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Bitcoin Mid- to Long-term analysis + Short-term bearish swing.Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) has been one of the trickiest assets to forecast, until institutions hopped on, and now it's THE trickiest asset to forecast. So I will give my take on it and the factors I'm considering for my mid to long term analysis. I also give a short-term forecast. But since that can change very quickly, keep following this idea for updates. I would like to thank my followers. In less than a month, I went from 4 to 50 followers, and I hope I can provide you quality analysis and discussions. Thanks to all of you. First I will point out that I am bullish on Bitcoin long-term. I believe it can easily touch $200k during this year. I am, however, expecting a correction of about 50% to 60% from the all-time-high in the short-term. Just the usual Bitcoin behaviour, nothing big. The chart shows a possible scenario that looks neat on my chart. Bitcoin, however, has its own way of looking neat. The path I drew is too long to be accurate, so don't take it as a strict guide, but rather to help you identify points of support and reversal. Now let's get to the analysis. One new factor that was absent from the Bitcoin space is institutions, government and regulatory bodies that have recently joined in on the action. Paypal, Square and others are buying big amounts of Bitcoin. The SEC just started prosecuting Ripple, finally! And Tether keeps creating virtual currency, perhaps trying to compete with the Federal Reserve. Anyway, let's dive into each of these: Paypal: Paypal started selling Bitcoin in Oct 2020 to customers in the US. And they are planning to expand internationally soon. Paypal does not allow withdrawal of Bitcoin from their system. You can only buy, keep it there, and sell. Paypal will keep buying Bitcoin as long as they are anticipating demand from their customers. Similarly, they will sell their Bitcoin when customers are selling. They are not interested in taking a position in Bitcoin, neither short nor long. Paypal have to buy and sell over the counter (OTC), and probably in large chunks. That activity does not reflect on the open markets except after a delay. That is called delayed price discovery. Suppose that Paypal bought a large chunk. Then, open markets would suddenly discover after a while that that large chunk of Bitcoin has been removed from circulation. This leads to a sudden spike in price. Likewise, when Paypal sells, some while later, a big sudden plunge occurs. That is how delayed price discovery causes volatility. This demand from customers can be hard to anticipate and can go out of control, especially after Paypal expands its Bitcoin offering internationally. This mean that Paypal will find themselves forced to take a position in Bitcoin. They will have to bet on one direction or the other. Paypal would certainly not like volatility in their balance sheets. They could choose to suspend the service at any time which will create more volatility. They could choose to convert customers' balances from bitcoins to USD at any time and either keep the bitcoin for themselves or sell all of it, creating a huge move in the market, depending on their decision. Keeping it might not necessarily mean it goes up. In short: Paypal will create volatility in Bitcoin , as if that's what we've been missing! Regulation: Almost all Bitcoin gateways are asking for KYC, even individual sellers do, and they even proof of ownership of the Bitcoin wallet. Coinbase already blew any hope of protecting your privacy. They would simply give away information to government whenever requested. It's becoming harder and harder to keep your ownership of Bitcoin private. Paypal not allowing Bitcoin withdrawals is also regulation, and I suspect that it either stems out of Paypal trying to adhere to existing government policy or it is a smart move by Paypal to attract government cooperation and support. The reason I say this is.. imagine this: People can now buy Bitcoin. They can fulfil their curiosity, their investment desires, but at the same time, they cannot withdraw Bitcoins out of the Paypal system. This means that control is in the hands of Paypal. The government would love that. Everything is monitored. No more threats of money laundering, black market trades or siphoning funds to unwanted parties. All of this will keep Bitcoin long-time hodlers to keep hodling. The increase of regulation and the restriction of freedom simply creates incentives for hodling and buying, not selling. In short: Regulation adds value and demand to Bitcoin, not the opposite. Tether: Tether have always been under suspicion of minting more of their virtual currency without real USD cover. They were subpoenaed before and they are always in danger of an SEC crackdown. If an SEC crackdown or any kind of government legal action does occur, the value of Tether currency will fall to the ground. Why? Because people will be selling. And how do you sell Tether? There is no other way except buying Bitcoin or some altcoin with your Tether, which means that all the market cap of Tether will move towards the crypto market, and mostly to Bitcoin of course. In short: Tether crashing will cause a huge rise in the price of Bitcoin, not a crash. Summary of Fundamental Analysis: Bitcoin will remain volatile even after adoption by institutions. Bitcoin is long-term going up, not down. The Short-term Bearish Swing: I expect Bitcoin to retest the Dec 2017 high of around $20k. The sooner it happens the better, because we won't need to worry about it afterwards. I've drawn a path that delineates one point of resistance and three points of support. I drew it a few hours ago when Bitcoin was still at $34870. So far, it has gone up following my path. I know that doesn't count, but if the rest of the path doesn't work, then I hope I can get credit for the first few hours of it XD. Keep watching my updates on this idea as I adjust my short-term view as Bitcoin proves me wrong short-term. And let's hope in the next few hours, it does respect my resistance point. What I'm sure of is that Bitcoin will be volatile, there will be many false breakouts and bull traps, and that $20k is not too low for it to hit in the coming month. What you should do in this case is buy the dips and hold. There are two methods of setting up orders on expected points of support. Say we have three points of support where we expect to catch a dip. The first method is equal division, i.e. to divide the capital you are willing to invest into three equal portions, and buy with each portion as price hits your dip target. The second method, which I favor, is bigger orders as you go lower. This way, you don't miss a buy if it turns out that a higher support was the reversal point, and at the same time, if it does reach your expected bottom, then your average buying price is affected the most by the bottommost buy lowering it more than when using the first method. Summary: Dollar-cost-average, Hodl, and stay safe :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TechNerdOmar
4
EURUSD ShortLooking at a potential 1:55 short on EURUSD, my bias is relevant to DXY. Expecting retracement on Monday to clear up Thursday/Friday liquidity. My POI is based off of a BTS that needs mitigating, as it has taken out EQH's and left and IMB after it which is all signs of Smart Money. The market has left some EQH's to be taken out on the way to the POI, with IMB's on price above it also. Giving me extra conformation that we will see the market expand upwards. I will be risking 1% on on the entry given, but also 1% on LTF entry.
Short
by ZakRafiq0705
19
EURUSD Short 2:1 RRThe Euro demolished the Dollar for the back half of 2020 and retrace to some level makes sense. The market seems to have exhausted some buyers which is evident on lower highs and the failure to squeeze sellers from 1.2347. The dollar may continue to weaken in the coming months, however there is definitely a correction due. Based on analysis I see smart money attempting to use sell stops at or below 1.2121 from any longs to try and flick the domino and send price back down to 1.2029 where the December move began. Expect for 1.2012 to be choppy if it drops to that price.
Short
by crawfordpaul
1
$BSV Correction - It's Usually the 70.5% - Institutional TradingI normally wouldn't try to make a call on something like BSVUSD. But when the bearish order block just happens to align perfectly with the 70.5% retracement level, I have to say something about it. So don't get too excited, don't get the FOMO. Wait patiently for the correction to hit between 217 and 207 and that's when I would likely be entering the market. If it's institutional Money in the room they always give themselves a second chance at entering the market at a discounted price. and 70.5 is almost always the "go-to" discount. It also made near equal highs to the previous spike/swing high in 2020 of 325. (Chart here) Meaning when it reaches that point again there will be a lot of market liquidity, people shorting it or buy stops trying to run through it. It will run through it but only slightly to take out the shorters. Then a pull back just enough to take those that were putting in buy stops, expecting the bounce at the high, and it will go lower to take those retail traders out. Until we eventually hit another bullish order block and see the bull market continue. It will be funky, so be careful and know when to enter. Be dillligent as this evolves. Hopefully, this brings some insight into this price action. Be diligent and pay attention. Especially if you have an exchange that doesn't allow limit orders like Coinbase. Good Luck and Good Trading
BLong
by BodiesXWix
$ETH - Institutional Trading In CryptoEthereum may be gassing out due to exhaustion. However, it may just be searching for liquidity which it will find just under the receent equal lows about at the 150% extension of the current High and recent low/drop. I suspect it may come back up as a fake out and fall short of the high due to the bearish order block. There's a pretty significant trendline which will bring a lot of Liquidity in the market, I would expect it to sell through that and then below the equal lows as already noted above. After that, I still have a Bullish outlook on ETH. Just be careful of the drop and have some buy limits set to enter that the best time. Good Luck and Good Trading.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
1