EURUSD formed an inside bar - Breakout in the making?After rallying strong on last Friday's NFP print, EURUSD has remained flat on Monday/Tuesday, forming an inside bar at the top end of the rally. A breakout is therefore likely to set the direction in the near term.
To the upside , 1.140 is the key level to watch, a break higher could extend gains above 1.140 but keep prices range bound below 1.15.
To the downside , 1.130 is the key level to watch out for which could see EURUSD slide towards 1.120 and to 1.10.
For you Fib fans, 1.1418 remains the 61.8% retracement level of the previous decline from 03/05 highs of 1.16163 and 30/05 lows of 1.10978.
Inside Bar
USDJPY INSIDE DAY CANDLES: WATCH THE HIGHS AND LOWSHi all, please see this chart first, and press the "load new bars"/play button and see how it played out:
I recently took notice of such formations and have come to appreciate its usefulness.
RATIONALE:
When a pair trends in a certain direction, and such a formation forms, it usually indicates indecisiveness/loss in momentum of the prevailing trend,
because the candle's highs and lows (note: not closing price!) forms WITHIN the highs and lows of the previous candle.
What happens next is traders will watch price action closely to re-determine the sentiment of the market, by watching if price breaks above/below the larger range (previous) candle.
A break of the larger (previous) candle's range will likely see price spike in that direction at around 50pips or more, depending on the buildup of stops/orders.
In such a scenario:
Do note that prices tend to draw back after such price spikes because these are usually quick moves where may stops/orders are placed.
However, after some consolidation, if prices do not withdraw and close back into the high/low range, it usually indicates a continuation prevailing direction.
See an example of how it played out on this chart on 22-24th Dec 2015, and 4-5th Jan 2016
Recently, we have been seeing alot of such formations on the UJ daily due to heightened volatility and drastic moves.
Today, another inside day candle might be underway in formation.
UJ traders should watch the high (117.685) and low (115.973) closely in the subsequent days.
Currently, I remain bearish for UJ, but like I have mentioned in my weekly outlook analysis, do watch out for BOJ surprises (eg. additional easing etc.) that may change sentiment.
Godspeed
Short term short trade on EUR/GBPUsing divergence , Stochastic bearish this time, a temporary short position has lined up on the 4 hour time frame on EUR/GBP. Price has given an inside bar below resistance and the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level . Targets may be placed at previous support where price could go to.
Short-term Long trade on S&P500A short term long trade/counter trend trade on the 4 hour time frame taking cue from Stochastic bullish divergence and an inside bar at support and price hitting the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level. A possible pull back into previous resistance is likely where profits may be collected.
Long Coffee FuturesCoffee has been ranging between ~106 and 127. Price touched the bottom of the range and today's activity closed as an inside bar/candle indicating indecision, hence the potential to take a long position and reach for the top of the range.
entry - above high of inside bar
stop loss - below low of mother bar
target - top of the range at ~127