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3 Indian IPOs To Watch In 2022India has, in the past, been called the “next China” for possessing some of the same growth potential and investment opportunities. The truthfulness of this claim was supported recently when Chinese authorities began cracking down on its tech sector giants, prompting investors to look elsewhere for a more reliable home for their money. Coincidently, Indian tech companies are currently experiencing a boom, with Paytm (NSE: PAYTM) and Zomato (NSE: ZOMATO) going public in 2021 and producing some of the country’s largest IPOs to date. While opportunities can be found outside India’s stock exchanges, I want to explore these regulated markets and upcoming IPOs in this article. India’s stock exchanges India is home to eight stock markets with its listed companies worth a combined US $3.46 trillion. To put this into perspective, UK listed companies are worth a total of US $3.59 trillion, less than US $100 billion more than the former British colony. By 2024, Indian listed companies are projected to surpass the value of UK companies’ value and hit approximately US $5.00 trillion. Hosting these companies are the countries well-known exchanges, including the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE), and the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) 3 Indian IPOs to watch in 2022 Snapdeal IPO Snapdeal is an Indian e-commerce platform catering to the country’s growing middle class, similar to the US’s Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) or China’s Alibaba (HKG: 9988). The Company is said to be ready to file preliminary documents signalling its intent to IPO next year at a valuation of approximately US $1.50 billion. Snapdeal is currently backed by Japan’s Softbank (TYO: 9984) and China’s Alibaba Group, which are expected to continue to hold significant stakes after the Company’s IPO. Data Patterns (India) IPO Data Patterns has developed a vast array of electronic systems for the defence and aerospace sectors for the past 35 years. The Company filed to IPO with regulators in September 2021, expecting to raise ₹700 crores, or US $100 million, to help it repay debt and aid expansion. The funds will assist Data Patterns to deliver on its order book, which has grown by 40.7% over the past four years. Data Patterns is seeking a valuation of US $340 million when it goes public. However, no official date has been scheduled for its IPO. MapMyIndia IPO The digital mapping company, headquartered in Delhi, MapMyIndia, develops mapping technology used by some of the world’s largest companies. The Company has received approval (as of the last week of November) from the country’s financial authority to go public. MapMyIndia is perhaps the highest-profile Company on this list, with business relationships with US tech giants Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER), among others. MapMyIndia is seeking a valuation of US $825 million when it IPOs, which it could do before the end of the year. The Company has expressed that the funds will, in part, be used to lift its marketing, helping it compete with the likes of Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Dutch-based TomTom (AMS: TOM2).
NSE:ZOMATO
by BlackBull_Markets
is everything rainbows, roses, and unicorns for India?The great mobility of capital in India has been known for some time. In the endgame however, valuations becoming overstretched, although a mere extra, is one of the principal actors. So we must consider unicorns to be developed as as necessary step in this battlefront and it is no surprises from a timing perspective. So we have the following charts: Nifty slowly approached the 12,000 level, and when arrived it brought together all kinds of unloading, more than enough for a hearty breakfast. Once more we consulted, this time with the price at 8,500, and this picture was intended to convey how after the penetration, we should typically look for a slingshot towards the highs in a 5th wave. Here we now have the proper moment to get into contact with the corrective swing. I am looking for an August/September temporary high that could last into Q1 2022, and so we can become a bit more enterprising with the next moves. Here eyeballing a correction from current levels, 16,500, towards the 12,500 support over the coming months and quarters. This is demonstrating profit taking as the big beasts and sharks book gains for the year, and bringing your portfolio to safety rather than anything else.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by ridethepig
9
Indian Rupee - USDINR - Is it all over?I reviewed the this chart first in Sept 2020. At that time, I was looking at top to form in USD/INR. Since then, the price made wild moves but still on the looks of it, it's not clear if the top is in place. However, the most important trigger that made me think and do a detailed analysis on this is the break of this trend line. You will notice the trend line from 1980 which acted as a support in 2011, 2018 and in 2020 is now broken. After analysing the move 2008 until the all time highs, it seems that the top is place. Another way to confirm is to look at the type of pattern that is forming when the prices fell from all time highs. On the looks of it, it seems the fall is in-line with the correct pattern and doesn't violates any rule or guidelines in place. So if the analysis is correct, then what can be expected? price should fall at least to Rs. 69.5 to Rs 71.xx levels to begin with. This fall should be sharp and fast. Post that, there could be more bearish potential but it could be too early to call for it. Finally if the prices falls below Rs. 68.32 on a closing basis, then it will be confirmed that the long term top is in place and price could put Rs.62.5 I will continue to track it and see how it performs over the next few weeks. FX_IDC:USDINR
Short
by ABFX6
ridethepig | India marking a major highA flawless call in Nifty (Indian Equities) from the highs before Covid to the lows and back up in the opposing direction. We should all have made a killing on India, the pseudo-classical school always considers technical analysis as inferior, however this is not the case. As a main theme, INR buyers now choose to load for 68-66 which is the new base for 2021. The decade ahead looks positive for India and they will start playing a considerably louder position in geo-politics for the coming years. We are talking about a -8% devaluation from current levels. You can ask, what about pips? Well... pips are for pipsqueak's ... this is macro trading, rather than struggling daily this judgement carries strength in the MT and LT and ought to sound something like "watching paint dry". That is the real truth which my models have discovered about this leg lower in USDINR. You will find further considerations of the Indian macro picture in the end of year wrap up and the 2021 maps coming in the following weeks. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
4
Market Update – 25/10/20 | FCPO, Sb, Sbo Oil, FX & OtheWeekend Market Updates & Analysis 25 Oct 2020 Note: If you would like to receive this the latest updates immediately without 3 days release, please search for my site Palm Analysis. Recap 1) Let’s start the report with a review of last week’s update and market conditions. You can read last week’s report by clicking here: Weekend Market Update – 18 Oct 2020 | FCPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil, Currencies and Others FCPO i. On Point 19, 20 i and ii, 30 ii and iia, I said that both the bulls and bears have credible setup, which is classic trading range price action, and bears will likely try to push the market lower, and should the bears fail to resume their second leg down the bull will assume their case has more merits and will buy the pullback for a second leg up to retest the highs of the trading range. ii. We did see a very strong sell off on Monday, which failed the following day and bulls came back for the second leg up. Soybean iii. On Point 6 and 7, I said that Soybean is still in a tight bull channel with strong buying pressure and we will likely see another leg up to form the 3rd leg up for a wedge pattern and a final bull flag. iv. On Point 30 iii, I said that I was monitoring if we see another leg up to complete the 3rd leg of the wedge pattern to retest the 1080-1100 top of the trading range. So far we got that. Soybean Oil v. On Point 10 i, I said we will likely see bears attempt to push below the low of last week and we got that on Monday. I also said that both the bulls and the bears have credible setup, which is classic trading range price action. vi. On Point 30 iv, I said that I would be monitoring whether the sell of last week was merely just a 2 legged pullback, before the second leg up in Oct resumes and we got that. Dollar Index vii. On Point 30 i, I was monitoring if Dollar have another small leg down to create a double bottom at 93 before rallying – (if it rallies at all). viii. We got that and Dollar fell further than 93 to close at 92.767. ix. Take note that on my 4th Oct 20 report that you can read here (4 Oct Report), On Point 43 i and ii, I said “that sometimes the 3rd leg up can be very inconspicuous and may just be a 1 bar up and when that happens, the market will likely conclude that this bounce from Sept is likely just a bear rally, and will sell the bounce for a 3rd leg down to test 92 area (recent lows) and then 88-90 area.” x. So far in the DXY, instead of a 1 bar, we got a 3 bar bounce on the 13th to the 15th, and price started to sell off to the 92 area after that. What’s up ahead? Soybean Monthly 2) So far, the monthly bar is a strong bull bar trading near its high at the 1080-1100 top of the multi year trading range. i. There are 5 more trading days next week, and the bulls wants the bar to close as high as possible, while the bears wants the bar to close below the middle of the bar to reduce the bullishness. ii. Currently we are looking at 3 strong bull bars on the monthly chart, and a tight bull channel which started in May/Jun period. Soybean Weekly 3) So far on the weekly chart, the week closed as a bull bar closing near its high with a small tail above, and closed near the top of the multi year trading range of 1080-1100. i. As I said in my report last week, we are likely looking at a wedge pattern forming, and the current bar has formed the 3rd leg up by breaking above last week’s high. ii. By closing on its high, I think we are likely to see slightly higher prices next week. iii. Secondly, looking at the range of the first leg up and the second leg, I think its likely we will see at least another bar up on the weekly chart too. iii. The bulls wants to close strongly above the 1080-1100 range next week, while the bears wants the breakout to fail, and for prices to close back below the 1080-1100 range for a 2 legged pullback after a wedge pattern. Daily Soybean 4) So far on the daily chart, price is still trading in a fairly tight bull micro channel. i. The only noticeable selling pressure is the sell off at the end of Sept, and the 12 Oct 1 day pullback. Other than that, there hasn’t been much selling pressure and no strong consecutive bear bars. ii. Price traded below the low of the prior day on the 22 Oct, but found more buyers instead of sellers which was expected in such a bullish market. 5) I think we should continue to see slightly higher prices in Soybean as price moves up to complete the wedge pattern and then a pullback after that. i. We also have to look at the Dollar and other factors which we will cover below. Soybean Oil Monthly 6) So far on the monthly chart, the bulls have been able to push higher after a failed break below Sept’s low earlier in the month. i. We are approaching the final trading week of the month. The bulls wants the bar to close near the high and above the middle, while the bears on the other hand wants the price to close below the middle of the bar and as low as possible. ii. Bulls are looking for a re-test of the recent highs and multi year top of the trading range around 35.50-36 area, and close strongly above it. iii. The bears on the other hand are looking for prices to fail and close lower for the month. ii. We will have to monitor how the monthly bar closes next week. Soybean Oil Weekly 7) The weekly bar closed as a strong bull bar closing near its high with a prominent tail below which makes it likely we will see at least slightly higher prices next week. i. This week started off by the bears selling below the low of last week, which failed and traded back up to close the week strongly. ii. The bulls see the second leg up case has more merits at this point. iii. Taking a measured move up of the first leg, the bulls would probably have a target around 35.25, which is very near to the multi year top of the trading range 35.50-36 area. 8) I’m slightly more favorable to the bull’s case for a second leg up and will be monitoring if they get their target of 35.25 next week. i. While I’m slightly favoring the bull’s case, I want to also be alert to any possible failed breakout – meaning price breaks above this week’s high and then trade back lower and form a reversal bar. ii. This would then form a double top setup with the Sept high for the bears. Soybean Oil Daily 9) The bears tried to form the second leg down on Monday and failed, and prices reversed up higher. i. I think its fair to say traders will be looking if the second leg up to 35.25 form as expected. If it forms, then its within expectations. If it fails, then it says a lot about the lack of strength of the buyers. ii. With the buying pressure stronger than the selling pressure, I’m slightly more favorable to the bull’s case at this moment. Dalian Palm Olein Monthly 10) So far on the Dalian Palm Olein, the monthly chart has a moderate bull body with tails on top and below the bar. i. 5 more trading days to go next week until the monthly bar closes. ii. The bulls wants the bar to close near the high of the bar, while the bears wants the bar to close below the middle as low as possible. iii. Currently on the monthly chart, price is still trading in a tight bull channel, which is a sign of strength. We will have to see how the monthly bar closes next week. Dalian Palm Olein Weekly 11) On the weekly chart, last week closed as a big doji bar, around the same area as the week before that. i. We can see prices consolidating in a large trading range near the high of the multi year trading range between 6500 and 5700. ii. In a trading range, traders buy low and sell high, and; iii. When prices are in a trading range, traders reverse from buying to selling every few days, and credible setup tends to disappoint both the bull and bears. iv. The production for CPO is lower this month so logically, we should see higher prices for Palm Olein too. v. If we do not see this happen, this is a potential red flag for next week. Something to watch out for. Dalian Palm Olein Daily 12) On the daily chart, after the strong move up, price seems to be forming a triangle pattern since the sell off at the end of Sept. i. Last week, the bears attempted to resume the second leg lower on Monday and failed, and price has since reversed up. ii. Traders now expect to see the second leg up from the 30 Sept to 15 Oct first leg form. iii. If it forms and re-test close to the recent highs fo 6500, then it is within expectations, but; iv. If it fails to form, that would tell us a lot about the lack of strength of the buyers. FCPO Monthly 13) So far the monthly bar had a bull body which followed a failed breakout below Sept’s low with a tail above. i. There are only 4 more trading days in the month due to the Birthday of Prophet Muhammad holiday next week. ii. The bulls wants the monthly bar to close near the highs, while the bears wants the monthly bar to close below the middle of the bar. 14) So far, prices has been in a 2 month’s trading range between 3100-2680, consolidating near the highs of the multi year trading range. i. In trading ranges, traders sell the highs and buy the lows. ii. So I will be monitoring if we see selling come in again as we approach the highs closer to 3100. Weekly FCPO 14) The weekly bar closed as a bull bar near the highs with a prominent tail below. i. The bears attempted to resume the second leg lower on Monday and failed and prices reversed up. ii. Currently, it looks like the bull’s case for a second leg up to a measured move around 3100 has slightly more merit. iii. If price reach there, buyers will then want price to break above the top of the multi year trading range of 3150-3200. iv. The bears on the other hand wants prices to fail near the top of the trading range for a Double Top with retest with the Sept highs. 15) With last week’s failed bear breakdown, and this week closing near the highs, we should see slightly higher prices next week. i. I see a potential measured move to re-test the Sept highs around 3080-3100 on the weekly chart and will be monitoring if we get this next week. Daily FCPO 16) On the daily chart, after the failed breakdown on Monday, we are now looking at the second leg up from the Oct 5 to Oct 13 first leg up forming. i. This current leg up is more choppy with more overlapping bars as compared with the first leg. That tells me that the conviction of the bulls are maybe not as strong as the first leg. ii. I see a minor second measured move up within the second leg with a target around 3050. iii. Take note that the first leg high stopped around 3020, and the weekly measured move up is around 3080-3100. iv. With so much measured target above, and prices trading near multi year trading range highs, I will be monitoring if we start to meet into some headwinds for prices. Just something to watch out for, especially if Dollar starts to strengthen next week. Other issues effecting Palm Oil 17) i. Production should be coming in lower for the month between 5% – 10% for the whole of Malaysia ii. Exports so far looks not bad. Even if it is slightly higher or lower than Sept, you have to remember Sept was up 12-13% against Aug. iii. So far no rain and no floods. iv. News in the media talked about emergency measure by the Govt, but I expect palm industry to operate as per normal except Sabah side. Let’s look at the currencies. Dollar Index – DXY 18) So far for the Dollar Index, price traded lower as I suspected it would, and broke below the 93 level. i. So far, I still do not see it as super bearish, but probably a 2 legged pullback from the Sept 2 legged up move. ii. What this means is that, we might still see a few more days lower for Dollar next week, but I will be monitoring if this 92-91.50 area holds. iii. If it does, and price start reversing up after testing lower for a few more days, this is bad news for commodities like SB/SBO/Palm. iv. What if 92-91.50 area fail to hold and prices continue to break down lower to 88-89 area? Then this would be supportive for SB/SBO/Palm prices. USD/Chinese Yuan 19) The RMB strengthened against the Dollar earlier in the week and gave back most of it gains. i. I would prefer to see the RMB continue to strengthen against the USD, but things are looking a bit overdone. ii. I would be monitoring if we have a weakening of the RMB against the USD next week as this would not be good for commodities prices. Indian Rupee/USD 20) The Indian Rupee also weakened against the USD last week and that’s not so favorable for palm purchase. i. The INR weakened against the USD by 0.8% for the week. Luckily, MYR also weakened against the USD by 0.48% which offsets the weakness in INR by half. ii. I would prefer to see a stronger INR against the USD and if this trend of weakening continues, it would be concerning to me. USD/MYR 21) As I have said above, it was good that MYR also weakened slightly against the USD, which offsets the weaker Indian Rupee. i. As an exporter nation, we want our buyers (Importing nations – China, India, Europe, Others) to have stronger currencies against a weaker local currency (MYR) ii. If the our importing nation’s currency weakens, preferably, I would like to see ours weaken as much or more to offsets the price differentials. iii. Otherwise, if the differentials grow too large, it might have an adverse effect on commodities purchases. Other Factors to look at: Crude Oil 22) Crude Oil traded lower last week. i. In my past reports, I have said that I would have preferred to see higher crude oil prices as it reflects the health of the global economy. ii. Higher crude oil prices indicate more cars on the road, more flying and more energy usage by industry for production. iii. With the increasing Covid cases especially in the USA and Europe, this is starting to dampen the prices of crude oil as the expected demand drops due to lock downs and restrictions to business activities. iv. If crude continues to trend lower, this would be a worrying trend for overall economic activities. Other, Other Factors to look at: Covid-19 23) USA just recorded a record amount of daily cases, almost 90k per day. i. Remember we had a state election in Sabah and cases went haywire in Malaysia? ii. Well, USA will be having a national election on the 3rd of Nov, and early election already in the process. I highly suspect this is going to drive up cases going into the fall/winter months – in line with what the experts have been warning us about. iii. Cases in France, Spain and other EU countries are also ticking up with potential lock down in the UK. iv. If cases continue to spike at an accelerating pace, we may see countries resort back to drastic measures like lock down once again and when that happens, it may also effect demand for Palm. v. Can you imagine USA daily cases spike to 200k cases a day or more? Even if Biden wins, we might see a few weeks of lock down just for them to flatten the curve. vi. Just something to watch out for. USA Elections 24) I think we should also keep in mind of the USA election on the 3 Nov. i. We may see a large move by the Dollar due to the election. ii. If the Dollar spikes lower due to more stimulus expectation, then that’s fine, as that is supportive for commodities prices. iii. But Dollar also has a tendency to strengthen like it did after Donald Trump won in 2016. That would be bad for commodities prices. 25) Why is this important? i. Because we do not know how traders globally are positioning or whether they are hedging their positions. ii. Would traders de-leverage and reduce their long positions in commodities prior to the election? or; iii. Would they just hedge it? iv. I honestly don’t know. But it is something we need to be aware off and to monitor if players in the industry start de-leveraging and reduce their positions ahead of the election less than 10 days from now. Summary 26) I have covered a lot above, I suggest you to go through each of the section of the different products to get a better picture of what I am looking at because I’m afraid this summary may not do it justice or provide you with the clarity of my thoughts. i. Soybean – I expect slightly higher prices for Soybean and will be monitoring if we get it. ii. Soybean Oil – I am slightly favoring the bull’s case, but I also want to be alert to any potential failed break up or failed measured move up in SBO next week. iii. FCPO – with production still tight, and rival commodities still strong, I also expect slightly higher prices next week to around 3020-3080-3100 area. Should we get there, good – within expectations. If we failed to get there? I would start to be careful because that means the sellers are potentially coming out to sell near the highs of the multi year trading near 3100. iiia. If we do get to the measured target above, traders will then be looking if market can spike even higher, maybe towards the 3150-3200. I will take it 1 step at a time. Reach the targets first, then look at how the currencies are behaving and how the rival commodities are doing. iv. Dollar (DXY) – the USD look weak, but it could potentially only be a 2 legged pull back only. That means, we might still see a few more days of down move. After that, I will be monitoring closely if we suddenly have a strong reversal up in DXY – if this happens, this is bad for commodities prices. v. RMB – The Chinese Yuan continue to strengthen against the USD, but I feel like it is a bit overdone. I will be monitoring if there is a bounce there and RMB weaken slightly against the USD. If this happens, we might see some pullback in commodities prices especially the Soybean, Corn, Wheat products. vi. INR – The Indian Rupee weakened against the USD, which is offset slightly by a weakening MYR/USD too. I would prefer to see a stronger INR. I will be monitoring accordingly. vii. Important note – should prices move higher within expectation, I would want to be on the lookout for sudden strengthening of the Dollar which might cause prices to fall. So far that’s all to this week’s report. If there are any major changes, I will update again accordingly. Till next week. Best Regards and trade safe. Tech Trader
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
Weekend Update – 18 Oct 20 | FCPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil, FXWeekend Market Update – 18 Oct 2020 | FCPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil, Currencies and Others Take note that the updates here are 2 days late. If you would like the latest updates, please visit palmanalysis dot com Review Let’s start the report with a review of the past 2 weeks. 1) In my last update on the 4th Oct, I expected: On Soybean i. On Point 13 ii, I favored slightly higher Soybean prices due to the relative strength, and we did see higher prices in the 3rd week of Oct, and prices had a pullback last week. On Soybean Oil ii. On Point 46 ii, for Soybean oil to complete its second leg down and if the support at 31-29 holds and to see the strength in the subsequent bounce iia. Price found support at 31.50 and had a good bounce. It then had a slight pullback last week. On FCPO iii. On Point 46 iii, To see FCPO 2 legged pullback to 2800-2650-00, and then a re-test higher, and would want to see if the re-test of the highs is strong or weak . iiia. Price found support at 2690, and the first leg of the re-test was quite strong going back up to 3000 by the 12/13th of Oct. It has pulled back slightly since then. On RMB and INR iv. On Point 46 iv, I want to see RMB and INR strengthen – We have that in RMB but INR is Flat On Dollar Index v. I expected the Dollar Index to find support around 93-93.50 – Price found support at 93 and had a bounce last week. You can refer to the Weekend Updates – 4 Oct 2020 | CPO, Soybean, Soybean Oil & Currencies here. What’s up ahead? Soybean Monthly 2) In my last update On Point 6, I said that price would attempt to break above the highs of Sept and test the top of the trading range around 1080-1100. i. Price tested very close with a high in Oct at 1079. Price has pulled back since and price is currently trading in the middle of the month’s range with another half a month to go. 3. i. Bears wants price to close below the middle of the month or as low as possible and to have a candle with a bear body. ii. Bull on the other hand wants a strong retest of the 1080-1100 top of the multiyear trading range and break strongly above it to test the highs of 2016 around 1170-1200. Let’s look at the weekly chart. Soybean Weekly 4) So far prices is still in a tight bull channel which is strength in the buyers. i. It looks to me that we are forming a spike and channel bull trend, and in the process of forming a wedge push up – with second Oct week push being the second push up in the wedge. ii. If this is true, we could see another push up in the next 1-2 weeks – the bulls wants a strong close above the 1080 top of the multiyear trading range; iii. The bears on the other hand wants price to fail at the top of the trading range and reverse down instead. iv. The current bar is a bear bar but with a big tail below, which is a weak sell signal bar. If price trade below last week’s low, we may see more buyers than sellers below. 5) I do feel the overall global picture is a bit murky at this moment due the the following factors i. If we have dollar start strengthening in the next 1-2 weeks, it is generally bad for equities and commodities. ii. However we have to take note that in Sept, the Dollar strengthened and equities fell, but Soybean bucked the trend and went up instead, which is showing relative strength. The story behind the up move was strong demand from China. iii. So we have to monitor whether a) Dollar continue to strengthen or weaken (weaken is good for commodities like Soybean/ Soybean Oil / Palm) or Strengthen, and b) if strengthen, will Soybean follow into weakness or buck the trend yet again like Sept? 6) For now, as price is still in a tight bull channel, I suspect we may see a little bit more pull back, and then a 3rd leg up to form for the wedge pattern. Daily Soybean 7) On the Daily chart, we see price consolidating in a small sideways trading range between 1030-1080 in the last 1 and half week. i. This potentially sets up a final bull flag – which if true, means there should be another small sideways to up leg from here. 8) We do see some bear bar, but no significant selling pressure as there were no consecutive bear bears since Oct started. i. We will have to monitor on this point to see if selling pressure develops next week. Soybean Oil Monthly 9) So far Oct is the first pullback following a 5 month micro bull channel. The monthly chart so far is a doji bar which means the bulls and bears are currently in balance around these prices. i. Notice last month was also a doji bar which means balance around these prices of 32.70-33.30 range. ii. The bulls wants the monthly bar to close above the middle of the bar, as high as possible, while the bear on the other hand wants prices to close below the middle of the bar and as low as possible. iii. With 2 more weeks to go, the bars can look very different by the end of the month. Soybean Oil Weekly 10. Last week closed as a bear bar, which is a sell signal bar for the bears. i. I think it is fair to say we will see bears attempt to push prices below the low of last week to attempt the second leg down for Soybean Oil which started in Sept. Will they succeed? We have to look at a few other factors such as: ia. The Dollar 1b. How strong soybean is holding up ii. If the bears get their way, we may see SBO test back the 31.50. iii. The bulls on the other hand wants to see the breakout below last week’s low to fail, and then reverse up for a second leg up which started in the second week of Oct. Soybean Oil Daily 11) So far on the daily chart, it looks to me that the whole of last week was a 2 legged pullback against the stronger 2 legged bull leg which started in Oct 5 to Oct 9. i. Price is currently consolidating around the 20ema area, which is the average price traders are looking at. Notice that the bounce during the end of Sept also tested this area of 33. 12) Both the bulls and bears look like they each have credible setup. i. The bears have a double top second leg down sell setup, while; ii. The bulls have a second leg up from the Oct 5-9 bull leg. iii. With credible setup for both the bulls and bears, this is classic indication for trading range price action. Neither the bulls nor the bears have a strong edge at the moment. iv. We will have to look at other factors to give us slightly more information which we will cover below. Dalian Palm Olein Monthly 13) On the Dalian Palm Olein Chart, so far the monthly chart, price is trading near the lows after gaping up after the long holiday break. i. Price has a prominent tail above, which also indicates profit taking towards the higher prices traded. Notice last month also had a prominent tail above. It indicates that prices are finding sellers near the high of the multiyear trading range. ii. With 2 weeks to go, the monthly chart could still look very different from now. iii. The bears wants price to trade lower and for prices to close with a bear body and a big tail above. That would setup a strong sell for Nov. iv. Then bulls on the other hand wants the trend which started in May to continue as price is still trading in a bull micro channel. Let’s look at the weekly chart. Dalian Palm Olein Weekly 14) Last week closed as a doji looking bar with a small bear body with prominent tails above and below the bar. i. So far, the bull channel is quite tight, but prices are trading near the top of the multi year trading range. ii. Price is currently trading near in the middle of the 4-5 weeks sideways trading range which is a sign of balance. iii. When prices are in a trading range, traders reverse from buying to selling every few days, and credible setup tends to disappoint both the bull and bears. Not much clarity on the weekly chart too. Let’s see what’s up on the Daily Chart. Dalian Palm Olein Daily 15) On the daily chart, last Friday traded lower, then back up and closed the day with a prominent tail below. i. The bulls will be asking if this is the pullback from the Oct leg up, which will be followed by another leg up? ii. While the bears on the other hand are asking if this is the continuation down for the second leg which started at 22 Sept? 16) I think we need another few more days price action to have more clarity on this. i. Should price trade back up from here, traders will assume that the sell off from last week was simply a pullback which will be followed with a second leg up. ii. If price continue to trade lower, then traders will assume that the second leg down from the Sept sell off is resuming. 17) With both a credible buy and sell setup, this is classic trading range price action – the price action disappoint the bulls and bears every few days. i. I am slightly more leaning towards the bullish case due to the lower palm production this month. Not much clarity here either. Let’s look at FCPO below. FCPO Monthly 18) So far on the monthly chart, Oct traded below the low of Sept early in the month and found buyers there. i. Price is still trading above its middle of the bar, and has a bull body with a tail above. Currently price still slightly favors the bulls. ii. With 2 more weeks to go, the bar could look very different by the end of the month. iii. Price still remained in a tight bull channel for now which is a sign of strength for the buyers. Weekly FCPO 19) Price closed this week as a bear bar, which is a sell signal bar for next week. i. The bears are looking at last week’s bear bar as the sell signal bar for a second leg down from a double top with Sept’s high. ii. The bulls on the other hand sees last week’s pullback as the pullback for a second leg up. iii. Both the bulls and the bears have a credible setup, which is classic trading range price action. Daily FCPO 20) Price closed as a small bull bar with a prominent tail above. i. The bears see the 15 Oct sell of as the start of the second leg down from the end of Sept sell off. Another few more day’s price action should give us the clarity we need to see if this second leg fails. ii. The bulls on the other hand sees last week’s sell of as the pullback from the strong Oct 5 to Oct 12 leg up, and should the bears fail to resume their second leg down next week, the bull will assume their case has more merits and will buy the pullback for a second leg up to retest the highs of the trading range. Other issues effecting Palm Oil. 21 i. Production trend looks like it is heading lower this month between the range of -5% to -10% or more. This is a bullish factor for the bulls. ii. Exports for the first 15 days shows slightly down -2% to -3% against Sept, but you have to remember, Sept was up 12-13% against Aug. This means, the exports for Oct is not that bad if compared to Aug levels, just slightly lower than last month. iii. So far, no significant rain nor flood effecting palm. Let’s look at the currencies. Dollar Index – DXY 22) So far the Dollar continued its pullback to 93-93.50 as we have expected. It then bounce last week, trading slightly above 93.50. i. As I have said previously, a strong dollar is bad for commodities such as SB, SBO, Palm. ii. Price is currently trading at the bear trend line and I will be monitoring if there is another leg down to test 93 again, before we have a big strong bounce up to 95-96 area, or, iii. If prices continue to trade up from here. Remember, a strong Dollar is bad for SB, SBO, Palm. 23) In my last update on Point 47) I wrote that – is it possible where we see the Dollar Index strengthen but Palm prices still holds and not drop much? Answer is yes, its possible. Why? i. What if production levels drops off significantly? This is good for bulls. ii. What if it starts to rain at any moment, we see severe flooding in ffb production states and disrupts harvest? This is good for bulls. (though there are no signs of this right now) iii. What if exports figures are good? This is good for bulls. (So far exports are slightly lower than Sept, but still much higher than Aug) iv. What if the Dollar index strengthen against other currencies, but remains weak against RMB and INR? This is also good for SB/SBO/Palm. iv. So a strengthening Dollar Index does not necessarily equals lower Palm Prices. We need to see it in relation to the RMB, INR, local productions, demand and related factors. So I will be monitoring the Dollar in conjunction with Point 23 above. USD/Chinese Yuan 24) Happy note for Chinese Soybean buyers. The RMB continues to strengthen against the Dollar. This is supportive for Soybean purchases. i. I would like to see the RMB continue to strengthen or at least stays flat and not weaken against the USD. Indian Rupee/USD 25) The Indian rupee mostly traded sideways – flat. i. I would like to see an INR that is strengthening or at least flat and not weakening against the USD. USD/MYR 26) The Ringgit was mostly flat in the month of Oct, it strengthened very slightly. i. I would like to see a Ringgit that is weakening or at least stays flat against the Dollar. ii. If the Ringgit is strengthening against the Dollar, then I would like to see the RMB & INR also strengthening as much or more relatively. Other Factors to look at: Crude Oil 27) In my last update, I said that I would like to see Crude start ticking higher after testing support around 36 – 34 area. i. Price held around the 36.60 area and didn’t trade lower and bounce from there. ii. Price is trading around the 41 area which is the high of the recent trading range area. iii. Price attempted to sell off 2 times on last Thurs and Friday, but reversed back up, with large prominent tail below. 28) I would like to see crude continue to trade higher as it indicates a stronger overall world economic conditions – more cars on the road, more flying, more energy usage for economic output. A weaker crude oil is generally not supportive for commodities prices such as SBO and Palm. Other, Other Factors to look at: 28) There is a presidential election in the USA in the 3rd Nov. i. We have to keep this date in mind because it could move the Dollar in either direction which will effect commodities prices. 28a. On Covid Cases. i. The western world in heading into the fall/winter months which experts believe Covid cases will increase due to people spending more time indoors. ii. We are already seeing spikes in cases in France, Spain and other countries. iii. Remember we had a state election in Sabah, and cases in Malaysia just boomed? iv. Well, the USA election is on the 3rd Nov. What if it happened like Sabah, and the election in USA caused cases to spike uncontrollably to 100k to 200k or more daily cases? Something to watch out for. Summary 29) So far from the charts, this week, prices are much more murky and unclear than previous few weeks. i. There are credible buy and sell setup for the bulls and bears, with each not having a large edge against the other. ii. This is classic trading range price action – in trading range, people sell high, and buy low of the trading ranges. iii. The currencies offer slightly better picture because RMB is strengthening against the USD, and we will monitor if this will support SB prices next week. iiia. We have to also monitor if RMB can continue to maintain these levels or if it weakens back against the USD. A weakening RMB I think will not be supportive of Soybean Prices. iv. Not much to see from Indian Rupee as it has been trading Flat against the USD – just slightly higher v. Ringgit strengthen slightly against the USD also – I prefer to see a weaker Ringgit in the next 1-2 weeks. 30) What I am monitoring: i. If Dollar have another small leg down to create a double bottom at 93 before rallying – (if it rallies at all) ii. FCPO – Whether the selling price action from last week was merely just a pullback before a second leg up. iia. With production being so tight, there is a chance of this happening – even against a strengthening dollar. iii. Soybean – If we see another leg up to complete the 3rd leg of the wedge pattern to retest the 1080-1100 top of the trading range. iv. Soybean Oil – whether the sell of last week was merely just a 2 legged pullback, before the second leg up in Oct resumes. We should have more clarity with a few more day’s price action. I am slightly leaning towards the bulls case for a small sideways to up move in the next 1-2 weeks. With more information, I may change this stance and will update accordingly. From the above, it should more or less give you some context to the current state of the market conditions. Should there be no major changes from my analysis above, I will update again next weekend. Trade safe, and I welcome any feedback from you. Best Regards, Tech Trader
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
ridethepig | The Revolutionary IdeasA good time to update the chart in Indian Equities (NIFTY) for those following the EM story... If you take a closer look at the below diagram " Top is in for the year.. " you will see that it is above all directed against an arithmetic conception of the 5 wave sequence from the cycle lows. What is crucial is simply the greater or lesser degree of mobility which the Indian currency has possessed from both the monetary and fiscal side; if intervention occurs from the CB it is going to mark the end of the weakness for India, and unlock a new chapter for the next generation! What it boils down to is always the "intrinsic value" of the local economy (deriving from the global skeleton present) which is a cumulative count of productivity, confidence and similar matters of form. There is a strategy which every hypermodern investor should take note of. I mean the continuity of the advance from 8542 support. Once the support began holding, then and only then may we consider the mass as more attractive because only then have the elements been mobilised. The previous swing did not fail to excite lively interest, since the previous update the INR weakness is now starting to show signs of exhaustion and should be treated with extreme caution. In spite of fine play, the INR is protected at the highs and is giving Shaktikanta Das a free hand to play monetary policy on the retrace. How can India mess this up? ... An elegant breakup in Indian Equities over the coming years does not seem too fancy! As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ridethepig