UJ Liq. Equal High Engulf ShortUJ Liq. Equal High Engulf Short
Weekly high area potential reversal trade.
Innercircletrader
EU - Weekly Timeframe Analysis Contrary to GBPUSD, EURUSD ended last week with a very bearish candle, couple with relative equal lows.
A point of interest for me at the moment is the Weekly iFVG residing above to be used as resistance, especially if price does not break the nearest Weekly Lows to the left with any conviction.
Based on my bullishness on DXY, I see EURUSD digging deeper towards Sellside. Also compared to GBPUSD's Commitment of Traders report, EURUSD had a significant decrease in large spec long positions. EURGBP should be quite explosive soon.
DXY - Weekly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)We have more clues on the Weekly timeframe.
Most recently, price broke out of a descending trendline and immediately rebalanced into a small Weekly Bisi (annotated by red arrow), which is usually indicative of rapid continuations to follow.
As a prediction, I see price digging into the Monthly Sibi and the nested Weekly Breaker Block and possibly Weekly Orderblock before a potential HTF reversal. The highlighted Weekly iFVG/Bisi would likely be used as support once price gets into that range.
Based on the current price action, bias, and high-impact news drivers coming out this week such as CPI, PPI, Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims), we could see a potential low of the week on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.
DXY - Monthly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)The Dollar Index has displaced to the upside on the Monthly timeframe. Prior, it dipped into a Monthly Sibi for multiple months before one final stab and bounce.
Current targets are the NMOG and digging into the Monthly Sibi. As a result we should see lower prices XXXUSD pairs in the coming. Seasonally, mid-October sees an incline on the DXY.
EU - Monthly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)EURUSD is clearly heading lower on the Monthly chart. There was a sharp rejection at the large NWOG above, after taking out a Monthly High, and the Monthly candle failed to close above the previous Month's highs.
Now we have displaced towards the low of the recent intermediate Monthly Low. I don't see us heading to new highs from here, and at the very most a manipulative expansion to the upside to shake out short sellers.
We are likely heading towards the Monthly Bisi at the very least in my opinion at face value. See my DXY analysis for more correlation and context.
GU - Weekly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)There is nothing too significant based on last week's candle. My only observation is that it created equal lows and ended with a green candle.
Based on my analysis on the DXY, I could see that weekly candle being a catalyst to induce the bulls into the market.
The only concerning thing is the Commitment of Trader report with large specs still being heavily long. My experience is limited observing the report week by week, but one thing I've learned is that regardless of the report, bias can change on a dime.
GU - Weekly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)On the weekly timeframe I have a POI for a potential reversal to the upside (or at least a retracement), which is at a 2 week FVG, possibly digging into the weekly wick Consequent Encroachment slightly below.
Price recently reacted off the high of a NWOG this week. I am keen to see how it plays out from here.
-R2F
GU Analysis - Monthly Timeframe (ICT)Last monthly price fell short of a monthly FVG and this month retraced lower that last month's low.
Price is currently finding some support at a confluence of PD Arrays (Monthly Order Block, Monthly Breaker Block, and Consequent Encroachment of a inverted monthly wick).
I have no bias at the moment on this timeframe as price could go either way, and we may see choppy moves on the lower timeframes.
-R2F
EU - Weekly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)Price displaced up, to and through the NWOG, stopping almost exactly the top on the weekly timeframe before getting rejected almost just as quickly as it got there.
The previous week traded into a weekly FVG above, and in IOFED fashion it displaced back down to a weekly iFVG.
Currently, price is at equilibrium and could go either way from here. I will be waiting to see if price trades through the iFVG below, or back higher to use the previous FVG as possible support. Only time will tell.
EU - Monthly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)Last month we saw a sharp rejection after taking out a monthly high and monthly open. Currently no body has closed below the monthly FVG/Sibi.
I would be interested to see if price is drawn to take out the previous month's low, and if so, how does it react afterwards. If it takes out the second monthly lows, then the monthly FVG/Sibi would be a nice objective.
Price seems to be delivered efficiently at the monthly -OB, so I would be curious to see if price will be drawn back up there for a higher target.
Overall, no solid bias on my side.
DXY Analysis - Weekly Timeframe (ICT)On the weekly timeframe it is more convincing that the last spike down was a sellside liquidity grab in order to start reaching towards the buyside liquidity, starting with the descending trendline.
I will be anticipating further movement higher over the weeks/months to reach for the weekly Bearish Breaker Block. I also expect a measure of using a previous FVG/iFVG as support before heading higher. If price pushes higher into a weekly Orderblock residing above, then I would consider that the last line of defense before the DXY potentially making new highs.
I am excited about the possible setups based on DXY in the near future.
DXY Analysis - Monthly TimeframeThis is my take on the DXT monthly chart based on ICT's concepts.
R2F
NAS Outlook 8/6NAS left a number of relative qual lows late last week. We are expecting price to want to trade below these to accumulate buy positions before ptonetinally expanding to take out last week’s high. There is a daily OB below price that may support it. the July open price is also at these levels. Interactions with both of these levels can be interpreted as short term discount pricing.
From a macro perspective there is a weekly FVG above price that may be acting as a magnet for higher prices. This is added confluence to the expectation of bullish expansion.
EURUSD Outlook 8/6EURUSD traded into a daily FVG last week and reversed breaking market structure to the upside. We will maintain a bullish expectation till price does something to invalidate the expectation. There is a failed 12H SIBI FVG and an 8H balanced price range. We will be watching to see price interact with this area as potential short term discount for continued expansion.
Expansion targets are the 12H OB and Daily BPR above.
With news late in the week price may choose a number of ways to move before the CPI liquidity clearing. don’t force what isn’t clear in these conditions.
EURUSD Analysis - Potential LongThis is a potential long setup on EURUSD.
I do believe we are gonna start seeking higher prices either CPI today, or PPI tomorrow.
The only other alternative is a drive lower to hunt for liquidity, push the bearish sentiment to the masses, and then crawl back up whilst taking out anyone looking for an opportunity to get in short. Both are valid ideas. Only thing I am confident about is that we will be heading up sooner or later, and this isn't the end of the road.
This setup is based on price not breaking the current low. I used GBPUSD as confluence. The POI is an Orderblock on multiple timeframes. That is the only clear area I can see for a possible retracement, faking a bearish move and heading higher very... VERY... rapidly. Time and price will offer more clues.
Best bet is wait for the high impact news to show the true colours of the market, then get in from there. Other than that, it would be a gamble.
R2F
USDCAD Analysis - Long SetupThis is a possible long setup, without any lower timeframe confirmation, targeting 1.346 at least. However, this may just have been the retracement before heading lower, so I would suggest waiting for more confirmation on lower timeframes to support the entry.
R2F
EURUSD Analysis - Long SetupPossible long setup on EU.
The overall higher timeframe bias is not confirmed in my eye yet, but there may be a potential long intraday form within the current expansion range.
CPI and PPI at the end of the week, so be prepared for funky stuff.
R2F
DXY Outlook 8/6DXY Outlook - DXY is at a bit of a crossroads. on the HTF we have traded into a monthly FVG and have been reacting bullishly off it in recent price. However we have traded into a bearish weekly OB and daily FVG area. Price broke market structure in last weeks trading so at this point I am anticipating short term bearish action. With the most recent bullish daily OB as a potential target, and the mean threshold of the monthly rejection block as a deep discount target.
A failed 12H BISI FVG was violated late last week. Looking to take early sells from this area if I see something I like.
With CPI on Thursday price action is likely to be slow the majority of the week before energetic liquidity clearing during News.
DXY Analysis - Short SetupI am under the anticipation that XXXUSD pairs are accumulating and USDXXX are distributing.
Based on the current price action of the DXY chart, I am anticipating weakness in the Dollar.
This is the setup I have based on DXY, which would have to be translated to respective Forex pairs and/or Commodities, etc.
The safest protocol at the moment is to wait for convincing displacement and structure to form before taking the trade. We have CPI and PPI at the end of the week, so I will see how price forms before that.
2 possible scenarios I will be looking for.
1.) DXY creeps up during the week until CPI to my point of interest, then that could be a good signal for this analysis to play out.
2.) DXY creeps down then pumps up during CPI, and then lingers at my point of interest before PPI, then that could also be a good confluence.
My only concern is that the DXY wants to continue rallying to take out the higher timeframe trendline liquidity and fill imbalances back at a Premium level. I would be surprised due to the increased hedging by commercials. But, anything is possible!
Yours truly,
R2F
EURUSD Outlook 7/31EURUSD Outlook - EURUSD is HTF Bullish. Price just validated a bullish monthly OB and is now returning into the body of this OB. we can anticipate bullish price action from within the body to a new recent high.
Last week traded into what can be considered a daily bullish breaker. there is a 12hour balanced price range below the weekly open price. The expectation is that price will likely trade at least to the 12h BPR and potentially to the daily FVG below, before looking to expand and take out last week’s high which formed with relative equal highs and is a pretty clear pool of liquidity. This week’s news is of high impact with NFP on Friday.
EURGBP Analysis - Long SetupAnticipating higher prices on EG.
Looking for price to trend higher before a potential higher timeframe reversal/retracement. Will see how price forms on the lower timeframes near my entry level.
R2F
USDJPY Analysis - Short SetupAnticipating lower prices on UJ.
This is a retracement setup to go for lower prices. When prices gets to my entry area I will see how price forms on the lower timeframes for a better RR. If the formation of price structure lines up with my bias, I will enter.
Always wait for confirmation on lower timeframes.
R2F
USDCAD Analysis - Long SetupAnticipating higher prices on UC.
I will be waiting to see if price reacts at the Daily FVG below as well if it digs into the 1h/4h FVG slightly lower. There are relative equal highs above which will be a good target.
Always wait for confirmation on lower timesframes!
R2F
