AUDUSD Potential Forecast | 2nd March 2023Fundamental Backdrop
1. AUD CPI decreased from previous 8.4% to 7.4%, this shows that inflation is decreasing which could lead the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce interest rates, weakening the AUD.
2. AUD's GDP q/q decreased from 0.7% to 0.5% which shows that the economic activity and economy health are decreasing.
Technical Confluences
1. The overall bias for AUDUSD on the H4 chart is bearish .
2. Price is on a bearish trend , forming lower lows and lower highs.
3. Price could potentially retrace to the H4 resistance level at 0.678.
4. Anticipating price to retest the weekly support level at 0.662.
5. Price has already broken multiple structures to the downside.
6. Price is resting below the ichimoku cloud , signifying bearish intent.
Idea
Price has already retested the H1 resistance at 0.67800. Looking for shorts towards the 0.66400 support area.
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Innercircletrader
EURUSD potential Forecast | Tuesday 21st February 2023Hello,
I rely on ICT concepts for my trading. I would like to share a trade idea for Tuesday, February 21st, 2023.
Recap on yesterday 20th Feb Monday
There wasn't much movement yesterday due to the bank holidays for US and CAD. I'm expecting volatility to pick up for today with more major news events coming up such as the USD Flash Services PMI.
Idea
I'm expecting price to possibly head towards the overlap resistance at 1.07084, which is in line with the 50% Fibonacci ratio.
For entries, it's important to use confirmations on smaller timeframes and to always exercise caution while trading.
Thank you,
Chen Yongjin
EURUSD potential Forecast | Monday 20th February 2023Hello,
I rely on ICT concepts for my trading. I would like to share a trade idea for Monday, February 20th, 2023.
Fundamentals Recap on last week
In January, prices for food, energy, and housing in the US went up, causing inflation to rise by 0.5% and a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year. In February, the NY Fed's manufacturing survey showed some improvement. Retail sales in January beat expectations with a 3% increase and a 6.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Wholesale prices went up due to higher energy prices, suggesting inflation is still present despite a strong job market.
Idea
With price reacting strongly off the Bearish Daily OB at 1.07880, I expect price to possibly continue bearish towards the Daily OB below at 1.06044.
It's worthy to note that price might head into the 50% Discounted zone first at 1.071 before we can look for shorts.
For entries, it's important to use confirmations on smaller timeframes and to always exercise caution while trading.
Thank you,
Chen Yongjin
EURUSD Pre-CPI | Tuesday 14th February 2023Hello,
I rely on ICT concepts for my trading. I would like to share a trade idea for Tuesday, February 14th, 2023.
Idea
With price tapping into our previous area where we expected it to go, price is now within the Consequent Encroachment (CE, 50% of FVG). Expecting price to head down to possibly retest the H1 FVG for today before the US CPI release.
As marked out on the chart, I have already stated the potential take profit targets for both the good and CPI data release.
For entries, it's important to use confirmations on smaller timeframes and to always exercise caution while trading.
Thank you,
Chen Yongjin
EURUSD potential Forecast | Monday 13th February 2023Hello,
I rely on ICT concepts for my trading. I would like to share a trade idea for Monday, February 13th, 2023.
Fundamentals Recap on last week
Fed Chairman Powell's comments impact market, causing shifts in risk appetite and dollar. Market focuses on Fed's reaction to potential recession, not US entering one. Tension over possibility of Fed cutting rates weakens dollar.
Federal Reserve Bank of NY President John Williams expects interest rates to increase and policy to remain restrictive for a few years to control inflation, which may reach 2%. The interest rate has been raised by a quarter point to 4.5-4.75% and may continue to increase at the same pace depending on incoming data.
Easing inflation and a strong labor market are helping consumers feel better about the economy this month, according to a closely watched survey released Friday by the University of Michigan.
Idea
With price causing a BOS, I'm expecting price to likely retest the 1.07115 area where the H1 FVG and relative equal highs are located, indicating liquidity. To add confluence to this area, there is the 61.8% Fibonacci line within the FVG.
I then expect price to possibly move towards the 1.05902 area, where the H4 BPR is located.
For entries, it's important to use confirmations on smaller timeframes and to always exercise caution while trading.
Thank you,
Chen Yongjin
E-Book Gift + TRADABLE VS NON-TRADABLE ORDER BLOCKSABBREVIATIONS & DEFINATIONS
ORDER BLOCK
OB is a Down/Up Candle at/near Support or Resistance before the move Up/Down, respectively.
Down Candle is a Bearish Candle
Up Candle is a Bullish Candle
Bullish Order Block is Down candle at/near Support level, before the move up
Bearish Order Block is Up Candle at/near the Resistance level, before the move down
IMBALANCE
This is Insufficient Trading in the market. Sometimes called Liquidity Void .
When there is insufficient trading in the market, the price often comes back to fill out the orders
that were left.
Imbalance is created by 2-3 or more Extended Range Candles
ERC candle often closes at 80% of the candle range
Assumptions;
When the Market Maker want to move price up at a certain level, it is assumed that, there should
be enough sell orders to pair their buy orders with (this is how they make profit).
So, when the MM moves away from a given level with strength and magnitude, leaving behind a LV
(IMB), we can use this to assume that sell orders that were available at that level were not enough to pair
with their Buy Orders.
Therefore, the MM will, often, come back at this level for mitigation
MITIGATION
Mitigation means; to reduce risk.
When the MM moves price away from a level with strength and magnitude, say they are buying; it is
assumed that this is used to entice retail traders to join the move.
And because most retail traders are price chasers, they join the ride with their Stop Loses set. This is
the reason (assumed) that the MM will come back to clear retail traders SL. When their (Retail Traders)
SL are hit, they are knocked out of the move, hence MM mitigating their risk (THEY WILL RESUME
THE INITIAL TREND HENCE MOVING ALONE).
you can download that E-book from below URL
EURUSD potential Forecast | Monday 6th February 2023Hello,
I rely on ICT concepts for my trading. I would like to share a trade idea for next Monday, February 6th, 2023.
Fundamentals
The NFP data release on Friday resulted in a way better than expected result 517k expected VS 193k forecast. This resulted in the DXY strengthening greatly.
Idea
With price causing a BOS, I'm expecting price to likely move towards the 1.07135 area, where the overlap support, relative equal lows & 61.8% Fibonacci line are.
It's also worth noting that the 1.04815 area is where the next overlap support is, if price breaks the nearest support.
For entries, it's important to use confirmations on smaller timeframes and to always exercise caution while trading.
Thank you,
Chen Yongjin
GRAB potential future Forecast | Sunday 29th January 2023Hello,
I would like to share a trade idea for a potential price target for GRAB.
Idea
Price seems to have formed a retail "W" formation. Expecting price to continue bullish and head towards the market gap at 4.84, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
For entries, it's important to use confirmations on smaller timeframes and to always exercise caution while trading.
Thank you,
Chen Yongjin
EURUSD potential Forecast | Monday 30th January 2023Hello,
I rely on ICT concepts for my trading. I would like to share a trade idea for next Monday, January 30th, 2023.
Idea
With price causing a double BOS, I'm expecting price to likely move towards the 1.08260 area, where the H1 FVG & 61.8% Fibonacci line are.
It's also worth noting the 1.07826 area where the liquidity hotspot is. Price could possibly head lower towards that area.
For entries, it's important to use confirmations on smaller timeframes and to always exercise caution while trading.
Thank you,
Chen Yongjin