The highest-probability target would be the recent high, and the next discretionary target would be my Wick Chair model (out of view), which basically also has some EQHs as well. A runner could be left for even higher prices should both targets be hit. The stoploss is discretionary for a better RR as this is the Daily timeframe. The safest option would be the protected low annotated on the chart. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
EURUSD - Short Trade IdeaThis is just a "prediction" on what may occur on EURUSD. Price has reversed to the upside since bottoming out on the 2nd of April 2024. This coincides with the US Dollars seasonal tendency. However, I have been bullish dollar and expecting a continuation of lower prices on XXXUSD currencies. Currently, I am waiting for a reversal to occur, preceded by a final fake-out to bait the herd into going long. This would likely happen at a high-impact news driver such as the upcoming CPI or PPI. There is a Hidden Bearish Orderblock on the 4h timeframe, so that currently is my area of interest for this event to happen. Of course, this is all just anticipation. If the sequence of events in time and price do not align, I will just wait on the sidelines for more confirmation in market structure. - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
USDCAD - Long Trade IdeaThis is a long trade idea I have, based on the abundance of buyside liquidity in the form of relative equal highs that extend beyond the left of the chart, as well as the trendline resistance building up below it. Whilst it is possible for price to make new lows, my focus is on HOW and WHEN price reacts when it gets to this POI. Although the DXY seems overextended, many of the XXXUSD pairs have yet to reach their draw on liquidity, furthermore, they have created even more relative equal lows. This further adds to my USDCAD bias. My only concern is that the DXY generally sees more seasonally bearish sentiment during the month of April. Let's see what pans out. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
AUDUSD - Bullish Outlook (ICT)Here is my outlook on AUDUSD. Price recently got rejected at a Monthly Bisi which is also a Weekly Orderblock, and started to shape some up movement. My bias for this to continue is that buyside trendline liquidity residing above, coupled with the significance of a higher timeframe Discount Array. On the lower timeframes there is more buyside liquidity engineered on the way up, along with some whipsawing price action which signifies to me a shakeout before displacing to the upside. This is just a prediction. Price can very well make another low first to around the 0.6425 level first, and if it does that and displaces one more time back to the upside, I will feel very confident in that narrative. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
EURUSD - Short Trade IdeaBearish trade idea on EURUSD. The next DOL/Target from my point of view is the REQLs below 1.0795 at the first objective. My POI to look for a short is within the 12h Sibi residing not too far away which is also a Unicorn setup. There is news on Tuesday, either to initiate the manipulation and reversal, or continuation of the reversal that will happen today (Monday, 25th March 2024). This is what I am anticipating and will wait for price to show evidence of a reversal before initiating a short. - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
4
This Completing Transformed My Trading (RESPECT & DISRESPECT)The idea of RESPECT and DISRESPECT completely transformed my ability to effectively read price action and trade profitably. ICT teaches about Premium/Discount (PD) Arrays. There is a lot of bickering and debate as to which of these PD Arrays are better. I'm here to build a case for the idea that they are all equally effective, and are just reference points on a chart to build a trade idea around. To me, it boils down to: Which levels are being RESPECTED or DISRESPECTED? That's it for me, that's what made it all click. That is what helped me stop worrying about every little level on the chart. Once you have a high time frame (HTF) narrative and draw on liquidity (DOL), you know which PD arrays you want to see respected and disrespected. Coming up with your HTF Narrative is also based around what levels are being RESPECTED or DISRESPECTED. I hope this video can give you an a-ha moment like it did for me.
Education
by Tradius_Trades
XAUUSD │GOLD BULLS OR BEARS WHO WILL WIN? We continued to see that bull strength throughout the week. If the daily timeframe trend stays true, we will see price break the all-time high eventually but it is not resistance free rallying. We just tapped into a supply zone that caused a meltdown of 5%. Therefore, this psychological level will probably see some fighting between bulls and bears before it is broken. However, keep in the back of your mind that the four-hour timeframe is still bullish, just because we tapping into that strong zone doesn’t necessarily mean sell off, we will look to trade the pullback but will not assume a reversal until a break of four hour strong lows. The 15 minute timeframe is still bullish I have yet to see a change of character but the candles printing are indicative of a pullback so we will monitor to see if prices indicates whether it wants to reverse or if it is just correcting before the next leg up. The 5-minute timeframe is also still bullish but is printing lower highs while maintaining the high low, which is also indicative of a correction. I will need to see a break of structure lows to consider trading the pullback. Final Thoughts The big boys are net short on GOLD according to the COT data but a combined non-reportable, non-commercial and commercial are leaning towards bulls. However, as I always say, the trend is your friend and until I see my long-term timeframe structure violated I am assuming the market is just pulling back to continue bullish. COT REPORT www.tradingster.com
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Austin_Palmer
Crude Oil WTI - Analysis (ICT)Simple analysis on the Monthly timeframes. There is trendline liquidity residing above, which I believe is the next draw on price. With that in mind, I noticed price react nicely off of a 5-Month FVG and Orderblock. With that in mind, I'm anticipating price using the current Sibi that it is in to become an iFVG. I would like to see a Monthly candle close above it and then use it or a created Bisi as support to trade higher. Life is simple, don't complicate it. - R2F
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Road_2_Funded
DXY - Bearish Outlook? (ICT)This is my analysis on the Dollar Index. It seems to me that DXY is finally ready to move lower, at least in the short-term. The seasonality of the DXY peaks about now and weakens all the way until the start of May. Whilst this is not the core of the analysis, it helps add more confluence. Price-wise, I notice that last week's high took out the bodies of the previous 2 weeks before displacing to the downside, leaving a lovely Unicorn setup. In my eyes, this is already good to look for a short in that area. Further confluence is there is trendline sellside liquidity building up, so for a narrative we may be looking for price to touch/pierce or come close to it first before entering the Unicorn setup. If more sellside liquidity is created before entering the setup, even better. Let's see how it goes! - R2F
TVC:DXYShort
by Road_2_Funded
GBPUSD - Analysis (ICT)This is a possible scenario for GBPUSD, annotated on the 1h timeframe. Price just took out sellside liquidity and reversed back up rapidly during news on the 1st March 2024. There is much trendline liquidity residing above, but there is also a 3-week and monthly FVG below (off screen). The narrative I have in mind is for price to at least either make one more high near the C.E of the NDOG or slightly piercing the trendline, then heading to the downside. Or, for a bullish scenario, price breaks convincingly above the trendline, then finds support to move higher. Let's see what unfolds. - R2F
by Road_2_Funded
USDJPY - Short Trade Idea (ICT)This is a short trade idea for the Gopher. There are equal highs as a target above, but I believe we will possibly head to the downside first towards the sellside liquidity and a signature Weekly R2F Gap, coupled with a refined Daily and 6h gap. What I will be looking for is a convincing shift in market structure and displacement on a lower timeframe to validate this narrative, of course, at an appropriate day of week and time of day. Let's see how this plays out! - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
1