220424 BTCUSD Analysis (Monthly candle,Smart money,Harmonic)
30min: You can see the back to back mitigation move at the supply zone.
1M: Harmonic extreme 3.618 extension shows that the price is highly overbought.
Price seemed to bounce at the liquiduity area, but it couldn't to go further only to fail at 1.13 extension area with the clear divergence.
30k~12K is an area whre inefficiency has occured, so the price is likely to go downward to fill the gap.
Thanks.
Institution
#BTCUPDATE - 30.7.21 LITERALLY NO SURPRISE
As I have been warning for the past few days BTC has been throwing up bearish flags everywhere.
We are straight down to first support - which is quite a strong one of the 200 DEMA although I think a small bounce here and the US online will sell and push down quite steeply. It should be an interesting weekend.
If we lose this support at $38.5k then next stop imo is $36.3k.
Benefits here are that we needed a correction after a heavy pump - and it is setting up nicely for an ultra bullish August. When ETH London Hardfork & German Institutions come online.
My play is to target $36.8k from here and then see if it holds - if not then look to $34k. In the same breath start accumulating/DCA'ing BTC on the way down now as the come back pump is gonna be REAL!!!!
#BTC #Bitcoin AnalysisSince the beginning of the year, we have seen Bitcoin far exceed the resistance of $ 30,000, something that was unlikely. Over the past few weeks several resistances have been broken, and following the same path, the same has happened in this one. This is due to the entry of different institutions taking advantage of the low volume and volatility of the weekends.
Analyzing the CME futures chart for Bitcoin, GAPs do not stop happening, in the image it is shown, the largest being the one that is being created now. Tomorrow's Monday opening will mark the final value for this GAP.
In addition, in all the charts analyzed with candles of 1H, 4H, 1D and 1W, Bitcoin is overbought. For the 1-week chart that we have been following in the channel for a long time, a break has been made at a major resistance point near $ 33,000. This break has yet to be confirmed, but we see likely that Bitcoin added to all factors may laterize at this point (as we see in 1H candles) showing great indeterminacy, with a rejection at the $ 30,000 support zone, pushing the price back.
The future of Bitcoin looks bullish on the price action, but the indicators mark an imminent correction. Do not rush to open your operations. Mark the probability of your addresses at the entrance and do not follow them, do not rush to drag the loss, with large movements in Bitcoin you must always stay safe, be smart and control your risk.
Psychological Levels are Easy Market's to Trade! (+400 pips)It's pretty straight forward here, with a 3rd rejection imminent of a key level and psychological level (1), we can use this to our advantage by placing a sell-limit at the rejected daily price of 1 with tight stops. Using this technique may result in being stop hunted (as you see the second test spiked a 4th time), however the 3rd drive into the key level statistically negates his probability severely, making the risk worth the reward. As you can see, the RR in this REAL trade I took was unreal. It was nonetheless, a great example of how to play around with key levels especially concerning the historical significance of this kley level for USD/CHF which will require you to do some backtesting to see (the relevance of 1's backtesting played a factor into my confidence factor while executing). Support and resistance levels are one of the most important technical factors in trading. “Key levels” are certain prices for a currency pair which may support the price below the current market level or a price which may resist above the current market level. Support acts as a floor and resistance acts as a ceiling, both of which are “barriers of price.”
Send me a PM for questions, or comment below. I'm happy to help those that are eager to learn how easy this market is to trade if you can see it in a certain detail.
AUD/USD LONG - HIGH PROBABILITY SETUPAUD/USD is at a monthly demand zone, there are numerous traps enticing retail traders to short. E.g. bouncing off the weekly trend line, and a so called area of resistance on the daily.
COT data also shows banks are becoming slightly bullish and reducing short positions.
A-la-la-la-le-LONG,
ah-long-long-le-long-long-LONG!
Don't short basically.
Ps. Trade prediction is not an entry yet, certain requirements still need to be met.
LIVE STOP HUNTINGThis could potentially turn into a stop hunt. As we see price created the illusion it was bouncing off support (see the blue arrow), and has now returned and broken below. 95% of retail traders are told to buy at support and sell at resistance.Guess where they are also told to place their stops? Right at the dollar sign. Liquidity the banks need to fill their enormous order. The cycle repeats and 95% of traders continue to fail.
Smart Money Strong Bulls, Strong BearsStrong Bulls are always looking to buy. Strong Bears are always looking to sell. Weak Bulls and Weak Bears are usually indecisive and wait until its too late, entering at the worst possible time. In general, Strong Bulls sell to Weak Bears, and Strong Bears buy from Weak Bulls. When both Strong Bulls and Strong Bears sell (strong bulls to take profits, and strong bears to initiate shorts), there is only one direction for the market to go. This is when leads to strong moves in the markets.
When prices are in a strong bull trend Strong Bulls buy at any price, including a high price. This strong trend can be in the form of a spike or a tight bull channel . The Strong Bulls are aware prices are in a strong trend, and therefore are willing to buy high. This buying prevents a pullback and instead prices continue to rally. Strong bears see this and are not willing to sell yet, and so the lack of selling pressure creates a vacuum and also prevents a pullback. The same is true for Strong Bears in a strong bear trend.
When prices are in a weaker bull trend, such as a broad bull channel , bulls who buy high tend to get trapped and are either forced to exit and buy lower, or scale into their position at a lower price. This is also refereed to as "averaging in to a position." When strong bulls see that bulls who buy high are getting trapped, they will only look to buy at a discount, or a pullback and will sell to take profits when prices reach near the highs. This is what feeds the bull channel , which is a form of a slanted trading range. When prices are in a trading range, both Strong Bulls and Strong Bears will only look to buy low and sell high. Most will also scale into their position if prices go against them, and they tend to take smaller profits like 1X risk.
What about Weak Bulls and Weak Bears? Weak bulls and Weak bears tend to flip flop in their positions. In other words, they see a bear leg and assume prices are going lower and sell low in the bear leg, just before a rally begins. This is most obvious when prices are in some form of trading range or weak channel where there is heavy two sided trading.
Weak bulls also buy high in a bull channel , or high in a trading range. They buy from strong bears who are selling high prices. They are then forced to exit or scale in, and contribute to the selling if they exit. Then when prices are near the bottom of the channel, they become convinced the market is now selling off, and sell low. This repeats over and over as they hope for a breakout and fail to realize what is occurring.
A major key in learning to become a profitable trader is the ability to understand what the institutions (strong bulls and strong bears) are doing at any given time. This is how you follow "smart money." If you do not understand what prices are telling you; you are more likely to act as a Weak Bull and Weak Bear, and contribute to the market.
To learn more about how to understand institutions and price tendencies, see below.
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Educational Piece: How To Find Tops And Bottoms w/ NO IndicatorsA While back I did a post on EURUSD Showing probability of the big move down we’ve seen.
Here is the Link: www.tradingview.com
About 3/4 of the page down I posted another chart with support levels. I received a few questions where I could tell other traders were looking to buy at the first major support levels.
I asked this Question: IF Price does start to Rally…How will you know if it’s a good time to buy? And How would you know if it’s a short lived rally giving you a good place to short at better price Levels.
I went in to detail on what patterns to look for based on Institutional Order Flow. You can read my answers near the bottom of that page.
I posted this chart for TWO Reasons:
#1 it’s Soy Bean Oil so it’s easier to just observe theh chart without having a Biased Opinion since very few people on TradingView trade this instrument.
#2 ***This chart shows perfectly two examples I discussed on a How to know it’s a good time to Buy, and the second example shows how you would know it’s a False Rally giving you a better Price to Add to Shorting the symbol.
***Draw the Major Support and Resistance levels I discussed and showed on a chart 3/4 of the way down on the link at the top of this page.
***This Chart looks VERY Similar to the EURUSD I posted in that link.
*******One of the best Quotes I’ve ever heard that Dramatically impacted my Trading is this, “When your Looking at a Chart ask yourself this, What would have to Happen for the MOST Retail Traders to Get HURT”!
When you get good at answering that question…And when you get good at recognizing Institutional Buying and Selling Accumulation, and Institutional Stop runs. You will be able to trade any chart with a HIGH Probability of Success…WITH NO Indicators!!!!
Institutions MOVE Markets…PERIOD. By evaluating Institutional Price Action along with Major Support and Resistance levels. (Without a BIASED Opinion of what You Think Price Will Do)…You’ll be able to “Print Money” out of the market.